Do you think the killing of Adel was a bad play from a vig's perspective?BillyTwilight wrote:Secondly, I'm not a big believer in a vig being a huge help to town anyway. If we do have a vig, I'd much prefer they avoid making kills at night.
Yes you can sleep with my wife for a million dollars.BillyTwilight wrote:Oh, and I have an interesting proposition that I might ask the rest of you about tomorrow.
Scratch that. I misread your post #706. In my mind I saw, "Billy Twilight, Wanna tryna narrow down who the vig might be?" My apologies.cicero wrote:I did?Billy Twilight wrote:cicero asked me to narrow that group of players down to the one I most likely thought was the vig.
Kison: That is all there is to it. I'm sure you do think that its unconvincing, but I find every other case weaker. I think my 3 man scumteam has a greater chance of having more scum in it than any other I've seen.Kison wrote:Oman, after your weekend vacation... I'm curious as to whether or not there's more to your Cicero case than what you presented, and if not, whether or not you still think he's scum. I found your case to be pretty unconvincing.
1) Jitsu is stable at number one at 41%Jitsu wrote: Would everyone be willing to share top 3's at this point?
I disagree that your implication that the potential Vig is more harm to us than good. I was just in Vollkan's game where the Vig largely won us the game. Patrick missed several times with his kills, but when he targeted the NK immune GF, it failed, and basically gave us a scum, plus the fact that he survived to endgame, gave the town two chances to hit the final scum. Vigs can win games, and given that we are not in a great place right now, we might very well need the Vig, especially since there hasn't really been a lot of content to debate today. If the discussion doesn't pick up, traditional scumhunting may be tough.BillyTwilight wrote:Meh. I'm completely intrigued by your take on this, Jitsu. Especially the fact that you're latching on to the vig side of things instead of the SK side of things. I don't think there is anything in the game that can differentiate one from the other, so I would make the argument that pointing out potential SK suspects would give mafia a good target to go after that helps town.
Secondly, I'm not a big believer in a vig being a huge help to town anyway. If we do have a vig, I'd much prefer they avoid making kills at night. We need this game to go as long as possible. Any misfires from an overzealous vig could put us even further behind the eight ball. If there is a vig in the game and he/she happens to be a forced vig I want them out of the game ASAP. The chances of a vig saving us are very slim, and if we let the game get to a point where we need a vig to save us then we probably deserve to lose anyway.
What exactly about me pointing this out do you find to be scummy? You've recently stated that I've jumped to the top of your scumlist over shaft.ed. It looks to me like you are trying to get as far away from a crappy case on shaft.ed as quickly as possible, especially considering no one in the game really seems to be buying your "preview vs. send" theories.
Already given my thoughts on this aboveJitsu wrote:Several people in the game pegged Adel as potential scum, so she wasn't a bad target, and her death last night as opposed to today may have saved the town from talking all day about her and really getting down the wrong track.
Whoa, what? I've NEVER said that I want to lynch a vig. You again are completely ignoring the SK possibility here. I find that the best way to win a game of mafia is to identify and catalogue everyone in the game as much as possible. The fewer wildcards you have the harder it is for scum to hide. I saw a piece of relevant information that might point out a potentially anti-town faction, or at least help us clarify who and what wrt the players involved. Jitsu, if there is an SK and he/she is one of the players I mentioned above, would you not agree that it's very important that I point that out?We know that there are 2-3 mafia, and there is strong evidence of a Vig/SK. Given that the town seems to have *at least* 2 power roles (and possibly as many as 5), I tend to doubt that we only have 2 scum. If we have a Vig, the ratio right now is likely to be 6 town:3 mafia (or maybe 5 town:3 mafia:1 independent). If we mislynch the Vig today and the mafia kill succeeds, we are almost certainly in LYLO then. Of course, you are right that if we mislynch today and don't hit the Vig, that we would be in a very bad place (the scum could win tonight if the Vig hits town and the Mafia kill succeeds).
