Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[geraintm]

Town has no reason to rely on Italiano being confirmed right now or not. Or even at all today.

If Italiano is FN then cool, he gets confirmed today and the day continues as normal. Let's say his target doesn't claim today, scum has to kill him tonight or he hits town tomorrow. It's not like he's in danger of being lynched even without the claim.

coming back from overnight.
man this game is weird.

but rcenigma, what do you mean by "or he hits town tonight". there is no garuentee that the person he targets is town from my understanding of the role

If it is a fakeclaim then why tell me in neighbor chat where he sent it too.
That would out his scumbuddy.

If you know you should be telling us. Italiano is hurting town and you holding back info is hurting town too.

Fuck no
I will let him or his target do it.
I won't answer for either of them.

I think I missed the bit where walter knew the target. walter - can you think of a god reason why he isn't telling us who he targeted?

CFJ again does weird meta analysis that I don't think adds anything to the game

agree with rayas post 1216

Four.

yeah, this is just going to annoy people.

If it is a fakeclaim then why tell me in neighbor chat where he sent it too.
That would out his scumbuddy.

at this point, with the disaster of losing one member of the team day 1, I am seriously considering that the remaining mafia just decided to go F It and try a hail mary play. I've been in games where an early claim just never got countered and they won from that, and I am thinking there is a non-zero chance that is what has happened here. I started off totally on board with claims (I am very, very trusting normally) but this has gone on too long

I wanted to spend time this morning looking at the people with the largest wagons, but this is sidetracked me....

[ItalianoVD]

I’m going to bed, but I’m gonna get some things off my chest real quick.

I don’t like the doubt being thrown around the town right now and it’s so obvious that it’s being done by scum. We were on track to look at the information from the scumflip. I’m pretty sure that’s the direction we were going in today, but misdirection is a powerful tool.

I think we should get back on track and get on these wagons and see what’s happening there. I was gonna give my analyses of the shelly flip after (1145 & 1170), both on and offwagon but these jokers have fully distracted the town and some of you have fallen right into it. Don’t do it, get your minds back on track and disregard the shade and the nonsense. And I’m not saying this to take the attention off of me. I want to lay it all out, just not right now. It’s not a stall, it’s a choice.

Another thing, I am not the leader of this town. Just because I am a TFN doesn’t mean everyone should just sheep me and do no work. My reads could be wrong. That’s why we all need to do work, interact, ask questions (about relevant things). I don’t care how much you ask me or pressure me, I am not giving you what you want. I have my reasons for not revealing who I used my ability on right now. It’s NOT anti-town, it’s NOT scummy, and it’s NOT “hurting” the town, I don’t care how many times you say it.

I will let the town know who I used my ability on when

I

choose to, not when you tell me to. If the one’s pushing this can’t get that, then I will simply ignore you all until I choose to reveal it. I am not intentionally trying to be a jerk, but just give it up. Let’s get this town back to actual scumhunting huh?

[ItalianoVD]

1224 was reference to cfj. There are only four people asking about the claim, not

everyone

like he is trying to frame it.

[ItalianoVD]

And don’t pressure Walter. He doesn’t know and it’s not his decision.

[Raya36]

I think this is a good time for Italiano to claim who he sent the message to

Why?

if theres only one neighborhood i find it to be exceptionally unlikely that its town-scum. if you're saying theres scum in you and walter,

then it almost has to be you cfj.

Yup.

Because of exactly what cfj said in 1185. All this is doing is hurting town. There is no reason for you not to claim who the message was sent to. If you have a reason I'd like to hear it.

If it is a fakeclaim then why tell me in neighbor chat where he sent it too.
That would out his scumbuddy.

If you know you should be telling us. Italiano is hurting town and you holding back info is hurting town too.

Tell me in your own words why it’s “hurting” town? Do you know?

1. Without you being confirmed because your message receiver hasn't spoken up puts suspicion on your slot. I honestly am thinking you're lying at this point but as a town reaction test, see how people react to an unconfirmed FN claim and see who tries to push it etc. This makes no sense coming from scum.

