Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[Guardian]

Vote Count 21

cicero[1] (Oman)
Oman[1] (shaft.ed)

Not Voting[7] (BillyTwilight, cicero, Erg0, Jitsu, Kison, The Fonz, vollkan)

[shaft.ed]

A change in behaviour, from being under attack and posting with ferocity and surity to his offence when the offence is, as I read it, not terribly strong is a scumtell.

Doesn't everyon post more when they are bein forcibly questioned? Did you think CKD scummy because he posted more when he was under attack?

not a terribly strong scum tell = "scummy, scummy, scummy"? Isn't that what you said?

Firstly, I didn't say it was a "not terribly strong scum tell" you might want to review that.

Yes I certainly did read that wrong.

[Oman]

No probs

[The Fonz]

I'm not voted shaft.ed yet?

This needs to be remedied.

vote: shaft.ed

[shaft.ed]

Come on guys. This is an invitational. Why of all games is this turning into a lurkfest?

So Fonz, nothing to comment on then?

[cicero]

Come on guys. This is an invitational. Why of all games is this turning into a lurkfest?

So Fonz, nothing to comment on then?

Easy. Its July. I've been thinking the same thing though. This is a horribly lackadaisickal day two following a terrible for town day one and night one. I'm trying to get through a full re-read to sort out a few things and figure out who I believe in a few of the ongoing controversies.

Here are some random ill-thought out thinks to get you going meanwhile.

Why does everyone think Simenon died? Fonz opined that I might have done it because he was attacking me. I know this to be untrue. You do not. For me, I don't think he was the most deadly of foes on day one though I don't think anyone played a really stellar day so I guess it is as good a choice as any. I can only assume the idea was to use it to see if I could get pushed into being a mislynch although that doesn't make sense because Simenon wasn't really working to hard at lynching me by day's end. Quite the opposite. No matter what he may have said to pay lip service to the idea, I don't think his heart was in my demise by the end of our exchange.

So what Sim's death does make me look to is: who is still alive that people might want dead.

I know that analyzing nightkills on this site has somehow become WIFOM verboten but its worth noting that Vollkan is still alive. He seems to be early kill bait when he's town, no? Alone that means nothing. But he also seems to swoop in to carry off bandwagons on the "weaker" targets. Most recently pushing Oman over his belief that my play dropped off. Earlier Jitsu. And he seems too smart to be on the CKD wagon so easily. He did his great PbP analysis but it was after it was requested. I'd put him as probable scum in this game at this point.

The trouble with this game is this. There seems to be a small element of social rank going on. I'm betting an Oman lynch would be a helluvalot easier to get than a Vollkan lynch. So would Billy Twilight. Likewise I think some of the pushes against me by Simenon and Oman has at least something to do with the fact that they think I'm a pain in the ass.

I've seen this kind of thing before - in Lost Boys - where I realised that one player at least was, at least in part, voting and trusting people mostly based on their overall duration and reputation on the site. Kinda fatal when the scum turned out to be MoS and Pooky. We have three townies down. That means a good third of us is full of shit today. With no dead scum we have no toe hold to analyze interactions. So lets start talking about people. All of them.

On the other hand, Oman is clearly not putting in an A-game. The thing is I bet he often plays better as scum. I haven't actually played with Oman extensively so a good meta analysis is useful. His case on me has a small element of truth in it that can't be ignored. After taking up a ton of air and space in the early game and being frustrated with lurkers/non-contributors there were times that I hung back slightly from posting to see what would develop without me taking up all the attention. So I don't want Oman lynched over noticing that that happened when he's actually evidencing a rather deft sense of observation for my rhythm.

Believing it to be scummy behavior or that I actually stayed under the radar though is totally unfounded. I was opinionated throughout and never too far from the keyboard.

Finally, a question: Fonz - Can you do an encapsulate a restatement of your reasoning for why Shaft.ed is scum?

More as I get a chance to find more things to ask about.

[Kison]

The only thing that strike me as odd about Vollkan(that I can think of) is that he did not address the weirdness I found with his analysis of CKD a page or two back. Vollkan doesn't strike me as the ignore-a-post type. Fonz said his bulky data bombs bother him. I disagree, it's a pretty fitting characteristic for Vollkan from my limited experience with him.

Despite Shafted's explanation that his Jitsu vote was to 'gauge a reaction' from him, I feel that excuse is kind of impossible to counter. While it certainly could be true, from my own perspective I have a hard time buying that explanation as Jitsu's meaning behind his 'exploit' post was painfully obvious - I really didn't feel any slip potential there at all. You can play the 'trying to get a reaction' card an infinite number of times when people jump on you for poorly founded votes.

The other thing about Shafted that I don't get is his The Fonz vote from yesterday. Shafted, when did you decide that you would rather The Fonz be lynched than one of Adel or CKD? Why? And did you truly believe you could pull it off with the short time you had between when you voted and when the deadline was going to land? If the answer is no, then why did you vote for The Fonz?

