Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[Erg0]

That was a pretty awesome night last night -- the Godfather is dead, and it appears that the mafia kill failed too.

Please tell me that I didn't just see the "reverse congratulating the doc" tell.

[Erg0]

@Erg0: You said in Vollkan's game played with Oman a lot and know his style. Can shed some light on this?

It's been a little while now, but I used to be able to pick his alignment fairly reliably based on how much he buddied up to me and whether I got NKed early. I hit a purple patch in BM's Mystery Mafia and a newbie game where I knew he was scum based purely on meta. Unfortunately, I got it wrong in vollkan's game and have probably not played with him enough lately to be able to read him as reliably as I could then.

I will say that he hasn't committed any of the tells that I used to use against him. I'm not relying on meta very much in this game, though.

[Oman]

That was a pretty awesome night last night -- the Godfather is dead, and it appears that the mafia kill failed too.

Please tell me that I didn't just see the "reverse congratulating the doc" tell.

Does it work that way?

[Erg0]

It does if I say it does.

Actually, I got that the wrong way round - it was more like the normal "congratulating the doc" tell. The reverse variation looks more like this (yes, he was scum).

[Oman]

Interesting meta....btw: where did the Jitsu wagon go?

[Erg0]

I suspect that shaft.ed's alignment has cast their quarrel in a different light. I'm still looking into things there.

[The Fonz]

^-^

This. Basically, Jitsu's 'maybe he didn't know he was hammering' thing, and shaft.ed's 'slip' thing, looked like genuine, bad-faith scummy attempts to get one another lynched based on crappy cases.

[Oman]

Hmmm...I'd still like someof the Jitsu wagon to disucss it.

[Erg0]

Initially I just thought that Jitsu was a little "off" compared to what I'd seen from him previously - this was why I mentioned him at the start of day 2. What got me onto his wagon was his argument with shaft.ed - it looked to me like he was ignoring a perfectly good case (shaft.ed's Fonz vote near deadline) to pursue him over a spurious issue (the preview/submit thing). Between the two, I thought that there was a decent chance of him being scum whether I was right or wrong about shaft.ed.

Basically, Jitsu's 'maybe he didn't know he was hammering' thing, and shaft.ed's 'slip' thing, looked like genuine, bad-faith scummy attempts to get one another lynched based on crappy cases.

Interesting - what's your alternative explanation for Jitsu's case against shaft.ed?

[Kison]

The Jitsu VS Shafted interaction is definitely weird... Shafted did bring up the slip thing on Jitsu, but he dropped it without much of a fight. Although, he didn't get much support(actually, if anything, he was being badgered by Simenon for it), so I don't think it's very significant because I could see him dropping what appears to be a crap argument on Town as well out of fear of the consequences of going for it too hard. I think the slip drama was more a point against Shafted, who is kind of dead at the moment.

In my opinion, the more telling are Jitsu's attacks against Shafted, which still do not make sense to me. I don't think the fact that Shafted is scum makes his argument any better - Jitsu was blatantly reaching on his attacks. 'Why would xxx bus their godfather yadda yadda?' : because that's the art of bussing. I would not write off the possibility. What should be looked for is whether or not an attack is genuine.

And that leads into the whole Oman VS Shafted thing, which I believe The Fonz made a good point about. Sadly, I haven't gotten around to doing my own homework on it just yet, so I would like to refrain from passing judgement until I do. Feel free to hold me to following up on it, though.

[Guardian]

Vote Count 28

Oman[1] (The Fonz)

Not Voting[6] (cicero, Oman, Jitsu, BillyTwilight, Kison, Erg0)

[The Fonz]

Basically, Jitsu's 'maybe he didn't know he was hammering' thing, and shaft.ed's 'slip' thing, looked like genuine, bad-faith scummy attempts to get one another lynched based on crappy cases.

Interesting - what's your alternative explanation for Jitsu's case against shaft.ed?

Eh? I don't need one? The theory above implies that one was scum, but not both. I tend to find, and this is another that's fairly constant, scum do not actually try to get one another lynched with shitty cases. They either make shitty cases that don't succeed in putting the buddy anywhere near the firing line, or make decent cases that put their buddies in danger.

Since shaft.ed's attacks were part of a pattern amongst several players that put Jitsu in real danger, i surmise that Jitsu is not his scumbuddy.

[Jitsu]

What got me onto his wagon was his argument with shaft.ed - it looked to me like he was ignoring a perfectly good case (shaft.ed's Fonz vote near deadline) to pursue him over a spurious issue (the preview/submit thing).

Umm, I did mention the "perfectly good case" you cited in posts 657 and 695. I pressed him for some answers on exactly those points.

Please tell me that I didn't just see the "reverse congratulating the doc" tell.

What are you talking about? I didn't congratulate anyone, and I specifically did not mention a doc. I was happy because there was a dramatic turnaround last night that may have revived our chances of winning this game after a horrendous D1/N1. What's wrong with that?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I did a reread focused on Shaft.ed.

