Mini 657 - Chain Reaction Mafia (Winner Announced)

[forbiddanlight]

/confirm

[forbiddanlight]

I don't think I get this; I mean, if one person is lynched, then wouldn't everyone die?

No. If lover E dies, than everyone after E dies. A, B, C, and D all stay alive. Basically, the goal is to make sure the scum don't get the valued position of lover A.

[forbiddanlight]

Then couldn't we just lynch Lover B and have a 10/11 chance of winning?

Actually, that was my plan. Try my best to gauge a townie getting spot A, and then lynching B down.

[forbiddanlight]

EBWOP: I'd like to do it myself but I'm not sure how many people would go for the idea of me being town, and proposing the idea makes it possible I'm scum trying to look townie with an "instant win" play and so graciously volunteering for the spot. I'll go with the town's wishes on who should get it if we can figure out how to gauge people.

[forbiddanlight]

The lover chain stage requires a list of lovers to be confirmed, this chain is long and for example, A loves B who loves C who loves D, who loves E etc. to K. there cannot be a break in the chain. When a fully valid chain is confirmed (by each player posting) LOVE: X the day stage will begin.

You forget the possibility that there might be mutual love occurrences, where two people love each other. This would invalidate your plan.

Also: Are we even allowed to discuss this stuff pre-game?

Well, I read it as it had to be a chain, not a loop, but to prevent game breakage you might be right. We'll have to see. I personally think we need to form an actual chain for that high victory chance.

[forbiddanlight]

Well, jeez. If it has to be a complete chain, then that would mean that if one person is lynched, EVERYONE dies.

Wait...DAMMIT! You are right...everyone has to love someone ...I forgot that...well crap. Forget my plans, I suck at them.

[forbiddanlight]

Alright. Well then, let's have some fun

Love: Cass

[forbiddanlight]

This is incorrect if E dies then D is the only alive player (they realise that it would be stupid to commit suicide if noone is there to grieve for them)

Wait. Before we continue. This makes my plan work. Love in any order, but DO NOT CROSS LOVE. Form a chain. We will spend the day discussing. When we've found someone that feels pro town that we can agree on...we kill the lover after them in the chain. That's the best way to play this I think.

[forbiddanlight]

So far, our chain is

Slayer<3Zombieslayer<3forbiddan<3Cass

Straight chain so far. Although someone will have to loop back to Slayer.

[forbiddanlight]

Well, that complicates things.


-----------malthusis<3forbiddan
Slayer<3Zombieslayer<3forbiddan<3Cass

Now what?

[forbiddanlight]

This is very embarassing. I just loved a player not even in this game because I can't pay attention whatsoever. Um...now I have no idea what to do.

Unlove

(Do I even have to? Everything got confusing!)

Love: Jex

Ok, so, fixed list, lol


-----------malthusis<3forbiddan
Slayer<3Zombieslayer<3forbiddan<3Jex

(seriously, I have no idea how this happened...I think I crossed games somehow)

[forbiddanlight]

-----------malthusis<3forbiddan
Tovarish<3Dynamo<3Crazy<3Slayer<3Zombieslayer<3forbiddan<3Jex

Malthusis, I think it'd be best for the town if you loved Tovarish right now instead of me.

[forbiddanlight]

-----------malthusis<3forbiddan
Mustafa<3Tovarish<3Dynamo<3Crazy<3Slayer<3Zombieslayer<3forbiddan<3Jex

In fact, malthusis, just love whoever is in the front of this list.

[forbiddanlight]

Alright then, I don't even need to try to direct a chain then. I guess my "plan" was how the game was meant to played, lol.

[forbiddanlight]

Aww. Why can there not be multi-love? I think it would make the game more interesting, myself...

It's for the purpose of balance of the set-up

Well, it SEEMS heavily in the towns favor. You discuss for awhile, and pick a lynch based on who's the least scummy. 10/11 chance of victory or a laughing scum. I wonder what tricks you have .

[forbiddanlight]

Mustafa<3Tovarish<3Dynamo<3Crazy<3Slayer<3ZombieSlayer
forbiddan<3Jex
Clockwork Ruse <3 Potates

Leaves us with three chains. Is there any possiblity of loose ends creating multiple chains?

