mini theme 2229: MBOS 13 schweppes' pulpy potions daya 5

[Datisi]

like literally t3 why is my slot scum

you jumped at retti being an ass and latched onto that being scum!indicative like dude pls you're not that bad

[NorwegianboyEE]

I would probably think you were townie if you voted RCE or Aristeia.

An promise Datisi

[T3]

I don't know how to say this to your face Datisi... but you're scum.

and again with the nonsense shitpush wee

Yes
pedit: no retti just had bad reads

[Datisi]

unless rce absolutely blows my mind with *something*, i will most likely be voting there before deadline

not right now because i'm pretending to still be sorting ari's vote on you or something but we have time

[Dwlee99]

I'm not voting RCE cause I want to see what Dats and Mastina do

[T3]

imagine thinking mastina is scum

[NorwegianboyEE]

If lim RCE= poison Aristeia.
If lim Aristeia= Poison RCE

[T3]

vote ari or rce pleas

[Aristeia]

Dwlee was never at risk. They never got more than two votes. T3 was never at risk. He never got more than two votes. Norwee was never at risk. He never had a lasting wagon.

They're not at risk because they've killed the people who were suspecting them by voting them off.

Pretty sure this is a fallacy. I don't remember which, might be some form of circular logic? But I'm pretty sure this doesn't work as an argument because it doesn't explain the actions that have happened, building a narrative that builds off itself without intersection with the actual facts of the game.

If you can't see the incentive for the scum to kill the people who are suspecting them and leaving townies alive who suspect other townies then you frankly don't know how to play mafia as scum.

Oh I can see the incentive for scum to

kill

people who suspect them.

But Titus wasn't KILLED.

She was

eliminated

.

The incentive/logical train for scum to HOPE for a plurality elimination on Titus that they ALL dogpiled onto?

Now THAT is something I can't really see the incentive behind scum doing.

How is this circular logic?

Titus suspected them

They voted Titus

Titus is dead.

Now they don't have to worry about Titus voting for them anymore because

Titus is dead

You say you can't see the scum motivation for getting rid of people who suspect you.

I don't know how to explain it any simpler for you.

If I am scum, I always try to get rid of people who suspect me, because then they won't be voting for me at the end.

[Aristeia]

This is a psuedo-nightless game.

There is very little difference between voting someone out and nightkilling them.

In fact it would probably look way worse if they nightkilled her with their pain potions because if someone uses harmography on her, they are basically caught scum.

They did it in broad daylight, they killed Titus, she died screaming that they were scum.

And this town is still like "looks fine"

They are getting away with murder in broad daylight

[Aristeia]

the goal of the scum is to vote out townies who suspect them

Is it?

The goal of scum is to not get voted out and to vote out town, sure.

But most scum I know don't dogpile onto one town player in order to remove a town player suspicious of them.

Scum usually avoid voting together and scum and scum usually aren't going to take a 1v1 that they have a 50% chance of losing, especially if even if they win they then lose the next day.

I realize it's not

impossible

--Norwee DID try to 1v1 me in Open Draft Mafia when he was scum there. (Tho critically, that did not work for him.) But for your theory to be true for this game, it'd have to have not JUST been Norwee opting into this strategy; it'd have to be the entire scumteam doing so. And each member you add to being onboard with that strategy increases the unlikelihood of it being something that'd happen.

That, aside from how when I've been catching whiffs of that area of the game it doesn't even look like a coordinated assault.

Admittedly, I've not had the chance to read all the pages in context. But I DO have to call it as I see it. And as I see it, the narrative you're weaving is a narrative. It requires the scumteam to make very very specific actions that while they are

possible

from the scum players in question, require a very very very specific chain of

possible

action after

possible

action after POSSIBLE action, ignoring the probable actions, the simpler actions, the actions that fit better, etc.

Your narrative is never impossible. I will give you that. Nothing in it cannot be true. But everything you're trying to sell requires one specific unlikely improbable chain of events one after another to have happened where we live in what amounts to a one in a thousand universe where every stretch of an action happened to have been the one taken.

