Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[Frogsterking]

Also I feel like it's getting close to time for Raya to claim.

you arent even on the wagon and it isnt at L-1....

You are correct.

[Frogsterking]

I also don't have a meta read on RCE

I believe Raya has maybe played with some other players here before?

Yes I've played with a few people on the list before

Does that happen to be the players you're voting with?

Just RCE I believe?

Err before you ask I don't have any kind of meta read on Raya and I generally tend to scumread them.

Thank you both for answering this.

[Raya36]

Also I feel like it's getting close to time for Raya to claim.

I'm not L-1

[Raya36]

I'll only ever claim at L-1 with intent

[Frogsterking]

What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

[Tayl0r Swift]

What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

maybe youll stop blatantly rolefishing or youll be the one at L-2?

[Frogsterking]

For one thing, I believe a flash wagon on CFJ or Gamma is more likely than a flash wagon on RCE, because at least a few players have listed CFJ or Gamma as a compromise lynch. I'm personally willing to vote either one. If you're goal is to make it through D2 without getting to L-1, like it seems based on the statement you just said, then changing your vote to either of those players is a good place to start.

Second, I'm not willing to vote any of the players that were on-wagon D1, including your current vote, until I've seen flips or reports showing otherwise because I believe the shelly wagon was town driven. If you want to survive, much more get through today without getting to L-1, then I suggest you vote someone who was off-wagon that is being scumread by other players.

[callforjudgement]

@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

[Frogsterking]

lets do an exercise: everyone post your gun to head scumteam of two people with one extra person who might be scum for me please. this could potentially provide very interesting data.

looking at {raya, gamma} rn

maybe {cfj} but im starting to turn around on him for no real reason in particular

For the excercise,
I would go with raya + CFJ. if CFJ is town then look at gamma/ looker/italiano.

i think cfj will be an extremely high-info lunch. but i think raya is by far the most likely to be scum, so id still prefer to lunch there. we can dine on cfj tomorrow.

For the record, between the two (Raya and CFJ) I am more willing to vote for CFJ than Raya.

@Raya

The above indicate to me that you're only option to make it through D2 without reaching l-1 and claiming is probably a CFJ flash wagon, but maybe a Gamma flash wagon as well. Like I said I will vote for either.

The RCE wagon has been a passionate and vocal minority but still a minority.

[Raya36]

What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

I might get put at L-1 with intent. I might not. I'm not claiming before that happens

[Raya36]

For one thing, I believe a flash wagon on CFJ or Gamma is more likely than a flash wagon on RCE, because at least a few players have listed CFJ or Gamma as a compromise lynch. I'm personally willing to vote either one. If you're goal is to make it through D2 without getting to L-1, like it seems based on the statement you just said, then changing your vote to either of those players is a good place to start.

Second, I'm not willing to vote any of the players that were on-wagon D1, including your current vote, until I've seen flips or reports showing otherwise because I believe the shelly wagon was town driven. If you want to survive, much more get through today without getting to L-1, then I suggest you vote someone who was off-wagon that is being scumread by other players.

I'll consider it

[Raya36]

lets do an exercise: everyone post your gun to head scumteam of two people with one extra person who might be scum for me please. this could potentially provide very interesting data.

looking at {raya, gamma} rn

maybe {cfj} but im starting to turn around on him for no real reason in particular

For the excercise,
I would go with raya + CFJ. if CFJ is town then look at gamma/ looker/italiano.

i think cfj will be an extremely high-info lunch. but i think raya is by far the most likely to be scum, so id still prefer to lunch there. we can dine on cfj tomorrow.

For the record, between the two (Raya and CFJ) I am more willing to vote for CFJ than Raya.

@Raya

The above indicate to me that you're only option to make it through D2 without reaching l-1 and claiming is probably a CFJ flash wagon, but maybe a Gamma flash wagon as well. Like I said I will vote for either.

The RCE wagon has been a passionate and vocal minority but still a minority.

I don't think CFJ is scum. So that's a no. I don't really have any strong opinions on Gamma

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

That is a good question, if I recall correctly there was a quick trio of votes very late in the day: myself, Walter and Italiano, I would say that trio "drove" the wagon. I town read Walter and Italiano and am confirmed town to myself of course, so I believe the shelly wagon was town-driven.

Then tayl0r slid on after a short delay I think, then at the last minute geraintm, Nos and RCE voted creating the hammer. I am lightly town reading these slots that were also on-wagon as well, though I wouldn't describe them as "driving" the wagon as much as making sure it went through. I believe this second group was mainly voting on this wagon because they trusted the slots that were already on it more so than the Walter wagon and wanted to ensure a lynch went through.

