Mini Theme 2222: Open Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[Infinity 324]

She was pretty obviously town on d1 imo, the best example of which was when she very confident explained why she can't be scum here.

Which post was that?
Idk i’ve been mostly townreading them for the effort but i don’t really like how tunneled they are.

976

[MURDERCAT]

Vote Count 3.2

[2] NorwegianboyEE: mastina, Infinity 324
[1] Bingle: Titus
[0] NDMath:
[0] Infinity 324:
[0] Almost50:
[0] mastina:
[0] Titus:
[0] Dwlee99:
[0] Dunnstral:

Not voting: NorwegianboyEE, Almost50, Dwlee99, NDMath, Bingle, Dunnstral

With 9 alive it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline expires in

(expired on 2021-08-01 15:47:09).

[Infinity 324]

Norwee I feel like you're either making up excuses to SR mastina or are upset about the tunnel and that's strongly biasing your read. Tunneling isn't scummy

[NorwegianboyEE]

No no, i love it.
Truthfully.

[Bingle]

I’ll go ahead and give it to you: It was a pro town gambit. If I did it as scum it’s because it’s what town me would have done. I don’t think I would have realized that as scum though.

That "protown" gambit cost our commutes and got us nothing. You should not have done that. Losing our commutes for one check is a horrible trade even if it worked.

Commutes are a fairly garbage role for town and a pretty powerful one for scum, so… nope.

[Dwlee99]

Okay let me put it this way: bingle has no reason as scum to claim a second commute because he just prevents me from dying while I get to use the gunsmith.

[Titus]

I’ll go ahead and give it to you: It was a pro town gambit. If I did it as scum it’s because it’s what town me would have done. I don’t think I would have realized that as scum though.

That "protown" gambit cost our commutes and got us nothing. You should not have done that. Losing our commutes for one check is a horrible trade even if it worked.

Commutes are a fairly garbage role for town and a pretty powerful one for scum, so… nope.

If it's a fairly garbage role for town, why did you commute and not use the GS in your pack instead?

[Bingle]

If it's a fairly garbage role for town, why did you commute and not use the GS in your pack instead?

Why did I not use the N2 gunsmith N1 instead of commuting to make sure my pack survived to N2?

I'm... Well now, that's a really good question.

[Dwlee99]

I figured I'd let you field that one.

[mastina]

Mastina why did you townread Flea in the first place?

Mastina, what makes Flea locktown?

It's a number of things, actually.
1: General resonance of vibes. Flea is going through a lot of the same things as I am and seeing a lot of the same things I am, but critically, are not exact duplicates, given Flea has multiple reads I do not agree on. However, the overall vibe being so similar in nature to me with what faer doing and going through makes me think town.

2: Flea's approach to the game is in fact similar to Flea's approach last Draft Mafia, where fae were town. While it's not impossible to duplicate as scum, it adds to the already-present evidence that Flea is town.

3: Gut.

4: Honestly, personal bias; I like Flea as an individual and when push comes to shove, whenever I find myself lacking in reads on D1, I will just townbin the people who are brilliant rays of sunshine who I love to play with and Flea fits that criteria.

Also while we're on the subject of iso'ing my reasons for reads on players:

I just explained the townreads I have on Taly and Flea, so I don't feel the need to reiterate my reasons there.

Beyond that:
I very strongly believe that this is Almost50's towngame. His moves make sense for his stated stance, his claimed pack and his actions for it all make sense for him as town, and his reads have been pretty damn town. The one and only possible concern I'd have with him is, in fact, that his reads are as good as they are, but the fact that he's overall had some strong stances and backed by reasonable logic means that I just think this is him as town.

These reads still hold for me, of Titus as town and Almost50 as town, to levels that are near absolute.

Add in trust to Infinity, and that leaves an initial sort pile of:
{Bingle, NDMath, Dwlee99, Dunnstral, NorwegianboyEE}.

On principle, I refuse to vote outside of the Flea wagon D1, and Dwlee was off the wagon, so that leaves the first revised sort pile as:
{Bingle, NDMath, Dunnstral, NorwegianboyEE} containing 1-2 scum.

Bingle and NDMath both have soft, but not hard, reasons to be town imo, though of them I would think Bingle's got more reason to be town overall. Both also give off minor town vibes.

Dunnstral does not as literally the only thing which was clearing him was his mason claim but playwise Dunnstral's iso this game is fucking abysmal. So push come to shove, if I were to vote anyone other than Norwee it'd be Dunn here, honestly.

