Mini 658 - Facedown and Thirsty Mafia (Game Over)

[ChannelDelibird]

I need to read up a bit, but I'm still here. Bear with me.

[StrangerCoug]

Will reread when I can bother myself with it.

[Kairyuu]

@Korts: Since you've asked so nicely Korts, and since not having been here while it was happening you may not have noticed from the thread, I will explain a bit better.

During D1, Iron Man was lurking. He made a few posts, and voted drake, but there was very little scumhunting going on with him, and he dropped off completely after only a week. Then, N1, there was no scum NK. I am making a bit of an assumption here in saying that it was not submitted, but it is a possibility, and the only thing I really have to go on at the moment (lurking D1+this=not exactly a good player spot for you to replace into). D2 he was, obviously, entirely absent. Not one post. Then, N2, the scum managed to kill. You replaced in during the Night, and had ample time to read over the game, or at the very least pick someone at random to kill. This could be a coincidence, but when coupled with Mr. Lurky ditching during D1, I think that lynching you is our safest bet at the moment, and best likelyhood of catching scum, as we have very little to go on about you.

It's nothing personal of course. If Malthusis had been replaced during the Night and not you, then I would be looking at his replacement for the exact same reasons that I'm looking at you. And if you had both been replaced, well then I'd be gunning for both of you (note: I think he has a better than 50% chance to be your scumbuddy).

@iamausername:

Assuming a three-man mafia, as is the usual in twelve player games, we're probably in lylo right now, but with the option of taking a no lynch first, which might be a good idea. Let's be careful, anyway.

A three man mafia plus a serial killer? Is that really the norm? If so it seems rather unbalanced towards the scum side.

Even assuming that we're at LyLo, I'm happy with my vote, because I'd say there's a rather good chance that Korts is scum. Plus, assuming what you said is correct, the scum couldn't quicklynch Korts if he was town, because I am the only vote on him at the moment.

[Korts]

Your case makes some sense, but it's speculation big time. I'd expect you as scum to be proposing this theory. Also, why are you so sure in this lynch? I don't find that kind of evidence very damning. If you remember, there are usually multiple scum in a game. Do you suppose my theoretical scumbuddies would fail to send in a kill just because Iron Man the theoretical scum was MIA? Especially since we know now that we had a doc, you think that's realistic, and not the supposition that the doc managed a save first time around?

[iamausername]

A three man mafia plus a serial killer? Is that really the norm? If so it seems rather unbalanced towards the scum side.

Not if the town has enough power to balance it out. And since we've got three dead town players, and all of them have been power roles, I think it's a fair assumption to make. And it's not like it could possibly hurt us if we expect there to be one

more

scum than there really is, right?

Plus, assuming what you said is correct, the scum couldn't quicklynch Korts if he was town, because I am the only vote on him at the moment.

This is true, two votes on a single person is the danger zone here.

Do you suppose my theoretical scumbuddies would fail to send in a kill just because Iron Man the theoretical scum was MIA?

Yeah, this is a gigantic hole in your case, Kairyuu. Unless you think the entire scumteam was AWOL night one, the lack of a mafia kill is unlikely to have been due to them not submitting one.

[Mokina]

A three man mafia plus a serial killer? Is that really the norm? If so it seems rather unbalanced towards the scum side.

Nah, the notion's that the SK will probably take down some mafia too. Even if he doesn't, the game may be balanced out by power roles alone. I'm inclined to believe that all protowns in this particular game are, considering the doctor and cop cardflips we've seen so far.

I think iamausername and Korts have the right idea.

Do you suppose my theoretical scumbuddies would fail to send in a kill just because Iron Man the theoretical scum was MIA? Especially since we know now that we had a doc, you think that's realistic, and not the supposition that the doc managed a save first time around?

Meh, could be protection from the doc or a lucky roleblocker. Far as I'm concerned, the N1 nokill isn't worth anything in a case.

The point about the replacement times is a bit of a different story. While the mafia probably wouldn't make a kill choice until all of their members were active, we can't completely rule it out. In any case, I don't think such circumstantial evidence alone implicates Iron Man.

Weak case, though it's worth thinking about.

[Kairyuu]

Simply a theory, my friends. My vote is no threat to Korts at the moment, and it's the best I can come up with right now, so I'm going to leave it right where it is until something more suspicious catched my eye. If you don't like it, then vote me.

@Korts: Everything in this game is speculation and conjecture. I understand that it would make sense to make this move as scum, but saying that, while it looks good, is WIFOM.

