Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[Kison]

FoS : The Fonz

for the shaft.ed vote drop.

Everyone should go back and look over the game knowing Shafted was scum and post back. Going to read his posts in isolation, so coffee time.

[The Fonz]

What, for hounding him incessantly whilst no-one was listening, and then moving off him when he did something I thought was a big town-tell? Mea culpa.

(Incidentally, i TOLD YOU he was shooting for the middle. Looked exactly like Qman in election day).

Also, grow a pair and use your vote why don't you.

[The Fonz]

Anyway my scum list would be: Oman, CKD and the Fonz.

Also,

vote: Oman

One out of three is another surprisingly reliable indicator.

attempt to out a power role at the very least with a fake claim.

I'm not really sure where to go here, but I still find CKD more likely scum than town, and would help lynch him at deadline. I need to read Fonz again considering I missed the VLA, but I'm not seeing much support for his lynch. I don't like Oman, but it's obvious he's not going to be possible today.

Note shaft.ed's Oman related behaviour D2: Votes him, but makes absolutely no effort to convince anyone to join him. Re-read shaft.ed day two. He says 'I'm not happy with Oman's play' quite a few times. Does not really make anything resembling a credible attempt to get him lynched.

Following up with that, is the Fonz still your top suspect? If you really think he's that scummy, why don't you summarize your case against him and cite your evidence. Cicero already asked Fonz to summarize his case on you, so I'd like to hear your side.

He's still at the top of my list. The case is pretty much the same. Constant pushing of a very weak case against me. Painting my actions as scummy when they are common to many players in the game. Lurking, in and out of plain site. Tunneling on me while seemingly ignoring the rest of the players in the game. I'll try getting up a more detailed analysis later, but he doesn't have a lot to work with.

This should ring alarm bells. He's voting Oman at this point, but apparently, I'm his top suspect, and he's dedicating most of his time to attacking me.

OTOH, I think this makes Jitsu and Erg0 likely town. Don't think either one's interactions look like bussing.

(Also, note shaft.ed's attempt to 'lurker' lynch me With help from...)

By the same logic, I'd put Cicero down as the third scum.

[Kison]

What, for hounding him incessantly whilst no-one was listening, and then moving off him when he did something I thought was a big town-tell? Mea culpa.

It's more the fact you spent the majority of the game going after him and seemingly dropped the entire thing based on his meta-research of you, alone. Seeing Shaft.ed flip scum godfather makes that look like an opportunity to get out of a bus.

Also, grow a pair and use your vote why don't you.

I might, if I find nothing better from rereading. Till then, leave me alone, Biff.

[cicero]

With only four to lynch, it would be FAR better for us to stick to FOS's in the early stage of the day. Please and thank you. No one should "grow a pair and vote why don't you" and that's why.

[The Fonz]

What, for hounding him incessantly whilst no-one was listening, and then moving off him when he did something I thought was a big town-tell? Mea culpa.

It's more the fact you spent the majority of the game going after him and seemingly dropped the entire thing based on his meta-research of you, alone. Seeing Shaft.ed flip scum godfather makes that look like an opportunity to get out of a bus.

What do you mean 'it's more the fact...'?

What you're saying is the exact same thing i said. Namely, i spent the whole game going after him and dropped it all because of his meta research, which I thought was a big town tell. Scum just don't, generally, put several hours of meta research into finding out someone's alignment, because they already know it.

Plus Cicero drawing our attention to lurkers- and you know where i stand on lurkers, particularly when it's vollkan who is always the arch-opponent of lurker lynches. Getting a lurker lynch on him was sooo tempting. Plus the shaft.ed wagon had completely stalled. It had had me and ergo, and, like, that's it, forever. Spending all that time and effort, and getting no traction whatsoever, makes you doubt yourself. (I have a habit of being wrong whenever there's a question of go with my gut or not lately. Try to suppress natural suspicion of farside, she wins the game for scum. 'Learn' from that mistake, and I vote her in endgame, she's town. Pursue scummy-looking newbies, they're town. Give them some leeway due to their inexperience, they're scum).

