Hot Potato Mafia - Game Over


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Post Post #325 (ISO) » Sun Jul 27, 2008 11:48 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

The Sweet Potato has had 2 throws: (Crazy->BM->Armlx)

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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #326 (ISO) » Sun Jul 27, 2008 11:49 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

The Baked Yellow Potato has had only 1 throw: (JohnWWells->CoheedCambria)

I think we have some life left in us yet. :P

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Survived to the end and lost - 6
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winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #327 (ISO) » Sun Jul 27, 2008 11:52 pm

Post by M4yhem »

Hmm, that is quite a scummy post from John but I'm thinking it might be newness talking.

The obvious problem is that townies can be wrong when they suspect someone of being scum. I know if you killed me every time I was wrong in a game, I'd never make it past day one. So this is a bad plan. I don't see what's wrong with armlx's plan actually: we vote on two front runners and then pass the potatos to them.

Of course, I'm not saying we should ignore the fact that someone has killed someone but it's just one piece of evidence among others.
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Post Post #328 (ISO) » Sun Jul 27, 2008 11:55 pm

Post by M4yhem »

Battle Mage wrote:
You should probably consider getting that meta fixed. 0.o

BM
Are you claiming you
are
always disruptive?

Good work on the potatos. I doubt they will all be controlled by number of passes though. That's too easy.
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Post Post #329 (ISO) » Sun Jul 27, 2008 11:58 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

M4yhem wrote:
Battle Mage wrote:
You should probably consider getting that meta fixed. 0.o

BM
Are you claiming you
are
always disruptive?

Good work on the potatos. I doubt they will all be controlled by number of passes though. That's too easy.
not exactly. But my disruptiveness is pretty much a null-tell, as Armlx well knows from his rather extensive experience playing with me.

I'm interested to see where Armlx pelts his potato. In fact, i'm just interested to see whether he practices what he preaches. :P

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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

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Post Post #330 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:01 am

Post by TDC »

TDC wrote:
Battle Mage wrote:Ok, how about if i said i am 99.9% certain that number of tosses has an impact on when the spud blows up?
Just wondering, are you certain that one potato is rigged in that way, or that all (or all that are rigged at least) are?
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Post Post #331 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:03 am

Post by TDC »

Oh, and if you wonder why that is a quote, I had posted it in the wrong thread by accident, the summer heat is making me dizzy..
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Post Post #332 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:03 am

Post by Battle Mage »

TDC wrote:
TDC wrote:
Battle Mage wrote:Ok, how about if i said i am 99.9% certain that number of tosses has an impact on when the spud blows up?
Just wondering, are you certain that one potato is rigged in that way, or that all (or all that are rigged at least) are?
I'm certain that is has some significant impact at some point. I cant say which potatoes, or how many, are affected by this. But i'm guessing a fairly significant proportion are.

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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #333 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:27 am

Post by Luigi Gangsta »

I'm not sure we should be counting that potato kill as a scum tell, or any day one potato kills for the simple reason that i don't think any of us (including power roles and scum) know what sets of the potatoes, so people just throw them to keep themselves safe (which isn't a scum tell either because nobody wants to die).

I think what we can learn from this is that yes they can be caused by number of passes, but i don't think there will be another potato with the same number of passes in its trigger and there is a large chance that they will have different triggers all together. When i got a potato i passed it as fast as possible to DBE for fun, but i think now that someone is dead we should all be more cautious/selective with our potato throwing.

