Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[Kison]

Actually, I think Shaft.ed asks a very good question, and I would like for Jitsu to answer it.

[Guardian]

Vote Count 22

shaft.ed[2] (The Fonz, Erg0)
cicero[1] (Oman)
Oman[1] (shaft.ed)
Erg0[1] (cicero)

Not Voting[4] (BillyTwilight, Jitsu, Kison, vollkan)

[Erg0]

Actually, I think Shaft.ed asks a very good question, and I would like for Jitsu to answer it.

I'm not opposed to Jitsu answering the question. My question was directed at him as well.

[Jitsu]

I don't know why you're saying you believe it was a mistake but you don't believe my reason. What other mistake are you trying to imply?

I don't really think that the preview/submit thing is relevant. What would be different if shaft.ed hadn't voted for ckd? Either we would have had a no lynch or someone else would have hammered him.

Or is it something specific about the hammer that bothers you?

The latter. I already said that I didn't have a problem with the fact he hammered (as I said, I considered it a null tell). There were strong motivations to do hammer either as scum or town. If Shaft.ed hadn't hammered CKD, I would have. I already was in the process of doing it, but the thread was closed before I could finish my post.

Cicero commented how casual the hammer post sounded, and while Cicero was satisfied with the subsequent explanation from Shaft.ed, I wasn't quite as satisfied. Like I said, the logical flow sounded kind funny. First Shaft.ed said that he was (indeed) around, then he typed in his vote *before* typing the reason, and then he wanted to check the bold tags before he added the rest of his content? I would have expected the vote to be at the end. There was almost 2 hours left as that point, so he didn't need to rush, if he knew he was the hammer.

When he said that he knew that admitting it would look suspicious and put the vote under more scrutiny, it sounded to me like he was trying to score a townie point. I got the impression that he had a bit of a guilty conscience and was trying to cover up something, but I couldn't figure out what it was, so I decided to probe to try to find out, though I still didn't know what I was looking for.

If Shaft.ed knew he was the hammer and hit Send too early, it doesn't make much sense, as town or scum, to admit to the premature hammer and then lie about the reason why.

Actually, as I typed that last sentence, something just occurred to me -- maybe I had it backwards from the beginning. Maybe Shaft.ed didn't realize he had hammered until it was too late and covered that up.

@Erg0: Can you please answer my question to you in 639?

[shaft.ed]

When he said that he knew that admitting it would look suspicious and put the vote under more scrutiny, it sounded to me like he was trying to score a townie point. I got the impression that he had a bit of a guilty conscience and was trying to cover up something, but I couldn't figure out what it was, so I decided to probe to try to find out, though I still didn't know what I was looking for.

OK so now you're saying you don't believe it was a mistake. Would you like to take a position on this at some point in time?

Actually, as I typed that last sentence, something just occurred to me -- maybe I had it backwards from the beginning. Maybe Shaft.ed didn't realize he had hammered until it was too late and covered that up.

Cover what up? If I didn't realize I was hammering what's the big deal?

[Jitsu]

OK so now you're saying you don't believe it was a mistake. Would you like to take a position on this at some point in time?

I just realized that my assumption that you knew you hammered may have been wrong. Either you did realize you were hammering and hit Send instead of Preview, as you said, or didn't realize you were hammering, and then seem to have lied about it. I'm leaning towards the latter. Either way, it would seem that you made a mistake and hit Send before you wanted to.

Cover what up? If I didn't realize I was hammering what's the big deal?

Accidental hammers where people don't realize what the vote count is seem to get a lot of attention in games I've read. Some people really hate accidental hammers. I've seen people characterize such play as sloppy and careless, and attack it as such. In the games I've read, I've seen many unvotes as a player gets close to lynch just to prevent accidental hammers.

In this particular case, not realizing you were hammering was not a big deal in itself, since it was unlikely to change the outcome, as was pointed out.

If you didn't realize that you hammered, the big deal is that you seem to have lied about it, because your answer to Cicero's question implied that you *did* know you were hammering. It's also distinctly possible you did lie about it even if you are a townie. I haven't disregarded that consideration. Granted, this wasn't a huge lie, but whenever someone lies in mafia, it makes me wonder why.