@cicero: No no no. FOS = Friend of Scum. We're not at lylo, and there's no reason for a townie not to use his vote. Do you really think scum are going to quicklynch?[/area]

[cicero]

Fonz - what JUST happened to you in my mini game? We have three weeks. I'm not saying never vote. But I will be *pissed* if we quicklynch someone like cubsfan did in my game.

By the way, that having been said, your Oman point makes a lot of sense.

I really don't think Fonz was bussing Shaft.ed the whole day. Why would someone actively bus their godfather? He's a powerful asset. And Fonz's reason for getting off shaft.ed makes sense too. *I* should be more suspicious than Fonz from yesterday. I helped to move the damn wagon off Shaft.ed and on to Vollkan. Not that Vollkan was engaged enough to help himself... but still.

[Kison]

Plus Cicero drawing our attention to lurkers- and you know where i stand on lurkers, particularly when it's vollkan who is always the arch-opponent of lurker lynches. Getting a lurker lynch on him was sooo tempting. Plus the shaft.ed wagon had completely stalled. It had had me and ergo, and, like, that's it, forever. Spending all that time and effort, and getting no traction whatsoever, makes you doubt yourself. (I have a habit of being wrong whenever there's a question of go with my gut or not lately. Try to suppress natural suspicion of farside, she wins the game for scum. 'Learn' from that mistake, and I vote her in endgame, she's town. Pursue scummy-looking newbies, they're town. Give them some leeway due to their inexperience, they're scum).

I am not bothered by your vote swap. I'd have done the same thing in your shoes, as your vote would have been dead weight sitting on him. I just don't agree with the magnitude of townieness you're attributing to what Shaft.ed did.

[Oman]

I have a deep suspicion against someone that I can only explain as "gut" and one rather unreliable scumtell.

There is also The Fonz, who is giving me bad vibes for some reason. I don't know but he feels like he's had this set up for a while, or at least been looking at it, and just JUMPED at the oppertunity when his godfather went down.

None of this is reliable. I need to re-read.

[Erg0]

A skim of shaft.ed's posts hasn't turned up anything obvious - he spent a lot of time talking about and to dead players, unfortunately. I'll do the usual notes and work through it methodically over the next few days.

I'm not sure if it's significant that most of ckd's wagon has been killed off now. I guess the question is whether there was more than one scum on there - if we think it's a two scum wagon then there are only a couple of candidates left for the role of second scum.

I need to think about Fonz's unvote a little more, but despite my annoyance with his jump yesterday I don't think that the wagon had a lot of legs at the point when he left it. For some reason I keep thinking that he's our most likely candidate if the second killer is an SK - he seems vaguely scummy, but doesn't seem like shaft.ed's buddy, I guess.

[cicero]

BillyTwilight, Oman and Erg0 are the three people still alive from the seven person CKD wagon. that also included

Adel, Simenon, Vollkan

and

Shaft.ed

[BillyTwilight]

If shaft.ed died via vigging then someone is going to give me hell for my stance on vigs not being all that useful for town.

C'est la vie

.

Remaining players:

cicero
Erg0
Jitsu
Oman
Kison (replacing Shanba)
The Fonz

Time for some role speculation (gasp! have at me, Jitsu!). We have either a 2 or three player mafia, and perhaps an independent. I highly doubt that we have a "normal" SK (see Guardian's Setup post), so the "peaceful" deaths are either a vig or a SK with some unusual characteristics. This might be something we need to keep in mind when dealing with this endgame. The presence of a GF indicates a cop in the game; the lack of a nightkill means either a doc or that shaft.ed had to submit the NK for scum, and his death resulted in mafia missing their target.

It appears that town has a fairly large amount of power. I can't see there being a 2-person mafia in this setup and still maintain balance. So I'm going on the assumption that at least 2 of the above are scum.

