Mature Mafia: Game Over

[Talitha]

Adel: re the relationship you see between nonny and I... we stayed together at jeep's place for a week. I don't know if that would account for what you think you see.

[Adel]

I have the feeling that we've entered the "buss your partners" phase of the game for scum.

[Talitha]

It was Adel & armlx... Not very helpful seeing as my gut tells me that Adel was sincere with her suspicion on me, and that armlx was sincere with his suspicion on nonny.

And I retract my offer to lynch Werebear, for now. I want to lynch logicticus and only logicticus. Or maybe Axelrod.

[Adel]

And I retract my offer to lynch Werebear, for now. I want to lynch logicticus and only logicticus. Or maybe Axelrod.

I have the feeling that we've entered the "buss your partners" phase of the game for scum.

unvote, vote: Talitha

[Talitha]

What gives you that feeling, Adel?

[Talitha]

Please note, Adel added a vote there, with no "EDIT". Bad form.

[Adel]

Please note, Adel added a vote there, with no "EDIT". Bad form.

Please note that I added a second post very similar to the first. No editing was performed. False accusation = bad form.

[Talitha]

If I'm bussing a partner... why not help me do it? Instead you vote for me?
Are you scum Adel?

[Talitha]

Ah, I'm sorry for the mistake.

[Adel]

What gives you that feeling, Adel?

your behavior. I think logic is the mislynch you intended to push through for today, but you are willing to settle upon one of your scum partners (Axel? Werebear?) to bus.

[Talitha]

Wait, am I bussing here or mislynching?

[Adel]

Wait, am I bussing here or mislynching?

I can't tell, not really. I think we should lynch you today just to be safe. We can worry which person (logic, Werebear, Axel) you were trying to bus and which you were trying to mislynch tomorrow.

[Talitha]

Heh. If I get lynched today, it could easily be deja vu from yesterday. Townie goes to the gallows screaming that logic and Axel are scum.

I will lynch any of logic, Axel, or......maybe Adel. I can't quite work out if she genuinely thinks I'm scum, or if she's protecting logic & Axel. After our most recent exchange I'm starting to think it's the latter.

[Talitha]

(PS. Bussing would very really bad play in this situation Adel, and I'm sure you know it.)

[Adel]

meh, I didn't get want I wanted out of that exchange.

I was hoping for a huge scumtell, but I don't see it.

unvote, vote:Nonny

still the best case from my perspective.

[armlx]

I'm so confused.....

[nonny]

Adel, you have like ADD.

Preforming my re-read today/tomorrow at work, but I have one smaller game I need to do first. Will have my full write-up at the latest tomorrow at 6pm arizona time(don't know that whole -n GMT thingy)

[Axelrod]

I was just going over some recent posts to try and remind myself why I am suspicious of Werebear, when I saw a post by Axelrod that made hairs rise on the back of my neck. Post 1030, he says he is may be willing to eliminate those with those with no mod powers, if nothing better presents itself.

To start with, I find the at-least-one-of-the-vanillas-must-be-scum position a bad one. I thought more people would agree with me that decent mods assign things like that randomly just to avoid/foil this kind of setup-based reasoning.

I don't like how Axelrod uses the "if nothing better presents itself" line. I feel like he knows it's not a good option for the town. My feeling is backed up later in his post when he details how there's 8 of us left and likely 3 scum, etc. It's freaking obvious that we have, at most, one mis-lynch left. If both DGB & Adel are town (and I see that as somewhat possible), then lynching one, then the other if the first is town, is a definite loss. If could also easily be game over after lynching one of them. It's lazy, lazy, lazy. (Edit: Which I really don't expect from a good pro-town player at this stage of a game with NO scum down).

Now that I'm talking myself around to the idea that Axel is scum, I am going to go back and see who jumped when I talked about Glork's suspicion on logicticus. (Edit: "jumped" because I neglected to mention Axelrod... I think it was Adel and someone else).

"If nothing better presents itself" is meant to be taken at face value. To this point, there are precisely zero what I would call "strong" leads. I think that's fairly evident by the way everyone is just going round and round and round right now.

There may be good cases to be made from posts in the thread, all the way back to day 1, provided someone takes the time to read back and actually make them. I plead guilty to not have done this in quite a while myself. I don't see anyone else doing it either. This means everyone is just voting based on "gut" and on what was the most recent thing someone said that you didn't like.

That's not a good way to win games. We are doing terribly, and are likely to continue unless someone comes up with something better. Lynching someone based on a statistical argument that more likely than not one scum would have no Mod. powers (even if you are assuming a random distribution) is better than

nothing

.

So someone needs to make a better case. This could be me too. Frankly, if I can get the energy up, I will make the effort. But that's not happening right now.

[armlx]

Lynching someone based on a statistical argument that more likely than not one scum would have no Mod. powers (even if you are assuming a random distribution) is better than nothing.

But is it better then scum hunting is what you have to prove though.

[Talitha]

Axel, admittedly no-one has claimed scum (or the equivalent) yet, thus I agree there are no extremely strong leads.

But your un-enthusiasm for trying to find scum, in a very possible lynch-wrong-lose situation, is pretty damning, IMO.

You mention going back to day 1 to make a case against someone, but it's been my experience that players' true colours start to really show once they get close to winning (or losing). Your un-worried behaviour (wanting to sit back and do the statistical lynch thing... because it's "better than nothing") makes me think you're closer to winning than to losing.

