Mini 659: The Neighborhood- Game over on Day 6

[bionicchop2]

A wise man once said - if there is nothing happening, vote!. Well maybe a wise man never said that, but one probably should.

##unvote;##vote Darox

mostly for voting and then all the reasons given for the vote have occurred after the vote.

[gorckat]

Vote Count

(6 to lynch)

Darox (3):

TonyMontana, fhqwhgads, bionic

TonyMontana (2):

Darox, Oman

Tommy:

crywolf

Ythill:

Rashiminos

crywolf:

Ythill

Not voting (2):

Elias, Tommy


**Reviewing for prods this evening. Haven't heard back on my Elias replacement feelers. If anyone has a lead on a replacement, drop me a PM**

[Ythill]

Crywolf PbPA

(post numbers are in isolation)

00 – Random vote on Lowell.
01 – Discusses user’s claim, leads the cop.

First scum-tell on her. She seems more worried about the cops investigation than user’s claim.

02 – Agreement with Lowell’s attack, FoS on Tony for talking, asks about option c.

The first case where wolf explains her opinions by agreeing with others. She does this a lot. There are very few original opinions from her.

03 – What the hell does Lowell mean?
04 – Cites Tony’s post as satisfactory and reason to look at Lowell.

More basing her opinion on others’.

05 – Wants to know more about option c.

Scum are not curious about roles, they tend to have more curiosity about other things.

06 – Attacks Tommy for changing stance (shut-up to defense) on Tony; semantics about “pushing;” asks Fhq a question; announces claim-suspicion on user, making the statement, “I shouldn’t be completely trusted just yet.”

This last bit could be a slip, though there are context-appropriate reasons it could be a simple error. Considering later clarifications, I now think the potential slip was the only (possibly) suspicious thing about this post.

07 – EBWOP to say, “

he

shouldn’t be trusted.”

Catches her own slip, probably a null tell.

08 – Will get “ticked off” if bionic doesn’t explain his vote.
09 – Justifies getting ticked off.

I agree with wolf here.

10 – Thanks bionic for explaining his vote but only responds to one point.

I wonder why she would ask for clarification and then refrain from answering some points. Seems like she didn’t have good answers prepared.

11 – States that she was mistaken about what QFT meant, openly OMGUS votes Lowell.

At this point, this is a null-tell. However, it becomes important later.

12 – EBWOP of a typo.
13 - Content with OMGUS, cites Lowell’s ruthlessness.

Now we have her admitting the OMGUS but still being comfortable with it, which is very strange. She seems to be saying we should hang Lowell because she doesn’t like him, irrespective of his alignment, which she makes no attempt to determine. First smoking gun.

14 – Check in.
15 – Check in.
16 – Long post. Thinks fast Lowell wagon is okay because hers was fast; agrees with me about Rash; pot vs. kettle about Lowell; cites his vindictiveness and lack of cooperation; admits that the problem is Lowell’s style and unvotes; vaguely suspicious of Tony again.

Remember that clearing Tony was her reason for looking back at Lowell. The inverse doesn’t make sense so the return to suspicion on Tony is odd. Here she clears Lowell for his playstyle. She says she did a meta read on him which, due to later posts, seems untrue. Hence me trying to trap her later.

17 – Sarcastic reply to Darox.
18 – Agrees with both bionic and Rash, which is odd because they are disagreeing with each other. Thinks arguing is the best way to hunt scum.

Strange, because she hasn’t done any arguing and, earlier, thought Lowell’s ruthlessness was reason to vote him.

19 - Hurried Lowell hammer that is not actually a hammer; cites that he is “blatantly” doing what she accused and cleared him of earlier.

This is the second (and worst) smoking gun. Wolf doesn’t claim that Lowell has done anything different. She only claims that he is doing the same stuff “blatantly.” She doesn’t say more blatantly. IMO, he was doing it blatantly before and, if she really did that meta read she’d know, he does it blatantly as a matter of course.

20 – Cites miscount; says Darox will be a better D2 lynch, leaving Lowell as the D1 lynch.

