Mini 659: The Neighborhood- Game over on Day 6

[crywolf20084]

@Yhtill's and Bionic's question: I protected Rash again. It was between him and Fhq. I felt that his day play in D2 was even better than it was on D1. I don't like protecting somebody two nights in a row, but I made an exception because the way that Rash has posed his questions have never given me the inkling of worry about his allignment. And as a note, I'm surpirsed I was NKed because of my claim.

@Rash: You're last statement worries me, though. I don't know what you're trying to get at.

As for the Popcorn thing, I'll agree to it if everybody else does.

[gorckat]

***When opening the thread today, half asleep and in a hurry to get to work, I forgot that I had set out 2 week deadlines for Days 3 and later in the game rules.

With the reduced number of players at this point, I believe 2 weeks will yield a more satisfying game experience.

I have amended the deadline in the title and first post. Any concerns, shoot me a PM.***

[Rashiminos]

I protected Rash again. I felt that his day play in D2 was even better than it was on D1.

I don't find this to be credible. Anyone paying attention to the prods and my day 2 commentary knew there was a period that I was out of touch with the game. Since there were 2 deaths, neither of which practiced medicine, I'm leaning with cynicism that someone is a quack.\

As for my sell, hold, buy lists... you should be able to figure out what's going on. If not, start re-reading the game thread posthaste, and go slower this time.

[Rashiminos]

EBWOP: Waiting on someone's commentary before making my mind up on the popcorn...

[Ythill]

Yeah, I'm game for the massclaim. There are many benefits for us, fewer for the scum.

I was considering the suggestion that we do flavor-only first, to test wolf's claim before fully outing our power, but I don't know that it is wise with a two week deadline.

[fhqwhgads]

Massclaim is fine with me.

I'm less inclined to believe crywolf today. Her list of protectees makes no sense. To me anyway. Darox's death is unfortunate, but at least we can rest that argument. What really gets me though, is that I firmly believe that no lynch is more advantageous to scum than to town; yet darox was standing at L-1 long enough.

I'm, for now, looking at all the people not dropping the hammer as suspicious. They cost us information. Sure, Darox was killed, butI believe by a protown role, as darox-town would have been a great scapegoat today for scum. This means that we would still have had more information today with a Darox lynch.

The hesitation of others to drop the Darox hammer also makes me less suspicious of tony for now. I'll be watching you closely.

[Oman]

Popcorn is the best idea. But is massclaim at this point...Oh wait let me run the numbers.



Yep! Popcorn.

[TonyMontana]

- I am not sure if a retired cop is the same as a cop. If so, then we lynch Tony. I tried to follow Darox assuming he had investigated Tony at the beginning of the day, but he outright denied any form of soft claim, so I dropped that thought.

Retired cop is a deputy with knowledge of his role according to the wiki. He was just vanilla.

It's never LyLo with mutiple killers.

[Rashiminos]

My reasons for massclaim are out weighing those against, so pop the corn.

@fhq

Four days ago in my re-reading I found the case on Darox to be fundamentally bankrupt. I did not drop the hammer because the arguments were awful.

[Ythill]

Since it looks like we're going ahead with this, I'll share some private information not related to my role.

Tommy/peg's role "neighbor" was actually stated to me as "nosy neighbor." His power was that he could select a player N1 and send that player a note via the mod. Starting D2, he and that player were allowed to converse at night. I know this because Tommy selected me. The only info shared by Peg was that he found Tony to be obv-scum. I do not agree with his read but I figure he'd want me to share it.

Don't know how this info can help us, but I don't see how it can harm us at this point either.

Waiting on the popcorn... wolf is supposed to start it, yes? Remember to say whether or not your role PM mentions places other than the Neighborhood.

[Ythill]

...just reread Tommy's note. The only information he shared was: now that he knew he was wrong about Lowell, he was convinced that Darox was scum. Totally irrelevant but hey... full disclosure.

[TonyMontana]

Ah, so he could only use the ability once? I was severely confused by the wiki entry, makes so much more sense now..

