Mini 579 - The Plagues of Egypt Mafia - Over

[lord_hur]

Mr Stoofer, could you briefly comment my post 1024 ? I think it's a fairly important point.

[Lawrencelot]

- Guardian uncovered himself, while he perfectly could have continued to breadcrumb, especially since he knew the only person who had noticed it, Mr Stoofer, was buying it ;
- breadcrumbing cop really looks to me like a terrible strategy for scum, as it would make them a prime target for the real cop ; the reason invoked by Guardian (trying to get NKed instead of the real cop) at least makes enough sense to be taken as a good strategy (by someone who never tried it, of course) ;
- Guardian was playing in a self-destructive way : claiming instead of continuing to play along, not defending himself much, saying that his lynch wasn't a big loss, etc. This is not scum play, but it does make sense for a miller.

-The fact that only Mr Stoofer was buying the breadcrumbs, doesn't matter, especially if Stoofer is scum. You say he would have continued to breadcrumb if he was scum, but there is also no reason to stop breadcrumbing as a miller.
-Breadcrumbing cop is not at all a bad strategy for scum. When you're close to a lynch, a townie claim won't help you, and a cop claim will only help you if it's believable. If the real cop counterclaims, your buddy can kill a cop.
-It is not scum play indeed, but it also doesn't make sense for a miller

at all

. If you're a miller, that's not the end of the world for you. You are a townie in every aspect until a cop investigates you. Heck, how would he know that there even was a cop in this game? If there was no cop, there was no reason at all to act any differently from a townie. If there was a manner in which his play made sense, then it was if he was scum who wanted to claim miller, but even when I assume this I'm confused about his play.

I'm on page 12. I find VoD's play very interesting. What is the general consensus on his alignment? Are we assuming players who are killed at night are town?

Mr Stoofer: what do you think strife/VoD is: scum or town?

[Mr Stoofer]

Mr Stoofer, could you briefly comment my post 1024 ? I think it's a fairly important point.

Sorry, I missed that because it was at the bottom of the page. Yes I think you are right and I was wrong (sorry).

Mr Stoofer: what do you think strife/VoD is: scum or town?

I think he was Town for two reasons:
1. TVoD's interactions with Guardian day 1. TVoD was a very unsophisticated player. I do not think he was bussing.
2. Because strife was nightkilled - and he was the only kill that night. Occam's razor tells us to assume for now that he was town.

[lord_hur]

2. Because strife was nightkilled - and he was the only kill that night. Occam's razor tells us to assume for now that he was town.

Furthermore, there was never more than one kill each night.

Lawrencelot, you are making excellent points. Due to these and Mr Stoofer's recent play (seriously, great job if you're scum), I have to modify my assessment of him. I still think there's a good possibility he's scum, but not as overwhelmingly so as before.

Okay, I was keeping this for later but :

If we are in LyLo, then there is a great deal to be said for a massclaim now.

How do you reconcile this with your current reluctance for claiming? The question is twofold :

- If you think we are in LyLo, why don't you advise a massclaim now? What has changed ?

- If you suggested a massclaim back then, I assumed it was because you thought that revealing your own role would not hurt town that much. But your current play strongly suggests that you do mind revealing it, and that it is such an important one that it should not be disclosed, even in LyLo. I am not asking (at least as of now) what your role is, but as you were asking what elements I have against you, this inconsistence is one of them.

[HackerHuck]

Lets go back to post 910 where I asked you about your narrowed list of scum.

Since then, I've gone through all of your posts and you have done absolutely no scum hunting. Instead, I've seen a lot of theorising and misdirection. I don't know how you can think you've been pro-town, when all you've been doing is making a lot of noise. How about you actually tell us who you think is scum now. I'm still waiting on the results of your reread from back then...

[Lawrencelot]

Lord Hur: I was not trying to convince you of Stoofer's townieness... Why do you think Guardian and Stoofer can't both be scum?

Right, Stoofer says VoD was town, yet he went after him for at least 10 pages. Do you admit you were wrong about him on Day 1 Mr Stoofer?

Post 235 (page 10) is a case by Slysly on Guardian. It contains obvious arguments, but then again Guardian looked obvious scum to me (easy for me to say, I know). Guardian responds with an "Oh snap!". Not a very convincing defense. After this, you can clearly see which players defend Guardian, and which don't. I'll quote the part of the discussion that matters:

<case on Guardian>

O SNAP!

I really hate SlySly's post 235 - it just screams scum at me (except I agree that Guardian's case against hasdgfas was weak). I'd be on for a SlySly lynch if none of the other bandwagons are going anywhere.