[nonny]

Axel, admittedly no-one has claimed scum (or the equivalent) yet

That is a joke right? I hope no one was looking for a scum claim...

Still re-reading....it's gonna be a long long long double or triple post when I'm done. i was going to edit it for size but don't really want to leave anything out.

[Axelrod]

Axel, admittedly no-one has claimed scum (or the equivalent) yet, thus I agree there are no extremely strong leads.

But your un-enthusiasm for trying to find scum, in a very possible lynch-wrong-lose situation, is pretty damning, IMO.

You mention going back to day 1 to make a case against someone, but it's been my experience that players' true colours start to really show once they get close to winning (or losing). Your un-worried behaviour (wanting to sit back and do the statistical lynch thing... because it's "better than nothing") makes me think you're closer to winning than to losing.

I will put my own efforts at finding scum in this game up against anyone's (which is not to say I've been any more successful thatn anyone - but I have made the effort). If I am experiencing a lack of enthusiasm now, then it is caused largely by so many other people completely phoning it in. I'm not sure I've ever felt like I had so little to go on this deep in a game before.

This is where I am:

1) DrippingGoofball
2) Armlx
3) Talitha
6) logicticus
10) Werebear
11) Nonny
12) Adel
14) Axelrod

There are 3 scum in there, I believe. Not me (duh) so out I go.

1) DrippingGoofball
2) Armlx
3) Talitha
6) logicticus
10) Werebear
11) Nonny
12) Adel

I have felt for most of the game that logicticus was at least trying. That might change after a review, but he's nowhere near the top of the list. I would say that Talitha is next least person of interest.

1) DrippingGoofball
2) Armlx
10) Werebear
11) Nonny
12) Adel

Adel and Nonny are at least making the appearance of giving an effort. Frankly, one of them is probably scum, because I doubt

all

the scum are just lurking their way to victory, but I wouldn't pick either of them first either at this point.

1) DrippingGoofball
2) Armlx
10) Werebear

So. I think I could go for anyone here. But I don't want to vote until I at least do some kind of token review of each of their posts. It probably goes: Armlx -> Werebear -> DGB. With the understanding that one of them is probably town and at least one of Adel/Nonny is scum.

[Adel]

I have felt for most of the game that logicticus was at least trying. That might change after a review, but he's nowhere near the top of the list.

I would say that Talitha is next least person of interest.

why are you so willing to discard Tally as a suspect?

[Werebear]

Werebear is having connection difficulty. For some reason, Friday, it wouldn't accept my password, so I reset it twice, and still it wouldn't work. And I hop on here from home, going to try again, and it autoconnects. Work is where I mostly log on, any advice?

I don't understand what the flap is about players with no mod powers. Yesterday, the only theory I had to go on, was that possibly players with no mod powers were scum. It was a little shaky, but theoretically possible. Then, at the lynch, Glork posted VERY CLEARLY a screenshot of his role PM. It left no doubt whatsoever that there were townies with no mod powers. So thanks to Glork, I am no longer disillusioned that no mod powers could equal scum, and fail to comprehend how anyone can follow that reasoning at this point. Mind you, it doesn't CLEAR the players without mod powers....

So, I can agree with Talitha on Axelrod... after yesterday, taking the tactic of lynching non-roles shouldn't be on anyone's list. Gut instinct is better than following a pattern that has been disproven. I'm not sure what to make of nonny, she seems to have posted only a few more times than I have. If Tally is scum, she's going to win by sheer post volume, but she's still not ringing bells for me as scum. I'm not too fond of Adel's "buss your partners" post, since right now there's enough confusion that both scum could take different tacks, and not throw suspicion on each other. DG seems to be reduced to inflammatory pot-shots, armlx, I don't even know anything about him, and logiticus seems to want to lynch anyone that's not him.
As to me, there is no real case to lynch me, (well, no more than anyone else), but unfortunately that's mostly because I've been extremely sparse in my posting.

There, two pages without a post, and now you get it all. Anyone who has any ideas on the password thing, private message me.

[Werebear]

oh yeah! I'd bet on there being 2 scum. One is too few, a lucky town could get rid of them day 1, and three... three scum in a 14-player no-cops game is weighted VERY MUCH towards the scum. I mean, here we are, day 3, and we're down to 8 people. 3/8 being scum is an almost insurmountable voting block.

I like Occam's razor. It's not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but it's right quite often. (for those who don't know it, it states "The simplest/most logical answer is most often the correct one")

I think night 2, there's only two possible cases.

Case one, two scum accidentally(?) messaged a different player saying "you're dead", and since there's no mod, it went through. Considering we're running this ourselves, mistakes could easily be made.

Case two, vigilante. The setup for killing at night exists, there's nothing to say the mod couldn't make a town killer who could message the same way. HOWEVER, when balancing a game, I don't really count a vigilante as helping the town greatly. Somewhat, but not greatly. The only time they're truly valuable is if there's a lot of information out there, for instance, a sane cop coming out and clearing half the players. Anything other than that, it's just one person acting on their feelings, which often as not doesn't pan out. Like this game's example, if indeed there is one. If that was indeed a vigilante, they made an error that cost the town.

And yes, today is possibly lynch or lose, if the mod saw fit to include 3 scum and no vigi.