Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[Oman]

Vollkan Moots?

Wait, are you a Rover then?

*headdesk*

No, I meant this sort of moot. Basically, it entails pretending to be a barrister and arguing a case in a pretend court.

Thus, it is nothing like a Rover moot which, google tells me, is something that Australia's scouts do.

(Seriously, I'd rather rot on a crucifix than do all that outdoorsy, physical crap)

Panzy

[Guardian]

Vote Count 25

vollkan[2] (The Fonz, cicero)
Jitsu[2] (Kison, vollkan)
shaft.ed[1] (Erg0)
cicero[1] (Oman)
Oman[1] (shaft.ed)
BillyTwilight[1] (Jitsu)


Not Voting[1] (BillyTwilight,)

---

Reminder:

Deadline: July 28, 6PM EST

[Erg0]

My hope for a shaft.ed lynch is dimming at this point.

Unvote, Vote: Jitsu

My preference is still for a shaft.ed lynch - I'll shift back to him if there's any chance of getting a majority. I'll be back about 2 hours before deadline.

[Oman]

Seems I need to take a Vollkan / Jitsu side.

I really don't think either are really scummy, and right now Jitsu is at 3, vollkan at 2.

I assume Jitsu will move to Vollkan making it 3 all.


Hmm.

Vote Vollkan

I see nothing against Jitsu that I can consider scummy.

[vollkan]

Vote Vollkan I see nothing against Jitsu that I can consider scummy.

Picques my interest.

You said:

I'll take a look at vollkan, I just feel like my cases are dwindling away and I need to find scum!

And now you are voting me over Jitsu. Fair enough, you might reasonably disagree with me on Jitsu being scummy, but what tilts the balance towards me?

[cicero]

Why does Vollkan keep asking questions he ought reasonably be able to answer himself?

[Oman]

Jitsu plays as Jitsu plays, granted he has no scum meta.

You however are playing differently, which makes you dangerous, Maveric.

I'd rather take out the unpredictably, slightly strange Vollkan, than the townie looking Jitsu.

[vollkan]

Why does Vollkan keep asking questions he ought reasonably be able to answer himself?

In this game, it is rare that I will ask a question that I don't think I can reasonably answer. I might be speaking for myself here, but comparing an answer that somebody gives to a question of mine to the answer that I would envisage as most reasonable is often just as useful as simply aquiring an answer.

Jitsu plays as Jitsu plays, granted he has no scum meta.

You however are playing differently, which makes you dangerous, Maveric.

I'd rather take out the unpredictably, slightly strange Vollkan, than the townie looking Jitsu.

Playing differently from when? What game/s are you judging this by? It seems to me, that what is essentially happening here is that people are judging me against one particular idea of my meta. And, let's not forget, some of my most aggressive and hyper-active performances have been as scum. Further complicating things: I've already drawn attention to the fact that the idea that "relatively inactive vollkan is unusual and scummy" has failed before in California mafia.

Basically, the point I am trying to make is that I have no clear meta style either generally, or alignment-based. Sure, I have a number of constants (dislike of hunches especially), but it's sheer deceptiveness to construct one meta portrait of me as "normal" and to deem anything that deviates from that to be "strange".

Tell you what, explain to me what you perceive "town" vollkan to be, and how "scum" vollkan differs from that image. With game references please.

[The Fonz]

I kinda wonder what caused The Fonz to drop his second and third suspects from a few pages back and vote for vollkan instead.

Also, that shaft.ed unvote was weak - putting in legwork may be a town-tell, but does something so meta outweigh your supposedly solid case against him based on his play?

It wasn't weak. Putting in legwork like that indicates a genuine attempt to ascertain another player's alignment, which is a significant town tell. How does something being 'so meta' affect anything?

As for the 'other two' suspects, well, one, Cicero's posts indicated to me that I might have been allowing Vollkan to slide beneath my radar. Secondly, the BT suspicion was largely based on lurking- and BT has been far more active since then. Jitsu is currently my no2, and if Vollkan claims power, that will be alternative no1.

[Jitsu]

I also agree with Jitsu in relation to BT's weird vig point. One question, Jitsu, the reasons you have for your BT vote are somewhat unclear in weighting. Is the allegation that you were distancing from a shafted wagon the main factor for you?

No. I admit it is a small part of the reason, but hardly the main factor.

