Open 80 - Double Day Mafia (Game Over!)

[Firestarter]

EBWOP...

@Joubert, Bogre [or replacement}, Blacknight...

Whats your overview of K7's behaviour?
Who is your top 3 picks for scum?
_____________________________________________________

@CFR...
I have suspects, those on the Forbidden lynch...
I intend to gain info from them all, but at this moment, K7 is looking real good for me at this time..

Also @ CFR...
Whats your overview of K7's behaviour?
Who is your top 3 picks for scum?

Just in case you missed it first time around....
Thanks for the vote, BTW...

Right after Ive asked all players to give their 3 picks as scum and before they did!!!... Strange...

And you never did say why?
Voting me while not your top suspect, and indeed while only 1 vote is on me, is really suspicious, you know that?

I'd like to think your not trying to start a BW on the back of someone else's argument, considering the main proponent of that, armlx, has not indicated where he stands at this moment after the mountainous amount of questions Ive answered...

*Afterthought...

armlx & mountainous in the same sentence... Who'd have thought it!!

YOU AND ME BABY AIN'T NOTHING BUT MAMMALS

killa seven - 4 (TheSweatpantsNinja, Firestarter, Knight of Cydonia, SpyreX)
FaerieLord - 2 (Manito, Corinthian)
Manito - 2 (FaerieLord, LlamaFluff)
Firestarter - 2 (armlx, CF Riot)
armlx - 1 (LaptopGun)
LaptopGun - 1 (Bogre)

Not Voting - Joubert, killa seven, BlckKnght

15, 8.

-Mod

[LlamaFluff]

[

@Llamafluff...

Ive seen your case on Corin, and I agree with alot of it, but primarily at this moment, my focus is on K7...
Whats your overview of K7's behaviour?

I kinda appreciate KoC's PBPA of K7, it made the big whirlwind of stuff a little easier to understand key points of. While there are some good points by KoC here such as post 8 and 14. There are irrelevant posts used as evidence (4-7) and some where K7 seemed to get misinterpreted like 12.

Now my main fear of voting K7 is the intereactions with him and TSN. This read as lost townie to me, as he seemed to have zero idea what was going on. Scum tends to be more informed about what is happening at any given point in the game, its just something that comes up again and again for me.

Later in the day though he now looks scummier as he is taking an OMGUS stance towards KoC, who was not mentioned in his other posts. While I still hold KoC as a decent lynch, the fact that he ignored quite a few bickering posts inbetween us make me feel that im being played here. This is from the fact that when FL went after my suspect and my suspects voted her I defended, now K7 is doing and having something similar happen, his choice of KoC sits poorly with me and I get that bad vibe.

For what FS has been saying, im not sure if its just that I dont read your case style well enough, but I couldnt pinpoint a whole lot more then lurking. Maybe the ongoing struggle with armlx hurts my reading of your cases a bit but I dont understand them quite as clearly. Ironically I normally hate PBPA cases like KoC, so few posts makes it bareable in this case.

I still favor a Corin and Manito lynch to K7 hands down, and would hammer either of those two without second thoughts. KoC is a close one, and who votes where would be very dependant on a decision. To make it short, K7 is a good lynch, not a great lynch, but a good lynch.

My few things to K7 would be

1) Why arent you voting?
2) Can you produce a LoS?
3) What are your views on FL, FS and Manito, the other multivote wagons?

[LaptopGun]

A lot of people have FS on their lists, but Arm is the only one voting him. He seems to be a consistant #2 for everybody. I'm up for a FS wagon if it will gain some steam.

Vote: Firestarter

I am not sure that is the best way to go about things. If armlx is mafia, then he is most likely voting a townie. He is certainly a usual suspect, but becareful just going for the "me too" vote. Mislynches can be started by a perfectly honest townie picking up on stuff.

More stuff to come.

[LaptopGun]

koc attacking me for lurking while his buddy FL is layin low going unnoticed is severly noted.

FL is far from going unnoticed.... If you are paying attention, you'd know that.
Why dont you bother actually doing something then... eh?

I disagree. A lot of discussion has been focused on other people and FL isn't really taking a lead in advancing alternate theories (maybe because he has been hounded). He's just there and hasn't disturbed what else is going on.

Point taken.

I don't trust armlx and killa 7. I think they have both been lurking far too much. Both of course have in literally the last couple days have taken pains to be more active and (mostly armlx) helpful. armlx was certainly quicker to respond (did killa really ever respond directly to me?)

My random musings:
Something I have learned is my votes to push the lurkers was followed by them showing up. There appears to be no immediate cause and effect between my vote and killa's return. But Armlx jumped right back. Killa never really responded to me either. Armlx did. One felt I was worth talking to

Borge vote without reason: Is he one of the mafia acting as a proxy for one of his partners? That is, lay a vote on me and hope a counter wagon pops up? I know no logic really makes it stand out, but that sort of does have the effect of not tieing Borge to the wagon either. There is another factor: use the vote to try to scare me away. I have been a bit sheepish and have looked pretty bizarre to begin with. Perhaps the thinking is I'll run and hide so I don't bring a lot of attention or give people openings to attack me. If this were true, it would indicate I was right with at least one of my suspects recently.

