SSW III: Game over

[raider8169]

What about if we lynch Jebus?

Also if we lynch Jebus or Septia we will get our night actions to confirm. I dont think you see the strength in that because you dont have a part in it.

Donkeyz and me have had 3 votes on the day, both wagon for us are the same as the old donkeyz bandwagon just jumped to me after you did. With a bunch of other people jumping on and off that wagon I think that means there is enough doubt that we are scum.

If I am the lynch for the day please review my previous posts for people to look at for tomorrow.

We still have a little time but not much.

Vote count

(10 players alive = 6 to lynch before deadline)
(4) Septia – farside22, donkeyz12212, cerebus3, raider8169
(3) raider8169 – SpyreX, Lord Gurgi, Porkens
(1) donkeyz12212 – Jebus
(1) Jebus – Cass

Not voting:

, Septia

Deadline:

Saturday 9 August 2:00 PM (GMT -5 according to forum clock)

[Porkens]

Ok, lets try it like this.
If you and Donkey are town:
Lynching you, proves that the power role is town.
If you and Donkey are scum:
Lynching you, proves that Donkey is scum handing us two scum.

It wouldn't actually prove that Donkey is scum since Maf could have a rolecop. Raider could have known that Donkey was an Alpha Wolf and just obfuscated his claim to make it seem more likely. None the less, I'd be much more inclined to believe Donkey if Raider flipped town.

I really suspect that Jebus is some kind (human or Bwolf) of scum "hero" more strongly than I suspect Raider/Donkey (never thought I would say that). I'm leaning this way because of discrepancies in Jebus' posts, the over-powered nature of the role claimed, and the odd flavor.

But I also have no desire to ML the town's power role.

So either choice seems equally good/dangerous to me. Playing it safe I'd go with Raider. Balls to the wall I'd go with Jebus.

Raider, unless you think both Donkey and Jebus are town, and if you're pro-town you should be fine with this, especially since you can't actually USE your protect yet.

[cerebus3]

I guess I can get on the Jebus wagon.

[Porkens]

Following my MYLO paranoia:

Town: Pork, Spy, Gurgi, Cass, Raider, Donkey, Sept.

Maf: Farside, Jebus Cerb

That's who it has to be for it to be 50% chance of mylo today.

[cerebus3]

Following my MYLO paranoia:

Town: Pork, Spy, Gurgi, Cass, Raider, Donkey, Sept.

Maf: Farside, Jebus Cerb

That's who it has to be for it to be 50% chance of mylo today.

Why not spyreX and gurgi?

[Porkens]

To be completely fair; you could swap me and cerb on that list.

[Porkens]

Following my MYLO paranoia:

Town: Pork, Spy, Gurgi, Cass, Raider, Donkey, Sept.

Maf: Farside, Jebus Cerb

That's who it has to be for it to be 50% chance of mylo today.

Why not spyreX and gurgi?

That list is assuming the she-wolves/cubs are all true claims and town.

[SpyreX]

Raider - we've all claimed. All your night action would do is confrim what, really, would happen from your lynch.

Yea, I'm being more conservative in wanting the real power roles to live to do something. Also banking against lynching Septia today.

I am lynching either Raider or Jebus. I'd prefer Raider.

[cerebus3]

Following my MYLO paranoia:

Town: Pork, Spy, Gurgi, Cass, Raider, Donkey, Sept.

Maf: Farside, Jebus Cerb

That's who it has to be for it to be 50% chance of mylo today.

Why not spyreX and gurgi?

That list is assuming the she-wolves/cubs are all true claims and town.

and raider/donkeyz?

[Porkens]

If Septia is telling the truth, and we lynch him, we will lose.

[Porkens]

Following my MYLO paranoia:

Town: Pork, Spy, Gurgi, Cass, Raider, Donkey, Sept.

Maf: Farside, Jebus Cerb

That's who it has to be for it to be 50% chance of mylo today.

Why not spyreX and gurgi?

That list is assuming the she-wolves/cubs are all true claims and town.

and raider/donkeyz?

Ahem; IF Raider is a misslynch, AND the she-wolf claims are true and town, THEN there is a 50% chance that maf will kill the Cass's wolfmother (IFF they kill gurgi or spy.)

[cerebus3]

If Septia is telling the truth, and we lynch him, we will lose.

how does us lynching septia change the scenario from us NOT lynching him? Same number of people die.

[Lord Gurgi]

If Septia is telling the truth, and we lynch him, we will lose.

My growing problem with Septia is that he/she is not defending him/herself.

[Porkens]

If Septia is telling the truth, and we lynch him, we will lose.

