Mini Normal 2191 | Endgame

[clidd]

One of the problems I have with this pool, however, is that I did three reevaluations of Nep during the game and in two I came to the conclusion that some of his behaviors between D1-D2 would not make much sense if they were coming from a scum pov.

He treating me and Chumbo as separate slots at the same time that he had one as towny and the other as scummy didn't seem like an instance that scum!Nep would get some advantage. He also made no effort to contextualize better motives other than playstyle to suspect me, which could easily be refuted by meta. It looked lazy and a little incompetent if that was a scum posture or agenda. The direct way in which he answered me when I addressed this topic also surprised me, because he effectively ignored what I had suggested (to delve into the reasons) so that I could have a better view on his reasoning. It wasn't important to him whether I understood his SR or not, and I imagine that scum!Nep wouldn't be interested in a 1v1 without support/material to guarantee his side and make the case more persuasive.

I mean, he can be scum by PoE, but he's playing at random if that's the case. Which makes me feel like I'm wrong in someone of my townpool.

[Sirius9121]

Zulfy Prod

[Sirius9121]

Samantha97 replaces Nepenthe. Please welcome them!

[clidd]

Zulfy Prod

Zulfy is dead.

Spoiler:

[clidd]

Samantha97 replaces Nepenthe. Please welcome them!

Welcome, Samantha.

The left side of my brain says that you're scum and the right side says that you're town.

Help me.

[Sirius9121]

Zulfy Prod

Zulfy is dead.

Spoiler:

this is the 3rd time i have done this

[samantha97]

The left side of my brain says that you're scum and the right side says that you're town.

Help me.

I thought I'd be mafia too when I read the thread (through page 7), but I'm a vanilla townie

gonna read the rest now but I skipped and spoiled zulfy's death, which is sad cause he seemed the most town out of everyone to that point lol

[Cabd]

I spent ten hours in a tiny server room cage today. I WILL be posting my thoughts tonight.

I am sorry IRL is conspiring to delay me.

[Cabd]

Right, okay.

I'm gonna piss half the room off by doing this in the order of setup spec and mechspec and THEN reads, but uh, tough.

Assumption 1: Mafia lacks a Role Blocker (or similar style role such as rolestop/JK/redirector)

There's a few reasons for this. Regardless of Fuzzy's case, I'd stated the potential for an investigate. Fuzzy, if town, has an investigate. Going into night one, there was at LEAST one town investigative in play as claimed. (And I'm starting to think two)

It follows that a roleblock on a town investigative made them MUCH more vulnerable to day-elim on day two when it came time to put up or shut up. The fact that this did not occur, therefore, tells me it is extremely unlikely that mafia sat on their hands with such a shot, instead of simply lacking it.

Assumption 2: Mafia lacks a Strongman

Once again, it follows that Mafia WITH a strongman shot ignores my wifom play about self-protective and shoots into the investigative roles. I don't really think this assumption is super controversial, but I can in-depth it if anyone actively needs it.


With me so far? These both lead into theory 3....

Assumption 3: The Normal Review Group does not allow "Follow the Cop"

Let's say for a second that I'm mafia, and that we have maxwell-fuzzy town. We still have a "cop" in Fuzzy that can get up to two innocent confirms, even if forced to claim day one, by the doctor protecting. Mafia lack a strongman and lack a roleblocker. How do they counter this night play? A neighborizer sure isn't it. The only thing left I could think of would be giving them a way to doc-hunt. As in, an investigative of their own. So in this scumcabd world, presumably I'm actually rolecop or the like.

Okay? So now let's go over this with reality, that I'm town cop. A doctor existing means that, in an even stronger case than the above, mafia is FUCKED if they cannot find the doctor super early. Let's humor and say that all three strong PR claims are true. That means that mafia is staring down two investigative abilities per night phase, and a coin flip if the doctor protects between claimed cop roles, at even getting a kill through on them. If anyone thinks that a world exists where the setup is cop, neo-cop, doctor, 1-shot neighborizer, VTs... vs two mafia that have no blocks or strongman, please speak up now.

No? Okay, cool.

Moving along, then....

[Umlaut]

Cabd, I think you just convinced me that you're scum.

There is no way the setup has a cop

and

a doctor

and

scum didn't block or kill you last night. I'd sooner believe a second investigative than I would that.

VOTE: Cabd

[Cabd]

Yeah, I'm getting to that....

I don't think we have a doctor for several reasons, dude.

[Cabd]

Not least of which is that the "doctor's" target wasn't either of the claims on the board.

[Cabd]

But your vote assumes maxwell is telling the truth without hesitation. Interesting.

