Mini 653 - Family Guy Mafia - Game over

[LlamaFluff]

TT has been a lurker for most of this game and I sit about 50/50 on him, that makes him an acceptable lynch today given how many people we have completely bypassed. While lovers are preferable to me he is my second pick for lynchee right now.

Kloud I dont have a solid read on, very slight town read really. I wouldnt be surprised at all with Kloud turning up scum or turning up town. Kloud should of been in the "Dont want to lynch" today section though, I just missed his name.

[Xtoxm]

You would rather lynch reborn, IG and me instead of no lynching? While no lynch isnt the best thing we can accomplish today it sure beats lynching a claimed power role that you believe. I can get behind the lover lynch just because in isolation both of the players appear to be good scum picks.

Pray, explain why I am a good scum pick.

[reborn537]

TT has been a lurker for most of this game and I sit about 50/50 on him, that makes him an acceptable lynch today given how many people we have completely bypassed. While lovers are preferable to me he is my second pick for lynchee right now.

Llama, something you don't understand but need to -

If you have a 50/50 read on someone that means that you think 50% of the time they are scum, 50% of the time they are town. That means you should ALWAYS lynch them because it will ALWAYS be the profitable and correct move in the long term. If we lynch 6 people with 50/50 reads on then we will, on average, kill 3 scum and most likely have won.

Because the scum make up probably a <30% part of the town, any chance of getting them which is larger than 30% is always correct and profitable in the long term. Those are the hard decisions we have to make when dicing with death.

[farside22]

vote count:

reborn537 1 votes: (Save the Dragons)
thinktank 2 vote: (babygirl, LlamaFluff)

Elvis Knits 4 vote: (RestFermata, Inspector Godot, GhostWriter, reborn537)

Kmd4390 1 vote: (Elvis_Knit)
babygirl 1 vote: (thinktank)

Not voting:

xtoxm
kloud1516
Kmd4390

With 12 people it take 7 votes for lynch

Everyone can thank hascow who has stated he has time to watch and keep track while I'm gone and agreed that an extension would be good. New deadline is set for Sept 3rd, 4:00pm PST

Day 1 ends Sept 3rd 4:00pm PST.

[RestFermata]

God, this is basically a really painful, drawn-out version of a mass claim. And guess what! I bet everyone's going to claim pro-town! Surprise! Guess there are no scum in this game, case closed.

[reborn537]

EK - I think the bulk of my suspicion on you comes from dalt rather than yourself. Dalt did enough to be lynched just on his own, and your vanilla claim holds no WIFOM with me.

[elvis_knits]

God, this is basically a really painful, drawn-out version of a mass claim. And guess what! I bet everyone's going to claim pro-town! Surprise! Guess there are no scum in this game, case closed.

This comment is not helpful at all. Most of us are running around trying to question each other and figure out how we feel about others, while you are just sitting there and complaining and not helping us get any closer to a lynch. In fact, you're implying that it's futile for us to even try.

Don't you have any other comments about what has been happening the last few pages?

If you think some of the claims have been false, which ones? Why?

I do not like this post at all. Coming in here complaining instead of helping. Also offering no information about what she thinks. Her comments have the effect of stopping discussion and making people feel like they shouldn't even try. Instead, a pro-town player should be trying to find scum and trying to build momentum, not stopping the momentum.

I don't think the amount of claims we have had is necessarily bad for the game. Maybe some people are lying and forcing them to claim now increases our chances of catching them in a lie later. Faking a power role is really not that easy. They will have ot give results, and it is easy to make mistakes. Also, for me, if anyone still thinks I am lying about townie, there are ways I could be caught if I am scum. Cop or a tracker could bust me if I'm lying (maybe other roles too). So getting scummy people to claim is a good thing, and increases our chance of catching scum later.

Also, outing this many power roles may mean we lose one tonight. But maybe there are A LOT of power roles and one would have probably died anyway. We don't know. It might not be that bad. And with a lot of town power, we will still have more power roles left.