[Oman]

Does this make Ythill more town or scum in anyones eyes?

[M4yhem]

Makes no difference. Tommy could've picked scum to talk with by accident and the information disclosed by Ythill is not detrimental to the scum team.

Still waitin' on the mass claim.

Why you still voting, Oman? Not afraid of a quicklynch?

[Rashiminos]

Does this make Ythill more town or scum in anyones eyes?

Probably somewhat scummier, it's a relation among PEG (dead pro-town), Ythill, and a lynch target yesterday. It's more of a knee-jerk reaction than something I credit.

[bionicchop2]

hungry for some popcorn

[Ythill]

Probably somewhat scummier...

Rash, seriously, what's your deal with me? All of your reasons for suspecting me are based on very assumptive tells. Now, I do see those same types of assumptive tells in your D2 case against Tony so I know it's part of your persona, but at least there's enough of them against him that I can see how your perception was colored.

I'm pretty sure you're town, so I'm not trying to say you're being disingenuous, but I think you need to take a second look at your suspicions.

And where the hell is wolf? Stalling the popcorn is seriously anti-town considering the deadline.

[Rashiminos]

How are they assumptive?

I haven't heard why.

[Oman]

Does this make Ythill more town or scum in anyones eyes?

Probably somewhat scummier, it's a relation among PEG (dead pro-town), Ythill, and a lynch target yesterday. It's more of a knee-jerk reaction than something I credit.

I had the same reaction.

[Ythill]

How are they assumptive?

You certainly have. I've explained my reasoning in each case except this last one. I didn't actually use the word "assumptive" because it's obvious that a tell is assumptive when both town and scum motivations exist for an action and you stick to the scummier possibility.

Let's take, for instance, my call for a partial-flavor claim yesterday. I think it was a damn good idea. I still think it's a good idea and will certainly consider the info after our popcorn. You think it was likely to bring us to a false conclusion while providing too much info to the scum. Our disagreement is a difference in our views of theory and strategy.

However, you started out by immediately assuming that I see the game the same way you do and therefore I must be scum seeking the scum-advantages you believe exist in such a play. You did this even though a number of people seemed to see things my way and nobody explicitly agreed with your view.

You know, maybe you're right about the play itself. I don't think so. But, no matter who is right, the disagreement says nothing about my alignment. It only seems to because of your own assumptions.

Does that answer your question or do I need to touch on more examples?

Does this make Ythill more town or scum in anyones eyes?

Probably somewhat scummier, it's a relation among PEG (dead pro-town), Ythill, and a lynch target yesterday. It's more of a knee-jerk reaction than something I credit.

I had the same reaction.

I guess I will have to address this directly.

I can't seem scummier due to Tommy selecting me as his mason buddy, because that was his choice. If anything, it demonstrates that he probably thought I was town. I can't seem scummier from what Tommy and Peg said to me, because those were their thoughts. It's pro-town to share all information that will not hurt the town, so me sharing what I know can't be scummy.

Rash even said I was suspicious for playing something close to my chest earlier. So I am scummy for keeping secrets and scummy for not keeping secrets?

You have no reason to believe that I lied about being Tommy's choice, because nobody else has claimed that he picked them. You have no reason to believe that I am lying about what they said. I mean, look back at their actions: it's pretty obvious that I was sharing their actual opinions.

So what about this says anything about my alignment? Nothing.

Hell, the only reason I even brought up the info is because I thought a deeper understanding of the setup might assist y'all in separating the truth from the bullshit once the claims are out.

[Ythill]

EBWOP: Messed up the first quote. My opening line would make more sense if I'd have quoted all of #742, which I meant to.

[Rashiminos]

You certainly have. I've explained my reasoning in each case except this last one. I didn't actually use the word "assumptive" because it's obvious that a tell is assumptive when both town and scum motivations exist for an action and you stick to the scummier possibility.

