Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[cicero]

Really? cool. Why? Please include the Why Them reasons and the Why Not You reasons.

[Erg0]

Read between the lines, dude.

[Erg0]

I see that Billy has given me the ok, so I'll claim: we're mod-confirmed masons.

[cicero]

Cop, vigilante, something that stopped the scum nightkill (doctor?) and mod-confirmed masons...

I am at least a little incredulous.

[The Fonz]

It's possible the scumkill was dashed against an NK-immune SK. Though my problem with that is your claimed wording, Cic- that implies that an SK would be undetectable by the cop, and cop-immune and nk-immune should never never apply to the same SK.

[Erg0]

My guess would be that Oman's an NK-immune SK. It seems to fit the setup.

cop-immune and nk-immune should never never apply to the same SK.

This doesn't match with my experience.

[Erg0]

oh and I should qualify: Innocent comes back as "Not Mafia". so it doesn't preclude that third party idea. But unless that's Oman I'm not sure we should bank on it existing. And Oman's vig kills feel like, well, vig kills, no?

It's not unusual for an SK to kill in a way that sets them up for a vig claim later. By night 2 an SK would have needed to kill mafia just as much as we did.

[cicero]

I see that Billy has given me the ok, so I'll claim: we're mod-confirmed masons.

What does this mean? See how, where, when?

[Erg0]

We can daytalk.

[cicero]

So BT gave you the go ahead via PM between 3:47 and 3:55 but still hasn't posted in the thread himself all day. Gotcha.

[The Fonz]

cop-immune and nk-immune should never never apply to the same SK.

This doesn't match with my experience.[/quote]

Oh, I've been in games where it's happened. But it's terrible modding, because it basically means that if the SK is investigated, then the scum can't win- they can't nightkill him, and they can't get a guy with an innocent on him lynched so long as there are goons alive.

[cicero]

Ehh, my replies specifically say "Not Mafia" instead of innocent. So I think everyone could still be lynchable with evidence of an SK. I wouldn't be so quick to call Guardian a terrible mod in this case if it turns out true.

How does an SK in this game match up with the whole third faction likely not being normal thing, one wonders.

[Erg0]

So BT gave you the go ahead via PM between 3:47 and 3:55 but still hasn't posted in the thread himself all day. Gotcha.

We have a forum for daytalking - he posted in there about 4 and a half hours ago.

[Erg0]

Ehh, my replies specifically say "Not Mafia" instead of innocent. So I think everyone could still be lynchable with evidence of an SK. I wouldn't be so quick to call Guardian a terrible mod in this case if it turns out true.

How does an SK in this game match up with the whole third faction likely not being normal thing, one wonders.

He could be one-shot kill immune or something, I suppose.

Also, "likely" != definitely. I'd guess that the setup for this game was randomised to some extent.

[cicero]

I'm gonna be curious to hear from Kison and Jitsu now.

[The Fonz]

Ehh, my replies specifically say "Not Mafia" instead of innocent. So I think everyone could still be lynchable with evidence of an SK. I wouldn't be so quick to call Guardian a terrible mod in this case if it turns out true.

One piece of terrible modding does not a terrible mod make. The last time I experienced it, Simenon was modding. Of course, the SK can possibly get himself lynched through extreme stupidity. But, meh. It strikes me that only a handful of mods actuallly realise this- most mods think of balance from a 'possibility of town win' standpoint.

I'm trying to work out whether we can risk leaving Oman alive.

[BillyTwilight]

Confirming Erg0; we're masons, and we can daytalk. Should answer cicero's question on why I've basically defended Erg0 and called him town straight up all this game.

I'm rather confused about this game... it all seems too easy.

We need to hear from Kison and Jitsu to make sure there are no counterclaims; what is bothering me right now is Jitsu's interaction with shaft.ed yesterday. Jitsu pursued a rather terrible case attacking of all things his godfather, if he's scum. Terrible bussing/distancing strategy, but it might have been simply his lack of experience as scum. On the other hand, this might explain shaft.ed attacking Jitsu harshly on day 1 (post #217). I've found when playing scum myself that one of the easiest things to do is overreact to one of my scumpartners saying something that I felt was a dead-giveaway that they were scum and wanting to immediately attack them for it. Sometimes knowing your partner is scum can amplify the degree of scuminess that their posting actually has, and can cause you to overact to something a town player might see as a tell but nothing damning (see my overreaction to YogurtBandit day 1 in Mafia 64). Could certainly be what happened with shaft.ed in #217.

I've felt that shaft.ed's interest in shanba's lurking on day 1 to be the most likely connection with shaft.ed throughout the game, so I'm all for lynching Kison. Kison and shaft.ed did go at it some when Kison replaced in, but it looks like too little too late, imo. I simply can't see there being less than a three person scum group in this game, so that means that both Jitsu and Kison are scum, unless the mod gave multiple players in the scum group godfather status, which also doesn't make sense.