The main factor is that he professed support for a horrendous strategy that has almost no benefit for the town and a lot of potential benefit for the scum, and even after that fact was pointed out to him, he did not back down from his opinion. I realize that the situation he speaks of is hypothetical, given that Adel's killer remains hidden, but I can't imagine a townie wanting to put more weight on wiping out a vig based on theoretical arguments at the expense of costing the town the game. *If* the hypothetical situation mentioned did occur (a forced Vig were outed), he's made it clear that he would advocate a strategy that I believe would harm the town instead of helping it. I have a firm belief that a townie should do what is necessary to help his or her team win within the bounds of ethical play, even if it means setting aside one's theories of how the game should be played or the usefulness of various roles to focus on the situation at hand.

I just don't see how discussing the Vig/SK right now is really going to help us. We need to hit scum today, by lynching the person we feel is scummiest. Discussing who the Vig/SK is only seems to distract from that.

BillyTwilight has accused me of arguing that he is trying to send the town on a Vig hunt. I don't think he was doing that. I think he was encouraging discussion of who the Vig and SK were, which could out the vig and could give a lot of information to the scum about the setup.

I admit that I'm not sure why a scum would stick to a theory argument here and not admit that the strategy is flawed. The only thing I can figure is that Billy-scum is counting on the fact that the Vig/SK will not be revealed and play up the fact that the situation is still hypothetical.

To address your point though, Billy did seem to latch on to the theory that I am scum desperately looking for a mislynch target, ramping up the pressure on him in a suspicious way after failing to do the same to Shaft.ed. I posted a pretty good counter to that (I mentioned suspicions of him before the scathing criticism of my Shaft.ed attack occurred), and he has, as of yet, not commented on that. He also has not seemed to acknowledge any of the reasons why lynching the vig would be a bad idea, and has instead stuck to his guns about the strategy. It looks to me that he is trying to attack me instead of directly debating me on the issue. I think he is so convinced I am scum for attacking him that he cannot see the possibility that I am a townie legitimately attacking him for a decidedly anti-town strategy. I'm not putting a lot of weight on that however, since CKD may have been lynched for the same thing earlier, and I pushed for Guardian's lynch D1 in your game, and he acted similarly as a townie there.

[The Fonz]

I also agree with Jitsu in relation to BT's weird vig point. One question, Jitsu, the reasons you have for your BT vote are somewhat unclear in weighting. Is the allegation that you were distancing from a shafted wagon the main factor for you?

No. I admit it is a small part of the reason, but hardly the main factor.

The main factor is that he professed support for a horrendous strategy that has almost no benefit for the town and a lot of potential benefit for the scum, and even after that fact was pointed out to him, he did not back down from his opinion.

People tend to be quite stubborn about game theory.

[Jitsu]

People tend to be quite stubborn about game theory.

Being stubborn about game theory is one thing, but he seems to be saying that if that situation did occur here, that he would stick to his theory, even though it could quite possibly cost us the game. I have a problem with that.

[shaft.ed]

I'll take a look at vollkan, I just feel like my cases are dwindling away and I need to find scum!

What cases?

[shaft.ed]

Just looking at early posts of mine: Post 6 I make an argument against Cicero's point on Simenon being a silly bugger.

Not true.

It depends on the individual. Some people will play scum by hiding in the shadows and hoping not to be noticed. Others will play hard and aggressive in order to "hide in the open". Arguing that scum will hide in the shadows only makes it more rational for scum to play hard and aggressive.

I like how you note that scum will hide in the shadows "UNLESS they plan to confound expectations", as though planning to confound expectations is somehow something that scum don't ordinarily do. Rational scum will seek to maximise their own survival and, as a result, will seek to confound expectations if they can do so.

This is very much worded as theory discussion. But I will give you it is related to what cicero had pointed out.

Post 8 I try questioning Erg0 on the need for a screw-up.

which you later indicated was a joke

What this game really needs is for somebody to do something stupid. That usually gets things rolling.

Interesting. You apparently have a clear idea about what "needs" to be done, but you yourself aren't actually prepared to do it? Any reason why?

Was this a joke?

It was puffed-up inquisition-style.

Post 10, I take the view that Adel being conservative is not a tell. Post 11, I argue against you on Adel....

This is about were any sign of content begins but is it still mostly comments on "low lying fruit."

namely that I was still under the Vollkan-effect-averting style of posting that I didn't like playing with.

You later indicated that you were avoiding the "vollkan-effect" by trying to avoid PBP's, but now this stretches into inquisitions?

Anyway I did some rereading of vollkan after yesterday and I'm not liking his play much. The first half or so of yesterday he mostly skirts around issues making theory commentary.

This is not true. I had theory, and I had content. Nothing was meaty, but your dismissiveness is unwarranted.

I do not think it was that dismissive. The first point where you reach contribution is around 11 days into the game four short of half of day 1.

