Open 797: Bus Service [Game Over]

[ManWithNoName]

I don't remember exactly when I figured it out.

[ManWithNoName]

Maybe when I got my role PM? Maybe before that?

Definitely not when I read it originally to see if I wanted to sign up.

[Bus Service]

Alright, irrelevant then. If you realised partway into the game, now that would be sus.

[ManWithNoName]

I mean, don't get me wrong, this isn't the chaotic game I wanted to play in, but I don't rep out just because a fun game is not chaotic enough.

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Bus Service

Too confusing a name to keep around

[Bingle]

Bingle replaces arachnidsGrip

Oh, my! If you are Scum, I forfeit the game to thee. The mechanics of the game do not give the town a realistic chance to overcome your cunning mechanical play.

Any cops that have investigated A50 are naive.

Anything I should know?

[Bingle]

Oh, hey, I just realized I've done mechspec on this setup before. I should probably go dig that up to pretend to be useful.

[Bingle]

Subject: [Setup] Bus Service

Starting with scum strats:

Variable definitions:

n= # living players
x= # living scum

Spoiler: Strongman only

Scum swaps two town players. Shoots one to kill the other.

Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to town: 2(n-x)/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to scum: 2x/(n^2-n)
Cop survival if unclaimed: (n-1)/n

Cop results always trustworthy.
If redirect successful, +1 conftown.
If redirect onto scum, +1 conftown, -1 scum.

Spoiler: Investigation Confusion only

Scum swaps scum and town and shoots their target directly.

Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to town: 2(n-x)/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to scum: 2x/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance cop False Innocents: 1/n.
Percentage chance cop False Guilties: 1/n.

Diminishing return on cop results.
If redirect successful, +1 conftown.
If redirect onto scum, +1 conftown, -1 scum.

Spoiler: Both

Scum swaps scum and town, nightkills scum swap.

Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to town: 2(n-x)/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to scum: 2x/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance cop False Innocents: 1/n
Percentage chance cop False Guilties: 0.
Percentage of Innocent results that are False: 1/(n-x)
Percentage of Guilty results that are False: 1/x

Diminishing return on cop innocents.
If redirect successful, +1 conftown -1 scum.
If redirect unsuccessful, +1 conftown -2 scum.

Cop claimed: Scum tries to kill cop, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.
Busdriver claimed: Scum tries to kill Busdriver, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.
Both claimed: Scum tries to kill Cop, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.

Chance of successful protection:

n % To Scum To Town
4 67 17 50
5 50 10 40
6 40 7 33
7 33 5 29
8 28 4 25
9 25 3 22
10 22 2 20
11 20 2 18
12 18 2 17

Hypoclaim chance to out either PR without the other being outed is negligible.
Hypoclaim chance to out Bus Driver with the cop being outed doesn't matter, as the cop is the priority kill for scum.
Hypoclaim chance to out as not cop with Bus Driver claimed: 50% per individual per day.

Hypoclaim unlikely to get cop killed any earlier than not hypoclaiming, therefore all players should hypoclaim both cop and redirections.

Claims should happen on run up or on the day before LYLO.

My only concern with the setup now is that it looks like a win more setup (If mafia is winning, they're likely to continue winning, but if they lose one player their odds decrease dramatically.) Otherwise, this looks balanced.

I'm not gonna bother writing a program for expected win rates, because there's too many subjective values for them to actually mean anything important.

[Bus Service]

Initially I brought up to mini that I thought a shelly scum-tell would be their super OMGUSy and pockety behaviour depending on how you act towards them. I wanted to test that initally by having Mini SR them and myself TR them. See if they reacted much differently to me than to her (although mini didn't post much). As SOON as I started disagreeing with her, she immediately switched their read on me. It was ticking exactly like I expected it to, if that is their town-meta as well they should probably learn to actually accept that they're not always right on their reads and shouldn't ever push anyone that stands against them.

This slot is so painfully town.

[ManWithNoName]

Subject: [Setup] Bus Service

Starting with scum strats:

Variable definitions:

n= # living players
x= # living scum

Spoiler: Strongman only

Scum swaps two town players. Shoots one to kill the other.

Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to town: 2(n-x)/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to scum: 2x/(n^2-n)
Cop survival if unclaimed: (n-1)/n

Cop results always trustworthy.
If redirect successful, +1 conftown.
If redirect onto scum, +1 conftown, -1 scum.

Spoiler: Investigation Confusion only

Scum swaps scum and town and shoots their target directly.

Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to town: 2(n-x)/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to scum: 2x/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance cop False Innocents: 1/n.
Percentage chance cop False Guilties: 1/n.

Diminishing return on cop results.
If redirect successful, +1 conftown.
If redirect onto scum, +1 conftown, -1 scum.

Spoiler: Both

Scum swaps scum and town, nightkills scum swap.

Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to town: 2(n-x)/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to scum: 2x/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance cop False Innocents: 1/n
Percentage chance cop False Guilties: 0.
Percentage of Innocent results that are False: 1/(n-x)
Percentage of Guilty results that are False: 1/x

Diminishing return on cop innocents.
If redirect successful, +1 conftown -1 scum.
If redirect unsuccessful, +1 conftown -2 scum.

Cop claimed: Scum tries to kill cop, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.
Busdriver claimed: Scum tries to kill Busdriver, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.
Both claimed: Scum tries to kill Cop, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.