Try not to make scum conclusions on the first day, this will probably become a lot clearer for the town after night one (cops etc). But if you are positive that someone is scum, then make your case and if it carries enough weight we will try to potato them. Please don't pump out FOSs for small reasons and minor scumtells, it is just annoying and anybody, (town or scum) could be guilty of minor scumtells for not watching there backs.
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Post Post #334 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:41 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Luigi Gangsta wrote:I'm not sure we should be counting that potato kill as a scum tell, or any day one potato kills for the simple reason that i don't think any of us (including power roles and scum) know what sets of the potatoes, so people just throw them to keep themselves safe (which isn't a scum tell either because nobody wants to die).
I think the risk from holding a potato is lower than the risk of having one thrown at you.
LuigiGangsta wrote: I think what we can learn from this is that yes they can be caused by number of passes, but i don't think there will be another potato with the same number of passes in its trigger and there is a large chance that they will have different triggers all together. When i got a potato i passed it as fast as possible to DBE for fun, but i think now that someone is dead we should all be more cautious/selective with our potato throwing.
Erm as far as i can tell, you've never had a potato. 0.o
FoS: Luigigangsta


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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #335 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 1:42 am

Post by armlx »

Because drawing attention to myself early on is a GREAT move as scum, amirite? Rolling Eyes
You and I both know thats straight up WIFOM.
people just throw them to keep themselves safe (which isn't a scum tell either because nobody wants to die).
Except it is. Scum are much less willing to endanger their life for the group then town simply based on the fact each scum is more valuable to their team.
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Post Post #336 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 2:09 am

Post by Crazy »

JohnWWells wrote:What if we kill anybody who gets a townie killed? In other words, we throw to the person who threw to Scruffs (q21), then if he turns out innocent, we kill the next person who kills a townie.

Alternatively, we could keep killing lurkers until we have an idea as to what triggers each type of potato...
This is not a good post. The first plan would likely cause a string of townie death, and discourages scum-hunting. The second plan makes it seem like finding out what triggers the potatoes is more important than finding out who the scum are.

Fakevote: JohnWWells
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Post Post #337 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 2:24 am

Post by CoheedCambria09 »

Throw potato to JohnWWells


I wonder what happens when the person who started with the potato gets it back.
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Post Post #338 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 2:51 am

Post by Rally Vincent »

armlx wrote:How about we stop speculating about what caused Skruffs' death and start more speculation on who is scum?
Both are connected. If we know a trigger, then the one triggering a potato on a townie has some explanation to do. Triggering a potato by choice is one of the scumtells that we're looking for.
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Post Post #339 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 2:57 am

Post by kuribo »

Rally Vincent wrote:
armlx wrote:How about we stop speculating about what caused Skruffs' death and start more speculation on who is scum?
Both are connected. If we know a trigger, then the one triggering a potato on a townie has some explanation to do. Triggering a potato by choice is one of the scumtells that we're looking for.
But there's nothing that says the potatoes will be the same every day, or that the triggers will be every day.

So, again, the speculation is pointless.
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Post Post #340 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:00 am

Post by Rally Vincent »

JohnWWells wrote:What if we kill anybody who gets a townie killed? In other words, we throw to the person who threw to Scruffs (q21), then if he turns out innocent, we kill the next person who kills a townie.
Don't like that idea. We (probably) know the trigger for Russet potato. If we get another, we'll finally have a working weapon. The more triggers we know, the more likely we can direct them at scum - and we can choose our suspects by voting. Then there'll be no need for random tossing.

So right now we need to identify the triggers, and we should make plans how to do so.
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Post Post #341 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:03 am

Post by Rally Vincent »

kuribo wrote:
Rally Vincent wrote:
armlx wrote:How about we stop speculating about what caused Skruffs' death and start more speculation on who is scum?
Both are connected. If we know a trigger, then the one triggering a potato on a townie has some explanation to do. Triggering a potato by choice is one of the scumtells that we're looking for.
But there's nothing that says the potatoes will be the same every day, or that the triggers will be every day.

So, again, the speculation is pointless.
We will see that if we get another Russet Potato. They have a name for a reason, until I see otherwise, I think we can assume that the triggers don't differ. Otherwise, this game would just be a bucket of randomness.
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Post Post #342 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:17 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Just a technical suggestion, perhaps we can specify WHICH potato we're throwing, ie, "throwing Russet potato @" rather than the generic "throwing potato @."

