Mini Normal 2205: RotITGBSMoD [game over!]

[clidd]

Or a contrary consensus advocating my elimination for information (if people want a more difficult game mode).

[clidd]

[DkKoba]

Or a contrary consensus advocating my elimination for information (if people want a more difficult game mode).

ok i kinda laughed at this, cuz like i relate its like "u want to make this game hard? lim me then"

[Datisi]

vote count 3.11

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-05-07 10:00:00).

execution

DkKoba [2]:

Anya, Andresvmb

clidd [2]:

InsidiousLemons, Asteria

InsidiousLemons [2]:

DkKoba, clidd

VFP [1]:

osuka

not voting [2]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, VFP

mod notes

~ one two seven three

flavour

[Datisi]

prodding andresvmb.

[Andresvmb]

I was about to post and got prodded. Nice.

[Andresvmb]

Look at that beautiful distribution amongst the guns.

I have a theory that the Scum are waiting on whoever isn’t voting to consolidate, instead of giving us clues as to where we should go. Annoying.

[Andresvmb]

VOTE: clidd

I want to see an execution at this point. I’m a bit tired of all the speculation. It’s time we push something through.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

lemons - asteria - andres?

anyway

VOTE: Lemons

let's see what happens

[Anya]

i didn't realise i walked into the dkkoba fan convention

i'll ship out lemons over clidd if it comes to it

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

are you very sure of koba scum ?

[Anya]

only one in the 4 i actually feel is wolfy i've said why

clidd has a permit and lemons/asteria could go either way

[VFP]

you have dk paired with 3 other possible scum. doesn't that make it the worst elimination in terms of information gain, since the entropy is only minimally decreased? if you have a lemons flip, for example, then your pool is smaller than it would be if you had a koba flip. how did you get to this point in your thought process?

I was purely talking about flipping scum.
I've made it clear that I want to lim in between the PRs not.VT.
Please read properly in the future is saves a lot of time.

[VFP]

I think I actually go Clidd here.
I was to the idea Lemons was the town of the 2 until that wierd comment but my gut is just saying Clidd is scum here.

VOTE: Clidd
Thats E1

[InsidiousLemons]

@Lemon

Just as an imagination exercise, how would your reads adapt to the town!Clidd scenario?

this would make my solve koba + asteria + VFP -- putting koba in place of you doesn't significantly affect my reads of the VT pool, since neither of you feel particularly linked to any one member of that pool, and asteria remains tied to VFP. in turn, at a glance, none of the VTs themselves have done anything major to try and dismantle a wagon on koba, or to defend them unnecessarily or suspiciously. mechanically, this means the scumteam is probably doc + goon + traitor since koba would be lying about an RB, but i'm not sure that this really affects much either. it's still a strange team versus N1 detective + N2 rolecop + GS, but assuming pooky's setup insight is true (and it is -- he has no reason to lie), i suppose it could at least be possible as an extremely WIFOM-y setup where town is in a race to clear people as non-killing roles on consecutive nights before all the claims are dead.

ultimately, though, my reads are based less upon the gamestate as a moment in time and more upon

changes

to the gamestate. the evidence for me just isn't there that this is the reality. if you were cleared as town, this information wouldn't just appear in a vaccuum, something would have to change. you do something that i believe is well outside the realm of possibility for scum!clidd, or someone clears you, or you flip. all of these things would affect my reads on other players more than just "assume clidd is town and go from there".

[InsidiousLemons]

As a whole Dk feels like the right option here as they are linked 3 of 4 to be scum.

you have dk paired with 3 other possible scum. doesn't that make it the worst elimination in terms of information gain, since the entropy is only minimally decreased? if you have a lemons flip, for example, then your pool is smaller than it would be if you had a koba flip. how did you get to this point in your thought process?

I was purely talking about flipping scum.
I've made it clear that I want to lim in between the PRs not.VT.
Please read properly in the future is saves a lot of time.

this doesn't really follow for me. osuka is asking you what a Dk scumflip means about other players, and what your plan is for

after

the flip. and you don't seem to have one, or even to have thought about who the most likely partner is for Koba to have within the gun pool, which doesn't indicate to me that you really believe they're going to flip scum. correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like the last time you proposed or agreed with a solve was back in 3435, before everyone had even claimed. i can believe that the questions at the bottom of 3938 were asked with the desire to

formulate

this plan, but by 4037 you've got all your answers and seem no closer to a solution.

[InsidiousLemons]

The change of instance of Dk on Anya is a bit radical, but not necessarily scummy, maybe town "omgusing". Anya has reflected me as generic town for a while due to the organic way of posting, but I would not rule out the chance of scum!she, although I would also had to

force my mind to accept that Osuka and Andres are both town

to accept such scenario.

pedit: I can vote there too.

you may have said this already, but can you explain why you're so confident that Osuka v Andres is svt?

[InsidiousLemons]

Spoiler:

@Lemon

Assuming that your elimination occurs today, do you have final reads?

aight here goes hail mary readslist time

GUN POOL (2 scum):

clidd: the second most likely to be scum, and my personal pick for an elim today. a large part of the reason comes from the knowledge of my own role -- i don't think d1 detective/n2 rolecop/gunsmith is nearly strong enough. as i've said before, it's strongly suspect to me that salsa wouldn't reveal their N1 check info. asteria plus clidd is absolutely an acceptable combination to me and i find it strange that VFP

koba:

asteria:

lemons: idk check was kinda sus :/

VT POOL (1 scum)

osuka:

anya:

andres:

VFP:

pooky: conf-VT

And this was "hey, look, I don't have a PT to post" ^

town can request a drafts PT too. not sure how me not doing that is AI

from the first post:

miscellaneous:

~ let me know if you want a private thread to store your thoughts and feedback for the other players. you may draft posts in your notes pt if the posts are clearly meant to be posted in the main thread. you may not directly quote from the notes pt. you may not use it to demonstrate that you've had a town mindset in private all along; just put your town mindset in public to begin with and keep your notes to yourself.