Fonz, Oman, and cicero had expressed a some suspicion of Adel back on day 1, something I still contend mafia would have been doing (shaft.ed was as well).

Unlike Kison I don't really find Fonzy scummy at this point. His back-off of shaft.ed yesterday feels real to me. Oman has been a scum-suspect of mine for quite some time, but I'm a little bit nervous about his play, which I consider to be fairly sloppy. I have no meta on Oman; I feel that if he is scum he hasn't put a lot of effort into trying to win this game, and it makes my scum read on him shaky. Cicero needs my reread; there might have been something to his hard reaction to the early day 1 bandwagon after all.

Erg0, Jitsu, and Kison: Erg0 is town. I have no read on Kison whatsoever; he also needs my reread. Jitsu is sending me all kinds of mixed signals. I'll get to his late day 2 posts shortly.

I apologize for missing the deadline. I'm used to deadlines happening at night in my timezone. I was at work and logged on to post and vote that evening, and was surprised to find the thread already closed. I would have voted Jitsu, btw.

I'll go back and reread shaft.ed in isolation to see if I can pick up on his partner(s). I will also get in a reread of cicero and Kison, who I have little read on currently. And I'll answer Jitsu's questions from yesterday.

[Jitsu]

That was a pretty awesome night last night -- the Godfather is dead, and it appears that the mafia kill failed too.

Coming in to today, my opinions on others haven't changed much from my end of the day post yesterday. I'm hoping a thorough reread focused on Shaft.ed interactions will help me better figure out the people in the middle of the pack for me. I will definitely look at Fonz's case on Oman.

@Fonz: In post 877, you say "attempt to out a power role at the very least with a fake claim. " What were you referring to there? It looks like an incomplete sentence or cut/paste error.

@Billy: I don't have a big problem with role speculation at this point. As for the failed mafia kill, part of your theory seems off a little bit. I can't imagine why Shaft.ed's death could have resulted in the Mafia miss -- don't most night actions happen simultaneously? Have you been in any games where a mafia death caused a missed NK?

[Jitsu]

Time for some role speculation (gasp! have at me, Jitsu!). We have either a 2 or three player mafia, and perhaps an independent. I highly doubt that we have a "normal" SK (see Guardian's Setup post), so the "peaceful" deaths are either a vig or a SK with some unusual characteristics. This might be something we need to keep in mind when dealing with this endgame. The presence of a GF indicates a cop in the game; the lack of a nightkill means either a doc or that shaft.ed had to submit the NK for scum, and his death resulted in mafia missing their target.

You seem to have missed two other possibilities for the NK:

1) the mafia's target had temporary or permanent NK immunity
2) a townie roleblocked whoever submitted the mafia kill

[Oman]

Anyway my scum list would be: Oman, CKD and the Fonz.

Also,

vote: Oman

One out of three is another surprisingly reliable indicator.

That includes yourself Though I agree entirely with this point, that one/three is often scum.

attempt to out a power role at the very least with a fake claim.

I don't actually remember this?

Note shaft.ed's Oman related behaviour D2: Votes him, but makes absolutely no effort to convince anyone to join him. Re-read shaft.ed day two. He says 'I'm not happy with Oman's play' quite a few times. Does not really make anything resembling a credible attempt to get him lynched.

This is accurate of several people.

This should ring alarm bells. He's voting Oman at this point, but apparently, I'm his top suspect, and he's dedicating most of his time to attacking me.

That actually rings bells the other way. He was "attacking" you (lets be fair, neither of you was pulling a huge crowd to the battle) and focusing on you, but was reluctant to shift a vote your way.

(Also, note shaft.ed's attempt to 'lurker' lynch me With help from...)

Pretty lame if that was his best attempt.

Basically these tells are not specific to me, and many of them can be flipped to you, which is more ironic than anything.

[The Fonz]

Oman: I'll deal with it in the morning. But in short-

NO U.

[Oman]

Okay, I'm sorry it comes out like that, but the point was that it could be directed to many players.

I see how it seems like an OMGUS here, but I'm simply making a point.