[forbiddanlight]

Now, once we get a chain, we roll a die to get a random person, and then lynch that person. With that, we have a 9/11 chance of winning.

Hey! You know what happened LAST time something significant involved 9/11!

[forbiddanlight]

Mustafa<3Tovarish<3Dynamo<3Crazy<3Slayer<3ZombieSlayer
forbiddan<3Jex
Clockwork Ruse <3 Potates

Leaves us with three chains. Is there any possiblity of loose ends creating multiple chains?

If so, shouldn't we have everyone just be on a separate chain? I'm trying really hard to understand this game.

Mod: Is the reaction only good for when someone is lynched? Or for when someone is killed altogether?

But, as Crazy says, a single chain is actually best. Not seperate chains for everyone (that'd be impossible anyway unless you can love back :S)

Mod: Can you love back?

[forbiddanlight]

It puts it back to two chains anyway. Zombie and malthusis' loving of me didn't count because I can't have 2 suitors apparently.


Mustafa<3Tovarish<3Dynamo<3Crazy<3Slayer<3ZombieSlayer
forbiddan<3Jex<3Clockwork Ruse <3 Potates

Speaking of which, I do believe those are the only two left.

[forbiddanlight]

Malthusis<3Mustafa<3Tovarish<3Dynamo<3Crazy<3Slayer<3ZombieSlayer
forbiddan<3Jex<3Clockwork Ruse <3 Potates

Actually, ZombieSlayer as well. I forgot potates as well. Zombieslayer will have to love me again basically, and potates has to love you (due to the no double loving rule)

[forbiddanlight]

Mustafa<3Tovarish<3Dynamo<3Crazy<3Slayer<3ZombieSlayer<3forbiddan<3Jex<3Clockwork Ruse <3 Potates

Potates needs to show up and loop it back around. If anyone is changing their mind about who they love this is their last chance.

Love Forbiddan
Does that work? I think?

Yep. No one is trying to love me again.

[forbiddanlight]

Potates needs to be replaced, doesn't he?

[forbiddanlight]

malthusis<3Mustafa<3Tovarish<3Dynamo<3Crazy<3Slayer<3ZombieSlayer<3forbiddan<3Jex<3Clockwork Ruse <3 Potates<3malthusis

Yes, that's precisely it.

If the scum is one step behind the lynched scum, yes, they win. And they probably did just that in case of what you said. I personally think we need to discuss and find the most townish person...and lynch the person after them in the chain, allowing us to be almost certain a townie is left standing.

[forbiddanlight]

Hm, do we win if the second scum is second to last? (i.e. when temporarily one scum and one townie are alive?)
I'd think that not, and hence we'd need to find two townies in a row?

Maybe. I think that's a question left to the mod.

Mod, do we win if before the chain ends there is one scum and one townie?

[forbiddanlight]

And I don't support your idea of finding the most pro-town person, forbiddan, because that gives the scum ability to manipulate us. And I believe since we have an 82% chance of winning just by rolling a die, I think we should do that.

Dice can be fixed. They can even be fixed in a way that doesn't show evidence. Do you want to play mafia or craps? Part of the game is seperating who is truly town and who's play acting. I would most assuredly prefer our chances of using our minds to find someone who is pro town rather than trust dice.

[forbiddanlight]

One problem. Scum can still vote. If they thought they'd win, they'd vote self for the win or not vote self for the win. I don't approve.

[forbiddanlight]

Sorry about that. It would have been nice.

[forbiddanlight]

Still, just from suggesting that plan, I'd like to assume that TDC is town. If we don't want to go for a random lynch, I'll go for that.

We barely have a page of discussion. Why are you trying to push the lynch so quickly?

[forbiddanlight]

Seriously, discussion will not help as much as you're thinking. Discussion here will just give more time for the scum to manipulate us.

Did it ever occur to you everyone should check in first for lynch phase? Oh, and also it's a lot easier for scum to manipulate when we are trying to speedlynch someone rather than slowing down a bit and thinking.