Shaft.ed and Billy have hardly said anything to each other all game. I actually like some of Billy's latest points on Kison/Shanba, and after reread, I tend to agree with him on the Fonz. However, I wonder a bit why Billy is singling out Cicero for subscribing to the "one in three" theory. Sure, Cicero mentioned it initially, but Fonz and Oman have expressed agreement with it also. I agree that part of Cicero's argument was somewhat weak, but it's not like Cicero's other main points on Oman are bad.

Shaft.ed didn't seem to attack Cicero much. He seemed to come to the conclusion that Cicero was town starting around the middle of D1 and didn't really deviate from that later on. His case on Oman has merit. I'm not sure what else to say about him, as he isn't bothering me much still.

Shaft.ed didn't say a lot to Erg0 either. There was a bit more activity in the other direction. Erg0 did press Shaft.ed about his "Oman's wagon shifting to Cicero" early and probed about his Fonzvote late D2. Erg0's reason for voting Shaft.ed on D2 was a bit vague. I'm not exactly sure what questions Erg0 asked of Shaft.ed that Shaft.ed didn't reply to, and I wonder a bit why Erg0 simply didn't restate them and demand an answer from him, rather than just vote. But still, I can't see much in the way of a tell from him.

Shaft.ed interacted a lot with the Fonz, but a lot of it was to try to counter Fonz's assertions against him. Rereading Fonz knowing that Shaft.ed was the godfather, Fonz' cases on him overall, looked pretty legit. Fonz's criticism was harsh, and Fonz did not waver on Shaft.ed for a very long time, until late D2. Plus, Shaft.ed's response to Fonz looked a lot like OMGUS, trying to discredit the Fonz directly instead of debate his case, and pointing out that other people acted the same way. If Fonz was bussing, I don't know why that Fonz would have turned on Shafted near the end of the day and make himself look vulnerable just to try to save a GF at a time like that. Fonz was on Shaft.ed's ass all game, and suddenly at the end of the day tries to save his GF? After a reread I don't quite buy the theory that Fonz acted in desperation to save his GF. I still wonder a bit why Fonz put his vote on Vollkan, and not me or Billy (who were in his top 3 earlier), but I'm still leaning town on the Fonz, and I believe his case on Oman has merit.

Shaft.ed did ask for prods on Shanba, but he did that for several other players also. I do believe though, that Shanba was the only player Shaft.ed specifically wanted to be replaced. It's a weak case, but Billy might have a point. If Shanba were lurker-scum, Shaft.ed would have a keen interest in getting him replaced, with a clean slate. If Shanba really were town, one would think that Shaft.ed would have wanted to keep him around as a possible lurker lynch. To be fair though, Shanba was looking destined for replacement anyway. Kison's criticism of Shaft.ed was more vocal near the end of D2, but Shaft.ed did not seem to be interested in returning fire. In Kison's 875, he FoS's Fonz for the vote drop on Shaft.ed, but then in 882, he specifically says that he was not bothered by the swap (1st sentence). That's somewhat of a contradiction, even if I do share some of Kison's concern in the 3rd sentence (not agreeing with the magnitude of townieness Fonz attributed to what Shaft.ed did).

Shaft.ed's behavior toward Oman seems to be the most puzzling to me. Shaft.ed seems to be after Oman early, with that comment about Oman's wagon quietly moving to Cicero, and I still don't like the explanation that it was a joke. I'm a bit bothers how in 131 and 132, Shaft.ed and Oman seem to agree that it was a joke. Shaft.ed was convinced that Oman knew it was a joke? Really? In 238, Oman says that Shaft.ed is bothering him more than Vollkan. Shaft.ed basically votes Oman in 405 for his laziness, and Oman doesn't seem to react right away. In fact, Oman's comment in 413 that Shaft.ed reacted well to the bullshit thrown on him seems odd, given the circumstances. He even felt the need to clarify it later on. In 514, Shaft.ed lambastes him again, and Oman finally starts to turn a bit in 562. He defends Shaft.ed a bit a first, but then sides with Fonz on some of his arguments. I agree that Shaft.ed did seem to criticise Oman without following up on it. I'm actually kind of surprised that Oman has not really responded to Shaft.ed much at all, when Shaft.ed seemed to be after him quite a bit from the beginning. I still admit that I really can't see Oman's case on Cicero. If there is something else to it, I'd still like to hear it.

The net result of my opinions after my focused reread of Shaft.ed and the last page or two of posts is that my suspicion of Billy and Fonz have dropped a bit, Oman and Kison have gone up a bit, and Erg0 and Cicero remain relatively unchanged. That puts Oman in the scumlead, Fonz and Cicero are at the back of the pack, and the others, Billy, Erg0, and Kison in the middle.

