Open 823 - To Tell The Truth | Game Over

[Zyla]

Unless goats is the ballsiest scum ever.

Is this about being put in the "truth" set two days in a row? Because, honestly, I could see reason for that whether or not goats is town

VOTE: zyal

xD is my name really

that

hard??

[T3]

Oh I was under the assumption there were 3 scum lol
UNVOTE: zyle

[goats]

my strongest wolf read is still imaginality

[ArcAngel9]

What is going on.....

Goats is not scum.
I am not clearing NM yet but he is likely town.

T3, hope you're not fooling around.

I am prepared for zyla or imaging to eliminate today.

[imaginality]

My take on all this is... Goats is scum.

I was thinking about this point during the night: Goats is definitely confident enough to have put up a scum-scum target N2, sacrificing Kop to protect their other scumbuddy from having to be targeted. (Note that, I believe, this implies their other scumbuddy is T3 or Zyla.)

And looking at the targets this morning, goats-scum still makes sense to me. There was a 1/6 chance of me returning a guilty, so the guilty-guilty scenario (which would likely have seen me elimmed then goat the next day) was pretty unlikely. Whereas the 1/3 chance of goats getting a random inno would look great for them being able to coast to endgame.

Meanwhile in the 1/2 chance of a goats guilty, me inno result, I think goats is so townread they could argue away a guilty on them as being a random guilty. If that had been the result, they'd also have to call me conftown but they'd be okay with that since I've only townread them all game. They'd probably see me as likely to vote anyone else ahead of them in any x-lo 1v1 scenario.

In this goats-scum scenario, think if Zyla or T3 were targeted (whichever is scum) and returned a guilty they'd be under a lot of pressure. And I think they didn't want to target whoever is town among those two because they need to keep that person as a good mis-elim since they can only mis-elim one of Arc-NM at most. And there'd be a 5/6 chance of an inno on that person.

Ultimately, I just have a strong hunch that scum this game is being smart and bussing Kop in a town-scum target pairing seems too obvious. (while hoping to save Kop with an inno would be dumb.)

Going with a scum-scum pairing, that's sneaky.

Okay, so I'm making a hard case pushing for goats here. What if I'm wrong about goats? In that case, while T3 and Zyla is possible as a pairing, I don't think Zyla votes T3 today or gives me townpoints. And in that scenario, {Arc, NM} are town and I'd think scum try harder to get one of the two town innos (Arc and NM) mis-eliminated earlier, and also likely target them rather than goats and me.

So if I'm wrong about goats being scum, I am pretty sure it's one of {Zyla, T3} and one of {Arc, NM}.

[imaginality]

I was going to instant vote this anyways, actually smart of wolves to put both of us in the checks, but there is now a guarantee of 1 wolf between myself and Kop even without the vote. I will case every single wolf in this game, as I have been, if any townies have doubt, but how this day realistically should play out is simply hammering Kop as soon as what... 4 people show up into thread?

As I mentioned this attempt to rush the day is bad, like, even aside from the points I made yesterday, for the sake of argument if Kop was 100% known scum you could still use some time to dig into whoever you saw as his potential scumbuddies.

At least... this... ridiculous read is pretty towny cause every wolf is ready to bus Kop cause LMAO

Projection.

Was this literally just done to troll me by doing my top 2 townreads

are you actually town reading Kop? Are you really? Have you read his posts? Have you read his predecessors posts?

if you're town, Imaginality, I'll re-consider you tomorrow

I obviously dislike the Hockey wagon, but

I also believe that wolves would be more interested in bussing Kop than to stack 3 people onto Hockey

I'll think about it

But I'm alright proceeding this with a NM, maybe Arc, elim. I'd need to consider Zyla, I haven't read their progression on the Hocket vote, and I disliked their lack of engagement with what I cased before

The bolded seems like something town wouldn't say, my gut says this is more likely coming from scum trying to keep town onside.

The italicised part is more projection.

The rest of this post is literally calling everyone scum but T3.

Scum goats has no reason to locktown me so early.

Scum goats who knows they're super hard to eliminate and who holds quite a bit of sway in the discussions, has reason to locktown you if you're their buddy. I don't think scum can risk their buddy getting eliminated now they're down to 2.