Hang on, what about this post makes you feel he is scum? A quotation of where about in the post might help.
To me this post is clearly well written and shows out Guardian's (to me) clear scum tell then if you are saying it seems scummish to you is that because he FoS's someone as scum who quite clearly deserves it?

<arguments against the case on Guardian>

In conclusion, the post smells scummy, and I play by sense of smell too.

Trying to save Guardian much? I can't remember who it was that gave hasfardas (sorry i couldnt remember your name) a hard time for doing this in the first few pages but you have just done the exact same which adding to the case in my last post brings about quite a scummy feel about you.

Mr Stoofer: were you defending Guardian here because you thought he was a cop?

Btw, I would like to see a claim from Mr Stoofer as well.

[lord_hur]

Why do you think Guardian and Stoofer can't both be scum?

See beginning of 1037.

[Lawrencelot]

Why do you think Guardian and Stoofer can't both be scum?

See beginning of 1037.

Oh that. The bussing makes perfect sense (well not perfect but it makes more sense than Guardian's play). This is how I see it: Guardian pretended to be a cop, and Stoofer followed with that plan. For some reason, Guardian began to play very poorly, but Stoofer kept defending him (that's the part you think would be normal, since it's the opposite of bussing). Guardian eventually claimed miller, and Stoofer couldn't do anything different anymore than being angry and vote for him.

Even using this theory of yours (which I don't think is true), "scum usually don't bus D1", I think you should be able to see that Stoofer is Guardian's most likely buddy. He defended him while Guardian was doing nothing but posting bullshit, acting like a Jester, and apologizing for bad play. He only started bussing after the miller claim. The only other option for Guardian's buddy I saw when reading D1 was SingingLibrarian (read page 10 for that), but he's dead town.

[Mr Stoofer]

If we are in LyLo, then there is a great deal to be said for a massclaim now.

How do you reconcile this with your current reluctance for claiming? The question is twofold :

- If you think we are in LyLo, why don't you advise a massclaim now? What has changed ?

- If you suggested a massclaim back then, I assumed it was because you thought that revealing your own role would not hurt town that much. But your current play strongly suggests that you do mind revealing it, and that it is such an important one that it should not be disclosed, even in LyLo. I am not asking (at least as of now) what your role is, but as you were asking what elements I have against you, this inconsistence is one of them.

I realise now that we are probably are in LyLo, in which case I would be in favour of a massclaim; because I think that avoiding a mislynch is more important now than keeping power roles hidden. This is not "inconsistency" - I had got my maths wrong and hadn't realised we were in LyLo.

I am not in favour of a Stoofer-only claim. If we are going to do this at all, I think we should do a proper massclaim (I don't mind going first). Having the roles dribble out by individual claims helps the Scum to formulate their fake claims. One big mass claim makes that much harder.

Since then, I've gone through all of your posts and you have done absolutely no scum hunting. Instead, I've seen a lot of theorising and misdirection. I don't know how you can think you've been pro-town, when all you've been doing is making a lot of noise. How about you actually tell us who you think is scum now. I'm still waiting on the results of your reread from back then...

This is unfair: I have been the (almost sole) target of attack since then and so I have naturally concentrated on defending myself. Would you have rather I had ignored the questions asked of me?

I think stark is Scum - his anti-Stoofer posts don't make sense. I think he is going all out for one last lynch to win the game. And naturally he has chosen the living player who has been the most vocal in the game and had the most suspicion put against him (i.e. me).

Right, Stoofer says VoD was town, yet he went after him for at least 10 pages. Do you admit you were wrong about him on Day 1 Mr Stoofer?

Certainly. I said early on Day 2 that I thought VoD was town - that was effectively an admission of error. Remember, for most of Day 1, I thought Guardian was the Cop. Once we discovered that Guardian was lying Scum, I went back and did a re-read and concluded that VoD was town on the basis of his interactions with Guardian.

Mr Stoofer: were you defending Guardian here because you thought he was a cop?

Yes, of course.

[stark]

Acceptable Order?:

Mr. Stoofer
hasdgfas
stark
HH
Lawence

[HackerHuck]

I'm not sure that a massclaim will be all that helpful. However, if we go down that path, we need to decide what must be disclosed before hand so there's no stalling.

[lord_hur]

Name, role (description if non-standard), food looks ok to me.

Unless anyone has an objection concerning food.

For claim order, I would go like this :

stark
HackerHuck
hasdgfas
Lawrencelot
Mr. Stoofer

[Lawrencelot]

Why the heck would you put Stoofer last? He's the one we'll be lynching, so his claim should make the difference between lynching him or not. If his claim is not too scummy, we'll go with the next one. I think stark's order is fine, though I don't mind claiming sooner.