Since I have a favorite at this point, I will go ahead and

Vote: Oman

[The Fonz]

Please tell me that I didn't just see the "reverse congratulating the doc" tell.

What are you talking about? I didn't congratulate anyone, and I specifically did not mention a doc. I was happy because there was a dramatic turnaround last night that may have revived our chances of winning this game after a horrendous D1/N1. What's wrong with that?

Basically, stating how happy you are at night actions benefitting the town can be a scumtell. The idea is that you're trying too hard to make it look like you're part of the town. The reverse also happens, moaning about how bad night actions were. So things like:

No NK last night...great job, doc!
Wow, didn't that work out well for us!
Fantastic, a scum died!
Aw crap, two power roles dead, that sucks.

Personally, I think it's a pile of crap, and any validity it might have only applies, I think, to new players to the site who are unaware of the JEEP tells.

[Erg0]

Basically, Jitsu's 'maybe he didn't know he was hammering' thing, and shaft.ed's 'slip' thing, looked like genuine, bad-faith scummy attempts to get one another lynched based on crappy cases.

Interesting - what's your alternative explanation for Jitsu's case against shaft.ed?

Eh? I don't need one? The theory above implies that one was scum, but not both. I tend to find, and this is another that's fairly constant, scum do not actually try to get one another lynched with shitty cases. They either make shitty cases that don't succeed in putting the buddy anywhere near the firing line, or make decent cases that put their buddies in danger.

Since shaft.ed's attacks were part of a pattern amongst several players that put Jitsu in real danger, i surmise that Jitsu is not his scumbuddy.

What I mean is, do you think Jitsu was just misguided town? Presumably the perceived crappiness of his case doesn't disappear just because shaft.ed turned out to be scum.

Re the commenting on night actions thing: I don't believe it's a foolproof scumtell, but it's correct a surprising amount of the time. Like Fonz said, it mainly applies to relative newbies, but you'll usually find that people who know the JEEP tells will avoid doing it in the first place.

I'm going to avoid reading Jitsu's shaft.ed PbP until I've finished mine. I'm about halfway through, and it's sapping my will to live.

[The Fonz]

Personally, I make a point of occasionally congratulating the doc as town.

And, yes, Jitsu's 'may not have known' point was crappy. But townies do make crappy cases sometimes, for whatever reason.

[cicero]

However, I wonder a bit why Billy is singling out Cicero for subscribing to the "one in three" theory. Sure, Cicero mentioned it initially,

Just a point of clarification. Where did people get the idea that the one in three point was mine originally? It was Fonz's. I agreed that it was a good point.

[Kison]

In Kison's 875, he FoS's Fonz for the vote drop on Shaft.ed, but then in 882, he specifically says that he was not bothered by the swap (1st sentence). That's somewhat of a contradiction, even if I do share some of Kison's concern in the 3rd sentence (not agreeing with the magnitude of townieness Fonz attributed to what Shaft.ed did).

I was not attacking the fact he moved his vote, I was attacking the sudden relief of suspicion he had of Shafted after such a long time of going after him. It just happened that he moved his vote in the process. Anyways, I'm hardly sold on Fonz being scum. It's perhaps the only thing I can see that holds any weight against him that I can think of. His Shafted case was good, but I don't underestimate Fonz's bussing capabilities by any means after having had a bussing skirmish with him for the entirety of another game.

[Erg0]

However, I wonder a bit why Billy is singling out Cicero for subscribing to the "one in three" theory. Sure, Cicero mentioned it initially,

Just a point of clarification. Where did people get the idea that the one in three point was mine originally? It was Fonz's. I agreed that it was a good point.

Do you do one in three when you're scum?

[cicero]

Do you do one in three when you're scum?

Well, I *have* done it. I wouldn't say I always would. I've only been scum a handful of times. It depends on how the game was going though I think. I would want to shield my scumbuddy in case I died. At the same time, I'd mostly want to just look like an honest townie so it would more depend on the flow of the game.

[Oman]

Do you do one in three when you're scum?

Well, I *have* done it. I wouldn't say I always would. I've only been scum a handful of times. It depends on how the game was going though I think. I would want to shield my scumbuddy in case I died. At the same time, I'd mostly want to just look like an honest townie so it would more depend on the flow of the game.

I do it as scum sometimes but not others. In my last scum game I said my scumbuddy was the only one I thought was town through it all. The town were smart enough to forget the WIFOM and move on....hint.

[cicero]

The town were smart enough to forget the WIFOM and move on....hint.

I wouldn't press the case based on that alone, Oman. After Vollkan I'm in no rush for another mislynch.

I have a deep suspicion against someone that I can only explain as "gut" and one rather unreliable scumtell.

Who is your hunch about based on what rather unreliable scumtell?

[Oman]

Kison.

[cicero]

Kison.

Kison is a very good person to be suspecting in my opinion. But *why*? And if so why aren't you pressing him?

[Guardian]

filler post.