Armlx, Killa, FL, and Llama's Trifecta of KoC Corin Manito. With Borge. That's a lot to wade through.

I'll be back later with more (argh I hate getting interrupted).

[LaptopGun]

Unfortunately I don't see any direct connections between these suspects and Borge. I didn't notice anybody buddy up or distance away from him to begin with. Looking at this list I do see lurkers with potential frontmen/hide in plain sight guys. You know, the active mafia . Potentially Manito or KoC.

This was just me trying to reconcile what I've been thinking recently.

FOS Killa, FL, KoC, Corin, Manito, and Borge

I am keeping my vote right where it is because I see no reason to change it from one of my suspects.

[armlx]

You say you've seen K7 do this elsewhere? It means jackshit to me atm...
Whats your stance on K7 right now, considering the case on him..
One more question..
Its obvious Im one of your targets...
But who's next in line for you?

I've seen K7 just do a bunch of random stuff in almost every game he is in, but is semi-logically random. I'd rather wait on the lynch till we can see if he is linked to scum and what not, which has been the most consistant scum tell for him in my reading.

As for the second thing, see my last post to CF Riot.

[Knight of Cydonia]

So... his meta is to be completely random, so because he's been acting very scummy, he's not random enough "according to his meta" [/scorn] to be scum here?

[Firestarter]

__________________________________

@CFR...

Whats your overview of K7's behaviour?
Who is your top 3 picks for scum?
__________________________________

@Manito..

Whats your overview of K7's behaviour?
Who is your top 3 picks for scum?
__________________________________

@Corinthian..

Whats your overview of K7's behaviour?
Who is your top 3 picks for scum?
__________________________________

@Joubert, Bogre [or replacement}, Blacknight...

Whats your overview of K7's behaviour?
Who is your top 3 picks for scum?
_____________________________________________________

[somestrangeflea]

Searching for a replacement for Bogre.
Prod still out on BlckKnght

[FaerieLord]

FL I know you've been answering the same questions over and over, but I really really don't ever remember seeing an answer for this one. I know what other people have said it was about, but you never say they're right or defend yourself. If you have and I'm simply missing it please link me to that post or give me the post number, I'll look it up.

What KoC said is basically true. I was going to lynch Forbiddan even though I thought she was town. I'm not going to bother going through the reasoning again.

I am not sure that is the best way to go about things. If armlx is mafia, then he is most likely voting a townie.

No

So... his meta is to be completely random, so because he's been acting very scummy, he's not random enough "according to his meta" [/scorn] to be scum here?

It is pretty much just that. Which is why I'd rather have another lynch today rather than K7, since it won't provide us with anything new.

So all that considered, I would not vote K7 today. Maybe firestarter, but I'm still not entirely convinced either

[CF Riot]

I'm just heading out the door so no time for real post, (haven't even read this whole page yet) but I'd like to respond to FS: I didn't see the post you made before mine, I was in the reply box for a while because I was doing things away from the computer. I promise to answer your questions in my very next post but it may or may not be today because I'm going to see Dark Knight tonight.

[LaptopGun]

I am not sure that is the best way to go about things. If armlx is mafia, then he is most likely voting a townie.

No

Why not? I don't see a real opportunity for one partner to be busing another here. Moreover, at this stage of the game when random votes are gone, one mafia player is not normally going to stick his vote on a partner. Some calculated gambit, trap, or the aforementioned busing are not happening every third post for crying out loud! I am going by probability here.

Or are you going to say most mafia players don't vote very often to begin with to try to figure this stuff out?

[Joubert]

Simple... My overview over K7's behavior is that he uses very bad grammar and syntax, and that he's quite nonchalant about the game, with a few insignificant posts scattered through and witty remarks...

[killa seven]

speaking of lurkers..

[SpyreX]

I am not sure that is the best way to go about things. If armlx is mafia, then he is most likely voting a townie.

The problem is you're assuming arm is mafia. Town or mafia, he could be voting for town or mafia. Your statement implies two heavy assumptions that are hard to make at this juncture.

[LlamaFluff]

speaking of lurkers..

Well Im not happy saying it, but I agree. K7 is picking up the lurker vote when its not just him lurking. We have K7/Corin (who should be getting the votes)/Bogre/Joubert who really havent added anything of substance to this game.

@Everyone - Which of those four would you prefer lynching?

If it wasnt obvious enough I want Corin gone

[armlx]

LTG, what do you think of my interaction with Firestarter's reflection upon Firestarter's alignment outside of my own?

[CF Riot]

K7 looked scummy to me day one. For the first few posts between him and Forbid, K7 looked much worse in my eyes. However after K7 stopped posting, Forbid kept it up and made herself look worse and worse with every one. In the end, it was hard to ignore the scumminess coming from her, so I switched my vote, though I still suspected K7. Today, I returned with that same suspicion, but the lurking through the first half of the day didn't give me a real case to build. Recent posts have been better, but still scummy about half of the time. I'm getting a scum read, but it's a cloudy one. I also suspect FS and KoC, and both of them are pushing the K7 vote. This makes me reluctant to vote K7. On top of all this, I feel like if I were wrong about K7, I wouldn't learn much from his role post-lynch.
----
Summary: K7 is playing scummily, but I would rather not lynch him today as I think more days will strengthen my read on him.