If we have an SK instead, then the choice is a tough one, but it would be understandable to go after an SK to avoid unpleasant endgame scenarios (we, the town in Vollkan's game, came to exactly this conclusion when we lynched Guardian, who claimed SK).
I understand why you want to lengthen the game, but identifying and lynching a (possibly forced) vig seems wrong when we should be identifying and lynching the scum instead. If the town collectively agrees that we should out the vig and lynch him, that's a different matter, but I don't like how you seem to have taken the choice to expose the vig into your own hands here.
Post 696 is is EQUIVOCALLY NOT an attack against me, and that you are trying to spin it as such is telling. The tone, the content, all point to you reprimanding me for what you think is bad play. There is NO HINT in that post that you find me scummy because of my play. As people start to question you on your shaft.ed stance you begin to distance away from that stance by pointing more at me, first in post #705, then in post #713, culminating in your vote of me above.. Post #713 is the first post where you actually imply that my "reasoning out who the vig might be" as scummy. You've yet to actually explain to me why you think my points are scummy. You've made a leap from originally implying that my play was bad play for town but not inherently scummy, to scummy play from your top mafia suspect. Please explain this thought progression and how you came to it. Furthermore, this thought progression coincides with you trying to get off of the shaft.ed attack while saving as much face as possible. I don't think the two are unconnected. Players were starting to question you for your stance on shaft.ed, and the harder the questions came the more you backed off and started pointing instead at me.I also don't like how you've insinuated here that I am attacking you to distance myself from my Shaft.ed debacle. If you look back and reread the thread, you'll see that I attacked you in 696, well before things started going bad with my attack on Shaft.ed.
You basically apologized earlier in this post for your "shortsightedness" wrt shaft.ed. Yet you still have him as your second most likely scum. Please explain; if you have more misgivings about shaft.ed than the "Preview/Send" debacle, enough so that he is still your second highest suspect, why haven't you been focusing on those other things as well in your recent back and forth with him. Very rare to see a player basically admit a mistake about another player in a post and in that same post still have him listed as high on his scumlist as you do with shaft.ed.Vote: BillyTwilight
To answer Fonz's question, my top 3 right now are BillyTwilight and Shaft.ed, with Oman as a distant third. I'm also kind of disappointed that Erg0 and Vollkan haven't contributed more content.
Jitsu's clearly reaching here, but also, that list you made only makes sense for town vigs; SKs aren't any more likely to take out people they've expressed suspicion of (except in so far as they might want to claim vig). So, unless someone was terrified of the might of Adel's omgus, then it doesn't actually help narrow down sk possibilities. AT ALL.BillyTwilight wrote: Whoa, what? I've NEVER said that I want to lynch a vig. You again are completely ignoring the SK possibility here. I find that the best way to win a game of mafia is to identify and catalogue everyone in the game as much as possible. The fewer wildcards you have the harder it is for scum to hide. I saw a piece of relevant information that might point out a potentially anti-town faction, or at least help us clarify who and what wrt the players involved. Jitsu, if there is an SK and he/she is one of the players I mentioned above, would you not agree that it's very important that I point that out?
Post 696 is is EQUIVOCALLY NOT an attack against me, and that you are trying to spin it as such is telling. [/quote]I also don't like how you've insinuated here that I am attacking you to distance myself from my Shaft.ed debacle. If you look back and reread the thread, you'll see that I attacked you in 696, well before things started going bad with my attack on Shaft.ed.
Scolding you for doing something anti-town... yeah, that's an attack.The tone, the content, all point to you reprimanding me for what you think is bad play. There is NO HINT in that post that you find me scummy because of my play.