You can't borrow from my play book without knowing how to execute it. As for when both sets of motivations exist, you must provide explanation for why one set is more likely than the other, especially with additional evidence. Questioning you is fruitless. Perhaps some analysis in a later post when I have time.

Let's take, for instance, my call for a partial-flavor claim yesterday. I think it was a damn good idea. I still think it's a good idea and will certainly consider the info after our popcorn. You think it was likely to bring us to a false conclusion while providing too much info to the scum. Our disagreement is a difference in our views of theory and strategy.

Our disagreement is over the premise with which you called for the partial flavor claim yesterday. It is flawed because it's metagaming the mod. Flawed premises lead to bad logic.

You did this even though a number of people seemed to see things my way and nobody explicitly agreed with your view.

Tony told you to drop it in post 654.

You know, maybe you're right about the play itself. I don't think so. But, no matter who is right, the disagreement says nothing about my alignment. It only seems to because of your own assumptions.

The "not from town" flavor to scum relation is not proven. Basing a lynch on it is risky business. There is far more reliable material out there. Disagree at your peril.

Does that answer your question or do I need to touch on more examples?

Feel free to continue trying to discredit me and failing to answer my questions.

Does this make Ythill more town or scum in anyones eyes?

Probably somewhat scummier, it's a relation among PEG (dead pro-town), Ythill, and a lynch target yesterday. It's more of a knee-jerk reaction than something I credit.

I had the same reaction.

I can't seem scummier due to Tommy selecting me as his mason buddy, because that was his choice.

I don't recall suggesting that.

]If anything, it demonstrates that he probably thought I was town.

He

thought

being the operative words. Probably so...

I can't seem scummier from what Tommy and Peg said to me, because those were their thoughts. It's pro-town to share all information that will not hurt the town, so me sharing what I know can't be scummy.

Those were their thoughts according to

you

. I've been intrigued by your peculiar notion of mentioning the existence of town-hurting info that you choose not to share. It's an odd phrasing, but so be it.

Rash even said I was suspicious for playing something close to my chest earlier. So I am scummy for keeping secrets and scummy for not keeping secrets?

I did suspect you for withholding information. The fact that you decided to reveal the messages from Tommy/PEG have nothing to do with my knee-jerk reaction on it. The important words to note are "dead" and "lynch target." Infer properly please.

You have no reason to believe that I lied about being Tommy's choice, because nobody else has claimed that he picked them. You have no reason to believe that I am lying about what they said. I mean, look back at their actions: it's pretty obvious that I was sharing their actual opinions.

I don't have a reason to believe you are not Tommy's choice, nor did I suggest that I did. You could be lying about the contents of the notes, but not necessarily. What's obvious to you is not necessarily so obvious to others.

So what about this says anything about my alignment? Nothing.

The above imagined arguments against you were neither stated nor implied by me.

Hell, the only reason I even brought up the info is because I thought a deeper understanding of the setup might assist y'all in separating the truth from the bullshit once the claims are out.

It may be. We had a miller and a neighbor. There's a confirmed second killer, and possibly a doc. Who knows what may be unearthed underneath the kernels?

***

Crywolf, bring the Orville Redenbacher

[Ythill]

..when both sets of motivations exist, you must provide explanation for why one set is more likely than the other...

I must provide no such thing. It is not a defendant's place to argue liklihood. I can only explain what I have actually done and why I have done it. As persecutor, it is your place to convince others that your theories are more plausible than my explanations.

But when I say that your suspicions are assumptive, I am not speaking only of your arguments, but also of the perceptions they are based on.

Our disagreement is over the premise with which you called for the partial flavor claim yesterday. It is flawed because it's metagaming the mod.

It is more an exercise in human nature and statistics than metagaming. We have a few possible scenarios. The least likely, I believe, is that we have stumbled upon and voted to claim the one player who is from out of town, who just happens to be the doc. Was the claim plan 100% sure-fire? No. But the lilihood of getting a unanimous "I'm from town" and still mislynching the doc was small enough to be worth the risk.

"dead" and "lynch target."