Sorry? I don't see your point here. Obviously, PBPs are focussed on the past. I don't see why you see that as somehow being a point against me. In the end, I did address the recent posts as relevant in my PBPs.

I'm pointing out the lack of agression that I'm used to townvollkan and not scumvollkan displaying.

Have a look at California Trilogy. I was lynched D4 after inactivity.

I'll have a read. That is what I'm worried about. I know my posting style can ebb and flow a bit, but the meta I have from our games together is pretty decent. However, you're also attributing your lackluster effort to avoiding the vollkan-effect.

Interesting that you drop a vote on Jitsu after I prod you about it, though your recent points have been against BT.

[The Fonz]

Right, how to resolve the impasse.

I think either of the following two will work:

1. Kison and I flip a coin, and whoever loses switches.
2. Everyone agrees to lynch BT instead if he doesn't show up to break the deadlock.

[Jitsu]

BillyTwilight and Shaft.ed are my top tier preferred lynch choices.

BillyTwilight: I already explained my reasons for my vote on him above.

Shaft.ed: I agree somewhat with the Fonz here, in the sense that Shaft.ed's reason for his turnaround on the Fonz was better than I was expecting. I was anticipating some lame reason manufactured to justify a turn to Vollkan. I didn't get a chance to meta the Fonz to see if the things Shaft.ed cited are really how things went down, but the Fonz really seems convinced. I'm not quite as convinced as Fonz seems to be though about the turnaround. I would have felt better about it if he didn't turn to Vollkan (who he hasn't focused much on this game) so suddenly, and if the turn had occurred earlier in the day. I'm still suspicious of Shaft.ed, but maybe a little less than before. I still don't like how he cast suspicion on Adel due only to meta on D1, and I still think his activity near the end of D1, particularly the Fonzvote was suspect. Also, I agree with some of the points of Fonz's case against him. I think Shaft.ed has been in a largely defensive, opportunistic mode most of the game, not taking the initiative to attack, but has made a lot of counterattacks when pushed by others, and I don't like how often has seemed used the "So what? / Why would I do that as scum?" defense. I still find the sudden turn on Fonz suspect.

The next group of five are much closer together and represent my middle tier. I'm really confused about this group, as I don't see a clear winner for who is scummiest, even though at least one should be, given that we probably have three mafia.

Oman: I thought he played pretty well early on D1, but I don't like how he seemed to slack off and get lazy near the end of the day. On D2, I also don't like how he still hasn't given much in the way of evidence at all of his case on Cicero even though he's stated that he was unusually certain (for him) who the scum were.

Vollkan: I still don't like he doesn't seem to be as engaged in this game. He seemed to really be flying low under the radar today before he became a viable lynch candidate, and for most of Day 2, I don't think he really added much content. I agree though, that to be fair that there has been a dearth of good content to really analyze this game. As for scumminess, I don't think he's done much that anybody could really make a strong case against. The most compelling points against him is that he has not seriously engaged a lot of people in the game (myself being a notable exception), and is instead hanging back, pointing out flaws in arguments, probing on a few points here or there, and doing his end of day analysis. I would like to have seen another end of day analysis today and seen if any of his opinions have changed (or what his opinions are now on people he didn't have much data on on D1). Even so, I would rather lynch someone that looks scummier. I also don't care for the information a Vollkan lynch gives right now. If Vollkan is scum, I fear for our chances if he limps into the endgame.

Fonz: I really did not suspect him at all until his turnaround on Shaft.ed. I do agree that doing legwork is more indicative of a townie, but given how dead-set Fonz was against Shaft.ed from the beginning, I have to wonder how Shaft.ed's "Fonz meta" explanation was that strong of a town tell that it largely washed out almost two days of what Fonz thinks was highly scummy behavior enough to drop Shaft.ed to at best, #3 on Fonz's suspicion list. I admit though that my suspicion of Fonz is largely tied to my suspicion of Shaft.ed, as I haven't seen anything that looked scummy in his interactions with other players. If it weren't for the Shaft.ed turnaround, he'd be down in the bottom tier with Cicero.

Erg0: More active than Vollkan overall, and seems to be contributing more, but he's definitely not the active townie champion I saw in Vollkan's game. I realize that he has admitted to not being able to devote as much time to this game, and he's apparently had similar lapses in other games. Even with that, his play here just doesn't seem to be as strong as I'm used to seeing from him. I would expect a longer post with more questions and good analysis whenever he caught up, but he hasn't really been doing that. I like his criticism on Shaft.ed though.

Kison: Nothing much has stood out to me on him as a tell either way. I'm worried about him because he REALLY seems to have flown under the radar. His predecessor Shanba survived to Day 2 even though he made only a handful (four I think) posts all day. And Kison hasn't been tested at all today.