And besides, TDC is my top pick for town so far. You have any ideas?

None. Since you know, only you, I, and TDC have checked in.

A better question, why do you want to stall this game so much, and reject every suggestion?

Maybe because your suggestion was manipulatable, and TDCs was complete failure anyway? I'm not stalling, I'm trying to save us from blindly following someone here.

Look, I'm a VERY bloodthirsty girl, and when I play mafia, I usually prefer faster days. But this is fucking ridiculous. I'm not gonna lose the game because you are trying to ramrod a lynch through that may or may not be advantageous to scum.

[forbiddanlight]

And if you disagree that TDC suggesting that plan makes him seem very pro-town, please tell me why. A plan doesn't have to work for it to be pro-town.

I disagree that any plan makes anyone look pro town. It's a null tell, and maybe a slight town tell. The fact it doesn't work makes it more of a null tell. I won't say he was intentionally misleading us (he likely wasn't), but it's still a possiblity.

More discussion will mean more time for the scum to look pro-town, or make their buddy look pro-town. It will be very hard to improve on an 82% chance of winning.

And more discussion would also allow any pro town acting scum to slip up. that's why longer days almost ALWAYS favor town.

[forbiddanlight]

One lynch. Do we REALLY want to fuck up the only lynch of the game? No, not really. So a discussing we will go.

Thank you. It's kinda lylo except for the unanimous vote thing (and thank god for that)

[forbiddanlight]

I'm not saying we should speed-lynch, but we should keep this game moving as fast as possible. If you want discussion, DISCUSS SOMETHING!!!!!

Well, first, I'd like everyone to show up and say hi or something. And we are discussing tatics for how the lynch should go, ne? I mean, I've already discussed why the two plans proposed aren't great. Well, to be fair, yours was good Crazy (except for the idea that dice can be fixed), it's just against the spirit of the game and I can't condone that.

Voting is what starts discussion, people. Saying "we need discussion" is a stupid attempt to look pro-town.

Yeah, but your voting is pressure or even motivated by anything. It's a "We will try to finish this game in 2 pages flat depending on dice".

[forbiddanlight]

And more discussion means more time for scum to slip up.

I prefer having a 99% chance of winning.

And more discussion would also allow any pro town acting scum to slip up. that's why longer days almost ALWAYS favor town.

No fair! I said it first

[forbiddanlight]

Or we discuss this game for a while, end up lynching Jex (because Forbiddan just LOVES discussion and can't POSSIBLY be scum), and losing the game.

You think I'm scum? Why not come out and say it? And I never vied to be the most pro town. I want to play mafia, and I don't want to be fucktarded about it, ok? Oh yeah, and I am town, thanks for the backhanded revelation.

ZS, you will not get an 99% chance of winning by adding discussion, since discussion usually helps the town, but when the town has such a high win percent rate anyway, it probably won't end up helping that much, and I'm sure that it has potential to hurt us.

Only if we have a bunch of sheep that can't think for themselves. Which you are obviously trying to make of us.

I want to discuss TDC, since it's really hard for me to imagine him being scum while coming up with a gamebreaking plan.

Only if it wasn't intentional misleading. I doubt it was, but given how scummy YOU'VE been acting and your covering for him makes me wonder.

Now, of course, I know we can lynch Slayer right now and win the game, but there's no convincing you guys of that fact.

Can you tell me why you know this for a fact? Perhaps it's because you know the mafia's positions, right?

The opportunity that you're missing here is that this is a game where you can freely act as scummy as you want without fear of being lynched, since the goal of this game is to find town, not scum.

And how the fuck does acting scummy help us win ANYWAY?

I want to discuss TDC, since it's really hard for me to imagine him being scum while coming up with a gamebreaking plan.

What do you want to discuss about him?

[forbiddanlight]

Forbiddan, ask yourself this. What part of willing to lynch someone based on a die roll makes me scummy? It gives an 82% chance of win for the town, and I was supporting it before I even knew that the target was Tovarish.

And you still haven't proven that you can rig dice. I stand by my argument that you can't unless if you show me that you can do it.

