Princess Bride Mafia - Game Over

[mikehart]

i could be missing something but jadesmar seems awfully quiet, im quiet to the point of lurking in my games but jadesmar is being really quiet

[Norinel]

I noticed this during the night: On the deadlist, it says things for the mafia like Prince Humperdink (Mafia). It doesn't say ROUS (SK), just ROUS. That means if the ROUS role is anything like Buttercup's role, which is probably similar to my own, it's a bit on the event-based/searching for people side and not really like a standard role. (For instance, one of my role's abilities was to look for Miracle Max)

And now that we know rite (probably) wasn't manufacturing results, we can reduce the noncleared list to Someone, mole and Sugar. They're all townies who apparently know the townie pm, but if any of them were recruited at some point, they'd know it. Of course, anyone recruited might've been investigated earlier, which is where things get interesting. Maybe the check on the ability of townies to confirm each other is that they can be recruited by the ROUS or whatever.

[Norinel]

we can reduce the noncleared list to Someone, mole and Sugar

And massive.

[Fishbulb]

Well, looks like I do have an extra vote. I couldn't imagine an ROUS that had extra power in lynchings.

[massive]

Massive, was that

your

fist?! Explain!

Certainly possible, I was the most vocal against him in this game.

If we're considering that the ROUS "bite" might have been a recruit rather than a kill attempt gone wrong, we (unfortunately) need to include Talitha in our suspect list. I also agree with Fishypuss that a Mafia member with two votes is a little overpowered, so he's clear in my mind. However, let's hope that that doesn't mean BOTH Talitha and Someone are ROUS'es.

Someone got bit N4. DP/Talitha got bit N5. I need to go back and read if DP's "that smelled like town" post came AFTER he would have been bit, or before. Talitha DID fail to remember to investigate rite N6. The kills picked back up N7.

I'm willing to lynch Someone to prove this theory. Discussion?

[Norinel]

If the bite was a failed kill attempt and the recruition is instead of killing, the only night not accounted for is Night 1, which wouldn't be a good time to do a one-shot recruit.

Or maybe there's just always been more than one ROUS as a mafia with some combination of of the town thinking it's just an SK, knowing what the townie name is, or investigation immunity. I lean towards this possibility, personally.

[Talitha]

If I got bit and recruited night 5, why would I have got Dourgrim lynched the next day?? (I think I've got my timing right there...)

For the record, it didn't happen. The first I knew of the bite was when Meme mentioned it. I won't ask if anyone can confirm that I was protected, but I think that's the reason I didn't die.

I think if there's any recruiting been going on, it's been going on in secret.
I hope Norinel's right, and there's been 2 ROUS all along, which means it has to be one of the uncleared people.

[Norinel]

Someone got bit N4.

Well, yeah, but

who

got bit N4?

(Sorry, just realized I hadn't made my obligatory Someone joke yet)

I just realized it'd be possible that Dourgrim got a recruit after he died, since Night 6 was also no bite no kill.

I think we should lynch one of our last few uncleareds. Here's the even-more updated form of the list, now with night numbers since recruitment might be happening: (And I missed mole in my last list of the uncleared by anyone)

Talitha/DP (Grandpa, innocent by rite N1)
Fishbulb 2 replaces CRiX (The King, innocent by rite N2)
jadesmar (? but innocent via DP N3 and rite N4)
massive (Fezzik)
mikehart (generic Florin townie, innocent via DP N6)
mole (generic Florin townie, innocent by rite N6)
Norinel replaces Darkblade (Westley, innocent by DP N7)
Someone (generic Florin townie)
Sugar (generic Florin townie)

[massive]

I really wish, now, that I knew what jadesmar's role did. It would help explain what exactly happened on N6 with no kill happening. The immediate thing that comes to mind is that maybe it's a time-delay conversion? Possibly Someone got bit N4 and became a ROUS to kill N7, which would mean that Talitha becomes an ROUS tonight?

