Guns & Roses IV [Game Over]

[Something_Smart]

Also, what makes you think that scum would only choose at least two N1 guns if they thought town would pick < 4 guns and then massclaim? What if they just wanted two N1 guns because they thought it was optimal?

[Something_Smart]

Mass claiming here hurts town tremendously and is of massive benefit to scum. This has been clearly explained by multiple people and yet knightmare is still trying to push for it to happen or arguing that it would be of benefit to town, which at this point I think has to be disingenuous.

Right, because all people are perfectly rational, confirmation bias doesn't exist, and all arguments are perfectly airtight.

[Knightmare491]

a town! eyestott would know that the chances of that are almost zero.

How is eyestott's ability to grasp the logic of the situation dependent on his alignment?

As town he thinks about if such a thing is actually possible, as scum he just slaps on anything to justify his scum read.

[farside22]

I don't think it's as bad as I initially thought, since previous iterations do show there's never been more than one N1 gun, but the risk is still there so idk. Giving scum guaranteed killshots is still pretty bad for the slightly better lynchpool odds.

I still think it is best to wait at least one game day. See what transpires into day 2 before mass claiming. Less players in the game, having town gun hide out in the game and scum needs to scramble who to kill.
Any n1 gunmen who shot and no one dies could claim then.

[Something_Smart]

As town he thinks about if such a thing is actually possible, as scum he just slaps on anything to justify his scum read.

And this is justified by what prior experience with him?

[Knightmare491]

As town he thinks about if such a thing is actually possible, as scum he just slaps on anything to justify his scum read.

And this is justified by what prior experience with him?

Never played with him, it's just a scum tell of sorts.

[Something_Smart]

What experience is it based on? Do you play on another site?

[Knightmare491]

Yes, used to. 5 years ago

[Something_Smart]

Because for the record, talking about people in general rather than eyestott in particular, I disagree with both halves. There are plenty of people who posit things as town without considering if they make sense. And there are also plenty of people who think through what they say as scum, sometimes more carefully than they do as town.

[Knightmare491]

I agree with the second bit. Scum are over cautious about what they post and most probably try to filter their posts as much as possible.
The first part tho, I think you're sort of misunderstanding what I meant.

I struggle to think that, as town! eyestott comes to the conclusion that I am scum and I planned for all this.
I think it is much more likely from scum because they don't think such a thing through.

What do you think about him being hesitant to vote me?

[eyestott]

I have very little faith in my own scumhunting abilities, probably because I’ve only recently started playing mafia again and was not very good when I last played. And since I’ve started playing, I haven’t exactly been the most accurate with my reads. So I will admit that I was hesitant to vote you. But that’s comes from a place of feelings of inadequacy, not scum.

[Albert B. Rampage]

DonCorleone! Knightmare seems to be pushing the massclaim strategy on the basis that scum don't usually pick N1 guns. He went back and established only 1 N1 gun was picked in the previous iterations. Why do you think he's still scum openly pushing what he thinks is an anti-town strategy?

If Knightmare is scum, I don't think he pushes this strategy to take advantage of it, I think he pushes it to either get townread by pushing something strongly opinionated, or uses this as a way to make content.

Knight is town. Scum can't be that crazy lol.

[Something_Smart]

I think it is much more likely from scum because they don't think such a thing through.

Why do you think town are more likely to think it through than scum? People say things that don't make sense and jump to conclusions all the time, and most of the time, they're doing it in good faith, not to be deceptive.

[farside22]

@lilith: i am now going suspicious of SS

[SirCakez]

Still catching up but want to address these

Sure SC. I'll be your buttercup.

Your attack on SS reads fabricated. You are basically taking a point on SS and creating a false narrative

S_S just reads off. Like he's trying to defuse pressure but not too obviously.

What part of 77 or 100 isn't obvious in its intent to defuse pressure?

It's like kinda AtE, kinda "haha wagon on me"
No outright "why am I being wagoned?"

now lets read SS as a take away.