I personally can't. But take a look at Roll to Dodge in the Mishmash forum for an idea.

Slayer's after me on the chain. I know I'm town. Thus, I know lynching him would cause a town victory.

Fair nuff, I wasn't paying attention

If you're not worried about staying alive, you can get more interesting reactions from people. Stop playing like you would in a normal game, and don't be afraid to get your hands a little dirty.

Ah, but I'm not. If I were, I'd be voting you right now. Instead I'm trying to stall us enough so everyone gets a say rather than you throwing a speedlynch at us. People naturally follow someone who has taken the mantle of leadership. That's precisely what you are attempting to do, and I'm countering that best I can.

Forbiddan, ask yourself this. What part of willing to lynch someone based on a die roll makes me scummy? It gives an 82% chance of win for the town, and I was supporting it before I even knew that the target was Tovarish.

It's mostly the fact dice can be rigged. This actually isn't the point I find scummiest about you. It's the fact you are just trying to throw us into a lynch without even letting thought prevail, which is the point of the game.

Oh, and you could at least do the mod a favor and not break his game with chance.

[forbiddanlight]

Oh, actually, you're right about the dice thing, forbiddan. But I don't think it works in mafia games, since we can't edit our posts:

I didn't even make that connection. I should have realized this. Alright, fair enough. Die rolls can't be broken. And the preview method doesn't work far as I know.

I love towntells, and I use them far more than most people, since most people just say OMG WIFOM whenever they hear someone talk about towntells. I believe TDC did a town-tell when he proposed his plan, since there is no reason that scum would propose to lynch a random person.

They would if that random person worked in their favor. Did you roll before or after he told you the plan? And also, didn't he just say person A, i.e top of the list? Just trying to see if I remember correctly.

I am sorry about this, and I do apologize to Max, but we're supposed to play the game to win, not try to play the game the way the mod intended.

But a win is much more satisfying when it's earned, not because someone broke the game with dice. I only like using dice when the odds are against me personally. It's a different sense of accomplishment when you make fate bow to you. This however is just a roll and we usually win. no fun at all. The chaos isn't there. So I'd rather win by finding the towniest.

[forbiddanlight]

Fair enough, I guess. Then that's why I'll advocate Malthusis' lynch.

Note that I have completed 5 games as town. I've lost 4 of them. The only one I one was Texas Justice, in which the setup was broken

That's why the whole town is to weigh in...I wasn't saying one of us pick. Consensus will raise our chances.

Crap, I'm an idiot. I forgot that the chains will work backwards.

Unvote
Vote ClockworkRuse

I'm assuming the first quote I quoted was sarcasm, or else you directly contradict yourself.

I'm not leading the town. That's not my style.

Yet you appear to be in the posts where you are pushing the dice on us.

Nobody seemed to mind the fact that Fonz broke the game, except Sun Tzu. I mean, seriously, who would complain about a win?

Well, I personally feel it's only fun if there was work done. Maybe I'm old school like that. But rolling dice to win the game with such a high margin of victory just feels dirty and undeserved.

I rolled after he said that plan.

As far as I can tell from that post, I'm almost positive that "A" is just a random variable and doesn't refer to a specific person.

Fair enough. I might have misread.

ZS, your post feels vaguely of buddying. I mean, it could be a null tell, especially given Crazy's actions thus far and that being the main point you agree with me on, but I don't want you starting to get complacent in me being town. You probably aren't yet, and I'd like to stave that off.

[forbiddanlight]

So it was always crystal clear for you that we need any 9 votes and not 9 town votes?

It was for me. I'm still chalking it to misunderstanding.

Yes, it was a variable. Though I was not thinking of using dice for that. More along the lines of "If we're reasonable sure that A and B are not scum together and B is the person that survives if A is lynched, try my plan on A".

Then my mistake.

[forbiddanlight]

I agree with you. You seem pro-town to me. A person I deem anti-town is making illogical attacks on you. Therefore, I defend you.