[Frogsterking]

What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

maybe youll stop blatantly rolefishing or youll be the one at L-2?

If there is going to be an end-of-day fiasco I think it's better to instigate it with 48 hours to sort it out rather than 4 hours and 3/4 of the players MIA.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Gamma I'm going to go ahead and adjust my vote here but I will move it back to CFJ in a heartbeat. I believe CFJ is open wolfing, Gamma is coasting. Raya is my third choice for likely scum flip but still light years away from these two.

[Gamma Emerald]

For one thing, I believe a flash wagon on CFJ or Gamma is more likely than a flash wagon on RCE, because at least a few players have listed CFJ or Gamma as a compromise lynch. I'm personally willing to vote either one. If you're goal is to make it through D2 without getting to L-1, like it seems based on the statement you just said, then changing your vote to either of those players is a good place to start.

Second, I'm not willing to vote any of the players that were on-wagon D1, including your current vote, until I've seen flips or reports showing otherwise because I believe the shelly wagon was town driven. If you want to survive, much more get through today without getting to L-1, then I suggest you vote someone who was off-wagon that is being scumread by other players.

If it’s on RCE it’s not a flash wagon because there’s already a few votes on RCE

[Tayl0r Swift]

@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

That is a good question, if I recall correctly there was a quick trio of votes very late in the day: myself, Walter and Italiano, I would say that trio "drove" the wagon. I town read Walter and Italiano and am confirmed town to myself of course, so I believe the shelly wagon was town-driven.

Then tayl0r slid on after a short delay I think, then at the last minute geraintm, Nos and RCE voted creating the hammer. I am lightly town reading these slots that were also on-wagon as well, though I wouldn't describe them as "driving" the wagon as much as making sure it went through. I believe this second group was mainly voting on this wagon because they trusted the slots that were already on it more so than the Walter wagon and wanted to ensure a lynch went through.

actually i was the first on the wagon and pushed for other people to join

[Tayl0r Swift]

i do not like frogsters recent posts.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

That is a good question, if I recall correctly there was a quick trio of votes very late in the day: myself, Walter and Italiano, I would say that trio "drove" the wagon. I town read Walter and Italiano and am confirmed town to myself of course, so I believe the shelly wagon was town-driven.

Then tayl0r slid on after a short delay I think, then at the last minute geraintm, Nos and RCE voted creating the hammer. I am lightly town reading these slots that were also on-wagon as well, though I wouldn't describe them as "driving" the wagon as much as making sure it went through. I believe this second group was mainly voting on this wagon because they trusted the slots that were already on it more so than the Walter wagon and wanted to ensure a lynch went through.

actually i was the first on the wagon and pushed for other people to join

Then I would say only you drove the wagon, Italiano+Walter+my votes later solidified the wagon, and geraintm+Nos+RCE ensured the wagon went through.

i do not like frogsters recent posts.

I also do not like your recent posts.

[callforjudgement]

@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

That is a good question, if I recall correctly there was a quick trio of votes very late in the day: myself, Walter and Italiano, I would say that trio "drove" the wagon. I town read Walter and Italiano and am confirmed town to myself of course, so I believe the shelly wagon was town-driven.

Then tayl0r slid on after a short delay I think, then at the last minute geraintm, Nos and RCE voted creating the hammer. I am lightly town reading these slots that were also on-wagon as well, though I wouldn't describe them as "driving" the wagon as much as making sure it went through. I believe this second group was mainly voting on this wagon because they trusted the slots that were already on it more so than the Walter wagon and wanted to ensure a lynch went through.

My own view on this:

• Tayl0r started the wagon. She was consistent in having shelly as scum, and implied she wanted other people to vote the slot. She never once explained the reasoning behind the scumread (except an oblique reference in #690 which was mostly a refusal to explain), which may have made other people reluctant to join.
  
• Frogster/Italiano/Walter joined the shelly wagon in quick succession, effectively killing any chance that the geraint wagon would take off. I don't think this is particularly town-indicative for Walter, because he voted for both the plausible counterwagons to his (shelly and geraint) at around that time, and made it clear that he would switch back to geraint if needed. Unless geraint is scum, it is somewhat somewhat town-indicative for Frogster and Italiano (especially Frogster, who was quite vocal in stating that this was likely to be the best compromise).
  
  @
  Italiano
  /
  Walter
  : Did you discuss #820/#821 in your neighbour PT prior to voting? If so, what were you talking about?
  
• Looker joined the geraint wagon
  after
  it pretty much had no chance of going through.
  