AND, I think it's stupid to stop scum hunting because you're afraid to out more power roles. If you've made some power roles vulnerable, you have to make that sacrifice worth something by trying to lynch scum.

I have used the "let's not out any more power roles" argument as scum because 1)I didn't want too many semi-confirmed people pile up because it would just add to the list I HAD to kill; and 2) scum think it makes them look pro-town.

unvote; vote restfermata

[elvis_knits]

EK - I think the bulk of my suspicion on you comes from dalt rather than yourself. Dalt did enough to be lynched just on his own, and your vanilla claim holds no WIFOM with me.

dalt hardly did anything. He made like 3-4 posts, so you can't seriously think that after 30+ pages of mafia, and all everyone has posted, that dalt "did enough to be lynched." dalt was guilty of bandwagoning without giving reasons. When he was originally voted, most people just wanted him to give reasons. He flaked on the site, so he didn't have a chance. You can't say that is definitively scummy.

After the amount that I have posted, it's really crazy to rely on the three posts that a flaker made.

[reborn537]

EK, RF's comment was sad but true. The town is being utterly incompetent today, myself included. I consider day 1 a total botch.

Dalt hardly did anything - he waggoned onto someone without saying ANYTHING.

[elvis_knits]

D1 is not a total botch. I'm telling you: this many power roles claiming does not favor scum. I've been on the other side of this. Pretend everyone is telling the truth. When power roles claim and they don't get lynched, it means you have to kill them at night. And you can only kill one each night. Meanwhile the others are coming back with results. Best case, they confirm an innocent (which makes another you have to kill at night). Worst case they have some kind of evidence against you, which makes you dead in the water.

AND, we don't know what other roles are out there. There may be a cop or a doc or both. Which scum really need to find and kill ASAP. So if they kill from the claimed roles, they are not killing the potential cop or doc. And if they take a shot in the dark to try to kill a potential cop/doc, they are not killing the other power roles which may come back with info.

Town's not screwed.

[RestFermata]

It's nothing but a joke, and a frustrated one at that. You're definitely reading too much into it when you say I'm implying that our efforts are futile. But I'm not too shocked that you saw something in it, since you definitely seem to be blowing every little thing I say way out of proportions, like the whole safeclaim bonanza (but interestingly, when xtoxm says a similar thing and reborn says the EXACT same thing I did, it's somehow not as suspicious.) But I've got to get ready to go now. I'll have more content after classes are over today.

[RestFermata]

EBWOP

*proportion

[elvis_knits]

It's nothing but a joke, and a frustrated one at that. You're definitely reading too much into it when you say I'm implying that our efforts are futile. But I'm not too shocked that you saw something in it, since you definitely seem to be blowing every little thing I say way out of proportions, like the whole safeclaim bonanza (but interestingly, when xtoxm says a similar thing and reborn says the EXACT same thing I did, it's somehow not as suspicious.) But I've got to get ready to go now. I'll have more content after classes are over today.

You still haven't explained why you aren't scum hunting or adding to the discussion.

[RestFermata]

I'll have more content after classes are over today.

[farside22]

Babygirl morphs into Rockatansky. Everyone just looks blankly at this change.

[Save The Dragons]

This game has turned into a farce.

Unvote

.

Didn't I say stay away from reborn?

Since I don't know either your alignment or reborn's...

seeing as STD and LF have formed a power block I don't think I'm going to be able to convince anyone about them until we have some night info on the table.

This power block has only one vote and a good reason to suggest you're scum.

I've said why I think she's scum.

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember asking you for this info and I didn't get it.

Also, I noticed xtoxm is modding a lovers game. It seems like an odd coincidence that he got a lover role in this game. Coincidences do happen and I don't know why scum would even lie about having a role like that. So I don't knwo if it's likely at all that he's lying. Pretty unlikely, actually. But I just want that bit of info out there.