2. It does make reading players harder when one of the major events is your FN claim. The other major event being the Shelly wagon and contemplation on why it happened. I've been assuming you're town when reading but I hate trying to get reads on other players based on any associations with you. Especially knowing full well any reads slightly related to you could end up being thrown out and fully reevaluated. And I know I don't have to consider interactions with you and assume you're town but that's how I think when I read games. As soon as I confirm someone as town or locktown a player I start to think about how other players interacted with them.

3. If we find out last minute that you're not confirmed and could possibly be scum then that puts town in a pretty bad position, especially if any aspect of our reads are based on you being town. It means we would have to fully reevaluate with not much time left which could lead to a bad decision. I would also hate for a mis-elimination to go through knowing that we didn't have all the information we could have had and maybe with that information could've gotten scum.

This all sounds oddly familiar.

The reasoning is similar to what cfj said... you asked for it in my own words so there you go

[Raya36]

Isn't it somewhat likely at this point that the person you targeted is scum (assuming that your action went through, which you seem to be assuming even though I haven't)? They've failed to confirm you despite numerous opportunities and numerous people trying to convince them to do so, when there is no pro-town reason not to, and when they've been asked to do so by you (who should be confirmed town to them and thus they should be following your instructions).

I have a feeling this is true. This is why I'm pushing so hard for it to be claimed. Because for someone to hold it back this long for no apparent reasons besides I suppose reactions tests makes no sense. Its scummy and anti-town at best.

So then I should just vote for you, put you at L-1 and then claim the target? Then someone can hammer you?

If it gets the target claimed then honestly just do it. My slots not the best for mylo anyway when we eventually get there.

[geraintm]

I don’t like the doubt being thrown around the town right now and it’s so obvious that it’s being done by scum. We were on track to look at the information from the scumflip. I’m pretty sure that’s the direction we were going in today, but misdirection is a powerful tool.

hey, lets not just blame people concerned about your reluctance as derailing today. Rcenigma did a pretty good job too

[RCEnigma]

Votecount 1.13

shellyc(5)

~ Tayl0r Swift(42), Frogsterking(46), ItalianoVD(68), WaltertheDunce10(73), geraintm(70)

WaltertheDunce10(4)

~ Raya36(57), Not_Mafia(25), callforjudgement(68), Nosferatu(83)

ItalianoVD(2)

~ RCEnigma(66), shellyc(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(80), Looker(55)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

• prodding Not_Mafia
  
• looking for a replacement for shellyc

Out of these I’d rather we come back to Geraint. I’d also be okay with Italiano, but Shelly and Walter are townreads (at least, I was townreading Banana)

Does scum waffle here with a partner being the leading wagon?

[RCEnigma]

Raya and cfj pushing the same angle still.

Cfj I asked about Shelly being bussed because I would find it difficult to believe with a wagon already leading on scum!Italiano, with Shelly involved -- would then designate Shelly as the buss and have her lurk out.

Also the spearheads of both the cfj wagon and Italiano wagon were mostly present on the Shelly wagon. It makes the walter wagon look a ton worse in retrospect. I mean, worse than it did in being the counterwagon to a scum flip.

Add in the night kill, likely to specifically set up a walter elim, and cfj you are part of the tandem pushing these counter-town angles.

I've kind of been wanting to give you the benefit of the doubt because maybe you're just a townie on the wrong side of the tracks. But you have not had the thought that maybe you had been voting against town interest and were wrong on walter with A.) The wagon composition on scumflip and 2.) The company you are keeping. For example Raya with soft defending the Shelly slot before votes were in favor of flipping Shelly.

[RCEnigma]

I had a different thought to add at the end but got distracted and forgot it.