Fonz, can you claim, please?

The setup here seems overbalanced:

What I know -

4 vanilla townies (Adel, Simenon, CKD, volkan)

2 masons (Erg0, BT)

1 mafia gf (shaft.ed)

What I believe -

Vig/SK - (Oman) For the most part I believe Oman's claim as vig; the setup indicates that if there is a third party they won't be "normal", and that there win condition is "You win when you have assured that you will never be lynched or killed," indicating that they aren't night kill immune. If Oman is a SK then he probably isn't "normal"; maybe he has 1 nightkill self-protection? that doesn't really fall outside of a "normal" SK, though.

Cop - (cicero) I almost have to believe his cop claim. Scum must believe that there is a cop in the game (why have a gf, otherwise), and for him to claim cop before being forced to seems suicidal. The only way I see him lying is if he somehow knows there isn't a cop in the game.

doc/rb/nkimmune - There has to have been a way for the night 2 mafia kill to have been blocked. This could fall under a role (the ones I have listed - add more if you can think of any) or that Guardian didn't have night kills happen simultaneously and shaft.ed's death stopped the mafia kill from happening.

goons/rb/mafiadoc, etc. - There HAS to be 2 mafia left. As much power as town apparently has would make a 2 person mafia completely unbalanced and almost broken.

So tally: Town is 8/9 players: 4 vanilla, 2 masons, 1 cop, 1 vig, 1 doc/rb; vig/doc/rb could be SK, or other self-aligned, but nothing in the play seems to indicate it.

3 mafia, 1 godfather, the other 2 unknown (balancing seems to require there is at least a mafia RBer... I can't see a mafiadoc as the mafiadoc would almost have to protect the GF, and the GF was killed).

Balance is very precarious here, and is making me second guess what should be a simple decision on lynching Kison or Jitsu.

I'd like to hear cicero's night 1 investigation (he might have all ready given it, need to go back and look but want to get this in as I see a flurry of posting happening now). Also want Fonz's claim.

[Erg0]

Quick scenarios:

If we assume 4 town, 2 mafia and 1 SK then a mafia lynch today and two townie kills tonight leaves us at 2-1-1, which is prisoner's dilemma territory.

Lynching the SK would give us 3-2 tomorrow with a pretty good line on the last two mafia.

If we lynch Oman and he's telling the truth then it depends what other roles we have out there - if we assume that there are no other killing roles besides Oman and the mafia then we could be at 3-2 or 2-2-1 tomorrow. The first one's no worse than an SK lynch, the second is pretty bad for the town.

[The Fonz]

Billy- No. I will not. I do not see any benefit in me claiming unless and until Cicero is shown to be a liar.

Erg0- if Oman is NK-immune, then there's no PD. The town has to decide which scumgroup wins.

My feeling, is that Oman has to die. If we lynch Oman, then we go to a four-two night, which then leads into a 3-2 endgame: but we know exactly who the scum is, UNLESS cicero is lying. In any case, we do not immediately lose. If we do not lynch Oman, then we risk going to night, both scumgroups killing town, and a 2-1-1 endgame.

[BillyTwilight]

All right, checked again and got cicero's other investigation. Still want a claim from Fonz.

7 players, 2 mafia (?), 1 self-aligned (?). Not exactly sure where to go from here, but it looks like we have to decide if there is a self-aligned and lynch them today. Waiting for claim from Fonzy and to hear from Jitsu and Kison.

[Erg0]

Good point on the NK immunity, I didn't factor that in. In that case, I'm pretty sure that lynching Oman is the best move today.

Billy: cicero's N1 investigation was The Fonz.

[cicero]

I have to run out for the evening. May be back on in a few hours maybe not.

BT - Fonz was my night one investigation as I said. Shaft.ed was my night two.

[The Fonz]

unvote, vote Oman

In case it goes all grey screen on me later. I'll be turning in within the hour anyway.

[BillyTwilight]

I got it, went and checked (post #1019).

What exactly is your reason to avoid claiming at this point, Fonzy? I'm a big proponent of getting everything out on the table so scum can't try and manipulate their roleclaim to their advantage later in the game.

In fact, I think we need to get claims from all remaining players - Jitsu, Kison, and Fonzy. No more going back and trying to manipulate events/roles to anyone's liking as we approach endgame. My opinion, of course.

[BillyTwilight]

Just quickly read cicero with regard to Fonz on day 2 and 3. If he's faking a cop claim and innocent on Fonz he's doing a better job of it than I've seen before. Back that with cicero would be crazy to claim cop when he did as scum clears him, imo. Can't see him being a naive cop in this case either, so Fonz is either town or self-aligned.

Must hears from Jitsu and Kison soon.