Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[The Fonz]

In fact, I think we need to get claims from all remaining players - Jitsu, Kison, and Fonzy. No more going back and trying to manipulate events/roles to anyone's liking as we approach endgame. My opinion, of course.

I'm a big proponent of not giving scum info they don't need unless absolutely necessary. So, stick it.

[BillyTwilight]

Hehehe. I like fighting with you Fonzy. Didn't get to do it enough in Mafia 64.

I'm fairly confident that mafia has lost this game. Only thing that needs clarification is a third party possibility. Fonz has managed to move himself into that category with lightening speed.

[The Fonz]

BT, no offence, but you're acting like a moron.

Quite clearly, if I'm by some stretch of the imagination not town, it's safe enough for me to claim vanilla townie.

Therefore, there is absolutely no possibility, as you put it, of me 'manipulating roles/events' since it would be unnecessary. What kind of antitown faction do you think I could be? We have a vig claim, which means that all kills are accounted for. If you say cult, I will nail you to the wall.

[Guardian]

Vote Count 30

Oman[2] (Jitsu, The Fonz)
Kison[1] (Oman)
BillyTwilight[1] (cicero)

Not Voting[3] (BillyTwilight, Kison, Erg0)

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The above is what I have as the current votes. I will double check, but please correct me if I am wrong. Computer still very buggy. May have to reformat after I post deadline, fyi.

[Guardian]

FYI: Deadline is in 24 hours from now, as per the front post that has never changed.

[BillyTwilight]

BT, no offence, but you're acting like a moron.

Quite clearly, if I'm by some stretch of the imagination not town, it's safe enough for me to claim vanilla townie.

Therefore, there is absolutely no possibility, as you put it, of me 'manipulating roles/events' since it would be unnecessary. What kind of antitown faction do you think I could be? We have a vig claim, which means that all kills are accounted for. If you say cult, I will nail you to the wall.

No, I don't think I'm acting like a moron.

As far as I am concerned there are 2 wildcards left in this game: you and Oman. Yes, the non-mafia kills are Oman's. Does that make you town aligned? No.

We have three lynches to work with, probably. We have 4 players that aren't confirmed as anything. We know that if there is a self-aligned player they have an "above average chance of not being normal"... i.e., they aren't a stereotypical serial killer. I don't see Oman being a serial killer here - if he is then he has a power that we don't know of yet. I don't think a 1 shot night-kill immunity would make him more than a "normal" SK. I don't think he is night kill immune (see the win condition for self-aligned player). The only thing I can see is that he might have the ability to daykill. That I think would qualify as "not being normal".

I'm simply trying to understand what in this game is balancing for the town power here. 9 town, 4 vanilla, 5 power roles (assuming you in some way prevented a night kill) seems too much for a 3 person scumgroup to handle. 8 town, 4 vanilla, 4 power roles (assuming you in some way prevented a night kill) balancing OmanSK plus three mafia is a little better, but doesn't meet the requirement for the self aligned player to be something other than normal. 8 town, 5 vanilla, 3 power roles balancing night kill immune or 1 shot night kill immune OmanSK plus three mafia also doesn't really meat the requirement for the self aligned player to be something other than normal, though that seems the most balanced setup from game-start.

Most likely I guess is that the second/third scenario is the setup and the lucky break of only losing vanilla players for the first 4 deaths in the game makes the game seem more unbalanced than it really is, but it doesn't sit right with me. Throw in Jitsu's inexplicable attack on shaft.ed day 2, my belief that there doesn't seem to be a lot of reason for scum to want to night kill Oman night 2, and your reticence to claim when, if you are town, there are really only about 3 "normal" roles that you could be and everyone can already guess at what they are has me nervous about charging through the rest of the game as though we already have everything figured out.

[Kison]

- Erg0<->Billy Twilight
- Cicero<->The Fonz
- Cicero<->Jitsu

One of that combination is our scum.

I'm Vanilla.

We know that something prevented a night kill from last night. I am only seeing the following possibilities:

1) Roleblocker blocked scum.
2) Doctor successfully protected.
3) OmanSK has some sort of NK immunity and ate a kill attempt.

If #1 is true and it's Jitsu, he has a 50% chance of blocking the scum kill tonight and letting Cicero live long enough to investigate one of the two potential scumbuddy groups. If it's The Fonz, it's more like 1/4. Of course, this is all dependent upon Cicero's sanity/whether he's telling the truth.

If #2 is true, the game is won unless Cicero is lying/has sanity issues. Doc can protect Cicero and ensure he investigates one of the two groups.

If #3, and only #3 is true, then Cicero will almost definitely die tonight leaving Jitsu<->Kison and Erg0<->Billy Twilight for The Fonz to decide between.

So no. From what I can tell, whoever said the game is won didn't think it through.

[Erg0]

So who do you think the scumgroup is?