But really, I still think Norwee is just scum here, both by being one of the least town by play, least town by claim, and also for just being scum.

[mastina]

I am not against using a vig that is heavily gated and have in fact done so as town before.

Lynx? I was of the impression that your town approach to cigs was still “Town should never use vigs.”

As a matter of fact, no, that stance is way way way outdated.

An ungated vig I think shouldn't shoot in a closed theme game and should only shoot once in any semi-open game (including any Normal)--if the single shot to prove themselves as being a vig (and thus, prove themselves as town by virtue of the setup being semi-open) brings the game onto evens, there may, may,

may

be a case for a second shot to bring the game back to odds, but otherwise, once to prove their power is all they should do.

A gated vig that is gated to be on a single night or a single shot though? Should always shoot to prove the role, regardless of game type, because if you don't use it yet you lose it anyway, by the "use it or lose it" mentality, it is always better to use the power than to not use it.

So a N4 vig which you can pressure scum with the threat of using it? Absolutely. It's not a threat to scum if you refuse to use it even if you have it, so by necessity of picking up a killing role, I

must

be prepared to use it. Both to prove I have the killing role, and to threaten the scum that I could shoot them. Or, assuming the game wouldn't end with a misshot, at the very least remove a mislim. They can only guess as to how I use my role; only *I* know how I WILL use my role. So them not being able to assume makes me dangerous to them.

As for past links, I've done it multiple times before as town but the one which comes to mind immediately is my shot on Kokichi Oma this game. And I didn't even need that shot to be conftown; I was literally a

mason

, and as a MASON who was conftown already, I took a vig shot because if I didn't use the vig shot N1 I would lose it because it was for N1 specifically.

[mastina]

The thing that concerns me about your claim is not that you took the role, but that you sound like you intend to use it. (As a vig, specifically).

Absolutely. If I wasn't prepared to use the killing role, it wouldn't force the scum to play around it, now, would it?

And again, the only way scum know which killing role I take is if they either had the other or if they rolecop me--I would presume that anyone with a rolecop in their pack that didn't take it would track those that could take it and thus we would have the appropriate level of tracking and thus have the appropriate level of knowledge in regards to the latter case.

Also i wish Mastina would have actually been angry instead of saying they felt angry, about Flea elimination. Because then it would seem a bit more genuine.

I can't be angry at a flip that hasn't happened yet. Flea was being wagoned but Flea was, explicitly, not dead at the time nor were fae the only viable endgame wagon given a deadline rush. Especially given that while I thought fae were town, my reads are not foolproof. It wouldn't do to get angry at a townread of mine being eliminated if the townread ended up flipping scum, now, would it?

I

can

be furious at a Flea flip once there

has

been a Flea flip and they flip exactly what I thought fae would.

I feel like Mastina keeps harping on the same pounts about me but they never actually progress their read in response to things i’ve done or flips that are happening.

There's nothing TO progress in the read. Your alignment doesn't change so the points I make don't become suddenly obsolete. What new information makes you less likely to be scum? Claiming the pack you got truthfully? The various claims today of which none are about you but which most sound true and thus narrow the poe down to include you? (That

strengthens

the scumread, it doesn't weaken it.) House flipping scum when nothing in your posts or his make you not be partners? And in fact you have decent partner equity with him? From your stances on him? Even taking time to process the guilty on him as being such?
Plus, House has decent partner equity with you, too, with this defense of you. He did vote Norwee here, but quoteth House himself,

Hopping on but back off before elimination is a pretty basic distancing tactic.

Guess what House did?

VOTE: T3

This looks an awful lot like hopping onto the Norwee wagon but backing off before a Norwee elimination, the very scum tactic House described.

If anything, the new evidence just keeps piling up and being

more

damning towards you being scum, Norwee. Not less.

[Infinity 324]

playwise Dunnstral's iso this game is fucking abysmal

Is there something to this besides "he's not posting"?

[Infinity 324]

Also, Titus's result on math was a rolecop, so it's NAI for math

[Infinity 324]

Spoiler: not really game relevant

An ungated vig I think shouldn't shoot in a closed theme game and should only shoot once in any semi-open game (including any Normal)--if the single shot to prove themselves as being a vig (and thus, prove themselves as town by virtue of the setup being semi-open) brings the game onto evens, there may, may, may be a case for a second shot to bring the game back to odds, but otherwise, once to prove their power is all they should do.