It requires the scum team to want to get rid of the person scumreading them.

It requires the scum team to decide they can take the risk because they can get away with it.

They are getting away with it right now since you're about to vote me out and hand them the game win on a platter.

Why would scum!them decide not to take the easy win?

[Aristeia]

The world NorwegianBoy is selling you is that I'm scum with RCE/Datisi and both of my scum partners have decided to ghost the game and stop playing while I am the lone scum still talking.

Do you really think a scum team at Elo that has skated through and is on the verge of winning would look like that?

Yes?

Why wouldn't they? If they weren't high-effort pre-lylo, why would most of them be efforting IN lylo?

It doesn't require rocket science for the game to have low-effort scum that mostly did nothing until lylo and mostly continue to do nothing in lylo. That's not some occam's razor violation requiring a complex gamestate. That's literally 70-90% of games onsite right now in the meta. Most scum players just don't give a shit. They get away with not giving a shit in the earlygame because often the town self-destructs to some extent and vote out town and suspect other town. But they continue to not give a shit after the town begins to get their shit together.

That's not some stretch of me to think it the case this game. That's not something which would be highly unique to this game. That's literally the state of mafiascum players who're mafia. They do almost nothing, towns suspect town early on, and then either the town self-destructs and hand the scum a win, or the town gets their shit together and eliminate the scum. This game being that? Not some anomaly. Not a statistical weirdness. Not some form of weird thing that is a freak occurrence. It'd literally be just another mafiascum game with that trend.

You know what WOULD be an anomaly?

If all three of the slots with the highest activity in the game, if the three slots with the highest post count, ALL were scum.

When was the last time you saw a game where literally the top three posters were ALL scum?

When was the last time you saw a game where the three slots that have contributed the most to the game, have efforted the hardest, have been the most active, most involved, were ALL scum?

It's happened before in mafiascum's history I'm sure--but it is very very very very very rare.

And you're asking me to believe in what amounts to a statistical anomaly. In what amounts to a freak occurrence. In a scumteam randomly for no real reason who could get by on coasting to an easy victory as town destroyed itself, deciding to actively force the town loss quickly.

So to answer which story feels more real?

The one backed by the evidence I see and which fits with the site meta.
Rather than the one which requires possibility after possibility after possibility which isn't in the site meta at all.

If you want to just assume the scum team is "low effort" and the town team is "high effort" why do you even sign up for games?

why even read anything?

just open up the post counter and vote whoever has the least posts.

Meta is imperfect.

I'm sure you could win lots of games by blindly following meta.

How's that been working out for you this game?

Do you see a single flipped bad guy in the graveyard?

[Dwlee99]

How do you think I'm scum with Norwee/t3 when this entire day phase is them trying to convince me they're town

[Aristeia]

You’re also not acknowledging that Mastina townreads me with 95% certainty here.
Are you not going to respect the fact that you claim to believe they are town, yet is misreading me so badly?

Look at what NorwegianBoy says about you ^

He tells me that because you are reading him as town with 95% certainty, then I should respect your town-read of him because you're supposedly infallible?

Does that make sense to you Mastina?

[Aristeia]

How do you think I'm scum with Norwee/t3 when this entire day phase is them trying to convince me they're town

Words mean nothing to me. Managing dis-associatives is mafia 101 and it would be frankly insulting to any player to say that "____ can't be scum because they said ___ to ___"

Only Votes that actually end up killing people actually mean something in this game to me.

Or vigging a scumbag at night with a pain potion.

Everything else can just be theatre.

Also it's completely irrelevant to me to figure out who the third scum on the norwe/t3 team is because if I can't get norwe flipped the game is over so there's no point for me to put any energy into it.

[Aristeia]

all it requires is for him to have pocketed you - which he did by insisting over and over again that you were locktown town.

You keep saying this, and yet this takes facts from D3 that Norwee would have no way of knowing prior to D3.

That aside from the fact that Norwee locktowning me has absolutely 0% to do with my read on his slot.