Nyeh, it's fine. I tend to be self conscious when people agree. Like when I do an analysis there's always someone saying "Ah, I'll totally follow that summary and analysis"...I HATE that because it means they turned off their brains. So, nip in the bud and all that.

[forbiddanlight]

Actually, ZS, you're looking a lot more town to me than forbiddan.

And why precisely do I look scummy? Because you are trying to break the game with dice and I want to play mafia? Geez...

[forbiddanlight]

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... Too_Townie

[forbiddanlight]

No, I'm actually not trying to look townie. I'm sorry I come off that way but I really can't help how it looks to you. I still say you are using a Too Townie argument, because I'm honestly trying to have a town win by actually playing mafia.

[forbiddanlight]

Well, it doesn't really make a difference to me. I mean, I think you could be scum, but since we're not trying to lynch scum here, that's all kind of pointless. The goal of this game is to find town, not to find scum. So our town-hunting skills are much more valuable than our scum-hunting skills here.

So far, I think TDC is most likely to be town.

I'm still waiting for everyone. Then I can assess within context of everyone else. I lean town on TDC, but I still can see scum possiblities for his plan.

[forbiddanlight]

You have the plan. The plan that may or may not have been a mistake or intentional misleading. I don't think that's enough to declare someone pro town.

[forbiddanlight]

The plan, if it had worked, would do wonders for the town. And since I had misinterpreted Max's comment the same way as TDC said he did, I'm inclined to believe him.

I suppose it's possible. I personally thought it was obvious, but still. But it's still WIFOMable, so I wouldn't exactly hang the hopes of the town on it.

[forbiddanlight]

so in this game, under these conditions yes disscusion=not good.
reallizing this those who wish disscusion are decidedly anti-town.

Why? Discussion is rather good if people don't turn their brains off. 82% is worse than what we might get if we actually...yanno...play mafia. It could be better, but that'd be the fault of bad play. Do you not trust yourself to play well enough to win on your wits rather than dice?
and

Vote:Jex

for posting above me.

[forbiddanlight]

lol. i just came back and read this and realized that I meant to say "for no real reason" but apparently I was thinking about movies when I was typing. Interesting.

Obviously the scum want to take their loved ones to movies so that they can kill them! And thus start the chain causing them to win. I'm amazed I missed it before! It's airtight everyone.

[forbiddanlight]

*shrug* This is basically a normal D1, and from my experience D1 lynches are seldom better than random. They're far more useful for the following days (which we don't have, we only have this).

The only information that we do have is who loves who, so I guess the question is whether partners would want to chain themselves together or try to avoid that.

Actually, this isn't a normal D1. We are looking for who is town for the most part, rather than who is scum. I'm not sure if this is easier than harder, but the goal is to lynch whoever is after our paragon of towniness.

[forbiddanlight]

[quote="forbiddanlight in post 144]
and

Vote:Jex

for posting above me.
[/quote]


Hi mod

[forbiddanlight]

never underestimate the stupidity of people in groups...

Meetings. None of us are as stupid as all of us.

But then again, we can't be all that stupid. The scum don't overwhelmingly defeat town. It's pretty good win loss ratio, right...I hope?

[forbiddanlight]

besides the fact that I honestly don't see us geting a unanimous town vote with anything other than a random vote, and someones dice already picked tovarish.

It just has to be 9 votes. If scum want to jump on it their vote counts. Otherwise this would be easily broken by the method TDC outlined. I'd rather wait to get more discussion, but I'm slowly getting less sanguine about that possibility.

[forbiddanlight]

Are we just kinda...not talking anymore?

FINE, and if we lose I'm going to go I told you so on Crazy's ass

unvote, Vote:Tovarish

[forbiddanlight]

Forbiddan, why are you giving up so soon?

Because, I'm bored of this. No one wants to listen to freaking reason, and the game needs to pick back up. If people are willing to actually discuss again, I'm fine with unvoting.

[forbiddanlight]

Here's the way I see it. Either Crazy is one of the scum and got lucky, or Slayer is one of the scum and got unlucky. At this point, as much as I'd prefer actually playing the game of mafia rather than dice, I know there's going to be no popular support against a supposed 82% chance. I'm no statistician though. Has anyone actually checked Crazy's numbers?