This is something that I've never understood when I've seen people argue against shooting vigs. The risk of shooting with a vig is a) You shoot someone who was going to be NKed or b) You shoot a PR without giving them a chance to claim. If you shoot a consensus SR, then a) shouldn't really be a problem though, and the advantage of possibly gaining an elim seems massive. Even in a normal (with a limited expectations of protectives and other killing roles) and even disregarding the confirming benefit, this tradeoff seems well worth it. In the off chance that a doc protect or something like that happens, you just increased town's win % by a huge amount. You did mention shooting a vig shot when you were conftown, but in a theme. Am I underestimating the downside of not getting a claim out of someone, or what?

[mastina]

playwise Dunnstral's iso this game is fucking abysmal

Is there something to this besides "he's not posting"?

Dunnstral not posting would be reason enough, but beyond that:

This is his first game-content post in the game. (And he furthered it here.) It took him ten posts to post anything that is tangibly a read of any sort, and it is purely taking Norwee's side of the 1v1 I initiated between us.

Even if Norwee isn't scum I'd call that fairly damning but if Norwee IS scum you can't get much stronger than that for a third-buddy indicator.

He does townread you, but he doesn't say why.

Perhaps we should stop talking about roles and just focus on individual reads

This is also borderline outright hypocritical, because as I've shown above, he's only shown a grand total of

two

reads and described neither. He didn't even give a read on me, he just said that he preferred voting me over Norwee. He said Norwee town, Infinity town, but that's it. For someone saying we should focus on individual reads, he sure was lacking in that department at the time!

He gave more Norwee defense here.

Here he says he explicitly doesn't have scumreads but it would appear he doesn't have much in the way of reads at all, as he

still

has only said he has two reads (Norwee town, Infinity town) and described neither of them.

He adds a third read here, of Titus town, but continues to remain reasonless on all his reads.

And then hopped in to vote for Flea, never bothering to develop reads on more players.

The Dunnstral-as-town that I know would develop reads and then push them, even in the last minutes of a day. For proof of seeing this in action, read his posts here in Warehouse 13 around deadline. He was around, and incredibly active. In the final 24 hours of the deadline, he made

ten

posts, all giving reads, reasons, opinions, and trying to influence the gamestate. You can see how he was considering the deadline options in posts like this, and others similarly so.

This game had

one

, a pop-in that had none of that life, none of that fire, none of that assessment, none of that evaluation, none of that consideration, nothing.

He correctly breaks down scum distribution given the information available at the time (even if today we know it wrong), but notice what he doesn't give?

He doesn't give opinions on which of the three in the one bracket are town/scum or on which of the leftovers in the leftovers are town/scum. For that matter, he didn't even do that for House/Infinity (but unlike the other two, that's at least more forgivable as it was a foregone conclusion that House was going to die).

Literally the towniest things about Dunnstral this game are him claiming the mason (and having taken it apparently), and his claim of taking the N2 jailkeeper and using it on Bingle--neither of these are actually things that make Dunn be town.

The entire rest of his lackluster iso just shows disinterested scum. 1783 is the first time he's given reads since D1's Infinity/Norwee town and even then it's on a fraction of the playerlist and remains reasonless.

[mastina]

Am I underestimating the downside of not getting a claim out of someone, or what?

The number of times I've seen players vigged that people assume were scum kills is astronomically high.

Do you know why those players were assumed to be scum kills until much much later in the game in spite of them being vig kills?

Because vigs make far, far, far more bad shots than they do good ones. It's not just shooting someone claimless; it's also the fact that vigs think they have better reads than they actually do. If you're shooting a consensus scumread that has already claimed, it's an entirely different ballpark than shooting someone who isn't a consensus scumread that hasn't claimed. But most vigs do the latter rather than the former.

[Infinity 324]

I'm a bit surprised that you use what I'm as interpreting as "lifeless" as a reason to SR Dunn, because probably over 50% of town!dunn games I've seen recently I'd describe that way. I might look at your post/his previous games in more depth.

Is this a meta read to you? Because I'm quite confident that the type of play you describe is NAI for players with strong scumgames in the abstract.

PEdit: sure, but I think the advice should be "shoot a consensus scumread" rather than don't shoot. Obviously if they're claimed that'd be nice, but to me it seems like it's still well worth it if there's no consensus scumread that has claimed.

[Infinity 324]

viewtopic.php?t=84707&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Dunn is more invested in the mech here, but ime he's more invested in the mech as scum too. He does give a bit more explanation for his reads here, but it's a good example of the level of activity I've come to expect from dunn, as both alignments.