I can tell you right now any argument that relies on "Norwee pocketed you by locktowning you" is instantly not going to be convincing to me because I give zero fucks about Norwee townreading me. The fact that RCE townreads me but ISN'T someone that has pocketed me should be proof enough of that. Norwee is someone who looks unlikely to be scum for a plethora of things--all of which came prior to D3 and were entirely unrelated to me.

Nothing Norwee has done or said in relationship to me, in regards to me, has effected my read on him at all--if you think it has, sorry to say, you're wrong and any argument you attempt to make to that effect WILL fall on deaf ears as I know it to not be true.

It's entirely Norwee's content

unrelated

to me that I see as unlikely to be scum. And that content was not aimed at me at all.

You are literally pocketed right now.

That's not something that's insane

That's just a fact.

I am showing you a video of NorwegianBoy murdering the people who suspected him by voting them off the Island and them swearing that this town will lose because NorwegianBoy is scum and you are staring at me with a straight face and saying that you

can't

see the scum motivation for Norwe to vote them off.

You could not possibly be more pocketed.

[Aristeia]

Use logic that is based in facts and probabilities rather than a narrative that relies on possibility after possibility and address the questions/points I'm raising, is all I can really offer.

FACT: Titus suspected Norwee/T3/Dwlee.
FACT: Titus was voted out by Norwee/T3/Dwlee.
FACT: Titus was town.

FACT: Limit suspected Norwee/T3/Datisi
FACT: Limit was voted out by Norwee/T3/Datisi
FACT: Limit was town.

LOGIC: When you kill people who suspect you by voting them out, there are

fewer

people who suspect you later, this allows you to win the game.
FACT: Scum like to win.
FACT: Only me/RCE are voting for Norwee, everyone else is against it currently BECAUSE the people who would've been on our side were all killed via vote.
LOGIC: Scum have a motivation to vote out people who suspect them because it makes endgame much much easier for them.

[Aristeia]

Mastina,

There are many ways to play scum.

Your preferred method of playing scum is to not rock the boat, try to hide, be passive, set up your teammates by putting your scum partners in your lower reads etc.

You believe this will help them look

better

when you flip scum and you end up flipping scum very early.

It's actually very predictable and one reason you were caught very early in:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=86449

and

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=85923

Your scumteam in both games ended up collapsing and getting run over because they never had thread control and the more dominant townside simply overran them by stringing elim after elim through.

Scum were caught early, caught often, and went down very quickly.

That is what a highly active town team in control of the thread looks like.

Look at this game's graveyard.

Do you see a single flipped scum?

That is a giant flashing neon sign that the people in control of the thread are NOT the town.

The

best

way to play scum is to be bold, to be brazen, to take control of the thread and kill town over and over until they don't have any room to breathe

The scum team is on the verge of winning this game.

Me/RCE have no thread control whatsoever.

5/7 players are not on our side.

You can continue to believe in your meta about a weak and lame scum team but look at the actual facts. Look at the flips.

If you don't change course now, town loses this game.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Also it's completely irrelevant to me to figure out who the third scum on the norwe/t3 team is because if I can't get norwe flipped the game is over so there's no point for me to put any energy into it.

What an bad excuse.

[NorwegianboyEE]

It’s not irrelevant. It’s in fact, pretty damn fundamental to your case if you want to get me mislimmed here.

[NorwegianboyEE]

It needs to actually be… you know, plausible.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I’m literally telling you how to do it, and you still can’t.

[Aristeia]

I said I am unsure about #3.

It is not relevant to the events of today.

If you eliminate me the game is over.

If I eliminate you, T3 dies the next day and we have plenty of time to find #3.

Unlike you I don't lie about having a complete solution when I do not have one.

[NorwegianboyEE]

At least i don't talk.

Like this.

It feels very strange,

To constantly like this.

[Aristeia]

You’re also not acknowledging that Mastina townreads me with 95% certainty here.
Are you not going to respect the fact that you claim to believe they are town, yet is misreading me so badly?

If you believe in Mastina's townread so much, how come you didn't listen to her about Titus?