[cicero]

I'm V/LA for the August long weekend. Knowing me I'll check in anyway... but no promises.

[cicero]

Incidentally, I'm not ready to vote yet, but I think it might be dumb NOT to lynch Oman at this point. He's in the three suspicions of Shaft.ed, he was Shaft.ed's random vote and small focus at the beginning of day one (scum like to do that), his case on me was thoroughly artificial and he hasn't really demonstrated any hunger to scumhunt. Just the opposite. Maybe I've been thinking past the obvious too much in this game. Might be time to stop.

I'd like other people's thoughts on this plz.

[Jitsu]

Incidentally, I'm not ready to vote yet, but I think it might be dumb NOT to lynch Oman at this point. He's in the three suspicions of Shaft.ed, he was Shaft.ed's random vote and small focus at the beginning of day one (scum like to do that), his case on me was thoroughly artificial and he hasn't really demonstrated any hunger to scumhunt. Just the opposite. Maybe I've been thinking past the obvious too much in this game. Might be time to stop.

I'd like other people's thoughts on this plz.

It will be a bit longer before I finish a reread.

But, to speak to your case:

Shaft.ed random voting him: I don't really think this adds much weight to the case.

Mentioned as one of Shaft.ed's 3 suspects / Small focus at beginning of D1: Worth consideration. I think a reread that looks at whether Shaft.ed interacted differently with Oman than others could strengthen this point. There was also that weird statement by Shaft.ed that Oman was trying to shift the wagon on Cicero, which Shaft.ed later said was a joke, too.

His case on you was thoroughly artificial: Yes, I tend to agree with this. Given that he implied he was extraordinarily certain about his case on you, I was expecting to hear something pretty good from him (that's why I told him I'd wait to hear it). I was decidedly unimpressed by his case. I touched on this at the end of the day yesterday.

Hasn't really demonstrated any hunger to scumhunt: I tend to agree with this also. He was playing well early in D1, and it's trailed off from there. However, I don't really remember Oman having much of a "hunger" to scumhunt in either of our two previous games either (he was town in both). Maybe I should skim his posts there and see if there are any differences.

@Erg0: You said in Vollkan's game played with Oman a lot and know his style. Can shed some light on this?

[The Fonz]

Anyway my scum list would be: Oman, CKD and the Fonz.

Also,

vote: Oman

One out of three is another surprisingly reliable indicator.

That includes yourself Though I agree entirely with this point, that one/three is often scum.

Yes, it does include me. However, I know myself to be innocent, and it would be remiss of me to ignore useful evidence since it might paint me in a bad light.

attempt to out a power role at the very least with a fake claim.

I don't actually remember this?

That's nothing to do with anything. I quoted shaft.ed, and deleted all the bits that weren't relevant, but somehow that one random sentence fragment survived.

Note shaft.ed's Oman related behaviour D2: Votes him, but makes absolutely no effort to convince anyone to join him. Re-read shaft.ed day two. He says 'I'm not happy with Oman's play' quite a few times. Does not really make anything resembling a credible attempt to get him lynched.

This is accurate of several people.

Is it? Really? I think shaft.ed saying

I've never once accused Oman of being scummy in this game.

When he was actually voting you, and justified that vote

specifically

by saying that he was leaving his vote on you because you weren't in danger.

I've never once accused Oman of being scummy in this game. And your unvote was overly cautious thus suspicious.

And he left his vote on Oman how long, exactly?

When was Oman in danger of being lynched again? How did it matter?

This should ring alarm bells. He's voting Oman at this point, but apparently, I'm his top suspect, and he's dedicating most of his time to attacking me.

That actually rings bells the other way. He was "attacking" you (lets be fair, neither of you was pulling a huge crowd to the battle) and focusing on you, but was reluctant to shift a vote your way.