[mastina]

Is this a meta read to you?

It both IS, and isn't, a meta read.

In-General-Meta: Dunnstral

can

be active as scum, and

can

be inactive as scum, but usually, he is

more active

as town, and

less

active as scum. Posting often is :effort: from scum-Dunnstral which he CAN do but not often. Posting often is natural to Dunnstral, but not guaranteed because, yes, he can have games where he's less active for numerous various reasons. (Not invested in the game, struggling, rl stuff, etc.)

That's the in-general meta part.

There is also a Very Specific Meta: the contrast between how Dunnstral acted end of D1 here, vs. the way Dunnstral acted end of D1 in Warehouse 13 among others. I believe that even in a game where Dunnstral as town is being less active, his end-of-day powerspike is notable as town. I can also point towards other games, such as Mystery Box of Sylver I, where he had a notable activity spike at the end of the day giving both content and posts near deadline in spite of an otherwise lackluster performance. Which is to say:

even when Dunnstral is having an inactive towngame,

he usually spikes during end-of-D1s

.
In this game instead of a spike we got one, incredibly lackluster, post.

But then there's the non-meta, shown in 1865 in that Dunnstral's content this game is dismal and highly partner-indicative for Norwee but even if Norwee isn't scum is still fairly damning for a player. It's not related to Dunnstral's meta; any player with an iso as bad as his is, would be vote-worthy.

[Titus]

I'm not reading all this. Occam's Razor people. Bingle picked ascetic or commuter to avoid investigation N1 and the gunsmith angle is a con to hide no second commuter in his deck.

[Dwlee99]

I don't know why scum!Bingle would force himself into not night killing me when I have a gunsmith he knows about.

[mastina]

I'm not reading all this.

You don't need to read all of it but you

should

read this much;

While we're on the subject of iso'ing my reasons for reads on players:

I just explained the townreads I have on Taly and Flea, so I don't feel the need to reiterate my reasons there.

Beyond that:
I very strongly believe that this is Almost50's towngame. His moves make sense for his stated stance, his claimed pack and his actions for it all make sense for him as town, and his reads have been pretty damn town. The one and only possible concern I'd have with him is, in fact, that his reads are as good as they are, but the fact that he's overall had some strong stances and backed by reasonable logic means that I just think this is him as town.

These reads still hold for me, of Titus as town and Almost50 as town, to levels that are near absolute.

Add in trust to Infinity, and that leaves an initial sort pile of:
{Bingle, NDMath, Dwlee99, Dunnstral, NorwegianboyEE}.

Dunnstral does not as literally the only thing which was clearing him was his mason claim but playwise Dunnstral's iso this game is fucking abysmal. So push come to shove, if I were to vote anyone other than Norwee it'd be Dunn here, honestly.

But really, I still think Norwee is just scum here, both by being one of the least town by play, least town by claim, and also for just being scum.

I feel like Mastina keeps harping on the same pounts about me but they never actually progress their read in response to things i’ve done or flips that are happening.

There's nothing TO progress in the read. Your alignment doesn't change so the points I make don't become suddenly obsolete. What new information makes you less likely to be scum? Claiming the pack you got truthfully? The various claims today of which none are about you but which most sound true and thus narrow the poe down to include you? (That

strengthens

the scumread, it doesn't weaken it.) House flipping scum when nothing in your posts or his make you not be partners? And in fact you have decent partner equity with him? From your stances on him? Even taking time to process the guilty on him as being such?
Plus, House has decent partner equity with you, too, with this defense of you. He did vote Norwee here, but quoteth House himself,

Hopping on but back off before elimination is a pretty basic distancing tactic.

Guess what House did?

VOTE: T3

This looks an awful lot like hopping onto the Norwee wagon but backing off before a Norwee elimination, the very scum tactic House described.

If anything, the new evidence just keeps piling up and being

more

damning towards you being scum, Norwee. Not less.

playwise Dunnstral's iso this game is fucking abysmal

Is there something to this besides "he's not posting"?

Dunnstral not posting would be reason enough, but beyond that:

This is his first game-content post in the game. (And he furthered it here.) It took him ten posts to post anything that is tangibly a read of any sort, and it is purely taking Norwee's side of the 1v1 I initiated between us.

Even if Norwee isn't scum I'd call that fairly damning but if Norwee IS scum you can't get much stronger than that for a third-buddy indicator.

He does townread you, but he doesn't say why.