[InsidiousLemons]

can you point to examples of what you think is a fabricated thought process?

and finally, still no response from clidd on this, other than:

Lemon + Asteria + Osuka is my solve.

"i think that post was generated, and i find your thought process scummy" (3990, 3991, 3994) is an easy attack to make and a hard one to defend against because the only real response is "well, you're wrong, my thought process there

was

coming from a town perspective." a great way to resolve this is to point out specific instances where the logic doesn't follow through and press your target on them, which clidd doesn't seem interested in doing.

Or a contrary consensus advocating my elimination for information (if people want a more difficult game mode).

poof! you have 2 more wishes

i'm headed to work in 3 hours, and will be around to answer questions until then. i recognize that my presence in this thread has been pretty light over the course of my bday weekend, and i thank you for letting me take that time without running me up to E-1 or a lim. if i'm at work before clidd responds, please no one activate hardmode until he has a chance to respond to being put at E-1

[InsidiousLemons]

putting koba in place of you [editor's note: clidd] doesn't significantly affect my reads of the VT pool, since neither of you feel particularly linked to any one member of that pool

a slight correction: i don't find it very likely that koba and anya are scum together, so if the combination is somehow scum!koba, scum!asteria, town!vfp, then clidd and vfp flipping green in this universe would affect my

next

most likely scum in the VT pool (after VFP). in that scenario there would be scum between osuka and andres, which i guess could be clidd's line of reasoning as he believes vfp and anya to be town. i'm not going to do an ISO comb for both of these players (osuka and andres) to determine which one is more likely to be scum, because now we're talking about an elim that isn't on the table today and likely isn't even on the table in this universe. if circumstances necessitate a thorough analysis of who is scum between osuka and andres, i'll do one, but i don't think it's needed for the purposes of an imagination exercise.

[InsidiousLemons]

asteria plus clidd is absolutely an acceptable combination to me and i find it strange that VFP doesn't seem to agree.

So scum decide to push each others wagons (as the second votes) without attempting for a different wagon in the PRs?
Why is it strange that I don't agree with this in particular considering others also aren't thinking a different direction?

This part of the comment is just wierd, and you were doing yourself a favour until this point.

yeah, i don't really see this as that implausible. like i said, i don't think clidd expected asteria to be the elim today from the outset, so it's an easy method of distancing when she eventually does flip. asteria was the second-last vote on the dragons wagon, and 2106 looks like LAMIST trying to cover her tracks. she wasn't on the T3 wagon, but that makes sense since she wasn't even in the thread for its entire duration. if she knows clidd is scum, then as scum herself she needs to start attaching her name to early scum pushes and eventual elims at

some

point, or she'll have nothing to fall back on when she isn't the NK tonight. it doesn't look good for asteria to just take the push on her from clidd without pushing back. again, it's an attempt at distancing, and perhaps asteria didn't truly believe clidd's wagon would go this far either.

since i think there's equity between you and asteria already, i wanted to call you specifically on the conjecture that clidd v asteria is tvs, though i also simply didn't see anyone else suggesting that idea. if my solve is correct, you have something to gain from making this point by putting further distance between asteria and clidd after one of them flips.

also:

Asteria said something very interesting.
I'll take a break to re-check something.

"That" something, to be specific.

@clidd can you tell us what this was? i feel like it never came up again

@asteria if you don't die tonight, who are you checking and why?

[Asteria]

im thinking

lemons dies today-> townflip = clidd-scum, one scum btw koba/asteria

lemons dies today-> scumflip = clidd-town, one scum btw koba/asteria

lemons dies today-> scum rolecop flip, Koba-scum, Asteria/Clidd town

I think max 1 scum btw lemons/clidd because it wouldn't make sense for 2 scum to come out with gun counterclaims?

but max 1 town btw lemons/clidd because the townside is too weak with those being the 2 town.

I think that last points are reasonable. I personally would still much prefer clidd though

clidd townflip = lemons/koba scum from my pov. I don't think this happens.
clidd scumflip = lemons town, koba scum, I think you guys already said I'm likely not with clidd so you should be in a similar boat as me

@asteria if you don't die tonight, who are you checking and why?

I don't want to give an exact answer in case by some miracle I do survive to give my results, but I'm checking within the VT claims. I may go for someone I think is town in hopes to get a VT result clearing them. Or I'll go for a VT claim who I think is scum, because if I get back not VT then we know they're lying and scum.

[Asteria]

I still strongly believe my case on clidd/salsa is enough to say clidd is lying about being a town gun PR. The way they were acting before he claimed did not match up to what was claimed.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I still strongly believe my case on clidd/salsa is enough to say clidd is lying about being a town gun PR. The way they were acting before he claimed did not match up to what was claimed.

then why does clidd claim PR?

the PR gun pool is already huge

salsa's behavior doesnt match up with a pr claim

why jump into the pool? I dont see the scum motivation

[Asteria]

Idk, same motivation scum!lemons had to jump into the already large pool, whatever that is. Maybe clidd didn't think anyone would check how salsa was acting around the other claims.