So you're saying that BG and Xtoxm are scum partners who have claimed to be lovers? BG claimed first, mind you, so if you're insinuating that Xtoxm is lying about being a lover, you're saying that BG is scum, too.

Oh my GOD I can't believe I'm actually saying this but I wish STD was here!

I love you, too.

Reborn is right, I'd rather lynch EK than:

1. Expose another power role
2. Mass claim
3. No lynch

I'm starting more and more to think that EK is scum. Her little metagaming snippets sound reachy I'd rather lynch a townie than to be caught with our pants down at deadline with all our votes on our doctor/cop.

This is not to say I don't find her to be scummy. I do have some reservations, and I'm probably going to withhold my vote at the moment until I'm more sure.

God, this is basically a really painful, drawn-out version of a mass claim. And guess what! I bet everyone's going to claim pro-town! Surprise! Guess there are no scum in this game, case closed.

I <3 you right now.

While I currently suspect reborn to be town, I could easily see SK (based on name and the phrase "death ray or whatever"), and I'm going to be a little wary if we see more than one night kill.

Although I do think that it is possible, if not likely, that one of the lovers is scum, I am not so keen on lynching them until day two, when we have a little more info, especially since Xtoxm confuses me and I want to at least hear from BG's replacement. I can support a lynch, but I'm also a little hesitant to knock off two of our players if I'm more convinced other people are scum.

[RestFermata]

I said I'd post real content today, but I am very sick and I'm going to bed. I am taking some pills that have had a very bad effect on me. I'm going to stop taking them tomorrow, so I should be fine then, promise.

[thinktank]

Based on empirical evidence the lovers have been proven to be far scummier than many of the top candidates. Don't lynch people who come off as protown or 50/50 because there's a lack of better options.

[Save The Dragons]

I'm not under the impression that anyone is doing so.

[LlamaFluff]

TT has been a lurker for most of this game and I sit about 50/50 on him, that makes him an acceptable lynch today given how many people we have completely bypassed. While lovers are preferable to me he is my second pick for lynchee right now.

Llama, something you don't understand but need to -

If you have a 50/50 read on someone that means that you think 50% of the time they are scum, 50% of the time they are town. That means you should ALWAYS lynch them because it will ALWAYS be the profitable and correct move in the long term. If we lynch 6 people with 50/50 reads on then we will, on average, kill 3 scum and most likely have won.

Because the scum make up probably a <30% part of the town, any chance of getting them which is larger than 30% is always correct and profitable in the long term. Those are the hard decisions we have to make when dicing with death.

Something you might not understand: A 50/50 on a player does NOT mean that they are going to be town 50% of the time and scum 50% of the time. To me a 50/50 means you have no read on the player. As alignments of others show up, and players participate more (grrr TT) reads become better, and start leaning to a side. If forced to choose between a town read and a 50/50 sure you kill the 50/50. Given what I know that my role can do though, I want to no lynch before killing off a 50/50 player.

Also "any chance about 30% scum kill them" is stupid. If you think someone is 2/3 chance at being town, why would you ever lynch them? I dont think your logic there is at all accurate, by it I would need to support the lynch of every single player right now.

I still would be happy with a lover lynch, and should have more up on xtoxm up fairly soon, but have a very busy weekend coming up right now. I still think EK is what she claims, but I may just be a sucker for WIFOM at this point. I have my reasons for no lynch, which I know arent going to be accepted, but if we dont no lynch I like lovers or TT.

[reborn537]

It's not logic, it's maths. If less than 30% of the town are scum and you have a 30% chance of catching scum by lynching someone, and you can do that as many times as you like, town wins. Fact.

STD, thank god, I knew you'd return the town to sanity.

[reborn537]

EBWOP - town on average wins

[reborn537]

This game has turned into a farce.

It's been a farce since post 16... we can still salvage it though.

[thinktank]

Go for lovers.

[reborn537]

No... killing lovers day 1 is just ridiculous. I've made my mind up on that.