[forbiddanlight]

9/11 is 0.82, yes. And 9 of 11 possible lynches result in town win.

Yeah, I know that. But are there any other factors to contribute? Like are we sure about the 9 out of 11 and such? I think we are...I dunno, this just seems too easy.

[forbiddanlight]

All it will do is result in a loss.

So, uh, how do you know that? 82% is hard to argue with :S.

[forbiddanlight]

Sorry forbiddan, it looks like you were town after all.

I'm still pissed you know. We are completely profaning the point of playing a game and instead playing craps. It's just I know no one is going to listen to me so I might as well get this over with and hopefully add a town win to my siggy.

[forbiddanlight]

ACtually, Crazy thinks Tov or must are scum because they aren't posting and forcing us to wait til someone comes back to their senses before the hammer drops. At least that's my take.

[forbiddanlight]

ok i didn't realize the setup when i posted that first. i didn't know it was lylo from the start and by lynching me you are actually picking the person i love. which i think is dynamo. are yall sure you would like to vote me and pick a person i don't think has posted as your town choice? i think there are def. better choices to be made. however i think ZS is scum. he seems like he is trying to act like a townie by acting all conservative and trying to use that to persuade the town. however i don't see that voting me will be that great since i don't think dynamo has posted in a while. so UNVOTE, VOTE: Forbiddan

Ok...let me get this straight. You think ZS is scum...so you want everyone to kill me...ENSURING that ZS stays alive? I don't think you understand the set up. By voting you, we are picking who loves you as town, although we really just rolled dice.

[forbiddanlight]

Actually, forbiddan, you got it backwards. Killing you would leave Jex alive. Killing ClockworkRuse would leave TDC alive.

Afatchic, why do you believe Jex to be pro-town?

You are right, I did screw up. I had my concepts reversed. But again, why is Jex pro town again? No offense, but she's barely posted :S.

[forbiddanlight]

well no offense but in this type of game the scum can't sit back and just lurk like you can in a reg. mafia game. so with that said i don't think either of you couple trying to lead the group is a good candidate to have as our last one. and im not too sure about jex, i had some names confused when i read through the first time. however i do think TCD is pro-town so im leaving my vote there.

But, wasn't your argument for not killing you that we'd leave a lurker alive? And, I honestly don't care about dying. I do care about losing. I have no indications either way on Jex, and not really on TDC either.

[forbiddanlight]

I would also at this point leave forbiddan alive. I've changed my mind about her.

Interesting how that coincides with my reluctant agreement with your methods. I don't like that, but I also don't see how it benefits scum :S.

[forbiddanlight]

Fair enough when put like that. It's just the name of the game is suspicion. It's kinda odd to be cleared.

[forbiddanlight]

Well, if that's our plan, I will

Unvote, Vote Zombieslayer

[forbiddanlight]

m. Also at first I thought afatchic might be scum because of the way he just kept hopping off votes but after reading Crazys post I see otherwise.

Torvish I would say might be scum because of the way ZS has been opposing (or at least trying to delay) the killing of him.

Tovarish and afatchic are the same person :S.

[forbiddanlight]

BWAHAHAHAH! YOU ALL ARE FOOLS! I AM TOTALLY

Townie. Yes, I know, I am incredibly lame.

Well, that was interesting. Anticlimatic though.

[forbiddanlight]

You sure you're town? Because saying that you were when you were really scum would be really mean.

I wonder who the scum were.

I'm a bitch, but not that much of one. I'm indeed a townie. I'd post my role PM but it'd kinda be ironic to be modkilled before the lynch went through and cause a scum win somehow.

[forbiddanlight]

Well then. I'm still a little confused by this game. D= Absolutely positively confused.

Well, it's over and town should have won. We are waiting for MAx to confirm.

[forbiddanlight]

Why was Jex left alive? I'm confused :S? I mean, it's cool though we won! And it was actually because I seemed pro town. This one makes me happy .

[forbiddanlight]

The hilarious part of the flavor is as far as I can tell me and Jex are both girls.