Mini Theme 2172: Great Idea Mafia - Game Over

[MURDERCAT]

4 town and 1 survivor would also be game over, we have at least 1 scum left

[MURDERCAT]

3 town/2 scum/1 survivor

Can you break this down more though? Which two people do you think are possibly scum together

[NoPowerOverMe]

I've already said you and user.

[MURDERCAT]

Right are there other pairs that you are worried about? You talked about me and herta also

[NoPowerOverMe]

You and Herta and user.

[MURDERCAT]

All together? How did we get 2 kills then?

[NoPowerOverMe]

8/3/1/1

[NoPowerOverMe]

Or primate is SK

[MURDERCAT]

But we killed the mafia day 1 and ico can't die to SK

[Primate]

VOTE: EchoVision so Murder can make the decision about what he wants to do without fears I'll end the day before they're ready.

[MURDERCAT]

Primate, from your POV does echo being scum make sense?

[MURDERCAT]

Also, this is me not hammering echo by the way, which I think greatly limits the possibility that username and I are scum together

[MURDERCAT]

Also primate, could you share the general sense of your win condition? I assume you just need to survive until another win condition is achieved, is that correct?
NPOM suggested that we could be 4 town 1 survivor so I want to show that isn't the case.

[MURDERCAT]

Actually, that's also not possible because there was a kill last night

[Primate]

I mean it makes sense now you're not hammering, ha. These are my general thoughts.

The Claim: I think it implies that echo is actually a doctor. I think the possibilty that Echo is a mafia doc is probably correct but I don't necessarily think they're mafia.
The Nightactions: v weird, scummy.
The nightkills: I don't think these go either way. Redcardinal was suspicious of herta, so that probably happened, leaving echo with Nora/titus and ranny, which isn't interesting. Iconeum was super anti-echo and the end of yesterday, so it makes sense as a kill from that perspective.
The Connections: The stuff below is the kind of thing that makes me reckon there could be something there. Lots of shelley having Echo as their second elim target and then not doing anything with it. From echo it's less cut and dry, I think the IVD push was honestly fine.

echo wagon is good but I want herta today, im the reverse titus

im going to add primate to the townlean pile for that post and the efforts to make a push against ranny.

Town
iamausername
NPOM
redcardinal

Townlean
Titus
Primate

TBD
everyone else

Scumlean/question mark
Echovision
Assemble

Scum
Herta

npom what do you think about herta wagon and the echo one?

???

heads up that im repping out

can't manage this game atm

i think murder/primate/red/echo/username are all town, we townblock there, i retract my earlier solve, still not sure noraa is town, there's nothing as LHF and occams is the way, nuke herta NOW.

bc i’m a fucking expert and my best friend shelly knows i’m an expert
but shellys bein a lil bit of a weirdo so i am accepting new best friend applications
i don’t really like how towny shellys being

but it’s never the person you most suspect nor least suspect it’s whoever you middle most suspect
shelly+ noraa scum team again throwback to doggos

also shelly's null for me right now
which means shelly's prob town

whenever shelly's scum she pockets me and makes me town read her but i don't really read her this game but i haven't paid much attention to her because she hasn't pocketed me yet

[Primate]

Also primate, could you share the general sense of your win condition? I assume you just need to survive until another win condition is achieved, is that correct?
NPOM suggested that we could be 4 town 1 survivor so I want to show that isn't the case.

You're broadly correct, but there are probably hypothetical situations involving everyone else dying that could make me the sole winner. I dont have any more insight as to what set of conditions would cause the mod to end the game.

[MURDERCAT]

Where you at echo I see you've been online

[NoPowerOverMe]

Here's 10 more rollups.

1-87=Town, 88-107=Mafia 108-125=Werewolf 126-134=Alien 135-146=3P
1) 4 31 32 49 61 68 75 85 111 117 119 127 128: 8T, 0M, 3W, 2A, 0P
2) 8 16 32 45 54 77 86 88 96 97 101 105 130: 7T, 5M, 0W, 1A, 0P
3) 3 23 34 44 55 60 117 119 125 130 131 135 138: 6T, 0M, 3W, 2A, 2P
4) 2 4 18 34 36 40 57 105 105 116 117 119 130: 7T, 2M, 3W, 1A, 0P
5) 9 17 30 32 60 62 77 79 91 97 98 132 144: 8T, 3M, 0W, 1A, 1P
6) 2 17 30 34 40 48 72 77 83 89 121 124 146: 9T, 1M, 2W, 0A, 1P
7) 12 13 16 26 31 47 51 53 76 104 106 114 120: 9T, 2M, 2W, 0A, 0P
8) 21 38 39 39 43 57 87 95 128 130 134 135 138: 7T, 1M, 0W, 3A, 2P
9) 2 10 25 29 54 60 68 85 91 122 124 140 144: 8T, 1M, 2W, 0A, 2P
10) 1 9 27 38 44 62 67 70 71 92 134 136 145: 8T, 1M, 0W, 1A, 2P
6 Town=1 7 Town = 3, 8 Town = 4 9 Town=2

[NoPowerOverMe]

8:5 town to non town seems to be the most common setup, and if that is the case then there is two scum left, not just one. Night interactions seem to indicate that it is more likely less than 5 more so than more than 5. If we can eliminate 5 non town as a possibility I want it drawn up exactly how this is determined, and I'm not talking about a "I have been playing pro town the whole game" analysis.

[Primate]

Current game state I think rules out a few possibilities.

If it's 3 team scum, maf or werewolf, and murdercat is part of it, he hammers and takes the win.
If it's 3 team scum, maf or werewolf, and echo is part of it, lynching echo is good anyway.
If it's 3 team scum, maf or werewolf, and you are part of it, you hammer and take the win.
3 team scum with me and username is possible, but then you have to make a case for how likely that is considering I was on username most of d1, even until the end.

2/1/1 maf/ww/alien is possible, with any of us being the alien, who has yet to kill. You have to make that case though, there probably isn't any indication from night actions or associations, so it's just scumhunting.

It's up to you to make that case given your scumreads on the game. If you just assume 5 scum and fit the game to that you could easily be forcing a square peg in a round hole.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Already 6 have flipped town and I know I'm town(7). What I'm trying to figure out is if there's one other town left(8) or two other town left(9).

[NoPowerOverMe]

If there was only 1 kill last night, and we assume it's because one of the evil factions was eliminated rather than roleblocking or doctoring, than that means that there are no werewolfs left.

[NoPowerOverMe]

We know that Iconeum was immune to serial killer kills so than means that he had to be killed by mafia(not werewolf).

[NoPowerOverMe]

If it is an 8:5 setup than that means the faction specific setup is 8:4:1 and only including alive players it is 2:2:1

If it is a 9:4 setup than it is 9:3:1, 3:1:1

The elephant in the room seems to be weather there is one mafia or two mafia.

Cat and I seem to be clear because we are not hammering for the win. Primate is not a SK because there was only one kill last night(unless rb or doc or kills doubled up).

Echo not protecting a known townie does seem fishy, but I'm not exactly convinced he is a top tier player(no offense Echo, I'm probably not either).

Is there a scenario where User and Echo are partners? I just feel like I'm missing something and I don't town too lose because I'm missing something obvious or failing to do the required work.

[NoPowerOverMe]

One thing that stuck out in doing a quick iso of Echo is that Echo called Titus' reads "lazy", Titus is known as a top tier player and Titus was NK'd night 1.