I don't see how these words explain your reaction. A dead townie said to me that the guy he was voting for was his prefered target. I didn't make him suspect Tony, I didn't make him tell me, I didn't make it up. I don't even agree with him. How does any of this reflect on my alignment?

What's obvious to you is not necessarily so obvious to others

Which is why I suggested rereading. We know Peg was town and we all can see who he voted at the end of the day, so I think it's pretty obvious that he suspected Tony. Like I said, my main reason for bringing this whole subject up was to give the info about Peg's role. Sharing what I'd learned at night was simply full disclosure.

The above imagined arguments against you were neither stated nor implied by me.

I never intended to suggest that they were. What I meant to do was to answer the two-player "knee-jerk" with a broad argument since no specific accusation was made. I wasn't going to address it at all until it was QFTed.

[Rashiminos]

I must provide no such thing. It is not a defendant's place to argue liklihood. I can only explain what I have actually done and why I have done it. As persecutor, it is your place to convince others that your theories are more plausible than my explanations.

I have. As I have also been repeatedly saying, you had not (with your arguments against crywolf).

But when I say that your suspicions are assumptive, I am not speaking only of your arguments, but also of the perceptions they are based on.

When I saw you ask for "who's not from town," I saw a couple of possibilities:

A) Someone else is not from town. It is possible here that a scum would not out himself/herself when someone is making the case that "not from town" means scum. So this additional person is possibly town, which invalidates your argument that the original "not from town" person is more likely to be scum.

B) No one else is not from town. Crywolf's flavor is unique as far as we know. Still does not answer the scum/doc question. It just makes a convenient excuse for you to push the "she's a fakeclaiming liar" under the guise that you think you know what the setup is..

In case B, the result is a wash so far. In case A, there's some additional information revealed about someone else's role. A plausible alternative hypothesis, at the time your proposed the question, was that "not from town" could be linked to power roles in general. Case A could lead to scum getting damaging information and hurting the town. Thus, asking who's "not from town" is scummy overall.

Our disagreement is over the premise with which you called for the partial flavor claim yesterday. It is flawed because it's metagaming the mod.

It is more an exercise in human nature and statistics than metagaming. We have a few possible scenarios. The least likely, I believe, is that we have stumbled upon and voted to claim the one player who is from out of town, who just happens to be the doc. Was the claim plan 100% sure-fire? No. But the lilihood of getting a unanimous "I'm from town" and still mislynching the doc was small enough to be worth the risk.

It's a sign that you WIFOMed yourself into believing something about the setup which is not necessarily true. Crywolf not being from town does not imply she is more likely to be scum than doc. As long as you continue holding this point, you'll still be at the top of my list, Ytscum.

I don't see how these words explain your reaction. A dead townie said to me that the guy he was voting for was his prefered target. I didn't make him suspect Tony, I didn't make him tell me, I didn't make it up. I don't even agree with him. How does any of this reflect on my alignment?

PEG talks to

you

about Tony, and winds up dead. I said there's a relation among PEG, you, and Tony. It's not a reasoned argument as much as a gut feeling.

What's obvious to you is not necessarily so obvious to others

Which is why I suggested rereading. We know Peg was town and we all can see who he voted at the end of the day, so I think it's pretty obvious that he suspected Tony. Like I said, my main reason for bringing this whole subject up was to give the info about Peg's role. Sharing what I'd learned at night was simply full disclosure.

Imagine for a moment that the rest of us think you could be either scum or town. Is there a way a possible scum Ythill could still repeat this info, or just make stuff up? I think so. Does this sharing of info mean Ythill is scum, not necessarily.

The above imagined arguments against you were neither stated nor implied by me.

I never intended to suggest that they were. What I meant to do was to answer the two-player "knee-jerk" with a broad argument since no specific accusation was made. I wasn't going to address it at all until it was QFTed.

I'm not sure what your defending against phantom arguments signifies, but I suggest you have some re-reading of the game to do.

[Rashiminos]

EBWOP:

I have the salt and butter, but no popcorn.