[RCEnigma]

I don’t like the doubt being thrown around the town right now and it’s so obvious that it’s being done by scum. We were on track to look at the information from the scumflip. I’m pretty sure that’s the direction we were going in today, but misdirection is a powerful tool.

hey, lets not just blame people concerned about your reluctance as derailing today. Rcenigma did a pretty good job too

We get it dude, rc confuse me, rc bad.

[Frogsterking]

My most recent thoughts were that Raya is scum and Looker is leaning town.

[RCEnigma]

Votecount 1.FINAL

shellyc(7)

~ Tayl0r Swift(48), Frogsterking(47), ItalianoVD(69), WaltertheDunce10(75), Nosferatu(85), RCEnigma(67), geraintm(74)

-- HAMMER

WaltertheDunce10(3)

~ Raya36(60), Not_Mafia(29), callforjudgement(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(82), Looker(56)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(70)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

Of the 4 remaining offwagon slots, coming into the day I had sjreaver/looker as the most likely town in that grouping. But lookers reasoning and timing on gerain is a lot less natural than gammas in general + a couple of town indicators in their iso puts gamma up there for now.

Looker has been on a downward trajectory since repping in but I don't know if that's necessarily scummy or if it's just him wanting to be contrarian.

[Frogsterking]

Votecount 1.FINAL

shellyc(7)

~ Tayl0r Swift(48), Frogsterking(47), ItalianoVD(69), WaltertheDunce10(75), Nosferatu(85), RCEnigma(67), geraintm(74)

-- HAMMER

WaltertheDunce10(3)

~ Raya36(60), Not_Mafia(29), callforjudgement(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(82), Looker(56)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(70)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

Of the 4 remaining offwagon slots, coming into the day I had sjreaver/looker as the most likely town in that grouping. But lookers reasoning and timing on gerain is a lot less natural than gammas in general + a couple of town indicators in their iso puts gamma up there for now.

Looker has been on a downward trajectory since repping in but I don't know if that's necessarily scummy or if it's just him wanting to be contrarian.

Yeah I feel that. I rationalized this with the idea that Looker is an unorthodox player, similar to the player he replaced, SJReaver, and is attempting to scumhunt/gamesolve by his own means, and kept Looker as a townlean.

[RCEnigma]

My townlean has been weakening, probably just by being in the poe but it isn't enough to put me off from cfj/Raya.

I'd put up my whole yugioh collection that there is at least 1 scum in cfj/Raya.

[callforjudgement]

I think we should get back on track and get on these wagons and see what’s happening there. I was gonna give my analyses of the shelly flip after (1145 & 1170), both on and offwagon but these jokers have fully distracted the town and some of you have fallen right into it. Don’t do it, get your minds back on track and disregard the shade and the nonsense. And I’m not saying this to take the attention off of me. I want to lay it all out, just not right now. It’s not a stall, it’s a choice.

Why didn't you?

This is a serious question. There is absolutely no reason you couldn't just post your analysis of the shelly flip, regardless of what you're otherwise talking about. If you think that people are trying to distract the town, and for some reason are unwilling to make the distraction go away when it would be trivially simple to do so, surely the next-best course of action is to ignore the distraction and continue with what you're doing anyway.

I was considering calling you out on this in the vicinity of #1169:

I will say that doing these ISO’s has completely destroyed whatever reads I thought I had. :eek:

This seems like valuable information that would help guide the scumhunting of the rest of the playerlist. If there's something that you missed that made you re-evaluate, maybe the rest of us would re-evaluate upon seeing it too. If you're town, surely you should value the rest of the town having accurate reads! #1169 was almost 36 hours ago. What is the town motivation for holding back information that helps us scumhunt correctly? What is the town motivation for

not doing what you've been trying to pressure other players into doing, and instead talking about the Friendly Neighbour result, which you've been trying to pressure other players into

not

doing

?

It is not me who has been distracting the town. It's you, and you have put a disproportionate amount of effort into it. I, and a number of other players, have been trying to get you to stop. You say that there are four players calling on you to disclose your result. A 13p Normal is almost invariably 10:3, so at least two (and quite possibly more) of those players must be town.

