Open 794 Pick Your Power X/Y (finished)
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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Spoiler:
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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I want you to know that I do NOT intend to effort AT ALL. I only hopped in to save the fay for dave, as I know how hard it is to find replacements these days. I may or may not read later, but certainly not at the time being.
P.S. Have there been any claims I should be aware of?
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iamausername Mafia Scum
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that would be a terrible role to fake claim, because whoever actually has the role would just shoot you, so i think it's safe to assume that Almost50 is being truthful about his role, no need to check for counterclaims.
doesn't mean he isn't scum, obviously. getting an extra kill seems like a pretty high priority scum choice.
all things considered, i continue to be happy with my vote.Elapsam semel occasionem non ipse potest Iuppiter reprehendere-
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Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
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Well, we can leash it now.It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!-
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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Sorry I missed this in my first visit. I see you're voting Gypx. So what's the case?
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DrDolittle Jack of All Trades
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i think this takes priority and we can play today like a double day?In post 903, Something_Smart wrote:Well, we can leash it now.-
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Clover Ebi Goon
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Green Crayons Jack of All Trades
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Using vig early game is generally anti-town, because it's more likely to be used against town than scum.
I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to using it to get rid of a lurker elim, but that would be A50 himself, so I don't see the benefit in using it now and see plenty of risk.
Maybeif we get a flip, then some serious discussion about associatives, I'd be much more comfortable with that +1 kill.
At this point, the thing that bothers me about A50 is the scummy replace out. I don't think an elim based on that alone is bad, but I'm also not particularly sold on it being the best option."This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).-
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Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
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Redirector would screw us now no matter what; they don't need to know the vig target to redirect the shot.It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!-
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Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
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By this logic executing early game is also anti-town. Using the vig on a scummy player who was likely to get executed anyway is fine.In post 907, Green Crayons wrote:Using vig early game is generally anti-town, because it's more likely to be used against town than scum.It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!-
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Green Crayons Jack of All Trades
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That we have to eliminate to even hit scum is entirely consistent with saying we shouldn’t use a second kill option early on when the pure numbers of scum:town ratio are not as good as they would be later on (if we don’t elim scum), or before we have a flip to discuss associatives (if we do elim scum)."This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).-
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Green Crayons Jack of All Trades
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Interested in this synopsis tbhIn post 904, Almost50 wrote:So what's the case?"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).-
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Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
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The first bit is a fallacy (it's not like our odds of killing scum depend on the order in which we use the kills if we assume they are independent), the second bit is valid but I don't really feel that associatives will really help us enough to save that flip for later, considering all the confounding factors (most notably, that A50 himself might be scum and we might get to see his flip sooner if we use his shot sooner). And the associative argument cuts both ways-- if we have two town-controlled kills before D2, we have (roughly) double the chance of having a scumflip to work with by then.In post 910, Green Crayons wrote:That we have to eliminate to even hit scum is entirely consistent with saying we shouldn’t use a second kill option early on when the pure numbers of scum:town ratio are not as good as they would be later on (if we don’t elim scum), or before we have a flip to discuss associatives (if we do elim scum).It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!-
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Green Crayons Jack of All Trades
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Green Crayons Jack of All Trades
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So who are your top vig candidates?"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).-
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DrDolittle Jack of All Trades
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I dont think this is true. saving the vig shot for later acts as a double day hedge if we don't manage to get scum.In post 912, Something_Smart wrote:
The first bit is a fallacy (it's not like our odds of killing scum depend on the order in which we use the kills if we assume they are independent),In post 910, Green Crayons wrote:That we have to eliminate to even hit scum is entirely consistent with saying we shouldn’t use a second kill option early on when the pure numbers of scum:town ratio are not as good as they would be later on (if we don’t elim scum), or before we have a flip to discuss associatives (if we do elim scum).
its only independent if you don't consider mafia kills.-
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Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
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Haven't the foggiest clue. This is why crowdsourcing is good.In post 914, Green Crayons wrote:So who are your top vig candidates?It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!-
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word321 Mafia Scum
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Am I the only one that dislikes the idea of a 1-shot vigilante entirely?
Particularly, I find a PGO way more townie, but that may be only my opinion and not alignment indicative by itself; but there r so many variables with scum prs in general and the raw odds of actually hitting town with that one shot its not even funny, even if we dnt consider the possibility of scumPlayed inNewbie 1992,Newbie 1997,Newbie 1999,Large Normal 227,Newbie 2006,Open 784,Open 787,Newbie 2019, Open 790, Newbie 2022.
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word321 Mafia Scum
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Even if the kill dsnt land on the objective, there isstillthe possibility of "simply blaming the redirector"Played inNewbie 1992,Newbie 1997,Newbie 1999,Large Normal 227,Newbie 2006,Open 784,Open 787,Newbie 2019, Open 790, Newbie 2022.
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word321 Mafia Scum
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So unless we r on the scenario that it lands exactly on a scum and scum dsnt have or dsnt want to use the redirector, every single other one is uselessPlayed inNewbie 1992,Newbie 1997,Newbie 1999,Large Normal 227,Newbie 2006,Open 784,Open 787,Newbie 2019, Open 790, Newbie 2022.
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word321 Mafia Scum
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I dnt know why scum would lie on that situation either, and I dnt know about how to feel about simply giving it a night to take the shot (or recieve the shot)Played inNewbie 1992,Newbie 1997,Newbie 1999,Large Normal 227,Newbie 2006,Open 784,Open 787,Newbie 2019, Open 790, Newbie 2022.
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word321 Mafia Scum
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I genuinely think it is less EV for townPlayed inNewbie 1992,Newbie 1997,Newbie 1999,Large Normal 227,Newbie 2006,Open 784,Open 787,Newbie 2019, Open 790, Newbie 2022.
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word321 Mafia Scum
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VOTE: A50Played inNewbie 1992,Newbie 1997,Newbie 1999,Large Normal 227,Newbie 2006,Open 784,Open 787,Newbie 2019, Open 790, Newbie 2022.
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Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
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Yes. Vig is significantly better than PGO.In post 917, word321 wrote:Am I the only one that dislikes the idea of a 1-shot vigilante entirely?It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!-
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Umlaut Jack of All Trades
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Why?In post 898, Something_Smart wrote:Hi A50! Somehow your predecessor's wagon cooled down significantly after a hella shady replace-out, but I think (and I doubt I'm alone in this) that you should claim anyway.
It's moot now because he did it, but why? I could maybe see if we were short on time but not with over 5 days on the clock.“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,and the other kind,’ and those whodon’tsay. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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