Open 801: Trust Fall (Game Over)

[shellyc]

pagetop, 399 is the best post in this game

my absence (which you may notice has been across site) is NAI and caused by an out-of-game emergency

I'll also prob be back after marathons

[Equinox]

Trust Count 1.12

Not Trusting (10) - Akarin, Fidget, Hectic, Jake The Wolfie, Rainbow Reads, Gloria Cleary, shellyc, Uncrowned, PookyTheMagicalBear, Necessary Sneasel

The deadline is Sunday, December 6, 2020, at 7:30 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2020-12-06 19:30:00).

[Necessary Sneasel]

Need to catch up, but this is a weird weekend to be making activity reads.

every weekend is a sucky weekend for activity reads

[Necessary Sneasel]

So why isn't Uncrowned just conf!town or gamethrowing scum? I don't see what mod confirmation has to do with it, if Uncrowned accepts a trust, he's out of the game and scum is that much closer to winning, right?

Haven't 2 players trusted Uncrowned at this point?

I did very briefly before he posted and before it occurred to me that a Pooky + uncrowned scumteam are incentivised to trust each other then untrust before any kind of mod activity confirms that the trust request was fake

Pooky is absolute lock scum unless he re-trusts uncrowned, removing the potential for them to be the scumteam gambiting

pooky reads scummy anyway and I don't think his cute act is going to win him enough favours so this doesn't really bother me

Necessary Sneasel, why'd you do a 180 on me?

see it you can find it

[Uncrowned]

SNEASEL

i saw you trust me

it was up for 4 hours

i didn't accept

[Fidget]

Whoops sorry.

I think your lockscumming of Pooky is caused by a misunderstanding of the setup because I fail to see how scum can accidentally guilty themselves. But it does reflect well on sneasel, I think, unless its blatantly obvious they dont believe whatever they're saying.

[Fidget]

Yeah no, not retrusting to cast a shadow on Uncrowned alignment makes no sense as a motive. Scum wins by trusting.

Uh no updates on Jake, Rainbow, or shelly really. I'm entertaining a slight paranoia of Pooky and Gloria although I do not remember who Gloria replaced.

Oh, I liked Rockhopper. We'll see then. I like Hectic and Akarin slightly which I guess is the best I can go off of in this setup although I wouldn't exactly say I'm willing to bet the game on these reads. Ironically at the same time I really think we should start pairing so we do have something to go off of.

[Akarin]

see it you can find it

I've looked again, I can't find it. You go from one scumread (Pooky) to me on the same page where all I did was post my Thanksgiving prod-dodge. Explain please?

[Akarin]

I ship Jake and Rainbow for first pair.

[Gloria Cleary]

I mean that

I

would be prodded. But I said a thing that wasn't "prodge" while I was catching up because I was over the timer.

I don't understand how anyone can even

have

a read on Rainbow Reads right now, guess I need to look at some of their games or something but just seems like nothing to go on at all.

I actually don't want to see Uncrowned paired off yet though, because I'd like some of the towniest voices to survive until late game.

I ship

Jake and

Rainbow

for first pair.

Why do you want to ship a player you just claimed to not have a read on? Why would you even suggest this?

[Akarin]

Because it would flip them now and the endgame would be actually readable players, and they don't seem like they're scumreading each other particularly.

[Gloria Cleary]

Whoops sorry.

I think your lockscumming of Pooky is caused by a misunderstanding of the setup because I fail to see how scum can accidentally guilty themselves. But it does reflect well on sneasel, I think, unless its blatantly obvious they dont believe whatever they're saying.

I don’t think Pooky is necessary lockscum by that but however Sneasel is correct about the setup. It is possible for scum to guilty themselves because if both scum trust each other then nothing happens, so yes if they do that then they are 100% guiltied.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

yea if uncrowned accepted me. but he didnt so!?!?!

[Akarin]

Like there's a significant chance Rainbow-Jake is T-T, and in that case we remove the... noise about their lack of noise from the game. And if one is scum we'll have just done the POE paranoia elim a bit earlier than doing it at endgame. If both are scum the pairing will fail and then game solved! (No way is it gonna be that easy.)

[Akarin]

Um, the POE thing doesn't make sense the way I just said it, but it makes sense logically if you think about it.

Neither is likely to be anyone's top townread or top scumread is what I mean.

[Gloria Cleary]

Because it would flip them now and the endgame would be actually readable players, and they don't seem like they're scumreading each other particularly.

We shouldn’t ship anyone unless we think they’re both town. If the majority think this then great but that’s the only way that makes sense.

Nothing about either has really pinged me either way but I want to hear from players who actually have reads on them. Like Sneasel and Fidget for example. I would be extremely shocked if either one of them flipped scum here, so I think I trust their reads the most.

