MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[WhemeStar]

His scum case is literally "why didnt you claim at the start of day 2"

Ive been against claiming all game and only did it once I found out a50 claimed everything

[Ircher]

Day 5 VC #4

Galron (1): WhemeStar (1864)
MathBlade (0):
WhemeStar (1): Galron (1912)

Not Voting (3): Titus, MathBlade, DrippingGoofball (1829)

With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to fade a player.

Deadlines

This phase will end no earlier than Thursday, July 15, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-15 21:45:00).
This phase will end no later than Saturday, July 24, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-24 21:45:00).

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, please inform me each week.
2: Please let me know if you have a different pronoun preference than listed below.
3: The moderator will be V/LA in late July. Tentative dates are July 25 to July 28.
4: Please note that with five players left, there is no minimum deadline.

Pronoun Key

1: DrippingGoofball : It
6: Galron : He/him
7: MathBlade : He/him
9: Titus : She/her
10: WhemeStar : He/him

[DrippingGoofball]

Galron making more sense than Wheme. Is it AI?

[MathBlade]

Lots of posts.
VC says cross voting still.
On my 10 minute break can’t read everything.
Any urgent questions?

[MathBlade]

I guess since no one is here:
General thoughts time.

Both Wheme and Galron scumread me and since DGB+Titus haven’t hammered them at least one of Wheme/Galron is scum.

This means either
A> One player is with Wheme
B> One player is with Galron
Or
C> They’re both scum and this is show.

I think since both Wheme and Galron are pushing me and one has to be scum therefore I have to be lock town or pretty close.
I think Titus is either lock town or had to intentionally push Galron from the offset and hope to swing to me but didn’t expect me to be vig enabler. This one seems more moonlogic.
I think DGB has more of a chance of being scum based on setup but I think Wheme+Galron is more likely but if I pick wrong then whoever is scum just hammers.

I kinda want to chill ax after a stressful work meeting so sorry I won’t just rush a vote because I have to solve which/both are scum to be sure.

[DrippingGoofball]

Can you make those calculations again, but including you-scum as a possibility.

[WhemeStar]

Galron making more sense than Wheme. Is it AI?

His whole case is trying to paint A50 as right when A50 was completely wrong so I don’t know what your talking about

[DrippingGoofball]

You made no case, so by default Galron makes more sense.

[DrippingGoofball]

What have you done to convince me of your alignment either way?

[Titus]

Life is getting complicated. I'll try to be here.

[MathBlade]

Can you make those calculations again, but including you-scum as a possibility.

I can’t because I know I am town and that’s where the calculations start from.

If we start with me scum then we get one of the scum is bussing me in elo. That’s as far as it goes. The arguments in the above post are assuming I am town. I can spin either of the two to work as a potential partner but it would be dishonest either way so I would rather go through all of the things that would have to be true for me to be scum and you town and show you how absurd they are when I get a moment.

[Titus]

Dgb Math impossible.

One of Wheme and Galron must be scum, at least

[Titus]

I kinda want to chill ax after a stressful work meeting so sorry I won’t just rush a vote because I have to solve which/both are scum to be sure.

Not rushing

[Titus]

I think Titus is either lock town or had to intentionally push Galron from the offset and hope to swing to me but didn’t expect me to be vig enabler. This one seems more moonlogic.

Why isn't me plus Wheme a thing?

[WhemeStar]

What have you done to convince me of your alignment either way?

I haven’t made posts that come from scum today like galron

[WhemeStar]

Galrons play today doesnt make sense as town especially his interactions with Titus

[WhemeStar]

I also don’t make cases that’s not how I play mafia you can ask Titus if you don’t believe me

[WhemeStar]

I got work for next 14 hours so probably won’t be around

[Titus]

Galrons play today doesnt make sense as town especially his interactions with Titus

Go on

[Titus]

I also don’t make cases that’s not how I play mafia you can ask Titus if you don’t believe me

True

[MathBlade]

High level thoughts based on reading so far:
(In order by playlist because mobile please ignore extra symbols hard to remove them on mobile)

DrippingGoofball+
>> Claimed cop with a guilty on nom. If town then high kill equity but why no reads? Why doesn’t it want to town tell or help find the other scum from its pov? Once a guilty is claimed hunting becomes extremely hard and I would think it would want to find scum no?

(Accounting for recent posts)
Found your answer (sorry for missing it and I am wholly unsatisfied.) That’s the thing though. You’re saying it’s a guilty over and over but you’re not doing the things a person with a guilty does. You’re expecting me to “just believe” your claim. If I believed your claim then I wouldn’t be criticizing it because I believed it. I don’t think a mod puts 2-3 cops of various types (you, Titus, A50) (even one shot) in a game with a full doctor and a roleblocker. Follow the cop becomes an unavoidable issue. I am trying to figure out who is truthtelling and who is lying and you just being “guilty” without a goddamn care in the world if you die that we will have your thoughts really really feels fake. Combined with your predisposition towards faking guilties and like I get the smart play is to vote nom here but I really don’t want to until I get you and things sorted.

(Irrelevant aside) please don’t joke about reporting players to admins. This seems in bad taste.

Flea The Magician+*
>> Horrible miselimination. Faer is like chicken. Leave faer in the oven a bit and faer will scum/town tell when faer gets free of medical issues. Time permitting need to look back on the wagon.

Xlos+
>> A(n) in your intro post is arbitrarily defined. I am happy you also share a bachelor’s in math like me. However I am not a fan of your posting. Assume for a moment that the distribution is as suggested and there is a scum in each of the kingdoms. Would we then just arbitrarily eliminate one? Flavor tends to be just flavor if/until demonstrated otherwise.