Perhaps we should stop talking about roles and just focus on individual reads

This is also borderline outright hypocritical, because as I've shown above, he's only shown a grand total of

two

reads and described neither. He didn't even give a read on me, he just said that he preferred voting me over Norwee. He said Norwee town, Infinity town, but that's it. For someone saying we should focus on individual reads, he sure was lacking in that department at the time!

He gave more Norwee defense here.

Here he says he explicitly doesn't have scumreads but it would appear he doesn't have much in the way of reads at all, as he

still

has only said he has two reads (Norwee town, Infinity town) and described neither of them.

He adds a third read here, of Titus town, but continues to remain reasonless on all his reads.

And then hopped in to vote for Flea, never bothering to develop reads on more players.

The Dunnstral-as-town that I know would develop reads and then push them, even in the last minutes of a day. For proof of seeing this in action, read his posts here in Warehouse 13 around deadline. He was around, and incredibly active. In the final 24 hours of the deadline, he made

ten

posts, all giving reads, reasons, opinions, and trying to influence the gamestate. You can see how he was considering the deadline options in posts like this, and others similarly so.

This game had

one

, a pop-in that had none of that life, none of that fire, none of that assessment, none of that evaluation, none of that consideration, nothing.

He correctly breaks down scum distribution given the information available at the time (even if today we know it wrong), but notice what he doesn't give?

He doesn't give opinions on which of the three in the one bracket are town/scum or on which of the leftovers in the leftovers are town/scum. For that matter, he didn't even do that for House/Infinity (but unlike the other two, that's at least more forgivable as it was a foregone conclusion that House was going to die).

Literally the towniest things about Dunnstral this game are him claiming the mason (and having taken it apparently), and his claim of taking the N2 jailkeeper and using it on Bingle--neither of these are actually things that make Dunn be town.

The entire rest of his lackluster iso just shows disinterested scum. 1783 is the first time he's given reads since D1's Infinity/Norwee town and even then it's on a fraction of the playerlist and remains reasonless.

Is this a meta read to you?

It both IS, and isn't, a meta read.

In-General-Meta: Dunnstral

can

be active as scum, and

can

be inactive as scum, but usually, he is

more active

as town, and

less

active as scum. Posting often is :effort: from scum-Dunnstral which he CAN do but not often. Posting often is natural to Dunnstral, but not guaranteed because, yes, he can have games where he's less active for numerous various reasons. (Not invested in the game, struggling, rl stuff, etc.)

That's the in-general meta part.

There is also a Very Specific Meta: the contrast between how Dunnstral acted end of D1 here, vs. the way Dunnstral acted end of D1 in Warehouse 13 among others. I believe that even in a game where Dunnstral as town is being less active, his end-of-day powerspike is notable as town. I can also point towards other games, such as Mystery Box of Sylver I, where he had a notable activity spike at the end of the day giving both content and posts near deadline in spite of an otherwise lackluster performance. Which is to say:

even when Dunnstral is having an inactive towngame,

he usually spikes during end-of-D1s

.
In this game instead of a spike we got one, incredibly lackluster, post.

But then there's the non-meta, shown in 1865 in that Dunnstral's content this game is dismal and highly partner-indicative for Norwee but even if Norwee isn't scum is still fairly damning for a player. It's not related to Dunnstral's meta; any player with an iso as bad as his is, would be vote-worthy.

[Almost50]

Also, Titus's result on math was a rolecop, so it's NAI for math

I'd let the Rolecop (Titus) decide. Like, without trying to "fish" for info, let me give you a hypothetical example: You Rolecop me and find that I'm still Vanilla on N3. Do you think that's NAI? Like, what scum would pass on taking ANY kind of ability for 2-3 nights??

I'll stop at this point. Please don't try to argue further for now. Maybe post-game.

[Titus]

Also, Titus's result on math was a rolecop, so it's NAI for math

I'd let the Rolecop (Titus) decide. Like, without trying to "fish" for info, let me give you a hypothetical example: You Rolecop me and find that I'm still Vanilla on N3. Do you think that's NAI? Like, what scum would pass on taking ANY kind of ability for 2-3 nights??

I'll stop at this point. Please don't try to argue further for now. Maybe post-game.

I can decide later. I know what role NDMath took. I can analyze what they do with that role and make up my mind.

I'm in no rush to do so since Bingle and Dwlee99 are obviously teamed. Very slight chance Bingle is hiding behind the fact his pack contained a N2 gunsmith. If Bingle flips town, unlikely, then I'll expand my pool.

Expect for now, unless there's a guilty, I am voteparked until lylo.