The pre-planning tell was already pointed out. I agree.

21 – Expands Lowell case to include his ambivalence of opinion which does not agree with his stubborn voting; thinks Lowell’s analysis is outside his normal playstyle and therefore suspicious; denies herself the n00b card, saying, “if I can’t just hold in one scummy thought;” says she likes next-day game plans (because scum may kill her suspects?); slippery defense vs. Oman.

Thos post is where I started to suspect that wolf didn’t read Lowell because, contrary to what she says, posting a detailed analysis shortly before his death is a part of his standard playstyle. The “scummy thought” line seems like another slip because she cites wanting to hold in those thoughts (aka keep them secret) even though a townie shouldn’t be having them in the first place. Though I didn’t cite the minor instances earlier, wolf does the slippery defense thing a few times. It’s not a smoking gun, but does suggest manipulation and therefore dishonesty.

22 – EBWOP to say she has nothing else to add.
23 – Offers to clarify the waffling I pointed out.

Never does.

24 – Questions Oman for clarification.
25 – NK is strange; preempts suspicion of Darox, Tony, and Tommy.

Why these three? This will come in handy later. My bet is that, if wolf is scum, at least one is a buddy.

26 – Asks questions about Darox’s post with a serious misread of his meaning.
27 - Clears up the last post.
28 – Continues from the last post, wonders why I suggested something far fetched.

Misrep of what I said, because I stated that it wasn’t likely (which is far from suggesting it to be true) but a lot of time has passed so we can probably let this slide.

29 – Doesn’t like Darox’s vote because it lacks reasoning.
30 – Agrees with Fhq vs. Lowell; claims to be “gathering a list” on her three suspects; drops slanted suspicion on Darox in the form of warning Oman about him.

There’s that mysterious list. Why don’t we ever see it?

31 – Side-steps my trap, cites the games from her meta of Lowell.
32 – EBWOP due to bad links.
33 – Check in.
34 – Brings up the Tommy-defending-Tony case after bionic does; again cites her mysterious list.

Again with the agreement that seems required before wolf can state a serious opinion. She refers to the list as if it exists but I still doubt that it does.

35 – Elaborates on the Tommy-defending-Tony case, claims to have been “saving it” without reason; votes Tommy.

This is pretty bad. Two of the three times that wolf mentioned her list, she was claiming to be working on it which suggests that she intends to share it when she is done. Now she cites it for the first time and claims that she’s been keeping this information close to her chest for (1) a long time and (2) no reason. This begs a ton of questions. Why would she promise a future list if she already had some of it? Why would she have claimed to have had it for a extensive amount of time when not long ago she was still working on it? Why would she keep it quiet when she was so intent on gaining others’ tacit information (option c) and decrying other players for not sharing reasoning (Darox and Tony)? None of this makes sense from a wolf-as-town perspective.

36 – EBWOP to fix the quote tags.
37 – Misrepresents the case on Tony, diminishing it in scope to claim that all cases are based on a single point: his lack of 3E.
38 – You too, Darox (though in his case it is more accurate).

The case on Tony is a little more elaborate than that, why is she simplifying it? Is it a move to protect Tony? To protect Darox? This is another bit that will be useful later.

39 – Makes an argument to hang Tommy or Tony; she claims that Tony should hang because he can’t defend himself, and that Tommy should hang because Tony has already said everything Tommy will say. What?

None of this makes any logical sense at all. It looks to me like wolf, a relatively new player, does not understand the ramifications of buddying behavior but is trying to blather her way to a conclusion without sounding scummy. Fail.

40 – Adds me to the anti-Tony after I have withdrawn.

Could be an honest mistake. I’ll let it lie for now.

41 – Thinks defending is only scummy if it’s done more frequently.

Not true at all. Not really scummy to be wrong though.

42 – Not sure if I’m interpreting this correctly, but I think she’s arguing that because many players suspected Lowell, somehow it is not coincidence that two scummy players have attacked Tony.