My bottom tier is Cicero.

Cicero: After being tunneled on him on Day 1 for some suspicious behavior early, I reread N1 and my opinion of him softened. Cicero was not afraid to state opinions and I can't find a lot of flaws in his reasoning. He's been pretty active and has largely not avoided criticism directed at him, and I can't see that he distorted anything to make his cases. If I had to choose one player to trust right now, it would be him.


I don't see a move to either Billy or Shaft.ed right now, and they are my preferred choices. I am most happy voting for one of them, and I will gladly join a wagon on them if it happens.


The vote count right now seems to be:

Jitsu[3] (Kison, vollkan, Erg0)
vollkan[3] (The Fonz, cicero, Oman)
Oman[1] (shaft.ed)
BillyTwilight[1] (Jitsu)

Not Voting[1] (BillyTwilight)


But right now looking at the voting dynamics, I don't see a shift to Billy and I prefer we not flip a coin. I didn't vote soon enough at the end of Day 1, and I don't want to repeat the same mistake today and keep my vote on someone with one vote on them.

Shaft.ed seems more likely, but the Fonz doesn't appear to want him now, Vollkan's vote is on his preferred candidate, and I don't see Erg0 joining me to vote Shaft.ed without someone else doing likewise. Shaft.ed would vote Oman, but I don't see Oman getting lynched at this point. Shaft.ed other choices are me or Vollkan, and it seems obvious that Billy would rather join a wagon on me than on Vollkan.

I'm not really sold on Vollkan's guilt, but given the choice of having the town lynch me, who I know am town, and lynching Vollkan who may be scum, I have to choose him. This will put Vollkan at L-1, so I feel that I need to vote now, so if Vollkan does claim power, the town can discuss it before switching candidates.

Unvote, Vote: Vollkan

[The Fonz]

Vollkan, claim.

[shaft.ed]

I think Shaft.ed has been in a largely defensive, opportunistic mode most of the game, not taking the initiative to attack, but has made a lot of counterattacks when pushed by others

I would very much disagree with this. I likely look defensive because I've been the primary target of about half the game for most of today.

2. Everyone agrees to lynch BT instead if he doesn't show up to break the deadlock.

Why is BT the default no vollkan lynch? It seems a Jitsu lynch has more support.

unvote

as my Oman vote is doing nothing but blocking a lynch at this point.

[The Fonz]

Because i thought we were deadlocked (didn't realise jitsu had not yet voted vk) and i thought it's ridiculous to have two players tied at deadline and him still not voting.

[Jitsu]

unvote

as my Oman vote is doing nothing but blocking a lynch at this point.

Your unvote has another effect, which you may or may not be aware of.

Now there are only 7 votes cast instead of 8, which means Vollkan, who now has 4 votes, will be lynched if nothing changes.

[shaft.ed]

unvote

as my Oman vote is doing nothing but blocking a lynch at this point.

Your unvote has another effect, which you may or may not be aware of.

Now there are only 7 votes cast instead of 8, which means Vollkan, who now has 4 votes, will be lynched if nothing changes.

Don't worry I will hammer vollkan before deadline. I am not playing coy with avoiding responsibility. I am awaiting his claim.

[Jitsu]

Don't worry I will hammer vollkan before deadline. I am not playing coy with avoiding responsibility. I am awaiting his claim.

Just making sure.

[Kison]

I'm here and have read some, but not all, of the recent post asplosion.

Or we could, ya know... lynch someone for more than just lurking.

Rewards lurking.

*shrugs* I'm not too worried about punishing it unless it's indicative of alignment, and right now I'm not getting that strong of a feeling that's the case. If anything, with Erg0 at least, it's more of a pain due to the difficulty it's presenting with reading him. Beneficial for scum? Sure. But could just as easily be him being lazy town, like he was in Space Monkeys. Same applies with Vollkan and California Trilogy.

I recall you disliking Erg0's top three picks. Did you not like the reasons he presenting for any of them? I agree his #3 being 'everyone else' was a cop-out.

I'd rather take out the unpredictably, slightly strange Vollkan, than the townie looking Jitsu.

This is very vague... What is unpredictable about Vollkan and why is this scummy?
Why do you think Jitsu looks town, especially after his forced case against shaft.ed? Reading back, the only two things I can see that you've said was a post he made(166) and the lack of a meta read on him. Is that it?

[Erg0]

I'm here, not that there's anything for me to do at the moment. I'll check back in an hour or so.

[cicero]

Sure there's something for you to do. Go over to Vollkan's house and wake him up.

It's 5:30am there, no? Why the heck are

you

up?