Actually, right now I am more concerned why BillyTwilight is trying to reason out in the thread who the potential Vig might be, but I didn't want to drop this line of questioning before it was fully played out.

[cicero]

Actually, right now I am more concerned why BillyTwilight is trying to reason out in the thread who the potential Vig might be, but I didn't want to drop this line of questioning before it was fully played out.

Billy Twilight. Why you tryna narrow down who the vig might be?

[Kison]

If you didn't realize that you hammered, the big deal is that you seem to have lied about it, because your answer to Cicero's question implied that you *did* know you were hammering.

Do you mind pointing out which response you're talking about? I'm not seeing where Shaft.ed implied that he didn't know he hammered.

[Jitsu]

Do you mind pointing out which response you're talking about? I'm not seeing where Shaft.ed implied that he didn't know he hammered.

Read my statement again, I think you have it backward. I said that Shaft.ed implied [earlier] that he DID know he hammered, but I later got the impression that that was untrue. I was referring to this post (607) when he answered Cicero earlier (bolding mine):

I know admitting this is probably going to put my vote under more scrutiny than not, but when I posted that I hit submit instead of preview. I was checking the bold tags and was intending more comment. I didn't get my post up prior to Guardian locking the thread. But it was basically going to say how it was pretty much inevitable that CKD would be lynched. I might be away from thread,

so in order to avoid a No Lynch I was hammering

. I felt both CKD and Adel slightly scummy so they were better candidates than most.

Shaft.ed says above that he was planning on saying at the end of Day 1 that to avoid a No Lynch, he was hammering.

Then in post 704, he says:

Cover what up? If I didn't realize I was hammering what's the big deal?

The phrasing of this post makes it sound to me like he really

didn't

realize he was hammering. It's in the vein of "so what if I did?" In my experience, both in mafia and in real life, if an innocent person is wrongly accused of something s/he

never

says "if I did do it, what's the big deal?". That, to me, is testing the waters to gauge the reaction to a confession, which is relatively strong circumstantial evidence of guilt.

Putting it into perspective though, it's true though that if he did lie, it isn't the kind of major lie that would prove he is scum. It would only indicate that he lied about knowing he hammered (which he could also have done as a townie to deflect suspicion for accidentally doing something that might be seen as scummy). However, I still don't like it when people lie.

I still plan to go back and look at Fonz's case against Shaft.ed, but I don't want to get tunnel-visioned on him like I think I did with Cicero for part of Day 1. As I said, I want to pursue other leads right now.

[cicero]

Request Prod on Billy Twilight

[The Fonz]

Finally, a question: Fonz - Can you do an encapsulate a restatement of your reasoning for why Shaft.ed is scum?

Sure. He looked to me like a player who is making a conscious effort to slot into the middle of the pack. He raised the odd point, but didn't go through with it, or cast around for support/consensus before doing things. He reacted to my attacks on him, by making an omgus vote, much later, and also when it wouldn't do any good (avoiding taking sides between town players). I find delayed omgus to be a reliable tell (and he defended it with the traditional omgus defence of 'no, it was because you were making a really bad case on me.' He doesn't spam the thread like Oman, or lurk like Billy- basically, i think it all adds up to trying not to attract too much attention, whilst giving the appearance of contribution.

[shaft.ed]

Jitsu, I still don't really get what your after. You're picking apart very minor pieces of what I say, and then stating you don't find them scummy or townie even though you accuse me of lying. It's like your just hanging ideas out there hoping someone will grab onto them and run with it for you. I also don't really remember you "tunneling on cicero" day 1 as I really don't remember you putting that much weight behind any suspects.

He doesn't spam the thread like Oman

May be nit-picky but Oman's post count is 77, mine's 112.

Sorry I haven't been posting much the last week or so. Getting a bit burned out of mafia and the slow pace of this game isn't helping. I'd like to get a reread in a put up some more content, but I don't think I'll have time for anything major until Monday at the earliest.

[Guardian]

Prod-ing BillyTwilight.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu, I still don't really get what your after. You're picking apart very minor pieces of what I say, and then stating you don't find them scummy or townie even though you accuse me of lying. It's like your just hanging ideas out there hoping someone will grab onto them and run with it for you. I also don't really remember you "tunneling on cicero" day 1 as I really don't remember you putting that much weight behind any suspects.