About my being so sure, that's just the way I play. If I can make a case, I push it. Regardless of how sure I am of the case. Regardless of how strong or weak the case is. I still push it. Know why? To get reactions, especially from my target. It's fun, and scum who think I have a crap case against them write me off. Last time I did it, my target decided to hit me with 'too townie' and serious WIFOM. He was scum. I see WIFOM and I think scum. Your WIFOM, while minor, only serves to increase my formerly rather minor suspicions of you.

@Iamausername: True. Overestimating can't hurt, but my case is based on what I thought would make sense (2 scum and serial killer), so it also can't hurt to assume 2 scum, lynch them, and then if the game doesn't end, look at the game in retrospect with 20/20 hindsight to find the third. Pessimism works in some cases, but in this case it causes unecessary confusion for the town, which can be circumvented by analyzing everyone's actions after the fact.

As for the supposed massive hole in my argument, that is a matter of what you assume about the scum team. You are assuming 3 scum, which would mean that my argument is flawed. I am assuming 2 scum, which would mean that I can be right, because as I said, I think malthusis, the other lurker, is also scum. This is a difference of opinion, and according to occam's razor, both of our arguments are valid, because we both assume 1 thing about this, and this single assumption is the reason we disagree.

@Mokina: One problem with your opening logic. If you assume that the town is entirely power roles, then the game is still overbalanced towards scum, due to one of Stoofer's Laws (not sure which one), which states that as the number of town power roles increases, the chance of scum winning also increases. This is due to the power roles conflicting and damaging each other accidentally. That is why I don't think that yellowbounder would give the scum so much of an advantage.

Your comment about my case is, as iamausername's was, is based on a difference of what is assumed. I agree that the value of the N1 no scum NK is reduced as per making a case due to DoS being a doc, but I disagree that its value is entirely removed, because my idea is still a possibility if there are two scum.

[StrangerCoug]

@Mokina: One problem with your opening logic. If you assume that the town is entirely power roles, then the game is still overbalanced towards scum, due to one of Stoofer's Laws (not sure which one), which states that as the number of town power roles increases, the chance of scum winning also increases.

This looks like Stoofer's 3rd Law.

[Korts]

Sorry, Kairyuu, what part of my post is WIFOM? If you mean the note that I'd expect Kairyuu-scum to be pushing such a weak case, I don't see how that's circular logic. Iit was just a note, but far from any kind of evidence. Kairyuu-town would probably also have fair motivation for the same thing (fishing for reactions, firing up discussion, etc).

I'm surprised there's so little discussion other than Kairyuu's case on me. Has this game come close to stalling?

[Mokina]

Has this game come close to stalling?

On a number of occasions. How do people feel about malthusis? Is he clear?

[Kairyuu]

@Korts: You answered your own question in your post. You say that if I were scum you would expect me to push the case, but you say that if I were town you would also expect me to push it. It's not specifically circular logic, but it is speculation about what a scum would do in a certain situation, which is another common definition of WIFOM.

Yours is the only decent case I can seem to make right now, because so few people seem to consider it worth their time anymore to play. No change in available information = no change in my stance, simple as that. I wish your predecessor had been more active so that I would have been able to get a better read on you, but it is only inaction that I have to go on, which in itself hurts the town.

@Mokina: Quite the opposite actually, I think him to be far from cleared, because I think him to be scum with Korts. This makes sense with my case if you assume two scum, because it explains the failure of scum to kill N1 (among other possibilities of course). At the very least, I would say that malthusis has provided us with little to no information. I really don't like that. A similar thing happened in my Newbie game, where one of the scum almost never posted and was replaced twice during D1. We had virtually no information on him, and would have had a pretty high chance of losing if we hadn't broken the game with a cop+doc confirmation combo.

@everyone: I guess that means I'm saying that I would support a policy lynch of malthusis in lieu of lynching Korts today if the rest of the town considers no information at all to be a better reason to lynch than what has been called a weak case, though I would also like some more participation and opinions from our lurkers (CDB, RandomGem, and StrangerCoug).

The only way to keep this game moving is if people stay active, because replacements are hard to come by, and we've had too many already.

[RandomGem]

I think Kairyuu's case is really thin. As has been mentioned before, DoS being revealed to be a doctor makes the lurky mafia on N1 case very thin. Also, the case pretty much hinges on 2 scum only, which I think is a unsafe assumption to make (because if it is wrong, we are in LyLo). And if we are in Lylo, then a malthusis lynch by policy would be very unwise... We should wait for his replacement at any rate.
I support a no lynch for this day. If there are 3 scum, then tomorrow we'll be at LyLo, but will have a higher probability to lynch scum. If there are 2 scum, we would still have 1 mislynch, which we would have whether or not we did no lynch or not. Also, in both cases (or if there is no night kill), town gains information from night actions.