Chance of successful protection:

n % To Scum To Town
4 67 17 50
5 50 10 40
6 40 7 33
7 33 5 29
8 28 4 25
9 25 3 22
10 22 2 20
11 20 2 18
12 18 2 17

Hypoclaim chance to out either PR without the other being outed is negligible.
Hypoclaim chance to out Bus Driver with the cop being outed doesn't matter, as the cop is the priority kill for scum.
Hypoclaim chance to out as not cop with Bus Driver claimed: 50% per individual per day.

Hypoclaim unlikely to get cop killed any earlier than not hypoclaiming, therefore all players should hypoclaim both cop and redirections.

Claims should happen on run up or on the day before LYLO.

My only concern with the setup now is that it looks like a win more setup (If mafia is winning, they're likely to continue winning, but if they lose one player their odds decrease dramatically.) Otherwise, this looks balanced.

I'm not gonna bother writing a program for expected win rates, because there's too many subjective values for them to actually mean anything important.

Can we get like a summary of this for the more dumb of us? Asking for a friend.

[JohnnyFarrar]

This slot is so painfully town

Shelly or mini?

Also welcome replacements!

[Bus Service]

I'm all caught up. shelly is probtown, although I can see why MiniVirgo is seeing elements of her scum play. The confident solve in particular is one of the things that's a little iffy.
shelly, where did you get this sudden surge of confidence in your reads? In other town games, you're more hesitant and aware that you could be wrong.

VOTE: Bus Service

Too confusing a name to keep around

So is yours. How'd you get an underscore in your name?

[Bus Service]

This slot is so painfully town

Shelly or mini?

Also welcome replacements!

MiniVirgo

[Bus Service]

This name sucks, what was I thinking.

[ManWithNoName]

I'm all caught up. shelly is probtown, although I can see why MiniVirgo is seeing elements of her scum play. The confident solve in particular is one of the things that's a little iffy.
shelly, where did you get this sudden surge of confidence in your reads? In other town games, you're more hesitant and aware that you could be wrong.

VOTE: Bus Service

Too confusing a name to keep around

So is yours. How'd you get an underscore in your name?

Shift+-

[Nandor the Relentless]

I'm back, and this time I'm relentless.

Because I never relent.

[Nandor the Relentless]

Shift+-

I've tried having underscored before and they don't let you.

@mod:

Replace Bus Service with this account please.

[Nandor the Relentless]

derp is essentially active lurking the thread. He has no scumreads or pushes. His only content of note is saying the large sized elephant isn't scum, but could be scum if there were doing this a certain thing:

me not think the above average sized elephant has good reads but me not think they are scum

me not think the above average sized elephant has good reads but me not think they are scum

You're -of course- entitled to your own reads, but I'd beg you to consider the case where Elephant is the ONLY ACTIVE SCUM SLOT at this point and reread the game based on that assumption. Please and thank you.

i think their reads are bad but the eagerness to get them out there does not strike me as scummy but i could be wrong

its possible but i just dont see why scum would feel the need to do it either but it could be the large mammal is just trying a bit too hard to project town

Usually, a slot like this won't be eliminated till day 3 or something, he'll stick around most people's nullreads until the PoE catches up to him. A lot of scum fit this mould - one that has no bold stances, and is afraid to say anything that'll get them flak.

How about we speed up the process?

[Nandor the Relentless]

Big Elephant is sounding increasingly scummy, I think the TR on MiniVirgo is a deep pocket, and they're just generally agreeing with stuff and throwing out forced reads instead of solving.

I think mech talk is a bad way to TR people fwiw

VOTE: Big Elephant

I shittily try to end RVS but THIS gets no vote? /salty

VOTE: ProfMaf

This salt was notable to me, because it's more likely a scummo gets salty seeing a townsman doing something scummy which isn't pushed.

[Nandor the Relentless]

Read up.
Pretty sure this is town Shelly posting.
Would be willing to vote Elberin.
Yess seems really cautious to me?

Those are the prevailing thoughts upon a reread. Is this a micro? I feel like there are only like 6 players

Y'all are missing the part where Shelly is just like this.

The double derp is reasonably compelling, assuming that was the two different heads. Perspective slip, maybe? But by the end of your post we get into Shelly bein' Shelly.

Still better than voting someone who isn't here

VOTE: shelly/elephant/whatever

Keeping an eye on that prof maf slot tho

Why vote shelly if you think she's town? You could vote for anyone else.

[JohnnyFarrar]

I could do derp.

[Nandor the Relentless]

Doesn't answer my question.

[JohnnyFarrar]

I liked minis catch on the double vote, it didn't reek of the normal "Shelly is scum i mean just look at her" I've seen in previous games

[Nandor the Relentless]

I don't even get that double vote thing btw. What scum motivation is there to fake that? There's none. The second head just happened to RVS-vote the same person without realising their other head already did, which means nothing alignment-wise.

[Not_Mafia]

I'm all caught up. shelly is probtown, although I can see why MiniVirgo is seeing elements of her scum play. The confident solve in particular is one of the things that's a little iffy.
shelly, where did you get this sudden surge of confidence in your reads? In other town games, you're more hesitant and aware that you could be wrong.

VOTE: Bus Service

Too confusing a name to keep around

So is yours. How'd you get an underscore in your name?

I typed it