I think it rings alarm bells the way I said it did: he was devoting his time and energy to attacking me, but left his vote on you (possible fear of being seen to omgus?)

reaching against [shaft.ed], casting suspicions that are hardly scummy and apply to almost half the players here, and being hypocritical.

unvote vote: The Fonz

And, as noted, he also specifically denied thinking you were scummy. I'd invite all non-me and Oman players to look over the interactions of shaft.ed with both me and Oman, and tell me which you think look more like genuine attacks and which look more like bussing. I believe it's obvious, but then, I'm hardly an impartial observer. In particular, notice his big attack on me at the beginning of day two.

(Also, note shaft.ed's attempt to 'lurker' lynch me With help from...)

Pretty lame if that was his best attempt.

Basically these tells are not specific to me, and many of them can be flipped to you, which is more ironic than anything.

No. This is flat out untrue. There is a pattern of shaft.ed interaction toward Oman that simply isn't true of anyone else. After he votes you on day two, he then completely ignores you for quite a while. Then he comes out with:

My top 3 has been stated already. I stand by them.

I'm really unhappy with the way Oman has been playing as of late. Is it really that hard to type out three names? And why are you still standing by your completely deconstructed cicero "case"?

This reads to me as a shot across a scumbuddy's bows. There's no, 'look, further evidence of Oman-scum' here, even though he apparently dislikes this, and already thought you scummy enough to vote. He keeps making one-off, throwaway comments like this:

I don't like how Oman continues to coast.

And not following them up with anything.

Contrast with has actually attempting to make a case on me.

Also note that this is basically the same defence shaft.ed gave when i accused him of bethedging- he said that the same could be said of half the game.

[Oman]

Fonz, a few things come up here.

One was similar to Shaft.ed not saying that I'm scummy but voting me is the way that Simeon did that to Cicero at the beginning of the game.

The second is why, when you were so suspicious of shaft.ed, did you not bring all this up earlier (unless I missed it)

[BillyTwilight]

I just got through a brief reread of shaft.ed. I'm getting ready to go on vacation, so I'll have LA for the next week (I should have some access, though, as long as my father in law brings his comp).

Looking over shaft.ed's play my list would look like this, ranked first to last as likely mafia:

1.) cicero
2.) Kison
3.) Oman
4.) Jitsu
5.) Fonzy
6.) Erg0

Cicero has the least amount of headbutting with shaft.ed of anyone in the game. And I don't buy that shaft.ed had to put one of his mafia members in his suspect list, which cicero has taken from Fonzy and ran with a little on this page.

shaft.ed continual pining about shanba's absence reads off to me, so there might be something there. I will say that Kison's interaction with shaft.ed reads a lot more genuinely, but isn't as strong as shaft.ed's interaction with others.

Basically I feel that Oman, Jitsu, Fonz, and Erg0 were all attacked by shaft.ed in this game in a genuine manner. I'm coming under the impression that shaft.ed did no bussing/distancing for the sake of bussing/distancing in this game.

This list is tentative, as I only had time to read shaft.ed in isolation. Will try to get to the rest of the players later this week, and things may change with further reading, but right now I feel pretty good about cicero.

[Kison]

I got through the first 60-70 Shafted posts(out of 150?). Sorry. Had to work late today. Anyways, nothing immediately enlightening stands out. I did catch he treated Oman exceptionally hard for lurking(with reasons that he had no meta on Billy and something else for another) and no I have not yet looked into Fonz's most recent Oman<->Shafted link. I will get to that tomorrow. Right now though Oman<->Shafted doesn't appear very obvious.

Billy, why do you assume Shafted did no bussing for the sake of bussing?

Will try to have a writeup of this tomorrow.

[The Fonz]

Fonz, a few things come up here.

One was similar to Shaft.ed not saying that I'm scummy but voting me is the way that Simeon did that to Cicero at the beginning of the game.

Who's Simeon?

The second is why, when you were so suspicious of shaft.ed, did you not bring all this up earlier (unless I missed it)

Because, surprisingly enough, I was trying to work out IF he was scum, not who his buddies were. Case of priorities- find scum, then look for pairings.