I disagree. I think a lot of players playing as a SK would try to kill mafia in the early game, as more often than not town is lynched. A SK has to keep the numbers even. Furthermore, a SK in the day phase needs to look like a good townie, which means good scumhunting. I don't think it beyond reason to believe that a SK might actually point out who they really think are mafia in the day phase, and then might actually kill a person they really think are mafia in the night phase. It would take a lot of self control for an SK to feel that a player is mafia in the day phase, completely ignore their play, and then kill them at night, all at the same time managing to maintain a good day-image. The main point I was trying to make was that if we have a Vig claim down the line I am more likely to believe it from someone inside the group of players I mentioned and less likely to believe from outside that group, for the very reasons above. A SK could be trying to be crafty to keep his/her distance away from his'her nightkills; I think a Vig would be more likely to kill someone that they had expressed much suspicion of throughout the day.The Fonz wrote:Jitsu's clearly reaching here, but also, that list you made only makes sense for town vigs; SKs aren't any more likely to take out people they've expressed suspicion of (except in so far as they might want to claim vig). So, unless someone was terrified of the might of Adel's omgus, then it doesn't actually help narrow down sk possibilities. AT ALL.BillyTwilight wrote: Whoa, what? I've NEVER said that I want to lynch a vig. You again are completely ignoring the SK possibility here. I find that the best way to win a game of mafia is to identify and catalogue everyone in the game as much as possible. The fewer wildcards you have the harder it is for scum to hide. I saw a piece of relevant information that might point out a potentially anti-town faction, or at least help us clarify who and what wrt the players involved. Jitsu, if there is an SK and he/she is one of the players I mentioned above, would you not agree that it's very important that I point that out?
Clarify what you consider an attack.Actually, I read it as one. So, uh, yeah.Post 696 is is EQUIVOCALLY NOT an attack against me, and that you are trying to spin it as such is telling.I also don't like how you've insinuated here that I am attacking you to distance myself from my Shaft.ed debacle. If you look back and reread the thread, you'll see that I attacked you in 696, well before things started going bad with my attack on Shaft.ed.
I consider attacking a player as calling into question their alignment. Rebuking a player for bad play, even anti-town play, doesn't fall into this if there is no mention of finding the "bad" player scummy because of it. Jitsu's "attack" against me read like so many newbie-game IC comments, where the IC is trying to explain a principle and how a newbie's play was "bad", but the IC doesn't find the newbie to be more likely scum because of his "bad" play; he's merely pointing out what to avoid doing from then on. I'd like for you (Fonzy) to look over post #696 and explain to me where Jitsu looks like he's calling my alignment into question. I'd argue just the opposite. His post makes the implicit assumption that I am town by going down the logic path of "why mention something in the thread that mafia might not have thought about yet? You might be stupidly leading them into something that could give them an advantage."Scolding you for doing something anti-town... yeah, that's an attack.The tone, the content, all point to you reprimanding me for what you think is bad play. There is NO HINT in that post that you find me scummy because of my play.
BT does make a good point though: Jitsu, 'may not have realised-gate' aside, what do you think of shaft.ed's play?
Yes, but an SK in the day phase has also got to avoid appearing too big a threat to scum, so as not to get crosskilled.BillyTwilight wrote:I disagree. I think a lot of players playing as a SK would try to kill mafia in the early game, as more often than not town is lynched. A SK has to keep the numbers even. Furthermore, a SK in the day phase needs to look like a good townie, which means good scumhunting. I don't think it beyond reason to believe that a SK might actually point out who they really think are mafia in the day phase, and then might actually kill a person they really think are mafia in the night phase. It would take a lot of self control for an SK to feel that a player is mafia in the day phase, completely ignore their play, and then kill them at night, all at the same time managing to maintain a good day-image. The main point I was trying to make was that if we have a Vig claim down the line I am more likely to believe it from someone inside the group of players I mentioned and less likely to believe from outside that group, for the very reasons above. A SK could be trying to be crafty to keep his/her distance away from his'her nightkills; I think a Vig would be more likely to kill someone that they had expressed much suspicion of throughout the day.The Fonz wrote:Jitsu's clearly reaching here, but also, that list you made only makes sense for town vigs; SKs aren't any more likely to take out people they've expressed suspicion of (except in so far as they might want to claim vig). So, unless someone was terrified of the might of Adel's omgus, then it doesn't actually help narrow down sk possibilities. AT ALL.BillyTwilight wrote: Whoa, what? I've NEVER said that I want to lynch a vig. You again are completely ignoring the SK possibility here. I find that the best way to win a game of mafia is to identify and catalogue everyone in the game as much as possible. The fewer wildcards you have the harder it is for scum to hide. I saw a piece of relevant information that might point out a potentially anti-town faction, or at least help us clarify who and what wrt the players involved. Jitsu, if there is an SK and he/she is one of the players I mentioned above, would you not agree that it's very important that I point that out?