I consider this post a town slip btw

"Oh wait it's elo"

So I'm still town reading T3

This is an extremely weak reason for a town read.

my strongest wolf read is still imaginality

More on this tomorrow (NZ time).

I'm going to back myself with this goats-T3 read. This feels like the last game I was in (Owner's Market Blitz) - that game the watcher guilty smelt fake. This time the 'only one scum in {goats, Kop} assumption' smells fake.

VOTE: goats

[imaginality]

Some brief points from my goats iso:

#127 interesting the first time goats starts expressing suspicion of me is when I'm pressing T3 on something
#241-242 says maybe they should rescind their townread on T3 then 'eh let me think about it', could be trying to walk the line of not getting tied to T3 while also not giving town reasons to wagon T3
#253 calls my posts towny
#313 is trying to tie me to Meg which makes sense if they were already planning to bus Meg
#316 could be trying to tie me to NM (if goats is scum and T3 isn't scum, NM is the likeliest other scummbuddy for goats)
#361 calls T3 prob town
#408 this reads a tad exaggerated for effect, also reinforces my thought above that if it's not goats-T3 it's goats-NM
#411 criticism of T3 here looks like distancing
#419 I ask T3 a question but goats jumps in and answers for him

Overall I think this fits with my theory. I wasn't expecting to find anything super damning because goats is a good player, but there is enough here for me to feel I'm on the right track.

[goats]

lol

[goats]

Meg town I think.

meh

catching up on everything they did and only having 1 thing to contribute isn't inspiring to me

Checked back just in time I guess, sorry for the trouble mod, will read up and post in a few min.

VOTE: imaginality

Their interactions with T3 give off a weird vibe to me.

Won't say.

VOTE: T3

This 'I have a read but I won't tell you it yet' seems anti-town. Seems like keeping it unspoken means you can wait to see whether others lean cyrus:town or cyrus:scum so you can then say that's what your read was too.

This feels like a highly speculative post that essentially boils down to "T3 is being scummy if they are in the majority"
It doesn't feel like something a townie would push.

This is bad

Do you want to vote Meg?

Meg should prolly be exed

Megs day 1 was really really really bad, like not just inactivity but the only read they gave was repitition of something I had said for the most part, basically it doesn't feel original at all, and that singular thing was all they got from the entire day 1 thread? Nah bruh

past that, their world view of { Zyla, Arcangel} being the bottom of their reads is discomforting, and when I look at how off putting these wolf reads are to me my only thought is "Meg can't find the wolves because they are one"

like I'm just looking at this list from town!megs PoV and I'm not seeing three wolves, I don't know where they are

VOTE: imaginality

[Marashu]

Official Vote Count 4.01

Elimination

With 6 alive, 4 votes are required for elimination.

T3

(1): Zyla

goats

(1): imaginality

imaginality

(1): goats

Not Voting

(3): Not_Mafia, ArcAngel9, T3

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-09-06 13:07:32).

Mod notes:

[goats]

if imaginality is town you can kill tomorrow that's really all I have to say about him

[goats]

oh yeah zyla isn't with imaginality

[goats]

was kinda getting more apprehensive of her but that helps

[goats]

Alright, so, at least one of NM and AA is town, and at least one of goats and imaginality is town.
That means that most likely there's scum between me and T3
VOTE: T3

okay but here's the thing

at minimum one town between:

NM, AA

Goats, Imaginality

leaving

Zyla, T3

as you say

but... you already know there's a town between (Zyla, T3),

so really it's not that relevant of a pairing from yours or T3s perspective

I'm saying this because I actually town read you both

I believe it to be imaginality and NM

I've explained these reads before, but I'd rather not wifom with the checks

like imaginality knows I've been on him all game

Why not throw himself into a check?