[callforjudgement]

EBWOP: I was considering calling out Italiano on this in the vicinity of #1169, but instead decided to wait to see if he posted the information of his own accord. Even if a hypothetically town Italiano has some sort of weird mental block against substantiating his claim (maybe he misread his role PM so badly he thinks he has a post restriction, or something), I would expect him to finish posting his analysis, especially as he's apparently written it already, rather than waiting another 36 hours for… what? Like, if he wants to do things in a particular order, why not immediately move on with the first choice on his TODO list?

[callforjudgement]

Also, given that there's been a (fairly) direct counterclaim at this point, I would expect Italiano to be voting Walter:

If it is a fakeclaim then why

tell me in neighbor chat where he sent it too

.
That would out his scumbuddy.

And don’t pressure Walter.

He doesn’t know

and it’s not his decision.

It shouldn't take more than a few minutes for Italiano to reread the Neighbour PT and verify whether the Friendly Neighbour target is listed there or not.

I can see zero reason why a hypothetically town Walter would lie about this. I can also see zero reason why a hypothetically town Italiano wouldn't immediately call out Walter if/when he did lie about it. If the stalling of results is some kind of overwhelmingly stupid reaction test, then this is surely the most informative sort of reaction you could hope for.

[callforjudgement]

VOTE: ItalianoVD

Normally, if someone claims a confirmable role early in the game, but it fails to confirm, you leave them alive for at least one more Night just in case something went wrong and it can all be fixed. But that assumes that there's actually an attempt being made to confirm the role.

If someone claims a confirmable role and then

retracts

the claim, that's different: there is now no prospect of the player being confirmed by Night actions, and they've caused a distraction / derailed scumhunting for no good pro-town reason. This normally makes the player look scummy, and Italiano was looking scummy Day 1 has been acting even more so Day 2.

In this case, Italiano hasn't retracted the claim by his words. However, he has, in effect, retracted the claim by his actions. He isn't acting in a way remotely consistent with a Town Friendly Neighbour (or Town Friendly Neighbour Neighbour); if he really did have such a role, I'd expect him to soon be in serious trouble with the listmods for repeated, outright, intentional flagrant breaches of the "play to win" rule. Everything he's been doing at all recently appears to be calculated to make it harder for the town to scumhunt; and his actions are completely inconsistent with his stated opinions (e.g. he's stated that the talk about his Night target is a distraction, but has failed to clear up this distraction even though it would be trivially easy to do so,

and

has been talking about the distraction rather than posting a list of reads he's apparently already created). This isn't a situation I've been in before, but I suspect that it's theoretically correct to vote Italiano out here. (There's very little risk to this wagon; if he's town, and thus telling the truth, he could stop the wagon at any time simply by finishing his claim. Normally, you don't want to take the risk of voting out a confirmable player, but in this case there is no way a hypothetically town Italiano wouldn't claim to save himself if he were anywhere in the same solar system as the "play to win" rule.)

[RCEnigma]

Hmm,I've got a theory actually but I still really want Raya out of here before I dive into that rabbit hole.

[callforjudgement]

I've also been thinking somewhat about who the remaining Mafia member is (after shelly and Italiano). My main views on this are that it's probably either Walter or RCEnigma.

During Day 1, when looking into the possibility/probability that Italiano and Walter were scum together, I decided to look for who the likely scumpartners were. I thought that shelly and RCEnigma were the most likely options. I can no longer remember what my reasoning for this was (and I didn't post it because I didn't think it was anywhere near strong enough to persuade people with, especially as it relied on associative tells D1; I often trawl through ISOs looking for things, but don't normally post the results unless I actually find something). I do, however, remember the reads themselves. shelly did actually turn out to be scum, which I think increases the odds that I was on the right track (and a shelly scumflip is not remotely a surprise if the counterwagon was also scum; a hypothetical Italiano+Walter+shelly team would have preferred a shelly elimination to a Walter ellimination because a Walter scumflip would have made Italiano look

really

bad).