Let me make this more obvious:

If Septia is telling the truth, and we lynch him, we will lose.

[cerebus3]

Following my MYLO paranoia:

Town: Pork, Spy, Gurgi, Cass, Raider, Donkey, Sept.

Maf: Farside, Jebus Cerb

That's who it has to be for it to be 50% chance of mylo today.

Why not spyreX and gurgi?

That list is assuming the she-wolves/cubs are all true claims and town.

and raider/donkeyz?

Ahem; IF Raider is a misslynch, AND the she-wolf claims are true and town, THEN there is a 50% chance that maf will kill the Cass's wolfmother (IFF they kill gurgi or spy.)

ok. Just wanted to point out that another possible scum group is {donkeyz, raider, me/you/farside}

[cerebus3]

If Septia is telling the truth, and we lynch him, we will lose.

Let me make this more obvious:

If Septia is telling the truth, and we lynch him, we will lose.

OK let me make this more obvious: THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LYNCHING HIM AND NOT LYNCHING HIM IF HE IS TELLING THE TRUTH, THE SAME NUMBER OF TOWNIES WILL DIE IF WE MISLYNCH.

[Porkens]

If Septia is telling the truth, and we lynch him, we will lose.

how does us lynching septia change the scenario from us NOT lynching him? Same number of people die.

Are you serious?

If septia is telling the truth:

Town Lynches Septia (-1 town)
Maf killls Spy (-1 town)
Maf kills Gurgi (-1 town)
With no mother, Cass dies (-1 town)

If we hang anyone else (even a misslynch)

We hang X townie (-1 town)
Maf kills Sept (-1 town)
Maf kills Gurgi or Spy (-1 or -2 IFF they hit the right she-wolf)

I

[cerebus3]

If Septia is telling the truth, and we lynch him, we will lose.

how does us lynching septia change the scenario from us NOT lynching him? Same number of people die.

Are you serious?

If septia is telling the truth:

Town Lynches Septia (-1 town)
Maf killls Spy (-1 town)
Maf kills Gurgi (-1 town)
With no mother, Cass dies (-1 town)

If we hang anyone else (even a misslynch)

We hang X townie (-1 town)
Maf kills Sept (-1 town)
Maf kills Gurgi or Spy (-1 or -2 IFF they hit the right she-wolf)

I

Hmm... I didn't think about that. You have proven me wrong. touche.

[Lord Gurgi]

If Septia is telling the truth, and we lynch him, we will lose.

how does us lynching septia change the scenario from us NOT lynching him? Same number of people die.

Are you serious?

If septia is telling the truth:

Town Lynches Septia (-1 town)
Maf killls Spy (-1 town)
Maf kills Gurgi (-1 town)
With no mother, Cass dies (-1 town)

If we hang anyone else (even a misslynch)

We hang X townie (-1 town)
Maf kills Sept (-1 town)
Maf kills Gurgi or Spy (-1 or -2 IFF they hit the right she-wolf)

I

What you're saying is that if she's telling the truth, we have a 50% chance of losing, that would suggest that out best chance is to lynch her, because if she's town we've basically already lost. However, I am quite sure that raider is scum.

[SpyreX]

Well, with that, maybe taking the damn vote off would be a good start.

I dont see why, with the chance to garner information, we're going after a role that is either 1 scum with no connections or potentially LOSING THE GAME.

Come on now

[Porkens]

What you're saying is that if she's telling the truth, we have a 50% chance of losing, that would suggest that out best chance is to lynch her, because if she's town we've basically already lost. However, I am quite sure that raider is scum.[/quote]

There's a gigantic difference between 50% and 100%, wouldn't you agree? Are you saying the best chance we have is to throw the game away?

There's also the possibility that she is scum, I'm not denying that.

There's also the possibility that we wont misslynch if we hang someone else.

I think it's incredibly reckless to hang Sept. right now.

[cerebus3]

unvote,vote:Jebus

I still think septia is scum, but whatever.

[farside22]

There is no way the scum is getting 2 kills with no night. I repeat there is no night. They wouldn't have a clue that a day was skipped so how would they get 2 kills when night actions have to be in before the end of the day lynch?

[Lord Gurgi]

Here's my problem, if all our current theories are true, we have two scum groups, a princess, two lovestruck roles, that is SOME BASTARD MODDERY right there.

[Porkens]

There is no way the scum is getting 2 kills with no night. I repeat there is no night. They wouldn't have a clue that a day was skipped so how would they get 2 kills when night actions have to be in before the end of the day lynch?

How hard would it be for the mod to send a PM saying: "gg, you get another night action"?