[Oman]

Fonz looks oppertunitic, just sayin'

Oh wait...he was the innocent.

[Oman]

I don't want to throw this one too high in the sky, but...what if the mafia forgot to send in a kill. Its happend before.

[Erg0]

Possible, but probably not something we should take a punt on.

I don't have much to add to my previous thoughts - will be back pre-deadline.

[Oman]

Again, I think its unfair that I should even attempt to defend this but:

There is no logical way that i can be a NK-immune SK because if I was, I would also be inv. Immune ("Not Mafia") and thats a little much.

[cicero]

Where's Jitsu at?

[Jitsu]

I am here. I am going over the scenarios in my head to decide whether I should claim or not.

[cicero]

I am here. I am going over the scenarios in my head to decide

whether

what

I should claim

or not

.

Fixed?

[Jitsu]

I am weighing the value of denying information to the scum against helping the rest of the town figure out the setup.

I am still trying to analyze the setup, but for now, I can say this: I cannot counterclaim any of the existing power role claims.

[cicero]

Well deadline isnt far away and we've players from as far away as England and Australia. How long do you need?

[Jitsu]

Well deadline isnt far away and we've players from as far away as England and Australia. How long do you need?

I'm well aware of the deadline.

I'll tell you what. I'll post again in two hours, regardless of whether I've finished my analysis or not.

[Oman]

Kison is the lynch guys.

[cicero]

Oman, in your world then set up is:

Cop
Vigilante
Two masons
No Doctor - Scum simply didn't send in a kill?

[Oman]

Well...there could be an RB, which is possible as the RB could nullify the cop. And the Vig is swingy...

Stoofer's second ftw.

[cicero]

So are you confirming there that that is what you believe the setup to be? or not?

Or are you saying you think it is cop, vig, mason pair AND doc vs. mafia because mafia has a roleblocker?

[The Fonz]

BT, no offence, but you're acting like a moron.

Quite clearly, if I'm by some stretch of the imagination not town, it's safe enough for me to claim vanilla townie.

Therefore, there is absolutely no possibility, as you put it, of me 'manipulating roles/events' since it would be unnecessary. What kind of antitown faction do you think I could be? We have a vig claim, which means that all kills are accounted for. If you say cult, I will nail you to the wall.

No, I don't think I'm acting like a moron.

As far as I am concerned there are 2 wildcards left in this game: you and Oman. Yes, the non-mafia kills are Oman's. Does that make you town aligned? No.

Yes, you are acting like a moron. Not claiming in this situation is the BLATANTLY OBVIOUS, RIGHT, PRO-TOWN THING TO DO. Again. If I am not mafia, and not SK, what kind of antitown faction do you think i could be?

We have three lynches to work with, probably. We have 4 players that aren't confirmed as anything. We know that if there is a self-aligned player they have an "above average chance of not being normal"... i.e., they aren't a stereotypical serial killer.

Normal to my mind, in this context, would mean 'would be found within a normal game.' Any kind of ability beyond the usual nk/inv immunity could count here.

I don't see Oman being a serial killer here - if he is then he has a power that we don't know of yet. I don't think a 1 shot night-kill immunity would make him more than a "normal" SK. I don't think he is night kill immune (see the win condition for self-aligned player). The only thing I can see is that he might have the ability to daykill. That I think would qualify as "not being normal".

Dear God, you can stretch semantics a loooooong way. Also, gold medal for missing the point. THE TOWN CAN AUTOLOSE IF IT DOES NOT LYNCH OMAN. IT CANNOT IF WE LYNCH OMAN.

I'm simply trying to understand what in this game is balancing for the town power here. 9 town, 4 vanilla, 5 power roles (assuming you in some way prevented a night kill) seems too much for a 3 person scumgroup to handle.

You're playing OGM, which is antitown. Stop it.

Blah, blah, blah, pointless speculation that has nothing to do with helping the town win.

Throw in Jitsu's inexplicable attack on shaft.ed day 2, my belief that there doesn't seem to be a lot of reason for scum to want to night kill Oman night 2, and your reticence to claim when, if you are town, there are really only about 3 "normal" roles that you could be and everyone can already guess at what they are has me nervous about charging through the rest of the game as though we already have everything figured out.

And your inexplicable insistence I claim when there is NO POSSIBLE BENEFIT makes me want to *headdesk* over and over again.

[cicero]

Unvote. Vote: Oman

[Jitsu]

Well, my self-imposed deadline is up.

I wish I had a few more days to think about this, but we don't have that kind of time, so I've come to a decision based on the thinking that I've done.

I believe that it is in the town's best interest for me not to claim.

I also believe that Oman is the best lynch. Based on the scenarios I've considered, I believe Oman is likely to be the SK, and I agree with Fonz that we need to lynch Oman to prevent an auto-loss tonight.