[samantha97]

ok hi I'm caught up

There is no way the setup has a cop

and

a doctor

and

scum didn't block or kill you last night. I'd sooner believe a second investigative than I would that.

That was my mindset as I was reading the end of day 1; I knew right away they were lying about joat, and my cynicism made me see it through the lens of them excusing mafia choosing someone else to kill. The counter argument to that is that they have to survive more than just that night and they claimed regular cop now, but then that "why would I do that?" argument can also be used as a shield by mafia. The nightkill pool was always going to be one of cabd/clidd/bendover based on everyone's station at the end of that day.

I'm glad bendover was nked though because that makes this day a lot simpler

there's 7 people alive and everyone is roleclaimed, and since I know I'm town the only logical thing to do today is to VOTE: maduisha

process of elimination should make tomorrow simple too

[Umlaut]

Not least of which is that the "doctor's" target wasn't either of the claims on the board.

...that's a good point.

UNVOTE: Cabd

Let's hear the rest of it.

[Cabd]

only logical thing to do today is to VOTE: maduisha

How did you get here?

[Cabd]

I think that the setup is something like this:

Town

Cop
2-shot Neocop
1-shot Neighborizer
VT
VT
VT
VT

vs

Mafia

Rolecop
Goon

Neocop has four potential "clears" and therefore slightly below 50-50 odds of getting a clear or not, shooting randomly (assuming a town mislim D1). Cop gets hard guilties or innos. Neither has any protection when claimed.

[samantha97]

How did you get here?

the part preceding it

cabd: cop
clidd: ??? town result + neighbor
maxwell: doctor
fuzzy: neopolitan
umlaut: neighborizer
maduisha: vanilla
me: vanilla

tomorrow 5 will likely be alive, and we'll have the information from your role and/or fuzzy's, or information in the lack of information, plus the death result(s)

although I did take for granted neighborizer would be town, and I just looked it up and saw it can be any

basically you get more from leaving power roles (fake or not) sans neighborizer alive today than a vanilla, and since I know I am vanilla that leaves the other vanilla or neighborizer

[maxwell]

Thats about the response I expected. Are you seriously trying to claim in a rolecop/goon setup, I replace in and try to kill neither of two claimed investigatives? When doing so risks getting guiltied into autoloss? Or that I try to push an elimination on, BY FAR, the more difficult vote of the two? As scum I'd have gotten 4 votes on fuzzy with no problem.


Well, honestly, I'm not here to spar with you, the ones I need to talk to are fuzzy, clidd, and samantha (strongly suspect maduisha's read is a positional one at this point). Here to talk to them, not to yell at you.

[Cabd]

If you think the doctor is town, and at least one of the investigatives is town, wouldn't you want to no-lim and force an extra clear that way?

[samantha97]

If you think the doctor is town, and at least one of the investigatives is town, wouldn't you want to no-lim and force an extra clear that way?

I don't think anyone is town except clidd, but I also never even considered not lynching someone lol

but having considered it now, no, I wouldn't want to do that, because then we only could mess up once... right?

[maxwell]

How did you get here?

the part preceding it

cabd: cop
clidd: ??? town result + neighbor
maxwell: doctor
fuzzy: neopolitan
umlaut: neighborizer
maduisha: vanilla
me: vanilla

tomorrow 5 will likely be alive, and we'll have the information from your role and/or fuzzy's, or information in the lack of information, plus the death result(s)

although I did take for granted neighborizer would be town, and I just looked it up and saw it can be any

basically you get more from leaving power roles (fake or not) sans neighborizer alive today than a vanilla, and since I know I am vanilla that leaves the other vanilla or neighborizer

We miss today, scum just claims a fake guilty in ELo, that 'information' isn't worth much, and theres always one player who unthinkingly sheeps it (fuzzy looks like he'd follow cabd off a cliff at this point). Entirely better to resolve the claims today, you can eliminate me for all I care if you promise to sheep me.


As it is, your vote on maduisha stands basically no chance of getting through, you're more suspected than her by everyone except me because of nepenthe's inactivity and it's not really likely you're going to be able to shift those impressions given the amount of time and the gamestate.

[maxwell]

It's also telling because scum are going to be unwilling to bus today given that doing so puts them in a guaranteed loss.

[samantha97]

then we only could mess up once... right?

what I meant there was that the next day would be lylo?

if we lynch today the pool would be reduced and we'd have 2 shots instead of 1, unless I'm missing something

[maxwell]

then we only could mess up once... right?

what I meant there was that the next day would be lylo?

if we lynch today the pool would be reduced and we'd have 2 shots instead of 1, unless I'm missing something

Yes, that's correct, we have one remaining miselimination before ELo.