I thought I explained it clearly in 708. Perhaps you could clarify what about it you don't understand. What I said was "It doesn't prove you are scum", *not* that I didn't find it scummy. I did find it *somewhat* scummy, but I already conceded it wasn't a major lie.

Just to clear things up: Did you know you hammered CKD or not? Did you lie about it?

I probably would have voted you had BillyTwilight not leapfrogged you on my scumdar. I want to vote him now, but I am giving him the courtesy of responding to my question first.

[vollkan]

@Vollkan - Of course Mafia WIFOM. They WIFOM all the time. The question is whether the WIFOM in this case makes sense. The WIFOM that mafia killed Simenon to cast a shadow on his suspects vs one of his suspects actually killing him makes sense. But what you said about you being alive specifically to confound your own NK meta doesn't make sense at all, I don't think.

Well, again, I don't think that necessarily is the case. It's not necessary to explain my survival that their be an attempt at WIFOM (another candidate just has to appear more attractive to scum).

But, I still don't get why you find it so left-field an idea. If a player has a perceived meta for survival as town, then rational scum might well consider that a relevant factor (WIFOMic) to play into their decision.

Let me try a different angle. Why did you want to check your vote tags in the middle of your post, before typing the reason for your vote that you said you meant to include?

I read this and typed out the below:
"I'll be frank, I can't see where this line of questioning is meant to lead. Giving you the benefit of the doubt, you presumably have in mind some sort of answer which could provide some inference of scumminess? Or are you just feeling around in the dark trying to pad up an image of undertaking inquiries?"

But you kind of answered it with this:

When he said that he knew that admitting it would look suspicious and put the vote under more scrutiny, it sounded to me like he was trying to score a townie point. I got the impression that he had a bit of a guilty conscience and was trying to cover up something, but I couldn't figure out what it was, so I decided to probe to try to find out, though I still didn't know what I was looking for.

Basically, shaft.ed says something awkward and you probed around. I don't have a problem with that per se, but you've taken a while to explain it this way.

The phrasing of this post makes it sound to me like he really didn't realize he was hammering. It's in the vein of "so what if I did?" In my experience, both in mafia and in real life, if an innocent person is wrongly accused of something s/he never says "if I did do it, what's the big deal?". That, to me, is testing the waters to gauge the reaction to a confession, which is relatively strong circumstantial evidence of guilt.

Wrong.

The question he asked is a good one. The fact is that your questioning appeared to be predicated on the assumption that shaft.ed not realising he was hammering was interesting and relevant (or else, townJitsu would have no reason to ask it). His question was to get you to explain the point of your argument.

It's like,
X: "Vollkan, why did you vote in all capital letters?!?!"
Me: "I didn't. Even if I did, why the heck would that matter?"

[The Fonz]

ts.

He doesn't spam the thread like Oman

May be nit-picky but Oman's post count is 77, mine's 112.

You are correct of course: perhaps I should have phrased it 'Oman-style spamming,' ie, a particular type of spamming i associate with Oman, rather than how Oman is actually playing here, which is completely different to his meta.

[Oman]

Actually right now i'm taking the weekend off to help my sister with her house. I'll be back monday.

<3

[Kison]

Jitsu : I'm not reading Shafted's response as you are. You're bringing up the speculative possibility in your post that he did not know that he hammered. He's asking why that would be a big deal, and why it would need to be covered up. I'm really failing to see how this is very important, and am wondering why you're still finding it telling. :-/

Oman, after your weekend vacation... I'm curious as to whether or not there's more to your Cicero case than what you presented, and if not, whether or not you still think he's scum. I found your case to be pretty unconvincing.

Shafted, I'm not expecting you to give any kind of new explanation for the exploit thing. It's something I feel is worth having brought up and worth noting.

[Erg0]

@Erg0: I agree with your point that Shaft.ed's vote on Fonz didn't help anything. If you thought Shaft.ed was engineering some plan try to force your vote on CKD, what do you think he was trying to accomplish with that?

Again, I don't think that he was specifically trying to force me to vote - I just think that his Fonz vote was completely ineffectual at that point. If I had to guess the reason, he may have been hoping to avoid being on a townie wagon at the end of the day - if two people had voted for CKD in the meantime then he wouldn't have had to do anything at the end of the day.