I’d like this post explained or clarified before I base a read on my own interpretation, which is really just a guess. The post is very vague.

43 – She’s not assuming both Tommy and Tony are scum.

Then what was the deal with her #39 (iso)? It’s either one or the other.

44 – Wants to know if I have a new case.
45 – Compares Tony to Darox, finding Darox more informative.

This is 100% poppycock. Is she reading the same game I am? Note that, if wolf is scum, this either identifies the buddy in her top three suspects or she is a much better player than she’s letting on.

46 – Complains about low posting rate.

Conclusions

This is just what wolf has done as an individual. When I spoke of her earlier, I also mentioned a few things that others had done that implicated her. Together, these two types of information make her the obvious choice for today’s lynch.

In retrospect, I believe that her own actions are enough to hang her on. Particularly damning are the smoking guns I pointed out, the rarity of original opinions from her, and her mysterious list which probably doesn’t even exist. I am, of course, willing to entertain defenses but, from where I’m at right now, I doubt wolf will manage to clear herself.

Note that I am not advocating an immediate lynch. We have lots more info to gather. However, expect me to be pressuring her from here on out and, unless she somehow manages to clear herself IMO, expect me to be voting her when the day ends.

[Darox]

A wise man once said - if there is nothing happening, vote!. Well maybe a wise man never said that, but one probably should.

##unvote;##vote Darox

mostly for voting and then all the reasons given for the vote have occurred after the vote.

Wrong.

Read my reasons again and you will find it is listed in chronological order and that my vote is at the end.

[Oman]

Guess whose drunk!>!>!


Darox is totally town, dropt his shit.

Also, Crywolf totally has scumtraits, but could be town. He seems to be stumbling more than leading the town in bad directions, so I'll put him down to porkens.

These tweo wagons are bogus.

[Oman]

Guess whose drunk!>!>!


Darox is totally town, dropt his shit.

Also, Crywolf totally has scumtraits, but could be town. He seems to be stumbling more than leading the town in bad directions, so I'll put him down to porkens.

These tweo wagons are bogus.

[gorckat]

**Tony has been prodded**

Pick it up, folks. Only one person is being replaced, but a number of people are pushing the activity guidelines to the limit.

[Darox]

**Tony has been prodded**

Pick it up, folks. Only one person is being replaced, but a number of people are pushing the activity guidelines to the limit.

Marathon day and the associated Grey Screen of Death's may have something to do with it.

I know it's slowing me down.

[Ythill]

Just checking in. I see that nobody has commented on my PbPA... unless Oman's drunk double post counts.

[crywolf20084]

Just checking in. I see that nobody has commented on my PbPA... unless Oman's drunk double post counts.

I'm not all that sure that it does... Lets wait to see if he comes up with a sober post.

ANd in the way of a defence, I don't have much to say as I'm really busy writing a paper right now. Monday I'll probably will have a post.

[bionicchop2]

Just checking in. I see that nobody has commented on my PbPA... unless Oman's drunk double post counts.

While it is an in-depth PbPA against someone I think has acted scummy (and my votes have reflected this feeling) recent scum hunting errors by myself lead me to believe crywolf may actually be town. I am finding most actions I have previously deemed scummy are actually just mistakes made by town players scrambling to lynch scum. If she were an experienced player, I might suspect a gambit of being overtly scummy. I think in reality, newbie scum would be much more cautious than she has been and not thrown a vote around as much as she has.

I am going to try and do a personal vote analysis some time this weekend and see if it gets me anywhere since my previous thoughts on scum hunting are slowly proving to be completely false on most counts as I complete games.

[gorckat]

**Tony has been prodded**

Pick it up, folks. Only one person is being replaced, but a number of people are pushing the activity guidelines to the limit.

Marathon day and the associated Grey Screen of Death's may have something to do with it.

I know it's slowing me down.

True, true- forgot about Marathon Day, and there have been more than a few CPU errors recently.

[Oman]

Just checking in. I see that nobody has commented on my PbPA... unless Oman's drunk double post counts.

