Open 87 - Baby Too Much Scum - Over before 641

[farside22]

Everyone heads to the house again after a hard day and no scum found. Except one person is missing. Sure enough iamausername is not amoung your group.
You head to the house and the maid is crying and points at iamausername's body. He was strangled in his sleep. All signs around the house show nothing out of the ordinary. You even see a picture of his kids. Theo, Rudy and Vanessa. Looks like Mr. Huxtable. A heavy sigh fills the room.
You head back to the orignal meeting house. It is time to seek justice for your small community.

Iamausername - Townie - Strangled Night 1

Day 2 deadline September 20th, 9:00am PST

With 6 players left in the game it will take 4 to lynch.

[Crazy]

That's weird. I was getting ready to vote him.

Also, we're at lylo now. In the way that we either have to lynch scum today (either kind will work) or have the SK kill mafia tonight.

If the FBI Agent has found a guilty, they should claim. If they haven't, they shouldn't.

Not sure whom to vote for yet, though I'm leaning towards Grimmy. I really thought that Username was scum.

[skitzer]

We need to leave fair time for counterclaims on FBI Agents. Scum fakeclaiming would be really bad.

I'll catch up on what I missed ASAP.

[Crazy]

The SK would never claim FBI unless if it was Day 3.

I don't see any particular reason why the mafia would before Day 3, either.

[armlx]

Actually, it might be valid for a FBI claim regardless. 2 players cleared of being the SK, who pretty much has to die today or it turns into 2-1-1, which is icky. Scum can just choose to not lynch SK, which forces a 1-1-1 where the townie decides who wins the game.

[Crazy]

Good point, unless if the FBI Agent investigated Username.

[armlx]

Good point, unless if the FBI Agent investigated Username.

Agree.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm here. The Iamusername kill surprises me and I think is actually meaningful and not something to just dismiss as WIFOM. What exactly it means, I'm not positive yet. I need to think this through.

I think Skitzer is part of the mafia. His lack of concrete opinions suggests an unwillingness to provide information as to who his partner could be. I think his partner would be either Mencellator/Grimmy, and the other has a strong chance of being the SK.

Crazy I think is town by nature of Skitzer pushing her and Skitzer being my top mafia suspect.

Armlx I'm fairly neutral on. I don't see him as a strong suspect for either scum team but haven't really ruled him out for anything either.

My picks for the Serial Killer are basically: Grimmy/Mencelator/Armlx in that order of likelihood, although I'm a bit torn with which is more likely out of my top two choices.

[Grimmy]

Question for da goatster

What makes me worthy of "serialkillersuspectedness"?

Grimmy
made a new word
ps
I still dont trust Crazy. I also dont trtsut Skitzer either. Id go for either lynch today

[farside22]

Prodded Mencellator

[Mencellator]

Well I guess two of what were my major suspects are townie so I don't have much to say about other people's alignment yet. I am still a little suspicious of Crazy but Oman's death changes things slightly.

I agree that if FBI has cleared someone other than Iamausername then he should claim and we'll have strictly more than 50% chance of hitting scum today.

[armlx]

I'm def. going to have to reread to see what I think at this point. I remember Grimmy being a pretty good suspect, but I'm P sure we need to lynch the SK today so that makes it tricky.

[Crazy]

Let me just work this in my head. I'm not sure that 2-1-1 is as bad as we're thinking.

2-1-1

2 town, 1 mafia, 1 SK

Mafia lynch = SK win
SK lynch = Standard 2-1 LYLO with town/mafia
Town lynch = SK win
No lynch = Either 1:1:1 scenario, or 2-1 with SK

Now look, the only group that could possibly benefit from no lynching when someone else is in jeopardy is the mafia, and even that's a little sketchy, since it's really hard to tell whether a 1-1-1 or a 2-1 favors mafia more.

And this sounds insane, what I'm about to suggest, since it looks like it just favors the SK. But it favors the SK

and

the town, because it gives no motivation for the mafia to No Lynch.

We all have to promise that if this game somehow gets to a 1-1-1, then we let the SK win, or at least the player that looks most likely to be the SK. Right?

Then there's no way the mafia would want to No Lynch.

Which, in turn, we don't have to worry about lynching the SK today. We just have to lynch

any

scum.

[armlx]

We all have to promise that if this game somehow gets to a 1-1-1, then we let the SK win, or at least the player that looks most likely to be the SK. Right?

