Micro 1020: To Tell the Truth [Game over]

[Dwlee99]

Clidd
Infinity
Datisi
Pooky
Pav
MC/Arc

[Datisi]

why am i town?

[Dwlee99]

You're solvey and all the slots below you are worse (yes I think you're more townie than Pooky now). Infinity is above you because of the slip mainly I hope I'm not mistakenly putting too much stake in that.

[Datisi]

what slip, did i miss something?

[Dwlee99]

Each player has a base probability of being town at 6/9

It's 6/8 cause there are 8 players alive.

It's 5/8 because there are 3 scum...

Yes I definitely knew that.

[Dwlee99]

Aside from this slip you're higher than infinity on my reads list.

[Datisi]

not unfakeable, and i generally don't trust slips like that / consider them more a meme than anything, but noted.

[Dwlee99]

If it isn't a slip I think it isn't faked, just a brain fart moment.

[clidd]

@Datisi

It was because of the way the discussion went, but maybe I exaggerated about the secondary SvS hypothesis. I wouldn't say it"s impossible to be TvT, but I do think that TvS is more likely to me atm.

[clidd]

And assuming a Pooky townflip, it's not like you would automatically be scum (if that thought crossed your mind). I will re-evaluate, we will talk and from that point I would see if TvT really is the case or not.

[clidd]

But my expectation is a scumflip from Pooky given the current posting.

[clidd]

VOTE: Arc

Good vote btw.

[clidd]

259 and 260 are directed to Datisi (extension of 258)

[clidd]

@Arc

I don't see a problem with having Dwlee as null by play.

[clidd]

I could vote Arc here too, her last post was weird-scummy.

[clidd]

Still, I'd like to figure out Pooky first.

[clidd]

@Datisi

Besides me, Infinity and Pooky, what do you think about the others?

[clidd]

Actually, Dwlee is a townlean now.

[clidd]

My mind is like:

{Me / Dwlee / Datisi} -> Town
{Infinity} -> Maybe town
{Pav /Arc / Pooky / MC} -> Scum/PoE

Not much different from 250

[clidd]

My initial townping on Pav dissipated over time (which is why he's PoE now) ^

[clidd]

@Pooky

I kind of need a towntell from you or something to make me know that you're town (if you're town).

[Pavowski]

Sorry I haven't been in the thread much; I had a frustrating RL incident and I'm too tired to use my brain the way I should. I'll look with fresh eyes in the morning.

You've had a chance to post at least once here in the last few hours, but I'll take your word for it.

When you get back, I'd appreciate your feedback on the players: MC/Pooky/Arc.

Reading over and catching up.

I can't claim to know anybody's meta, so I'm thinking along three paths in this game.

1. Pooky. Quickhammer looks bad, of course town can quickhammer but it makes more sense from scum. Don't love their interactions but if they're a town quickhammerer they make as much sense as if they're a scum quickhammerer. Basically the feel I get is "come on I'm obviously town" which makes so little sense as a scum play I almost buy it. Basically they feel kinda chaotic and it's hard to sort chaos.

2. Arc. 142 is not great; the read on Dat is weird because 52 seems like not a bad way to approach things right now. However, points out that Clidd is not conftown at this point despite lots of people early on saying he is (certainly feels genuine but at the time of 142 Clidd had not yet posted and all we had was the check), this is true and a good point, she may have been the first to make it. Votes Dwlee almost as an OMGUS rather than on the not-terrible case against him. Weird. 247 is also not great. Seems offended at a Dwlee null read which is not unreasonable right now.

3. Dwlee. I don't mean to open up the maths question again as that discussion seems to have settled down, but I think the conclusion was 3/8 the result on him was legit. I go back to my earlier question: Would scum target themselves with a check hoping for a townie check and believing they could ride out a scum check if it came? Yeah, I think they might. Seems more confident in a town!Pooky read than is justified, so if Pooky flips town, Dwlee would be my auto-elim next day (and Dat's 52 comes back to mind -- that is, yeet the quickhammer and contend with Dwlee next day). Seems like a decent enough elim based on the maths from the check alone. If he's town, well... Umlaut did warn us the RNG could play havoc in this game and that feels like bad luck.

More coming, don't want to wall...

[Datisi]

And assuming a Pooky townflip, it's not like you would automatically be scum (if that thought crossed your mind). I will re-evaluate, we will talk and from that point I would see if TvT really is the case or not.

that thought did cross my mind, something about chaining up misyeets. but when i thought about it, you being scum would mean that scum purposefully put two of their own into the investigation (not impossible, though i think decently unlikely), and, while "you're chaining up misyeets" is a somewhat common accusation, i don't remember seeing a game where scum was actually that blatant about it.

@Datisi

Besides me, Infinity and Pooky, what do you think about the others?

not much, i would've said something otherwise. angel is definitely my strongest scumread outside of pooky, her posts seem kind of designed to make it look like she's doing something / thinking about the game, while in reality not doing anything. i skimmed murdercat's iso, and it seemed just full of mechtalk, so yeah, not a fan. maybe i'm kind of slowly turning around on dwlee, but it's still far cry from a solid townread, as that Y-1 and reaction after it is just Not Good. also, their insistence on pooky being town doesn't sit right with me.

if i had to rank people, i guess it would be clidd > infinity > dwlee > pav > murdercat > angel > pooky. but my overall confidence on this is very low, and i don't think i'd be surprised at any flip right now.

pedit: aaaand i see pav is posting right now. i see he says "more coming", so i'll post this post now, wait until he's done, and rework the above order if necessary.

[Dwlee99]

if Pooky flips town, Dwlee would be my auto-elim next day

This is scum

[Pavowski]

Other thoughts.

Dat feels town to me, I think they're too convinced pooky is obv scum but it's not entirely unfounded. If pooky is scum I don't think this is a bus, busing doesn't make a lot of sense anyway with no night kill.

Infinity is maybe oversold on a Dwlee guilty but seems to be backing off from that. Town pings.

I'm having the hardest time with MC. Staying at null for now but I want to reread again.

Clidd is the beneficiary of an innocent check and feels pretty genuine. Could be wolfing but just doesn't feel that way to me.

I need to vote. Anti-walling this to do that...