We could also just lynch Stoofer. Or let only him claim. I'm more than 95% sure he's scum. Everything that happened D1 points at it. I just don't know how to convince lord_hur. But I'll try again.

Lord_hur, believe me or not, but reading D1 I really had the feeling tVoD was town. Stoofer kept going after him, which reminds me a lot of my own play as scum IC in some newbie game. I can link you to it if you want. tVoD was, although it was clear to me that he was town, a good target for attacks, because there were townies going after him too. Stoofer went after him as well, and his attacks were one of the strongest. He backs off when it was clear that he was town; just like I did in that game where I was scum.

Stoofer believed Guardian was a cop. Admitted, the tells were kind of obvious, but there were no other players who assumed Guardian was a cop like Stoofer did. The best argument that Stoofer and Guardian talked about it, is page 10. Even after a good case by Slysly on Guardian, and the scummiest defense you can imagine by Guardian, Stoofer defends Guardian by calling Slysly's post scummy. Also note that Stoofer's play actually convinced some townies (SingingLibrarian acted as if Guardian was playing bad, but as town), although it didn't matter as Guardian claimed miller. Believing someone's a cop is fine, but if he acts 1000 times scummier than the one he's supposed to have a guilty on, that should at least cast some doubt.

One thing that struck me odd, but this argument isn't as good, is Stoofer's vote after Guardian claimed miller. IIRC, Stoofer only said "Vote: Guardian", while all the others were in chaos and confusion. Stoofer's reaction after Guardian claimed miller (before Stoofer voted him) also looks kind of... planned, or fake, or something.

Clouding Guardian's alignment also makes sense if Stoofer is scum. But admittedly, it also makes sense if someone else wants to frame Stoofer. It mainly casts confusion on Stoofer's alignment.

Stoofer: claim plz

[lord_hur]

Lord_hur, believe me or not, but reading D1 I really had the feeling tVoD was town. Stoofer kept going after him, which reminds me a lot of my own play as scum IC in some newbie game. I can link you to it if you want. tVoD was, although it was clear to me that he was town, a good target for attacks, because there were townies going after him too. Stoofer went after him as well, and his attacks were one of the strongest. He backs off when it was clear that he was town; just like I did in that game where I was scum.

Oh I believe you. I never really had any doubt about TVoD's alignment either.

Stoofer believed Guardian was a cop. Admitted, the tells were kind of obvious, but there were no other players who assumed Guardian was a cop like Stoofer did. The best argument that Stoofer and Guardian talked about it, is page 10. Even after a good case by Slysly on Guardian, and the scummiest defense you can imagine by Guardian, Stoofer defends Guardian by calling Slysly's post scummy. Also note that Stoofer's play actually convinced some townies (SingingLibrarian acted as if Guardian was playing bad, but as town), although it didn't matter as Guardian claimed miller. Believing someone's a cop is fine, but if he acts 1000 times scummier than the one he's supposed to have a guilty on, that should at least cast some doubt.

Hmm good point.

And yes, Mr Stoofer should go first (I wanted to try something, but it's silly).

[stark]

Funny lh.

I think in my mind that lawrencelot and HH are interchangeble.

If anyone has any objections to the order, I would be happy to hear them, and we reach a diplomatic solution.

Also, LH, what were you trying to do with alternative bizzaro list?

[HackerHuck]

OK folks, let's get down to business. I'm going to be on V/LA in about four days and I'd like to see this day wrap up before then. For the record, I'm obviously not opposed to a Mr Stoofer lynch, but I also wouldn't oppose a lynch of Stark. I'm on the fence with hasdfgs, so I don't think I'd bag off on that one either. Everyone else, I'm absolutely opposed to lynching today.

[undo]

Not voting:

hasdgfas, lord_hur

With 6 alive, it's

4 to lynch

.

Tentative deadline: August 20 at 12 AM (noon) GMT

[stark]

Now we just have to wait for Stoofer to think up an interesting claim..

[Mr Stoofer]

Have we all agreed that we are doing a massclaim?

And if so, are we going to use the normal order (with me first)?

[stark]

Yes

[lord_hur]

Have we all agreed that we are doing a massclaim?

And if so, are we going to use the normal order (with me first)?

Yes to both questions.

[Lawrencelot]

Yes

[hasdgfas]

sounds good

[HackerHuck]

hasdfgas - who do you think is scum? Please answer before the the claims begin - if you read this before your turn.

[Mr Stoofer]

OK, I'll go as soon as hasdgfas answers the above.

For the avoidance of doubt, "Normal order" means each claimer chooses the next person to claim.