Vote: No Lynch

On another note, why was nhat replaced? He was pretty active...

[StrangerCoug]

I support a no lynch for this day. If there are 3 scum, then tomorrow we'll be at LyLo, but will have a higher probability to lynch scum. If there are 2 scum, we would still have 1 mislynch, which we would have whether or not we did no lynch or not. Also, in both cases (or if there is no night kill), town gains information from night actions.

Vote: No Lynch

I'll follow suit based on this reasoning,

unvote

if I need to, and

vote No Lynch

. I really don't have anything solid on anybody.

On another note, why was nhat replaced? He was pretty active...

He requested a replacement in most if not all of his games. He replaced out of one of my Monopoly games too.

[Kairyuu]

Weak case this, weak case that. If you think my case is weak, then try proposing your own cases. If we don't have any discussion, then the day is a total wash, and the increased odds of finding scum tomorrow are virtually useless, because we have no new information to go off of. I'll go for the no lynch idea at some point, considering that it does actually help the town, but come

on

people. Quit sitting on your asses and scumhunt a bit before ending the day. This is pathetic.

If you don't have any theories now, then how will letting the scum kill another one of us give you a better idea?

[Mokina]

I support a no lynch for this day. If there are 3 scum, then tomorrow we'll be at LyLo, but will have a higher probability to lynch scum. If there are 2 scum, we would still have 1 mislynch, which we would have whether or not we did no lynch or not. Also, in both cases (or if there is no night kill), town gains information from night actions.
Vote: No Lynch

:goodposting:

Vote: No Lynch

[RandomGem]

@Kairyuu: But our best course for the day is to not lynch. If we start scumhunting today but default to a no lynch at the end, don't we broadcast to scum a) who is suspicious at shouldn't be night-killed or b) who is right and should be night-killed?

[Mokina]

@Kairyuu: But our best course for the day is to not lynch. If we start scumhunting today but default to a no lynch at the end, don't we broadcast to scum a) who is suspicious at shouldn't be night-killed or b) who is right and should be night-killed?

Can't agree with you here. In my experience, discussion and scumhunting are good for the town, even if they lead nowhere. Scum are much more likely to reveal themselves if there's a discussion, or at least raise enough suspicion to warrant an investigation. I guess it's kind of a double-edged sword, but if there's nothing to go on, I'd rather nolynch than risk mislynching someone like malthusis or Korts on a vague argument.

[Kairyuu]

@Mokina: Thank you. Someone finally agrees with me. Only problem is, while you are supporting adding to the discussion, you aren't doing it. Any ideas/cases to bring forward?

@everyone else: That goes for you guys too. Discuss please. My argument is out there, and until I see some more viewpoints joining it I will not be voting for the no lynch yet.

[StrangerCoug]

I really don't have a good case on anybody right now, and with the slow game there isn't much at the moment. We've gotten rid of the serial killer, but we're not getting new right now.

At least agreeing on a no-lynch is better than just sitting there.

[Korts]

Sorry, guys, got a bit backlogged. Still on page 4 or something...

[iamausername]

I'm happy for this day to end in a No Lynch, but I'd like us to at least make an attempt at discussion before we do that. To that end, here's a PBPA that I've been meaning to get done since I replaced in. My apologies for taking so long, but hey, it's not like anyone else is treating this game with any sense of urgency right now either.

ChannelDelibird

I like his pushing on StrangerCoug's ridiculous reaction to L-3, although I think he dropped it a little too soon;

Why

don't you like putting someone at L-3 without a good reason? What's bad about it?

It's mindless bandwagoning, which isn't good.

Fair enough, I don't see any need to pursue this line of questioning.

I'm confused as to how SC's answer there was satisfactory, seeing as how it didn't really explain anything. Saying that putting someone at L-3 without a good reason is 'mindless badnwagoning' doesn't explain

why

that's a bad thing, which I thought was the entire purpose of the question.

I'm not too worried about Natirasha. This is normal play for him, and I don't think the drake hammer was particularly scummy considering that we were going to lynch him anyway. Come on. We really were.

I don't like the suggestion that drake's lynch was inevitable on D1. If drake had been allowed a chance to claim before being hammered, do you still think he'd have been lynched, CDB?