Spoiler:

sadly I think you may have rolled scum my friend

Sure, 3/13 chance from your POV.

I really can't imagine how you already have a read on my zero game-relevant posts that's much different from that.

Lilith, I have a bad feeling that you don't know me as well as you think you do.

There's definitely some E in there, the E being mild frustration. But there's no A to it.

Seems to me that it was obvious enough that I wanted to hear your reasoning, but I guess I can be more explicit. What did you not like about me circa 59?

Also, you didn't say I was subtly wanting to know why I was being wagoned. You said I was subtly trying to defuse the wagon. Those are two different things, and both of those quotes outright say "your read on me is not justified." Even if I wasn't overtly trying to UNDERSTAND the wagon, I was overtly trying to prevent it.

There was no A at all in the post that were reference.
Nothing since then is really showing why you continue you read on the spot. You just want to egg on something that is not there and ride it out.
No where do I see anything other then antagonizing a player to react while not scum hunting.

77 and 100 both read as AtE to me given that Lilith, S_S and I are friends. Maybe not to you. I don't know if AtE is the best term to describe it but I don't know how else to.

Your vote is looking lonely and unused there, eyestort. Do you fancy joining me on cakez? He essentially sheeped someone else who gut read Something_Smart as scum without giving any reasons for it.

How was I sheeping on this? I formulated my own read on S_S, I didn't vote him just because lilith did.

[farside22]

Any other reads you have ao far cakez?

[SirCakez]

It was gut earlier. But it has solidified since.

What caused the read to solidify, SirCakez? How would you expect Something_Smart to react to the votes on him if his alignment were town? I think his 77 was indirectly asking you how you had a read on his mostly contentless posts thus far.

It was from tone. His weird reaction to me solidified it.

Is this aimed at me? I don't understand what you're saying.

I am saying that there's a discrepancy between this post:

S_S just reads off. Like he's trying to defuse pressure but not too obviously.

Where you said that I'm being subtle about trying to prevent people from voting me, and this one:

What part of 77 or 100 isn't obvious in its intent to defuse pressure?

It's like kinda AtE, kinda "haha wagon on me"
No outright "why am I being wagoned?"

Where you suggested that to be more blunt I could have asked why people were voting me-- but asking WHY they were voting me isn't the same as asking them to STOP voting me. My posts were very clear in their intent to get people to STOP voting me, which is what you originally claimed I was not being obvious about.

I think you and I have different definitions of obvious

VOTE: eyestott
I'll come back to S_S later. Eye's reactions and vote movements have been bad.

honestly I don't care about the gun/rose "optimal" massclaim mechanics stuff. I'm just here to scumhunt. I do think massclaim now is stupid. I don't think knightmare being in favor necessarily indicates scum.
Why is ABR scum, farside? I've been wondering about him.

[SirCakez]

I have a lot of stuff going on rn so I plan to return to this game and look at other players, farside.
Lilith town has solidified.
DonCorleone is a town lean.

I'm suspicious of the players who have been doing more setup solving then scumhunting, like Paragon and knightmare.

[Something_Smart]

What do you think about him being hesitant to vote me?

I wouldn't even say he was hesitant to vote you. But I do think that him agreeing that he was hesitant to vote you rather than being defensive about it was towny.

[votato]

I agree that knightmare is probably town and the push on him is probably scummy going for lhf. I am inclined to think that people who continue to talk about the massclaim instead of gamesolving are a bit scummy.

[Paragon]

I have more solving than setup-spec in my ISO, Cakez! I implore you to look again.

What about Something_Smart's reaction to you was weird? Is your solidified read beyond what you explained in 77?

[SirCakez]

I feel like I'm going in circles talking about this S_S read and I'd like to move on

[Paragon]

Hmm, alright.

[Something_Smart]

I think you and I have different definitions of obvious

Or more likely we have different opinions about what is obvious from what I said.

Obviously

It's likely that we're both biased here anyway.

It's a relatively minor issue and so we can drop it.

[Something_Smart]

I feel like I'm going in circles talking about this S_S read and I'd like to move on