While it is an in-depth PbPA against someone I think has acted scummy (and my votes have reflected this feeling) recent scum hunting errors by myself lead me to believe crywolf may actually be town. I am finding most actions I have previously deemed scummy are actually just mistakes made by town players scrambling to lynch scum. If she were an experienced player, I might suspect a gambit of being overtly scummy. I think in reality, newbie scum would be much more cautious than she has been and not thrown a vote around as much as she has..

Wait, so because you've been wrong before you're doubting yourself?

[Tommy]

I've just asked gorckat to replace me. I moved to London during Night 1 and started a new job - I don't know if you noticed my level of engagement drop since then. I've been finding it difficult to squeeze Mafia in. Sorry guys - I thought I'd be able to handle the commitment, but it's not working.

**replaced by pickemgenius**

[Rashiminos]

@Ythill

I thought some of the points about lack of originality were good, but I don't recall anything that was outright plagiarism. If you have a quote that you think epitomizes this quality of her play in this game, I'd like to see you present it.

Some of the other points have possible outside-the-game explanations.

[bionicchop2]

Just checking in. I see that nobody has commented on my PbPA... unless Oman's drunk double post counts.

While it is an in-depth PbPA against someone I think has acted scummy (and my votes have reflected this feeling) recent scum hunting errors by myself lead me to believe crywolf may actually be town. I am finding most actions I have previously deemed scummy are actually just mistakes made by town players scrambling to lynch scum. If she were an experienced player, I might suspect a gambit of being overtly scummy. I think in reality, newbie scum would be much more cautious than she has been and not thrown a vote around as much as she has..

Wait, so because you've been wrong before you're doubting yourself?

No, I am rethinking what I consider scum tells. Consistently having town players as the scummiest means I am viewing town 'mistakes' as scum tells and the thought process needs to be revised. If I theorize only scum would do an action and then town players do that action several games in a row, I obviously can't use it to hunt scum anymore.

[Oman]

Just checking in. I see that nobody has commented on my PbPA... unless Oman's drunk double post counts.

While it is an in-depth PbPA against someone I think has acted scummy (and my votes have reflected this feeling) recent scum hunting errors by myself lead me to believe crywolf may actually be town. I am finding most actions I have previously deemed scummy are actually just mistakes made by town players scrambling to lynch scum. If she were an experienced player, I might suspect a gambit of being overtly scummy. I think in reality, newbie scum would be much more cautious than she has been and not thrown a vote around as much as she has..

Wait, so because you've been wrong before you're doubting yourself?

No, I am rethinking what I consider scum tells. Consistently having town players as the scummiest means I am viewing town 'mistakes' as scum tells and the thought process needs to be revised. If I theorize only scum would do an action and then town players do that action several games in a row, I obviously can't use it to hunt scum anymore.

Thank god. I thought I was gonna have to bitch slap you.

You consistently make me happy to play games on this site, you're a champ.

[gorckat]

**Tommy has requested replacement**

[Ythill]

@Rash: After wolf responds, I'd like you to share your outside-the-game explanations for the points I touched on in my conclusion (2 smoking guns and wolf's list).

Meanwhile... why is "outright plagiarism" scummier than standard aping? What I find suspicious about her copy-cat play is that she bases her stances on the existence of outside support rather than evidence or her own opinions about what is scummy play. I don't think the tell requires robot-like posting.

Tommy - why did you feel the need to answer for Tony there?

Aha! So I'm not the only one that has noticed that. There has been several instences where you, Tommy have been either quick to defend, or quick to answer for Tony, and it hasn't been just recent. I have been keeping track of that for quiet some time now.

In this instance, wolf claims to have been tracking a behavior for some time but didn't say anything about it until someone else brought it up. In this case she may have been waiting for town support or, more likely, felt the need to pretend fore-knowledge when bionic brought up a possible link between two of her stated suspects.

Only if no one manages to

make themselves look scummier

and a deadline threatens, but I find this unlikely.

I find this phrasing interesting. Town are looking out for people who are actually acting scummy. Scum are looking out for townies who are making themselves look scummy.