I am opposed to a Natirasha roleclaim. Even if I thought he was scummier than he is, I don't think claims are going to be particularly reliable, based on my own role PM, the unorthodox role names we've seen so far, and the fact that our mod is an eccentric.

OK, this somewhat answers my previous question, although it still concerns me. Fair enough, I can see how the nature of the setup can make claims less helpful than in your average game, but I don't see why that means we forgo them entirely. If someone is in a position where they will definitely be lynched if they do nothing, why shouldn't they claim, even if it's less likely to save them in this game?

Iron Man/Korts

Iron Man's content on D1 was pretty much exclusively focused on two things; suspicion of Drake, and defence of Iron Man. He was the first proper vote on Drake, and made his case for it before anyone else got on Drake's back for his behaviour, which is a point in Iron Man's favour.

On the other hand, I don't like this:

Drake, I was giving you the benefit of the doubt for the fact that you are new to the site, but if you dont post at least an attempt at a case soon, I'm going to have to start withdrawing that benefit.

Considering that Drake was at L-2 at that point, and Iron Man's vote was still there, I don't see how he was 'giving the benefit of the doubt' to Drake, or how he'd go about 'withdrawing' that benefit. What, was he going to vote Drake even harder?

Korts has yet to give me anything in particular to analyse.

Kairyuu

Pretty solid through D1 & 2. Up until his deeply flawed case on Iron Man/Korts, I don't have any cause to suspect him.

Kairyuu, I want you to look around at completed games on this site and see how many twelve player games you can find with a two-man mafia and a serial killer, and how many you can find with a three-man mafia and a serial killer, and see if you still think you're likely to be right in your assumption.

it also can't hurt to assume 2 scum, lynch them, and then if the game doesn't end, look at the game in retrospect with 20/20 hindsight to find the third.

It can hurt a lot when you want to lynch someone based entirely off the assumption that there are only two scum.

malthusis

Does not exist. Um, fourth vote on the Drake wagon, and poorly reasoned, too. That's definitely suspect. Not a lot else I can say. There's a good chance he's scum, but I'm really uneasy about having to make a decision on that with so little to go on.

Mokina

Pushed Drake to provide better explanations, but also pushed his voters once the wagon started to get disproportionately big. I like her malthusis vote in #153, and how she held to it until it became clear that malthusis had flaked. Definitely feels genuine to me.

The only thing that causes me any problems is her sudden reversal on whether the Nat lynch should have been held off until everyone had a chance to claim psychiatrist or not, because I'm just not seeing the reasons against it.

Still, Mokina seems like the least likely scum here to me.

RandomGem

RandomGem is pretty much the definition of an active lurker. He posts regularly, but says very little. He made a random vote in his first post, took it off in his second post, and has never voted since. Not good.

In fact, the only time he's ever stated any suspicion of anyone was in this post on bird1111.

And if we are in Lylo, then a malthusis lynch by policy would be very unwise... We should wait for his replacement at any rate.

This quote is interesting, because I don't see anyone suggesting any such thing. RandomGem/malthusis partnership? Definitely looks plausible to me.

StrangerCoug

StrangerCoug puts me in mind of a robot attempting to emulate human behaviour. He knows certain things that are done in a game of mafia, as a general rule, but clearly has no comprehension of

why

these things are done. Just...

Yes, but I'm not your mafia.

The plot thickens. Roleclaim, please.

Unvote: Natirasha
Vote: Mokina

for rolefishing. I'm not exactly sure how many votes Natirasha is at, but I'm almost positive he's not at L-1.

This post, man. It's incredible.

I find it pretty impossible to get a read on him, because his plastyle is so ridiculous. I'm finding his D1 play to be almost as much active lurking as RandomGem, which is suspect. If he wasn't SC, I'd think his FoSing RandomGem here when RG had NO VOTES was a huge scumpair indicator, but SC seems to think FoSes actually count as 0.63 of a vote, or something. I don't know. Their both being off the Drake wagon would seem to indicate it as unlikely that they are both scum together, but then they both made comments that look like setting themselves up to get on the wagon any time it was convenient to do so.

[StrangerCoug]

StrangerCoug puts me in mind of a robot attempting to emulate human behaviour.

Remind me to quote that when the game ends xD

He knows certain things that are done in a game of mafia, as a general rule, but clearly has no comprehension of

why

these things are done.

Don't ask me anything about strategy about any game (Mafia or not) and expect me to have a very good answer. It's incorrect to say that I'm 100% oblivious to it, but it probably helps explain why I dare not call myself experienced. It's also incorrect to say that I've never used strategy in Mafia, however, even if it didn't work out how I planned it to.