I really am stabbing in the dark here. I have no idea. Obviously if there are two ROUS'es and they can recruit and have the person join THAT NIGHT, this game is lost to us because we only have one lynch and they can eventually outnumber us, so I don't think that's the case. Maybe only Dourgrim could bite-recruit?

Or maybe there's just always been more than one ROUS [...]

I think I'm leaning this way less and less. Although, ROUS'es don't LOOK like they were human at one point in time though. Who's left unaccounted for if we assume that Dourgrim wouldn't attack the other ROUS? Myself and Sugar?

Talitha: I'm sure, if we have a doctor left, that you were protected. That MIGHT explain why you were bit and not killed, but NOT why Someone was bit and not killed (since you gotta figure that that doctor was also protecting you on N4 when Someone was bit). Plus Dourgrim got lynched D5, but the info that you had been bitten on N5 didn't come up until N6.

[massive]

The immediate thing that comes to mind is that maybe it's a time-delay conversion?

Why, yes, massive, I agree with your possible conclusion! You seem like a smart lad (and handsome as well, I might add), and so far what you've said makes one-hundred-percent sense!

... Actually I don't think this is the case. I definitely think that Dourgrim could have recruited on Night 5 since it was almost guaranteed that he was going to get lynched ANYWAYS on Day 5. Allowing Talitha to "out" him at that point was not only going along with what was going to happen regardless (due to rite investigating him also), but also re-confirmed her as a "townie" in all our eyes. Dourgrim would have known he wouldn't be able to convert BOTH of the investigators, so he would have picked Talitha/DP over the already-suspicious-and-lynchable rite. The ROUSes could have taken Night 6 off to allow us all to move towards the "rite as Mafia spy" theory and stay off the radar.

Just my opinion of course. But I agree with myself.

Again, the discrepancies, and then I'm voting for Someone. One: Talitha would have been protected on Night 5 when she was bit, but Someone would NOT have been protected on Night 4, so we can't just assume that they "just survived." Two: If the bites were "protected attacks," then why wasn't there either a bite or a kill Night 6?

vote Someone

I think I'm logicked out.

[massive]

It only counts as double-posting, I swear ...

Firstly, I'm tending to believe all the claimed townies, even Mikehart. Mikehart, I suggest you check your counting/spelling and try again, cos I think you may have made a simple mistake. (I can see where you made the mistake.)

The potential answer to my question is making my boots quake. Talitha: Where exactly were you able to see where mikehart made the mistake in his townie math? (This was Day 4 btw.) And then why did you investigate mikehart on Night 6?

[Talitha]

I definitely think that Dourgrim could have recruited on Night 5 since it was almost guaranteed that he was going to get lynched ANYWAYS on Day 5. Allowing Talitha to "out" him at that point was not only going along with what was going to happen regardless (due to rite investigating him also), but also re-confirmed her as a "townie" in all our eyes.

Hold on a minute. Take a look and you'll see that I fingered Dourgrim as scum

before

rite had come out and said who he investigated. I was actually quite surprised that rite investigated the same person as me, after I had made my suspicions explicit in the twilight previous.
I don't know Dourgrim that well, but do you really think he would tell me to finger him and bow out of the game so easily, leaving his game outcome in the hands of a relative noob???

Argh I have more to say here, but I just saw your latest post. I'll have to check back over the thread to quote where I thought the maths mistake was. Gimme a minute.

[Talitha]

Here are my notes about what people said about the townie role:

Sugar: My role is not called "Florin Townsperson"
Someone: Florin something, 3rd letter 'a'
Sugar: Someone is correct
Mole: My role name has 2 words, both a prime number of letters
Someone: Mole is correct
Sugar: No, Mole is not correct
Someone: Mole, what's vowels minus consonants in our entire title?
Sugar: The official role name has 2 words, one of which Someone gave a correct clue for.
Mole: There are 3 more consonants than vowels.
Mole: I was wrong, I though Florin had 5 letters
Someone: I'm positive the 2nd word is prime. It has 7 letters. I made the same mistake and miscounted Florin.