My reads assuming that the Italiano+Walter pair is scum mostly came from the Italiano slot, however, which reduces the chance that Walter is correct in that solve. RCEnigma stands out as suspicious today not necessarily for the fakeclaim (it created a distraction at a convenient time for scum, but I can see a hypothetically town RCEnigma doing that without realising what the consequences would be), but rather for the actions beyond that. He's been prolonging the whole distraction with Italiano's target (which, although it benefits scum either way, is only mildly suspicious if Italiano turns out to be town, but really massively suspicious if Italiano is scum). He's been quite heavily focused on Raya as scum, and I don't get why he'd push her as scum in preference to me if he's town and thinks that both of us are scum (I know that he's been stating second thoughts on me, but the reads on me and Raya seem a little artificial). Meanwhile, I can see why scum would prefer to push Raya over me; she is probably less good at defending herself than I am, and would probably be an easier wagon to push over the line. So I'm currently in the weird position of disagreeing with the reasoning behind RCEnigma's wagon, but somewhat agreeing that the slot is scummy.

I'm a little concerned that scum have been trying to create an environment in which the general mood is "it's CFJ or Raya" in the hope that town goes along with it (many of the votes on Raya appear to be based on townreads on me, rather than scumreads on Raya). It's suspicious that nobody followed me onto Walter (even if he does turn out to be town), when Walter being scum is the simplest way to understand the shelly wagon; that makes me think that there's an attempt going on to manipulate reads within the town in general. Day 1, there was basically no wagon consolidation. Today, there is, but the top wagon is a slot that hasn't done much and is much less suspicious in terms of voting patterns than many of the other slots (especially me and Walter). It's hard to see how town gets there of its own accord. This is another factor that points towards RCEnigma as plausible/likely scum.

[RCEnigma]

Well, sometimes you gotta grab town by the balls.

[RCEnigma]

Like the trajectory of Raya was:

Scumread in walter/cfj - votes cfj
Frogster turns attention to nos and cfj wagon died out
Raya moves to walter because there are other voters
Walter wagon dies with cfj at L-3, Raya stays solo on walter.

There's no wagon on callforjudgement anymore while there is on Walter. Plus I can barely read judgements posts so I need to go back through later

So you voted for Walter because other people were voting for him?

No, I clearly stated in a post who the two people are I think could be scum (Walter and Judgement) and I explained why for each. I switched from Judgement to Walter because my vote was doing nothing and would be more powerful on a wagon

Doesnt follow through with this logic and explains staying away from the wagon on cfj (her scumread) where a vote would be useful by claiming pressure is better on walter to get reads and not cfj.

Then only really engages with walter over his stance on Nam's daycop joke. Which?? Confusion isnt alignment indicative.

Also makes no attempts to either : Case Walter or engage with townreads on their walter reads in any way.

If all of that sounds super town minded to you...... I guess.

[WaltertheDunce10]

Raya and cfj pushing the same angle still.

Cfj I asked about Shelly being bussed because I would find it difficult to believe with a wagon already leading on scum!Italiano, with Shelly involved -- would then designate Shelly as the buss and have her lurk out.

Also the spearheads of both the cfj wagon and Italiano wagon were mostly present on the Shelly wagon. It makes the walter wagon look a ton worse in retrospect. I mean, worse than it did in being the counterwagon to a scum flip.

Add in the night kill, likely to specifically set up a walter elim, and cfj you are part of the tandem pushing these counter-town angles.

I've kind of been wanting to give you the benefit of the doubt because maybe you're just a townie on the wrong side of the tracks. But you have not had the thought that maybe you had been voting against town interest and were wrong on walter with A.) The wagon composition on scumflip and 2.) The company you are keeping. For example Raya with soft defending the Shelly slot before votes were in favor of flipping Shelly.

I agree on this.

[WaltertheDunce10]

And don’t pressure Walter. He doesn’t know and it’s not his decision.

Agreed on second part.