I highly agree with this.

...and then, in the same post...

iamausername argues that lynching someone for anti-town behavior is not what we should be doing. Instead we should be lynching scum. I want to know what iamausername thinks the difference is in these two categories of lynch reasons.

I saw that too, but when I saw you posted it i didn't feel like quoteing it myself.

I do want to know what the difference. Yes sometimes town does give off scum vibes, but are those not the vibes you should follow to make sure that, ehem, you get the scum????

Here we have wolf citing agreement with two sides of an argument. On the surface, this suggests that she is waiting to lean whichever way the argument goes. However, having looked at a couple of points that suggest a relationship between she and Darox, this

could

be her way of discrediting his attacker while appearing to side with him. Either way, it is telling.

Note that in the last quote wolf again claims to have seen something previously but has refrained from talking about it.

@wolf:

Why

didn't you bring up Tommy's defenses of Tony or the chink in user's argument when you noticed them?

[bionicchop2]

OK. Here is my updated scum analysis based on voting:

These are broken into 3 tiers. Scummiest vote patterns, slightly confusing vote patterns which I need to back check more games for examples of. Their similarities make me think this is mostly a town group. Ironically the last group of players who are least likely to be scum (which would have included iamusername and Lowell if they were still alive) only has the person my vote was on.

##unvote Darox

===============
Elias
Crywolf
Tommy
Oman
===============
TonyMontana
Rashiminos
Yhtill
fhqwhgads
===============
Darox
===============

To break down the first group a little:

Elias - has been completely lurking and posting only the minimal amount to not get replaced. Active elsewhere on the site. Was last active when I posted a case against him. My meta read was unreliable, but again I find him exhibiting traits of scum.

Crywolf - voting pattern actually supports the in game actions for once. It is very likely we have a case of new scum here.

Tommy - not much to add here. This fits my suspicion he may be scum defending a townie.

Oman - always a tough read. Voting and posting of Oman would put him in this group. Replacing in does throw analysis off a little or I would probably have him higher.

Note: I am not going into too much detail on my reasoning, but anybody interested enough can look at the voting on their own to understand where my suspicion comes from. The reality is that if this proves to be fairly accurate in narrowing down suspects, it will quickly lose relevance as people adapt.

Final thoughts: My gut is to go with a vote on crywolf. The catch here is I remembered elias defending crywolf as a newbie. Scum defending town or scum defending scum? Both players I feel are worthy of my vote. If both are scum, I think elias is more dangerous to town and should be eliminated sooner.

##vote elias

[fhqwhgads]

Checking in.

Was unexpectantly V/LA for the weekend, so I will pick up my posting from tomorrow.

Just a few points:

1) Ythill's case on crywolf is thought provoking, but I'll have to reread it, as I was only skimming it. I first dismissed it by thinking she's obviously a newbie. But, I then realised this is an unfair way of excusing her behaviour. Add to this that I usually don't like meta or newbieness to influence my decisions.

2) Oman has been pointing out a lot who he thinks is town. How about pointing out who he thinks is scum?

[gorckat]

Vote Count

(6 to lynch)

Darox (2):

TonyMontana, fhqwhgads

TonyMontana (2):

Darox, Oman

Tommy:

crywolf

Ythill:

Rashiminos

crywolf:

Ythill

Elias:

bionic

Not voting (2):

Elias, Tommy

[TonyMontana]

*prod recieved*

rough end of week..
I find ythills analysis of wolf very interesting, but I'm still feeling good about my vote on darox.

[bionicchop2]

Vote Count

(6 to lynch)

Darox (2):

TonyMontana, fhqwhgads

TonyMontana (2):

Darox, Oman

Tommy:

crywolf

Ythill:

Rashiminos

crywolf:

Ythill

Elias:

bionic

Not voting (2):

Elias, Tommy

I think we should get some focus and condense some votes.

[Ythill]

That's an odd request from someone who just moved his vote from a frontrunner to an unknown. Two of your four suspects are being voted by others, why not focus on one of them?