OK, From all this I deduced that the rolename was

Florin Peasant

I don't think it hurts to say it now, and I don't even know for sure that this is the correct role name, but it's what I came up with. (I'm a compulsive word puzzler, I can't help myself)

mikehart: What is the value of val(sixth letter) - val(third from last letter)?

mikehart immediately answered -5
If Florin Peasant is correct the answer should have been val(N) - val(A)
14 - 1 = 13
However if mikehart mistakenly used the S in peasant instead of the A he would have calculated 14 - 19 = -5

I hope that answers you qquestion, can you tell me where your brain is going with this now?

[Talitha]

Sorry, you wanted to know why I investigated him. He was the only other player apart from Werebear and Dourgrim who had any votes on him the previous day. So I though he was the logical choice.

[Fishbulb]

I think we need to get Jadesmar replaced. He has been missing for quite a while now; being replaced in every other game, I believe.

[MeMe]

So noted. I'm working on it.

[massive]

Hold on a minute. Take a look and you'll see that I fingered Dourgrim as scum

before

rite had come out and said who he investigated. I was actually quite surprised that rite investigated the same person as me, after I had made my suspicions explicit in the twilight previous.

I believe, however, that you and Dourgrim are smart enough to fool the rest of us. One of Dourgrim's big pushes to survive the day before (the day we lynched Werebear) was: You have two investigators, let them investigate me, and if I come back guilty, I'll vote for myself. He knew in advance that probably BOTH investigators would check him ... and if you came back with "innocent", rite came back with "guilty", and we ended up lynching rite ... we'd find out that rite was pro-town and lynch Dourgrim AND you in quick order. So the logical choice is to give in to fate and "protect the pack". I think it's a pretty common Mafia thought process, town or mafia, that if you die but your team wins because you died, you still win.

And as for townie math: What you're telling me is that not only can two of the townies not count (the whole prime number debaucle from earlier), but THREE of the townies can't count? Good thing this isn't a math game.

-- massik

[Talitha]

Massive: I really think you are clutching at straws here. I know it would be convenient for us if MeMe actually advertised who had been recruited by Dourgrim in the morning post, but I can tell you that you are on the wrong track here. I suppose it's theoretically

possible

that Dourgrim and I have been in this together since Night 5, but I still see some huge problems with your reasoning. We would've at least waited to hear who rite investigated before charging ahead with our cunning plan. Dourgrim wouldn't have bothered to concoct his "Boy's mother" roleclaim.

I am very curious as to why Someone was bitten but not killed. Is there any possibility at all that he was protected one of those nights??

I have also had the rodent time delay theory in my head, ever since I first read the thread and saw that no-one died from a rodent bite night 1... and that Miracle Max died of a

festering

leg wound night 2. My guess is that the rodent bites take a day to kill.[/i]

[Sugar]

Massive, it's true that we townies seem to have quite a bit of trouble with math. I'd chalk it mostly up to quick posting and simple errors in spelling though, especially since they each gave an additional piece of information about the role which has convinced me. Still, the sloppy play has been a little dismaying and confusing. Yet in my mind, each of the other 3 are cleared (with the exception of Someone and that ROUS bite).

I'm thinking it's probably best to wait until jadesmar is replaced, and then see if his replacement can shed any light on the non-fatal ROUS bites. As far as the time-delay theory on the ROUS bites, I'm not seeing it as a possibility. Perhaps they only have so many kills they can make in the game. Or perhaps their bites have some sort of chance factor worked into their success rate. Or maybe they can choose to recruit, but that success rate is a gamble... who knows, or they're only given so many recruiting opportunities... let's just wait for jadesmar's replacement.