Scum targets would be:
KoC
FS
Manito/K7/Faerie (Bottom three ranked in order of preferred lynch, left to right. All listed as they are very close together in level of suspicion.)

@FS: Your LoS is 9 different people? Is the base of suspicion simply voting Forbid? I think this is a question dodge. It doesn't commit to any player over another, and doesn't state any personal opinion of the players on the list. The blanket "lynched Forbid" reasoning is weak, and soft enough to run away with other people's cases if they become popular.

Why is being number 2 to vote you suspicious? I understand the logic behind "voting other than #1 suspect -> scummy" but I think the situation explains my action.

@LTG: But I think Arm is town and I think FS is scum. I thought FS was scummy D1, but didn't focus on him enough for a real read. What Arm points out strengthens my suspicion, but it is not the entirety of it.

To your post 711, I disagree completely. There's no reason why Arm(assuming he is scum) wouldn't vote for another scum buddy at this point in the game. It could very easily appear genuine but go along without consequence if it was on a person who never got wagoned. Voting a scumbuddy doesn't always mean they want to lynch/bus them.

@Joubert: So scum or not? Bad grammar and sarcastic remarks don't necessarily merit a scum tell, especially without context.

@LF: I'd prefer not to lynch a lurker today, but of the 4 I'd choose Joubert. Bogre has no read whatsoever. K7 I want a better read on, which I think we'll get with time. I have no real scum read on Corin who appears to be a little more active than Joubert.

To the town in general. We all have our different suspects with different levels of intensity by which we suspect them. However one thing I think everyone should consider when voting is, "If lynched, which of my suspects' roles will give me the most information about remaining players?" For example, if right at this very second we lynched Bogre, whether he flipped scum or town I don't think it would lead towards any other players or help clear any other players. I know Bogre isn't one of the more popular lynches, he was just a very good example of what I mean.

[SpyreX]

"If lynched, which of my suspects' roles will give me the most information about remaining players?"

Well, a huge part of my voting process is simply trying to lynch scum. Yes, I'd prefer to lynch an active scummy player versus a lurker at this point, but my first and foremost is "Do I think this person is scum?"

Everything else is secondary.

I think K7 has been scummier and scummier with each of his posts and, although on some level I can understand letting him live to look for connections - do you really think he's going to be stupid enough to do that now that its been said?

[FaerieLord]

Why not? I don't see a real opportunity for one partner to be busing another here. Moreover, at this stage of the game when random votes are gone, one mafia player is not normally going to stick his vote on a partner. Some calculated gambit, trap, or the aforementioned busing are not happening every third post for crying out loud! I am going by probability here.

Or are you going to say most mafia players don't vote very often to begin with to try to figure this stuff out?

No, I'm saying that it is possible for scum to out their other scum partners. See Vanilla Mafia on MTGSalvation as an example if you must.

[Corinthian]

are you going to say most mafia players don't vote very often to begin with

In my experience on other sites, most of the time when there are still many players left, and multiple wagons, mafia players won't set themselves as the only vote against another player. Especially, you don't see scum starting wagons against other scum. Usually.

[armlx]

are you going to say most mafia players don't vote very often to begin with

In my experience on other sites, most of the time when there are still many players left, and multiple wagons, mafia players won't set themselves as the only vote against another player. Especially, you don't see scum starting wagons against other scum. Usually.

It definitely happens here.

[Firestarter]

Still waiting for the lurkers to answer my questions....

are you going to say most mafia players don't vote very often to begin with

In my experience on other sites, most of the time when there are still many players left, and multiple wagons, mafia players won't set themselves as the only vote against another player. Especially, you don't see scum starting wagons against other scum. Usually.

It definitely happens here.

You trying to tell us something...?

[armlx]

Still waiting for the lurkers to answer my questions....

are you going to say most mafia players don't vote very often to begin with

In my experience on other sites, most of the time when there are still many players left, and multiple wagons, mafia players won't set themselves as the only vote against another player. Especially, you don't see scum starting wagons against other scum. Usually.

It definitely happens here.

You trying to tell us something...?

Yawn, that was the exact post I expected you to make. Plz try again.

[Knight of Cydonia]

are you going to say most mafia players don't vote very often to begin with

In my experience on other sites, most of the time when there are still many players left, and multiple wagons, mafia players won't set themselves as the only vote against another player. Especially, you don't see scum starting wagons against other scum. Usually.

I've done it before. Heck, I've even once false-seer claimed, gotten a partner lynched, and hen rode my Seer status all the way to a 2-scum-remaining win. In a game with three or more scum, it's a perfectly valid strategy to sacrifice one for the good of the rest of the pack.
That's why if Killa is scum, and I don't doubt that he is, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one partner of his is on the wagon already.