Clarify what you consider an attack.[/quote]Actually, I read it as one. So, uh, yeah.[quote[Post 696 is is EQUIVOCALLY NOT an attack against me, and that you are trying to spin it as such is telling.I also don't like how you've insinuated here that I am attacking you to distance myself from my Shaft.ed debacle. If you look back and reread the thread, you'll see that I attacked you in 696, well before things started going bad with my attack on Shaft.ed.
The list was of where I thought a Vig/SK might come from. If I had only reason to believe that Adel's death was via vigging then I would have been more tactful in my approach. And yes, I'm agreeing with you to a certain extent. If you'll notice in my original post I plainly stated that if Adel's death was via SK then the SK might or might not be from that group of people. I read your argument to mean that you felt there was no chance that the SK would be in that group of people ("So, unless someone was terrified of the might of Adel's omgus, then it doesn't actually help narrow down sk possibilities. AT ALL.") I don't believe that. I believe that it gives us a piece of the puzzle, nothing concrete, but certainly something to think about if we decide there is an SK in the game and we need to lynch them. And I think that mentioning it is a good thing. I'm a big believer in getting as much info on the table as possible; really the only times I think I would keep completely quiet about something is if I suspect a player of being a cop or a doc.The Fonz wrote:Yes, but an SK in the day phase has also got to avoid appearing too big a threat to scum, so as not to get crosskilled.
Your last two sentences just read like you're agreeing with me, actually. But seriously: why would a town player NEED to give a list of people he would believe a vig claim from? That can only help the scum.
Yes, but your ignoring the rest of his tone. Of course you don't have to say "And I think this makes him scummy" at the end of every "attack" to make your point, but your tone from the rest of the post will certainly send that exact message. I don't get that tone from his post; in fact, as I argued above, I get the tone that he is implying he feels I am town from that post.Any post where a player casts doubts or aspersions over another's behaviour. To keep this post short, i've omitted the end of the quote, but the answer to that is the same: Jitsu does not need to append 'AND-I-THINK-THIS-MIGHT-MAKE-HIM-SCUM' to the end of each of his statements, elementary-school like, for it to be an attack.
). Need to muster up strength to read in isolation. 
[quote="shaft.ed]Erg0 wrote:Again, I don't think that he was specifically trying to force me to vote- I just think that his Fonz vote was completely ineffectual at that point. If I had to guess the reason, he may have been hoping to avoid being on a townie wagon at the end of the day - if two people had voted for CKD in the meantime then he wouldn't have had to do anything at the end of the day.
Erg0 wrote:Again, I don't think that he was specifically trying to force me to vote- I just think that his Fonz vote was completely ineffectual at that point. If I had to guess the reason, he may have been hoping to avoid being on a townie wagon at the end of the day - if two people had voted for CKD in the meantime then he wouldn't have had to do anything at the end of the day.
See if you can spot the difference.shaft.ed wrote:I see Erg0 is back to his theory that I was trying to "make him" vote, and that I was avoiding being on a townie lynch wagon. I don't see either of these points as valid.