In fact, he's even trying to use that against me

That makes me think it was planned

And etc

[goats]

actually I may be wrong and AA is the wolf

gonna read kop spew

it would be disappointing if NM is town because he's a wolf in everything but role pm (if that's the case)

[goats]

okay based on Megs posts and a reread of AA I think it's imaginality AA, actually I need to reread imaginalitya interactions with AA lmao

[goats]

yeah okay nothing clearing there, really not even close

[goats]

Not really feeling involved with the discussion so here's where I'm at with the game so far.
Townreads
{ goats, Hockey, Imaginality} - Imaginality gave off some weird vibes D1 with T3, but they seem to be scumhunting since, goats and Hockey have pretty reasonable with their arguements the whole game through, exception being Hockey and NM, but thats NAI at worst.
Null:
{T3, NM} T3 plays too chaotically for me to go through the headache of me figuring them out. After trying I'd put them as a townlean since they seem to be contributing positively. N_M has basically trolled the entire game but I figure that's par for the course and NAI.

{ Zyla, Arcangel} ArcAngel seems too be really confused about mechanics that have been clarified on more than one occasion, and they don't seem to be scumhunting very much. Zyla has only interacted with the Arc slot for most of the game and with cyrus. They also have chosen to disclude any game advancing content for most of their posts.

I actually don't think wolf meg gives a null read to wolf NM who is basically dead weight to any team he's on. That combined with Megs TMI you probably just put him in wolf

[goats]

Anyone else feels that MegA was replaced because he couldn't handle the scum pressure?

VOTE: HockeyFan

still being opportunist!!! SCUM!!

these two posts being consecutive is just awful

[goats]

Please vote HockeyFan
He is scum!

and yeah arc just stays on hockey for shitty reasons and doesn't move her vote at all

[goats]

Btw imaginality you're probably who played the best, if a wolf, out of anyone else in this game

unfortunately my slot randed town though

[imaginality]

Btw imaginality you're probably who played the best, if a wolf, out of anyone else in this game

unfortunately my slot randed town though

Right back at you. Super strong wolf play and I was definitely fooled into reading you as town earlier.

But come on. Acting like this is a foregone conclusion might win you rhetoric points, but it's just an attempt to get town to fall along with you. Stay cool and hope to ride through with your towny aura.

For all your seeming pro-town play making the right sorts of posts and noises, though, cyrus got eliminated and Hockey got eliminated. You weren't on those wagons but neither was I and you think I'm scum so clearly that's not proof of anything.

That leaves Kop where you piled in early and tried (and pretty much succeeded) to cut off the day without good town play or scum bussing? And it's not like I was trying to get someone else eliminated, I'd already said I'd be voting Kop.

Your speculations about who my buddy is will be useful to review when you flip scum so thanks for those.

@others what do you think of my reasoning for why goats is scum?

Saying this now: If I get elimmed, when I flip town, please reread my points and don't let goats continue to have an easy ride.

[goats]

I didn't say much about Cyrus but I don't think that's inexcusable. As for Hockey, what's the point here? You realize I probably made the most posts out of anyone day 2 and a majority of those posts were to say Meg was a wolf? That in itself is defense of Hockey, I wanted the Meg/Kop slot dead and I did more than anyone else to try and push my read there. If you're town, you have one choice atm, and that's reads my iso and see that it's pretty obviously town.

[goats]

anyways I'm bored so let me find a couple things

[goats]

outside of this I have arc/zyla as town off tone

that leaves 4 players

Cyrus, imaginality, NM, and the person who hasn't posted except once

I could be wrong on either arc or zyla (my zyla read being stronger) but I liked arcs interactions with Cyrus who I believe is a wolf

so i think arc and t3 are scum together.

VOTE: arcangel

this vote is weird but Cyrus voting Arc and their response being to omgus doesn't seem partnered

I'm not so sure about Arc tbh, some of her confusion about the setup seems almost put on to me

context prior to this Zyla post is important

I just came off writing a decent amount, and came to a 4 person PoE

I doubt wolf!zylas engagement with this is to say "actually one of the people you're kinda town reading, I'm unsure about" randomly. Zyla is decently new from what I can tell, and a newer wolfs response to my posts is to go "eek" and either ignore me or TMI me

Zyla engaged me in a decent way, and I think specifically the read she gave isn't one she would make up. Calling a towns confusion about the setup put-on is like, a few steps removed from what I'd expect from wolf Zylas reads. I don't know how to explain but it's not often wolves scum read someone for lying about setup knowledge. (Though Meg actually did this too, it was a repitition of Zylas read, making it wolfy tbh)