• If not for the mod intervention in #833, shelly would almost certainly have been hammered as a consequence of me and RCEnigma changing vote (I had already promised to change my vote to avoid deadline expiring at a time between 9 and 39 minutes from that post, and RCEnigma had already promised to hammer if I did so).
  
• Instead, Nosferatu moved onto the shelly wagon. Not_Mafia asked geraint to revote it, and geraint did so. RCEnigma moved to shelly in between, making geraint's vote the hammer.

I think the shelly wagon was primarily PoE. I think that Frogster and Italiano are largely responsible for saving geraint (without knowing what was going on in Italiano/Walter's neighbourhood, it's unclear how much credit to give each of these two parties), that Nosferatu and Not_Mafia are largely responsible for the choice of shelly over Walter (a little strange because Not_Mafia's words were pushing Walter over shelly), and that Tayl0r is the primary reason why shelly was even seen as a valid compromise wagon in the first place.

In retrospect, it's also quite plausible that the reason the shelly wagon went through is that it was an "unexpected" wagon that grew very quickly, while one of the scum had flaked, giving scum less opportunity to interfere with it.

Purely based on the immediate circumstances surrounding the end-of-D1 wagons (rather than looking at the rest of the game), it looks like the most potential scope for scum on the shelly wagon are Tayl0r (who, although fairly active in general, was apparently offline at the critical moment and would have had huge trouble leaving the wagon convincingly at #839), Walter (who may well have just been following Italiano and made it clear that he'd move back to the geraint counterwagon), RCEnigma (whose strategy was, in effect, committing to only push a wagon over the line if it was likely to go through anyway, which is quite plausible for scum who is planning to bus if necessary but doesn't want to have to), and geraint (clearly willing to push either the Walter or shelly wagon). Meanwhile, Looker just looks bad from all this, especially if Walter turns out to be scum in addition to shelly. This analysis makes it very likely that Nosferatu is town. (I have a townread on Nosferatu anyway, but this reinforces it). It also makes me feel somewhat better about Italiano, who had probably the best opportunity of anyone to get Walter or geraint eliminated D1 rather than shelly (a simple "I'm neighbours with Walter and think he's scummy in the PT" would likely be enough to push a Walter wagon over the line, whilst being hard to disprove). Italiano's recent play has also been much more townish than his play earlier in the game (although he still needs to confirm his night action).

The above analysis got me thinking about Looker again, and I'd rather be voting for a slot that hasn't done much townish and has been flying under the radar (even if it hasn't done much that's particularly scummy), rather than a slot I'm conflicted about. VOTE: Looker

[Frogsterking]

@Raya: Your responses to my questions seem very townie looking at face value. I can’t know if this is your meta or not. Why do you feel it was okay to sacrifice shelly?

I feel like from my perspective I usually come across quite townie when I actually try as town. I wish I could give this game that effort right now. As scum I tend to be pretty obvious, I come across as unnatural and it's easy to see through my plans. Of course scum always feel like their scummy so maybe I'm not as bad at scum as I think?

Without knowing how you actually play as both alignments it’s hard to know what you mean by “obvious” and “unnatural”. What differences are there or can be seen when you are “trying as town” as opposed to not trying?

I don't remember saying I was okay with sacrificing Shelly but there was a lot of suspicion on that slot so even if I read it as town I'd have been fine with the elimination. I did consistently read her as scummy-appearing town. It's still interesting how easy that elimination went through when there wasn't much of a push.

It may go against the grain, but I like this response. I was asking Raya this question as if she was scum sacrificing her scumbuddy and she answered it oblivious to the reasoning behind the question. If you are faking this response Raya, then kudos to you.

Yes Raya and Italiano are both motivated by fear of being incorrect.

Italiano is more specific in that his fear is in being incorrect about his scum reads, which is causing him to double take his reads continuously. Raya also appears to fear being incorrect about her scum read on Walter, with the opposite reaction of doubling down under pressure.

Raya, the issue I have with your slot is that you're not only absent from the game, you also appear significantly guarded in your thoughts and feelings. Being busy explains the absence but not necessarily the guardedness.

I think appearing guarded in this lobby is quite a feat, because I don't think this is the most trusting group of people in the world.

Fear of being incorrect is not it at all. I could be wrong, but that doesn’t motivate my actions. The evidence of the shelly wagon and the interactions everyone had with that slot is pretty telling. Shelly is a confirmed flip so I want to use that information as the foundation for where I go. I don’t want to speculate, because I don’t have to.

Your solve is less accurate now than it was at the beginning of D2 fmpov. If the cause was not emotional then I'd guess you made a logical error during your analysis of the shelly flip.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

That is a good question, if I recall correctly there was a quick trio of votes very late in the day: myself, Walter and Italiano, I would say that trio "drove" the wagon. I town read Walter and Italiano and am confirmed town to myself of course, so I believe the shelly wagon was town-driven.