Just one thing- I don't think, and have never said, vollkan's big posts indicate he might be scum. I said I dislike them, and feel they can be used to obfuscate the issue sometimes. I'm fully aware that it's his playstyle- however, I feel if town, it is beneficial to be more concise, and I find LOATP antitown in general. So I don't find vollkan any scummier than his meta in general, which I am inclined towards distrusting. However, we had far better options yesterday than the policy lynch (not to mention, I'm in a minority in disliking vollkan's style, so it wouldn't have worked anyhow).Kison wrote:
?) The Fonz : Accuses Shaft.ed of Lurking in Plain Sight. Not sure I agree with this. Would rather lynch Adel than CKD, but gives no reason as to why. Later states it's because she changed her playstyle after being attacked for being too conservative. Attacks Cicero for voting him before he answers his question and before he comes back, and for voting him for being V/LA. Bad feeling from Vollkan due to bulky PBPA's. Shaft.ed remains his #1 at the end of day one, but he is willing to lynch Vollkan, BT, Adel, or Cicero in exchange. I'm not finding a whole lot that sheds light on this guy one way or another. His Day One posting was very sporadic. Again, very strongly disagree with his belief that Vollkan's big monstrous posts indicate he may be scum - so not sure why he would be willing to default lynch him over someone else on that alone(unless I missed something).
I dislike this approach. Best case we find an SK, worst case we unearth a vig. However, we won't know when we find them which they are. So the fact remains that this has little advantage.BillyTwilight wrote: Things I'm looking for:
1.) Adel-NK was bad for scum. They could really have used her for a mislynch today or later in the game. Going to look carefully at those throwing around suspicion of Adel, especially toward the end of day 1. Also, the vig/SK probably posted against Adel as well.
I find this to be inaccurate in a game full of good players who will be confident in themselves.BT wrote:2.) This game is VERY difficult for me to interpret. Looking for players who seem more confident in there assertions that I feel town should really be at this point in the game. Scum are more likely to have a "game-plan" of sorts, and that should show somewhat in their posts.
This is...falsified. People were not exactly "taking sides" but trying to get a lynch. I feel several votes were diluted because of this.BT wrote:CKD and cicero were the only players who were actually voting Adel at deadline. Very interesting considering players were supposedly "taking sides" between Adel and CKD. On quick readthrough, those expressing suspicion of Adel towards the end of the day:
Fonz, Oman, shaft.ed, volkan, plus cicero, obviously.
I don't understand this. I'm your best bet for what? Mafia, you say? I don't really understand the criteria you're using eitherBT wrote:Oman, shaft.ed, and volkan were much less forward about finding Adel scummy, but allowed for suspicion of Adel to be in their play and something they could return to later.
I'd say there is probably at least one mafioso in the above group. Right now my bet is Oman. I'll give a more thorough analysis of each of these players later this weekend/early next week.
You are the one I have to reevalutate because you're actually posting now. I'd like to let you know you're #3 in my group, not #1 so switching you out is no big thing for me.BT wrote:Oman, can you reiterate why you think I'm scum?
I feel there isn't much there. There is what I said. And so if that isn't enough for some people (as Kison says) than that isn't my fault, really. Its the most I've got and if I find more I'll jump on it.BT wrote: Looking through your play you seem to be confident in other players scuminess (see cicero as well) but unable to back it up when push comes to shove.
This is not good speculation. If we have a vollkan as a vig I want to keep him alive, because, well, I see vollkan has good vig skills (Friends and Enemies).BT wrote:As a side note, if we have a Vig they are probably in the above list. I don't see a Vig killing someone (Adel) that they hadn't expressed suspicion of before. Much less confident if a SK killed Adel; they might or might not have expressed suspicion of her at any point day 1.
Indeed. I have little to say about this but I think you're incorrect and OMGUSing.BT wrote:Cicero, you asked me which of volkan/Oman I would find scummiest, my answer right now is Oman. Volkan's player analysis from the end of day 1 were confused enough that I feel he is probably town in the same boat I'm in. Again, a more careful read will help me understand this better, but I don't have time this evening.