[Akarin]

Yeah but that's exactly why pairing up, say, Fidget and Uncrowned is a bad idea. Better to keep them around longer and have some of the others pair first.

[Gloria Cleary]

Like there's a significant chance Rainbow-Jake is T-T, and in that case we remove the... noise about their lack of noise from the game. And if one is scum we'll have just done the POE paranoia elim a bit earlier than doing it at endgame. If both are scum the pairing will fail and then game solved! (No way is it gonna be that easy.)

We don’t want to ship a coin flip, we don’t want to chance flipping scum. Not that I sr either but this isn’t good reasoning.

I don’t want to ship anyone without some confident reads on them. If one is scum, do we get any associatives from that? Nevertheless, we shouldn’t ship anyone without having reads on them. The fact that they both te each other is irrelevant. One could possibly be wrong, couldn’t they? But if the majority think they’re more likely town than not, I’m totally onboard with it.

[Gloria Cleary]

Yeah but that's exactly why pairing up, say, Fidget and Uncrowned is a bad idea. Better to keep them around longer and have some of the others pair first.

I’m not opposed to Jake/Rainbow pairings. I just want to get some confident reads on them first. What’s wrong with that?

I’d like to see Fidget paired with Sneasel and stay closer to the end because they are my most confident townreads. But you are more confident on Uncrowned than Sneasel. Can you tell me why? He’s likely town but why do you read him townier than Sneasel?

[Akarin]

Of course they could be wrong. I'm despairing of ever having a good read on either of them though. I was liking Jake at first, that kind of faded, but I still think she's no worse than neutral.

I'm just not seeing at what point in the game we'll have any confident reads on either that don't seem reachy. But I can easily see both being less scummy than Pooky or whoever the group consensus ends up with in late game.

I think I'm like 0.01% more likely town than random on Jake and absolute coinflip on Rainbow, but I'm not sure I see it getting much better than that, and I see some value in removing them from the equation, because statistically everyone is a bit more likely town than scum anyway.

If we pair consensus town reads first we have no one trustworthy around to give opinions.

[Gloria Cleary]

Oh, hang on, that probably doesn't count as a contentful post

Pooky is my soul mason
Akarin is pleasant
Sneasle is reliable
Gloria is wholesome
Jake is awesome
Fidget is cute
Rainbow Reads is fun
shelly is inspiring
Uncrowned is adorable

That should do it

Can you tell me why Pooky is your “soul mason”?

Also, you’re either town here or pocketing me because no one here can read me better in this game than you. I lean town though because I think scum!you might possibly try to fake paranoia on me.

Please keep your dance card open for me later in the game. <3

[Akarin]

I actually almost proposed to Sneasel earlier today, not that I think he'd accept, but I'm having some paranoia there. I think he's probably more likely town than not but I don't know, something about the "I'm gonna pair with Akarin, somebody stop me" thing. Plus, if he is town, I wouldn't want him to actually accept anyway.

There's 4 hours after Sneasel proposed to Uncrowned where Uncrowned was admittedly not that active but

did

have a couple posts on site elsewhere and there's not enough scum for it to be Sneasel + Uncrowned + Pooky. So scum!Uncrowned should have paired with whichever was town, or either if they both were.

I don't see what the gambit does for Uncrowned here if scum, and it's possible that it's Pooky + Uncrowned and Uncrowned missed the Sneasel thing but I think that's

much

less likely than Sneasel seems to think it is.

[Gloria Cleary]

@Pooky, be a good bear and give me some reads please.

excuse me I am just trying to find a good match for my daughter.

Why can’t you give reads?

[Akarin]

You know how when you get like halfway through a normal game and you just want to eliminate those players who have done absolutely nothing towny all game and you can't stand them making it to endgame, but then they flip VT?

I feel like that's Jake and Rainbow.

[Gloria Cleary]

Yeah no, not retrusting to cast a shadow on Uncrowned alignment makes no sense as a motive. Scum wins by trusting.

Uh no updates on Jake, Rainbow, or shelly really. I'm entertaining a slight paranoia of Pooky and Gloria although I do not remember who Gloria replaced.

Oh, I liked Rockhopper. We'll see then. I like Hectic and Akarin slightly which I guess is the best I can go off of in this setup although I wouldn't exactly say I'm willing to bet the game on these reads. Ironically at the same time I really think we should start pairing so we do have something to go off of.

I’m curious as to why you have a slight paranoia on me but you apparently read my predecessor right so this question is more out of curiosity than anything.

Also tell me more about your Pooky paranoia. I’m trying to understand why they’re not giving reads. It really doesn’t make sense coming from either alignment.