Let me tell you a story...

Mod: The following game I describe is complete.

I was scum versus three cops in Mini 624. Day 1, two of those cops counterclaimed each other. We got one of them lynched, and I left the other cop alive the following night to make him look suspicious. That cop happened to get a guilty result on our godfather, and the latter got lynched the following day. I had the former offed because I didn't want to run the risk of him not being paranoid (which he actually was).

The third cop claimed after I faked tracker Day 4. I tried explaining that three cops in a mini was simply not believable to me, but when that failed I stopped pushing him. I left him alive again, but this time I gambled—he had three innocents and had not yet investigated me. I killed the person I cleared instead of that cop. He investigated me that night and got an innocent on me, thereby confirming to me that he was naïve, and I still got lynched Day 5 for the lose.

So, the moral of the story: Yes, strategy is one of my weak points, but I'm not a complete stranger to it.

Just...

Yes, but I'm not your mafia.

The plot thickens. Roleclaim, please.

Unvote: Natirasha
Vote: Mokina

for rolefishing. I'm not exactly sure how many votes Natirasha is at, but I'm almost positive he's not at L-1.

This post, man. It's incredible.

I'm impulsive. That's a given.

I find it pretty impossible to get a read on him, because his plastyle is so ridiculous.

I am trying to improve, though. If anything, I'm living longer through a game now—it used to be a pretty frequent for me to get lynched on Day 1. Now I just have to figure out how not to get lynched half the time.

I'm finding his D1 play to be almost as much active lurking as RandomGem, which is suspect. If he wasn't SC, I'd think his FoSing RandomGem here when RG had NO VOTES was a huge scumpair indicator, but SC seems to think FoSes actually count as 0.63 of a vote, or something. I don't know.

I will use an FoS in lieu of a vote when I suspect somebody, but not enough to warrant the latter.

[RandomGem]

RandomGem is pretty much the definition of an active lurker. He posts regularly, but says very little. He made a random vote in his first post, took it off in his second post, and has never voted since. Not good.

Meh. I've been trying to give my opinion, but it's mostly saying cases aren't good instead of making my own cases. So I regretfully agree. But, OMG, I'm still trying!11!11!1!!1

And if we are in Lylo, then a malthusis lynch by policy would be very unwise... We should wait for his replacement at any rate.

This quote is interesting, because I don't see anyone suggesting any such thing. RandomGem/malthusis partnership? Definitely looks plausible to me.

I was referring to this:

@everyone: I guess that means I'm saying that I would support a policy lynch of malthusis in lieu of lynching Korts today if the rest of the town considers no information at all to be a better reason to lynch than what has been called a weak case, though I would also like some more participation and opinions from our lurkers (CDB, RandomGem, and StrangerCoug).

[Kairyuu]

@iamausername: Ok. Well after looking through every completed game from page one of Coney Island, I am forrced to partially agree with you. The frequesncy of serial killers is rare in an of itself, and when there is no serial killer there is always 3 mafia (in the games i checked). However, the games with a serial killer and 3 mafia outnumber the games with a serial killer and 2 mafia by 3:1 (3:1 being the actual numbers of both) so I will grudgingly admit that your scenerio is more likely. That destroys everything I have against Korts, so

unvote

. I still think that putting an SK and 3 mafia in a setup is a bad decision and gives the scum too much of an advantage, but it apparently happens; not very often, but still more frequently than SK with 2 scum (as I think would even the odds a good deal). So I will reread again and see what I can dig up about everyone.

[Kairyuu]

That didn't take long at all. We have very few long posts to sift through.

I seem to have found a new home for my vote though, which is nice. I like Strangercoug as scum from my reread. D1 he did nothing but flip out and vote everyone with the smallest amount of suspicion on them (but oddly enough only FOSed if they did not already have a vote). D2 he continued to flip out, most prominantly at Mokina (who he actually voted even though she didn't have one yet). He also has a tendency towards being a follower, and jumping right in on things other people suggest (Key examples: Mokina's unvote of Nat D2 to wait for a claim (Strangercoug unvoted Mokina to wait for a claim before voting Nat), Mokina's revote of Nat, and RandomGem's no lynch vote recently). He seems to be trying to tie himself to Mokina by following her lead surprisingly often. Maybe he thinks he'll look more pro-town if he copies what Mokina does because she looks pro-town? I'm not buying it.

vote:Strangercoug

for now (will stay in place if we decide to lynch today or change to no lynch if that is still the concensus after some more discussion).