I think the early game points to Johnny as Town. They had an early vote for UC Voyager that probably doesn’t come from a Partner. UC Voyager was trying to play along with a joke Johnny made, and Johnny
SR them for it, and put a vote down
. I find that highly unusual for Partners. Just because Johnny ate up the Informed Claim from FMFT does not undo that. And I should have been more careful.
I am also less beholden to Lukewarm’s reads at this stage, since they so grossly misread Kyouko (
248). I feel somewhat better about my read there early.
251 - this is a post I’ve thought a lot about. I doubt UC Voyager expresses SRs of their two Partners at that stage of the game. I don’t see the need for it. But notice that they TR STD, and SR Italiano and Gamma. All of these players are still alive.
As a side note, there’s clearly a lot of seemingly coordinated play between Italiano and STD this game. That much is obvious. And Kyouko and Gamma both pushed Italiano, and now we know that Kyouko is Town, so Gamma looks somewhat better for it. As a theory point, I know Scum do attach themselves to Town to make it harder to nail their true Partners. STD could be doing this. In fact, this cost me in a different game (making the wrong conclusion about two slots being Scum together).
I would also like to say that, Noraa deserves credit for
258. We should have listened.
273 - In hindsight, this looks suspicious. Is this Scum Italiano digging their heels against Town Kyouko?
334 - This seems like more evidence that Johnny is solid, and probably Town.
342,
345 are easy posts to make. Yeah of course you’re shading Johnny when you probably know I’m Town (my content up to then wasn’t any good outside of just clashing with Noraa). And then tying yourself up with me in that way is clever. If you flip Scum, you probably somewhat sink me. If I flip Town, you look good.
430 - I need to start listening to my own early reads sometimes. If there’s one thing I hate about my own play is that I can be so indecisive. I was fucking right, and I didn’t stick to it. Why? Because I need to get better as a player.
482 - there’s something deeply fascinating about this post. Italiano is not in the list at all. They had a tremendous amount of content, and had engaged in a few spats with players already. Yet, no read there. How is that believable?
—
There’s something that must be said though - ItalianoVD seems a bit of a try hard this game. They’ve been off about a few things, but they certainly put out a lot of content and didn’t avoid any controversies. I need to be careful not to jump to any quick and silly conclusions.
At the same time,
522 is a fascinating vote. RLotus is getting wagoned pretty hard at this point, and STD has jumped on the RLotus wagon that formed with mostly Town on it (Noraa and Kyouko rounded out the first 4 voters, I know I’m Town, and I have a good feeling for Johnny), and they ignore that wagon and jump on Johnny. The least charitable interpretation is that Italiano is actively trying to avoid a Town execution that is about to happen and probably doesn’t need them to go through. The alternative is that they’re pushing a slot they truly believe in, and are correctly avoiding Town. Probably the latter, frankly.
547 - Is this posturing? VFP has expressed intent on RLotus at this stage. Yet Fox comes out with outrage as to why RLotus is getting wagoned. But the reasoning is somewhat off. RLotus didn’t seem confused to me, just somewhat unsure of who to SR. There’s a difference.
571 - And then Italiano does the same thing. They also didn’t like the RLotus wagon, and quoted multiple posts were they had expressed a TR and doubted the reasoning behind the SR.
597 - I really don’t know what to make of this. Is this distancing? Really hard to say. My guess is no, but who knows.
688 - This, though, is just Scummy. This from Fox gives me such a bad feeling. The wagon could potentially lose momentum, I come out to say that RLotus is approaching obvious levels of Town, and Fox attacks RLotus at a key moment. And this after posturing around at the potential flip. You know what changed? Before, Town clearly seemed eager to eliminate RLotus. However, the voices to avoid RLotus began to grow a bit louder. So then Fox posts this. Incredible.
—
If Kyouko’s instinct was correct in that FMFT was a Scum “sacrifice”, the votes in
730 and
731 could be seen as suspicious ones. Fox’s vote come after there’s already substantial pressure from Dunn, VFP, and Italiano, so it’s the most likely one to be a bus.
And what’s up with
747? Italiano had literally JUST voted FMFT, but then questions how some of those posts are too brazen for Scum? It doesn’t make sense.
767 - Out of all of the votes for FMFT, this feels less likely to be a bus. There’s no hard SR, just confusion and a vote. It’s not even explained in much detail. But it’s also
late
. And that’s revealing in a different way.
779 - This doesn’t read to me like a Scummy post. It’s not directly attacking me for my read, it’s just stating that their read was genuine. Should I be more positive on Gamma?
796 - By now, a few players have expressed that they want FMFT to stay alive. And out of nowhere, Max switches onto Town. It’s almost as if the plan was to distance hard, even bus, but when it’s possible that maybe the Scum don’t have to execute one of their own, they decide to move away.
863 - And this is a terrible post from Fox. VFP’s conviction that Fox was Scum looks well founded at this stage.
—
Gamma having Kyouko as confirmed Town at the beginning of D3 is overly strong. Could it be Town and correct? Yes. And in a way, clearing Kyouko there makes little sense from Scum. STD begins here by attacking that conclusion, and strongly attacks Gamma in
929. I don’t think this is SvS, ever.
996 - Like in my head, I had moved away from a SR of Italiano. But then, this post makes me question myself a bit. STD is hammering on Gamma right, arguing that FMFT went rogue and decided to push a claim out there that Gamma didn’t consent to, putting them in a bad spot. It’s absolutely possible, I’ll admit. But Gamma’s responses and emotional content do seem of Town that is trying really hard not to get executed (which is what Noraa saw as well). And then Italiano comes with this post and backs up STD’s push. Sigh.
1009 - This solve is clearly horrific from Gamma though.
1023 - If Max is indeed Scum, this feels like a key post. Would they so openly defend their Partner? I don’t know.
1068 - This makes it seem like Max and Gamma are Partners. Noraa clearly has developed a strong SR of Max. And Gamma jumps in to defend there, arguing that the logic is bad. And VFP by now also clearly thinks Gamma is overwhelmed as Scum. We now know that both Noraa and VFP are Town.
1082 - This is objectively a bad post. Accusing Noraa of Scum motivation there just seems desperate.
1144 - At this stage, does Scum fight Kyouko’s case on VFP? Italiano arguing that they don’t believe it is not what I would expect Scum to do in this particular circumstance. And they’re sticking to their reads. This is definitely Town positive.
—
1172 - This
could
be distancing. I certainly wouldn’t dismiss it.
Maybe it is STD actually?
1207 through
1211 is a very interesting sequence. I don’t know that Gamma attacks Max as aggressively as they do here if they are Partners. That’s mainly because they’re in a strong position generally if they’re both Scum, and this is unnecessary.