I'll make it easier to keep track.
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Post Post #343 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:25 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Rally Vincent wrote:
kuribo wrote:
Rally Vincent wrote:
armlx wrote:How about we stop speculating about what caused Skruffs' death and start more speculation on who is scum?
Both are connected. If we know a trigger, then the one triggering a potato on a townie has some explanation to do.
Triggering a potato by choice is one of the scumtells that we're looking for.
But there's nothing that says the potatoes will be the same every day, or that the triggers will be every day.

So, again, the speculation is pointless.
We will see that if we get another Russet Potato. They have a name for a reason, until I see otherwise, I think we can assume that the triggers don't differ. Otherwise, this game would just be a bucket of randomness.
Actually, i was thinking the same thing. The Mods emphasised that we may not get the same potatoes again, which seems to suggest that the potatoes have constant properties (otherwise, why would the name matter).

What i dont understand is the bit in italics. Can you please explain?

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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #344 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:27 am

Post by Battle Mage »

CoheedCambria09 wrote:
Throw potato to JohnWWells


I wonder what happens when the person who started with the potato gets it back.
Probably nothing? lol
I can see alot of possibilities here, but im not expecting something which is blatantly biased against the guys who start with the potatoes...

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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #345 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:31 am

Post by M4yhem »

I think the potatos will have consistant triggers. The town needs some way to control who dies, to make the game balanced.

Am I the only one who sees JohnW's comments as a newbie mistake rather than scummy?
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Post Post #346 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:35 am

Post by Battle Mage »

armlx wrote:
Because drawing attention to myself early on is a GREAT move as scum, amirite? Rolling Eyes
You and I both know thats straight up WIFOM.
To an extent. But its unrealistic to disregard things as WIFOM and suggest that they have no significance. You are pretty familiar with the way i play. Certainly you know enough to know that i've played like this as town before, yet you, like Skruffs, seem to want to play the meta card. Of course, i've played like this as scum too. But if you take a look at my play across my 85 completed games on site, you should get the overview that in fact, as scum, i tend to lie lower, and ideally, stay out of focus. Doesn't always happen, but i can assure you, thats always my goal.
people just throw them to keep themselves safe (which isn't a scum tell either because nobody wants to die).
Except it is. Scum are much less willing to endanger their life for the group then town simply based on the fact each scum is more valuable to their team.
I see this argument put forward by alot of older players, and it never ceases to irritate me. I dont see how you possibly hope to gauge how much people want to live. I tend to find i hate dying in any games. As scum, because it means the team is a man down. As town because it means the town no longer benefits from my infinite wisdom, and quite possibly that we've wasted a lynch.

But the major flaw in this argument is that we dont know how these potatoes work. How the hell can you conclude that people who throw potatoes quickly are more likely to be scum, when we have no real evidence to suggest that holding onto a potato is dangerous!? Frankly, if i was scum, i'd be just as concerned about throwing a potato as holding it, because in throwing a potato, you draw more attention to yourself, and can often invoke OMGUS, not only leaving you with the potato at the end of the day, but with the risk that you will die as a result of the 'No. of tosses' rule we
know
exists.

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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #347 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:36 am

Post by Battle Mage »

M4yhem wrote: Am I the only one who sees JohnW's comments as a newbie mistake rather than scummy?
I'm not sure atm.

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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #348 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 4:10 am

Post by Rally Vincent »

Battle Mage wrote: What i dont understand is the bit in italics. Can you please explain?

BM
Sure. If someone blows off a potato with a known or at least assumed trigger on purpose, he'd better have a good reason.
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Post Post #349 (ISO) » Mon Jul 28, 2008 4:22 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Rally Vincent wrote:
Battle Mage wrote: What i dont understand is the bit in italics. Can you please explain?

BM
Sure. If someone blows off a potato with a known or at least assumed trigger on purpose, he'd better have a good reason.
Yah, umm, i'd like to think someone has a good reason to 'blow off' a potato regardless... 0.o
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%

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