One other thing that has me intrigued is Vizzini's role turning out to be pro-town. I'm now braced for the possibility that a role we'd assume to be a given town will turn out to be scum... such as Fezzik. Because if there is no recruiting going on, the only possibililties for evil, to me, are massive and Talitha.

[mikehart]

the reason my first answer was wrong was because i read the text under the role in the pm and not the role itself. because i got 14 - 19 = -5 from Flori

n

Townsper

s

on just to clarify. that point on the

festering

leg wound kinda makes sense

[Talitha]

Hopefully I'll have time to do some kind of rodent activity timeline sometime soon, to see if it backs up my theory.

[massive]

I'm now braced for the possibility that a role we'd assume to be a given town will turn out to be scum

OK, now, this makes less sense than spinning a plate on my thumb. (Sorry.) With both Vizzini and Montoya dead and proven townie, why does it makes sense for ME to be the one "infidel" who would be a mafia-ite? It's a logical conclusion that Vizzini COULD be a townie (since, as MeMe said, his loyalties were always available to the highest bidder). It's NOT a logical conclusion that Fezzik would turn the other way. Heck, he didn't even START the movie as really a bad guy. Remember that both he and Montoya didn't know the real reason they had kidnapped Buttercup.

I'm hoping that jadesmar's replacement can help but I seriously doubt it. What role is left that hasn't been roleclaimed either truthfully or falsely? The boy?

I still think lynching Someone is the best bet here, unfortunately. (And speaking of being silent, Someone has been also since we started today.) If he's not a mouse, then we can start over.

Dourgrim wouldn't have bothered to concoct his "Boy's mother" roleclaim.

Remember that he'd been refusing the entire game. Go back and read the day we lynched Werebear. It was painfully obvious that he was hinting that he was Montoya as an FBI-agent-style role (innocent result day one, found mlaker guilty day two, no other results of his own) without actually coming out and saying it. Of COURSE he couldn't claim Montoya - mathcam would have blasted him (especially since mathcam was a confirmed townie).

[Sugar]

why does it makes sense for ME to be the one "infidel" who would be a mafia-ite?

All right. It doesn't make much sense that Fezzik would be an ROUS, which is all we seem to have left here.

Everyone still alive has already been officially cleared by DP/Talitha or rite, except massive, myself, Someone and Talitha. I know I'm not an ROUS, and you taking the risk of falsely claiming Fezzik, well, it'd be hard to imagine such a gamble. That leaves our two bite-surviving victims, doesn't it?

Here's my list of ROUS night activity:
N1 - Nothing, but could have attacked Fishbulb1
N2 - Fishbulb1 died of festering wound, could have attacked JereIC
N3 - JereIC died of festering wound
N4 - Attacked Someone
N5 - Attacked Talitha
N6 - Nothing, but could have attacked mathcam
N7 - mathcam died of festering wound

I see that voting Someone is our best bet. It simply makes no sense that there's any way we could still have evil in this game without it being either of those two. However I'd still like to wait for jadesmar's replacement to weigh in with his insights/information. And yes, I don't know what role he'd be except the grandson, and that role having a bit of protection ability doesn't seem too far-fetched, especially with the grandfather role being so important.

[MeMe]

mathcam replaces jadesmar effective immediately.

[Talitha]

Here's my theory on how the rodent activity went:

Night 1

Attacked: Fishbulb 1
Protect or block: No

Died: No-one

Night 2

Attacked: JereIC
Protect or block: No

Died: Fishbulb 1

Night 3

Attacked: Someone
Protect or block: Yes

Died: JereIC

Night 4

Attacked: Talitha
Protect or block: Yes

Wounded: Someone

Night 5

Attacked/Recruited: ?????

Wounded: Talitha

Night 6

Attacked: Mathcam 1
Protect or block: No

Died/Wounded: No-one

Night 7

Attacked: ?

Died: Mathcam 1

That's the best I can do. I reckon Dourgrim recruited on Night 5 (Maybe a one-shot recruit?)