Initial reads seem to suffer from the too many town reads problem. Overall feels very scummy. Also not a fan of their suggestion from nomnom. I think there’s a major flaw in it and I think saying what is antitown but will do so if prompted.

Almost50+
Where oh where is my a50 gone? Claims rolecop similar to Titus. Neither A50 nor Titus are dead. A50 being quiet/unremarkable sends scum pings for me hard.

If nom is scum, a50 shoots up the list for possible buddies. If nom is town then A50 can go to null but must provide content.

Claimed cop why not dead?
Very much in the scum pool. Needs to show the wim.

Jake The Wolfie+
Jake’s ISO I guess would be town by PoE but ewww I hate their iso. (Already commented why earlier)

Galron+
I see where Galron started with T3 but I don’t think T3 is scum because it’s kinda dumb to claim informed early if scum. Yes usually informed is scum only but I think there’s some weird shit going on here. I like most of their progression and while I disagree with their logic on Nom I can see how someone would get there.

MathBlade+
Me the math loving person who apparently has all the value to the yard and makes all the theorems say what variables are enabled?

T3+
Claims informed. Two players back their informed claim. Very likely informed now just a matter of alignment. I don’t like how they went from DGB you’re dying tomorrow to where there at now. Would be hoping to see more good hunting than random votes.

Titus+
Claimed rolecop.
I believe her claim more so than a50’s.
In order of believability it is >> 1) Titus 2) DGB 3) A50.
I think her ISO is pretty solid but I will always have Titus paranoia. Especially when murdercat was killed over T3 and two cop claims. Like I get the smart thing and she’s doing it I just feel so much is unresolved.

WhemeStar+*
Is it bad you believe the nom claim? No? Your beliefs are your beliefs. I think with claims out so far I think it might be a good idea for you to extrapolate some. Assuming you’re town then if nom is town you either save Nom or demonstrate what pinged you and then we can use it as a starting point. If nom is scum then you learn how to judge nom claims better. Assuming you’re scum there’s risk involved but I think you’re town and it’s antitown to go into those risks so gonna quit rambling now.

11: MURDERCAT+
Dead doctor. Question is is MurderCat dead for being a doctor or reads or null kill? No one seems to be looking into this. Yes I am aware this looks bad on me if MC was killed for reads but theories should be built.

12: Toogeloo+
Very very likely roleblocker. I don’t see Town fake claiming to block nom and I don’t see Toog as scum fake claiming to save a buddy while claiming two shot. The two of that two shot could easily be leashed if scum. Very likely town two shot Roleblocker.

13: nomnomnom+
Their claim is just horrendously bad. Like “Werewolf is Mafia” levels bad. But I think in some ways the three cop problem is even worse.

Like I pretty much have a pool of would be okay to die peoples and that’s where I am at. I just kinda think something is hinky

Let’s start here and assume I am scum.

This would mean I would have to, before knowing there is a rolecop for certain have established a fake claim. Not only that I would have to continue it after killing the rolecop when speaking with Jake.

At the point of making my claim I would have to know
A> A reasonable certainty know it is a safe fake claim
B> never do a single kill all game in case of tracker or watcher
C> Kill T3 and be right about my theory that he was the rolecop

So if we argue that Galron was blocked as is likely you’d have to argue that in a scum me world that I killed T3.
Nom was blocked by Toog so you have to argue that I would potentially burn a fake claim.

DGB and I share the same view that a good fake claim takes an eternity.

So therefore if you assume I am scum then it is a pretty safe assumption it is not with Galron.

Now let’s look at Wheme for a moment.
Me + Wheme would mean that any of us could be doing the kills so Wheme would be the one doing so and it would match the lack of hood use A50 was on about.

So now we just have either A> I am lying about vig enabler (see above as for unlikeliness)
Or B> I am truth telling about being a vig enabler and Wheme is a informed neighbor busdriver/redirector strongman

If you’re arguing I am scum then you have to argue I came up with a fake claim all the way back upon replacing in instantly and kept it up after the rolecop was dead OR you have to argue I am telling the truth about vig enabler and scum balance

Not only that but I intentionally bus Nom when Titus and A50 gave me outs. It is much easier to stroke their egos and make them think Nom is town there. There’s no reason to stop A50 from doing a mass flavor claim.

When you look at the day play plus my role me scum just does not fit. It’s absurdity.

[MathBlade]

I think Titus is either lock town or had to intentionally push Galron from the offset and hope to swing to me but didn’t expect me to be vig enabler. This one seems more moonlogic.

Why isn't me plus Wheme a thing?

It’s literally possible but I don’t think it’s probable here. It’s the possible that stops me from voting Galron immediately. For a you + Wheme scenario you’d have to leave him to fend for himself when Galron opened the day suspecting me and Wheme. There’d always be that possibility of Galron voting Wheme first and then being defensive. You don’t like playing defensive elo. That’s not your style you like control as scum.

[WhemeStar]

Or B> I am truth telling about being a vig enabler and Wheme is a informed neighbor busdriver/redirector strongma

LOL

[MathBlade]

Or B> I am truth telling about being a vig enabler and Wheme is a informed neighbor busdriver/redirector strongma

LOL

Yes I wrote it for maximum laughs so people could see just how absurd me scum really is.

Wheme assume I am mod cleared town. Who is scum with Galron to you?

[WhemeStar]

Galrons play today doesnt make sense as town especially his interactions with Titus

Go on

He only ignores you about voting first if he’s scum not knowing what to do IMO