Then tayl0r slid on after a short delay I think, then at the last minute geraintm, Nos and RCE voted creating the hammer. I am lightly town reading these slots that were also on-wagon as well, though I wouldn't describe them as "driving" the wagon as much as making sure it went through. I believe this second group was mainly voting on this wagon because they trusted the slots that were already on it more so than the Walter wagon and wanted to ensure a lynch went through.

My own view on this:

• Tayl0r started the wagon. She was consistent in having shelly as scum, and implied she wanted other people to vote the slot. She never once explained the reasoning behind the scumread (except an oblique reference in #690 which was mostly a refusal to explain), which may have made other people reluctant to join.
  
• Frogster/Italiano/Walter joined the shelly wagon in quick succession, effectively killing any chance that the geraint wagon would take off. I don't think this is particularly town-indicative for Walter, because he voted for both the plausible counterwagons to his (shelly and geraint) at around that time, and made it clear that he would switch back to geraint if needed. Unless geraint is scum, it is somewhat somewhat town-indicative for Frogster and Italiano (especially Frogster, who was quite vocal in stating that this was likely to be the best compromise).
  
  @
  Italiano
  /
  Walter
  : Did you discuss #820/#821 in your neighbour PT prior to voting? If so, what were you talking about?
  
• Looker joined the geraint wagon
  after
  it pretty much had no chance of going through.
  
• If not for the mod intervention in #833, shelly would almost certainly have been hammered as a consequence of me and RCEnigma changing vote (I had already promised to change my vote to avoid deadline expiring at a time between 9 and 39 minutes from that post, and RCEnigma had already promised to hammer if I did so).
  
• Instead, Nosferatu moved onto the shelly wagon. Not_Mafia asked geraint to revote it, and geraint did so. RCEnigma moved to shelly in between, making geraint's vote the hammer.

I think the shelly wagon was primarily PoE. I think that Frogster and Italiano are largely responsible for saving geraint (without knowing what was going on in Italiano/Walter's neighbourhood, it's unclear how much credit to give each of these two parties), that Nosferatu and Not_Mafia are largely responsible for the choice of shelly over Walter (a little strange because Not_Mafia's words were pushing Walter over shelly), and that Tayl0r is the primary reason why shelly was even seen as a valid compromise wagon in the first place.

In retrospect, it's also quite plausible that the reason the shelly wagon went through is that it was an "unexpected" wagon that grew very quickly, while one of the scum had flaked, giving scum less opportunity to interfere with it.

Purely based on the immediate circumstances surrounding the end-of-D1 wagons (rather than looking at the rest of the game), it looks like the most potential scope for scum on the shelly wagon are Tayl0r (who, although fairly active in general, was apparently offline at the critical moment and would have had huge trouble leaving the wagon convincingly at #839), Walter (who may well have just been following Italiano and made it clear that he'd move back to the geraint counterwagon), RCEnigma (whose strategy was, in effect, committing to only push a wagon over the line if it was likely to go through anyway, which is quite plausible for scum who is planning to bus if necessary but doesn't want to have to), and geraint (clearly willing to push either the Walter or shelly wagon). Meanwhile, Looker just looks bad from all this, especially if Walter turns out to be scum in addition to shelly. This analysis makes it very likely that Nosferatu is town. (I have a townread on Nosferatu anyway, but this reinforces it). It also makes me feel somewhat better about Italiano, who had probably the best opportunity of anyone to get Walter or geraint eliminated D1 rather than shelly (a simple "I'm neighbours with Walter and think he's scummy in the PT" would likely be enough to push a Walter wagon over the line, whilst being hard to disprove). Italiano's recent play has also been much more townish than his play earlier in the game (although he still needs to confirm his night action).

The above analysis got me thinking about Looker again, and I'd rather be voting for a slot that hasn't done much townish and has been flying under the radar (even if it hasn't done much that's particularly scummy), rather than a slot I'm conflicted about. VOTE: Looker

I have many issues with this post, my first is that you said Italiano's recent play has been townish, and his recent play has been to vote me (after you claimed to hold a nearly conf-town behavioral read on me) and to post analysis of the shelly wagon very different from your own.

I also feel like you are shading tayl0r in this post and it makes me wonder if it's because she is softing pr.

I think the points you make in between these scummier ones seem solid, which causes me to suspect you're lying.

[Frogsterking]

In fact this post seems to be shading many of my town reads.

[GeorgeBailey]

;

[GeorgeBailey]

;