[The Fonz]

It looks to me like Jitsu has decided he thinks shaft.ed is a good lynch candidate, and has adapted the facts to fit the theory. Suspicious as i think shaft.ed is, I don't see how him knowing/not knowing he hammered actually matters, and I'm not sure i like the evolution of Jitsu's argument there.

[shaft.ed]

It looks to me like Jitsu has decided he thinks shaft.ed is a good lynch candidate, and has adapted the facts to fit the theory. Suspicious as i think shaft.ed is, I don't see how him knowing/not knowing he hammered actually matters, and I'm not sure i like the evolution of Jitsu's argument there.

Oddly enough I agree with the Fonz here . Do you find Erg0's arguments to fall into the same category? I see Erg0 is back to his theory that I was trying to "make him" vote, and that I was avoiding being on a townie lynch wagon. I don't see either of these points as valid.

I'm hoping to get a bit of rereading in this afternoon to offer up some new content.

[The Fonz]

No, I actually think your vote for me was scummy.

[cicero]

I'm trying to find

time

motivation for a re-read to come up with new things to say. And clearly I'm not the only one. But this looks like it might become the second day Billy Twilight will have lurked through. I really don't necessarily want to lynch him for it because I know what it's like to have a new born and he is probably simply overwhelmed but

Mod did he answer his prod?Or are you doing one of those 'whether he did or not is none of our beeswax cuz lurking is ok strategy' things?

[Guardian]

Billy picked up his prod, and said he intended to post. Lurking is NOT OK with me and if he continues I'll look into replacement.

[BillyTwilight]

First thing I should note is that the number of games I am in has dropped from 4 to 2 since this game started, and the other game I'm in is practically dead at this point, so I will finally get to concentrate on this game more than any other. I told Guardian my posting will pick up, and it will. Didn't get a chance to look at the forums this weekend, though. I'll make it a point to post at least once a day from here on out, except for perhaps on the weekends.

Why are you commenting on who you think the potential Vig is? It may be that the scum have already concluded what you did above, but then again, it may not. If they haven't, you may have just improved their chances at targeting the Vig, especially since what you said can be interpreted as an assertion that you are not the Vig.

The fact that no town power roles have been eliminated is probably one of the only bright spots from Day 1. If we do have a Vig, the Vig needs to be protected, because he could potentially save us from defeat, especially if Day 2 goes like Day 1 did.

Meh. I'm completely intrigued by your take on this, Jitsu. Especially the fact that you're latching on to the vig side of things instead of the SK side of things. I don't think there is anything in the game that can differentiate one from the other, so I would make the argument that pointing out potential SK suspects would give mafia a good target to go after that helps town.

Secondly, I'm not a big believer in a vig being a huge help to town anyway. If we do have a vig, I'd much prefer they avoid making kills at night. We need this game to go as long as possible. Any misfires from an overzealous vig could put us even further behind the eight ball. If there is a vig in the game and he/she happens to be a forced vig I want them out of the game ASAP. The chances of a vig saving us are very slim, and if we let the game get to a point where we need a vig to save us then we probably deserve to lose anyway.

What exactly about me pointing this out do you find to be scummy? You've recently stated that I've jumped to the top of your scumlist over shaft.ed. It looks to me like you are trying to get as far away from a crappy case on shaft.ed as quickly as possible, especially considering no one in the game really seems to be buying your "preview vs. send" theories.

cicero, I'm also wandering why you are asking which of the people I mentioned do I think is most likely to be the vig. I wouldn't expect two players in the same game to come at me from the "your discussing a vig"-standpoint when as far as I recall I never stated that I found Adel's killer to be more likely a vig than a SK. I'm not exactly sure what to think of it. However, I'd REALLY like to know why Jitsu latched onto me for throwing out the possibility of a vig amongst several players, but never batted an eye when cicero asked me to narrow that group of players down to the one I most likely thought was the vig. As far as that question goes, I might have a look later and see what I think, but I probably won't be answering it.

I'd still like Oman to comment on my thoughts in my last post. I don't have a whole lot left to comment on right now, but I still need a more thorough read of day one before I'm ready to push for any one player's lynch before deadline. Oh, and I have an interesting proposition that I might ask the rest of you about tomorrow. More later.