I can agree here. This definitely makes sense.

[farside22]

bump

[Mencellator]

We all have to promise that if this game somehow gets to a 1-1-1, then we let the SK win, or at least the player that looks most likely to be the SK. Right?

It makes sense, but I can see Newcomb's Paradox coming into play.

[Crazy]

We all have to promise that if this game somehow gets to a 1-1-1, then we let the SK win, or at least the player that looks most likely to be the SK. Right?

It makes sense, but I can see Newcomb's Paradox coming into play.

I just read the wikipedia article on that, and I have no idea how that applies. Explain, please?

[Mencellator]

We all have to promise that if this game somehow gets to a 1-1-1, then we let the SK win, or at least the player that looks most likely to be the SK. Right?

It makes sense, but I can see Newcomb's Paradox coming into play.

I just read the wikipedia article on that, and I have no idea how that applies. Explain, please?

Well, if you want to know, it reminded me of a problem I've studied where someone places some money in box A, and then puts lots in B only if you promise and convince him that you'll take the contents of just B. So, if you are looking to maximise profit you should promise to open just B and then do that. But then again, once offered the boxes the contents are fixed so there's nothing to stop you breaking your promise and taking from both boxes. The paradox lies in the fact there is no 'correct' decision.

But now that I think about it I'm talking utter rubbish because I forgot that in your situation townies lose anyway so they aren't promising to do something that would worsen themselves. Sorry for wasting your time reading the wiki, lol.

[Crazy]

Okay.

Still, anything regarding game theory is a good read.

[armlx]

I agree on both parts of Crazy's post. The townie is an unbiased arbiter in that situation, not a party with an invested interest in the outcome.

[Grimmy]

still waiting for the following

-Goatsters theory of my SK-edness

-Some evidence that shows Crazy is NOT guilty

-Some comments by skitzer to judge him better

-new season of 24

-Grimmy

[Goatrevolt]

-Goatsters theory of my SK-edness

It was actually based on a misinterpretation.

Basically, I'm trying to figure out who would kill Iamusername, who was a likely lynch target today. This stuff generally gets tossed aside as WIFOM, but who has the most to gain from such an action? I would argue that Grimmy has both something to gain and lose from it. To gain is the fact that he was being paired up as a mafia member with Iamusername and this would end that speculation, but he also loses in that he was a top suspect and with another top suspect gone he becomes a higher priority lynch target.

My guess right now is that Iamusername was killed for one of the following reasons:

1. Someone thought he gave off signs of being the FBI Agent.
2. Someone wasn't following the thread closely enough to realize he was under suspicion
3. The SK is someone relatively unsuspected who can afford to take out a top target and not have the noose fall around their neck next.

Honestly, I think the Iamusername kill points most closely to armlx. He was under no suspicion and thus wasn't directly putting himself in the crossfire by making a kill on a top suspect. By nature of him not being on the Iamusername case yesterday, he wouldn't be able to just easily jump back on today, which would have given less incentive to make that kill.

I'd like to review armlx. I find him terribly hard to evaluate, since most of his posts are fairly straightforward and logical, but don't ultimately give much towards evaluating his alignment. Either way, I think the Iamusername kill points mostly to him and I'd be interested in looking more into that.

[armlx]

Can we just have a mass head count of people saying "I am not an FBI agent with a result on a living player" or "I am an FBI Agent with an innocent/guilty on X".

Goat, looking at kills to determine who is scum is dumb. Too many ways to arrive at the same conclusion, not to mention the WIFOM ones.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm not sold on having the FBI agent come forward. If we lynch mafia, but not the SK today, it's in our best interest for the FBI agent to remain unknown. If we lynch Mafia today, and the FBI agent has come forward, then the serial killer is likely just going to take the easy shot and put us in a tough spot. We want the SK to hit the other mafia member, but that simply won't happen.

I propose that the FBI agent remains anonymous and only claims if either:

1. They are going to get lynched.
2. They investigated a player as not the SK who is going to get lynched.
3. They got a guilty. In that case, they should simply claim now.

armlx: As the only way to determine scum, yes it's dumb. Ignoring it is even more dumb though. People are night killed for a reason, thus it's rarely a good idea to throw it away as strictly WIFOM. Trying to figure out that reason is helpful.

[armlx]

Goat, my point is that given any player as SK, I could probably come up with a reason for them to kill IAUN. There's no way to ascribe a given reason to a specific kill barring in end game scenarios.