Awaiting Oman's Cicero case.

Thinking Erg0 contracted some kinda disease or somethin'

[cicero]

Kison, I have to agree with you on that part of the Shaft.ed case, re: taking Jitsu's obvious meaning out of context and claiming joke / reaction testing.

Oman's case on me is posted already, Kison.

[Kison]

Post 665? I expected more than that. Pointing out a few content-less posts doesn't prove that the rest lack content. In that case, after rereading, what is your stance, Oman?

[shaft.ed]

I agree with cicero's comments on social ranking. It does feel that certain players (vollkan in particular) are garnering less of a microscope. And I do expect that Jitsu, BT, and Oman may be "easier lynches" so to speak (I know that will annoy the Fonz).

I feel that excuse is kind of impossible to counter. While it certainly could be true, from my own perspective I have a hard time buying that explanation as Jitsu's meaning behind his 'exploit' post was painfully obvious

I really don't know how else to explain this. I personally think exploit to have a very negative connotation. Apparently that is fairly unique to myself as vollkan seems to be the only player that found my response reasonable. I'll simply restate it's obvious I wasn't going to push a lynch with that one comment. It felt like an opening that I could exploit to test an untested and unfamiliar player.

The other thing about Shafted that I don't get is his The Fonz vote from yesterday. Shafted, when did you decide that you would rather The Fonz be lynched than one of Adel or CKD? Why? And did you truly believe you could pull it off with the short time you had between when you voted and when the deadline was going to land? If the answer is no, then why did you vote for The Fonz?

I felt the Fonz likely scum after his weak attack on me. At the time of my vote I felt about a 10% chance of getting him lynched. It seemed worth the try.

[Erg0]

Hmmm... I was kind of waiting on a response from shaft.ed that never came. He seems to have wandered off to attack Oman instead. I'm not particularly satisfied with his response to my previous questioning.

Vote: shaft.ed

[cicero]

July 8th and then on July 14th after we remember you are gone again. Candyman Candyman Candyman.

Vote Erg0

[shaft.ed]

Hmmm... I was kind of waiting on a response from shaft.ed that never came. He seems to have wandered off to attack Oman instead. I'm not particularly satisfied with his response to my previous questioning.

Vote: shaft.ed

Erg0 I answered most all of you questions in detail. The only one I noticed unanswered was if I felt the Fonz lynch was more likely than Adel. Obviously Adel was more likely.

And by "waiting for my response" was that what kept you from the thread?
Do you feel my attacks on Oman were unwarranted then, because that seems to be what you're implying?

[vollkan]

Why does everyone think Simenon died?

No idea. Night choice speculation is something that is not worth engaging in.

I know that analyzing nightkills on this site has somehow become WIFOM verboten but its worth noting that Vollkan is still alive. He seems to be early kill bait when he's town, no? Alone that means nothing. But he also seems to swoop in to carry off bandwagons on the "weaker" targets. Most recently pushing Oman over his belief that my play dropped off. Earlier Jitsu. And he seems too smart to be on the CKD wagon so easily. He did his great PbP analysis but it was after it was requested. I'd put him as probable scum in this game at this point.

Your analysis here ignores a few points:
1) My survival: The meta that I have for being NKed as town is something that most people here would be familiar with. That diminishes my survival as a meta-tell against me. Moreover, it's hardly uncommon for me to survive a night phase.
2) Bandwagoning: Not sure what you are getting at here. I made a joke vote for Oman (by no means ignore my joke wagon, but it's misleading of you to say that I swooped in), and I made a serious case against Jitsu who, as I have said before, I don't consider to be a weaker player at all. As for my current inquiring of Oman, I challenge you to actually explain why I should not have asked those questions. This whole argument you are making here is baseless because it's seeking to impose one set of motivations upon my behaviour which, itself, you haven't attacked.
3) CKD: I wasn't champing at the bit for CKD's blood. It was a compromise choice. There was a sound case against him though, and I have given my reasons for supporting it. If you disagree with any of them, feel free to take them up with me.
4) PBP: Well done for ignoring all my recent meta history here, especially since it was alluded to in my and other peoples' posts. I have recently been trying to avoid PBPing, due to the Vollkan Effect, but I have decided to shift back because Vollkan without PBP does not work (see Dante's In Fresno).

Put bluntly: I don't like your case, Cicero.

The only thing that strike me as odd about Vollkan(that I can think of) is that he did not address the weirdness I found with his analysis of CKD a page or two back. Vollkan doesn't strike me as the ignore-a-post type. Fonz said his bulky data bombs bother him. I disagree, it's a pretty fitting characteristic for Vollkan from my limited experience with him.

Whoops...I'll address it now (and I am an ignore-a-post type, and every time I ignore a post somebody inevitably casts aspersions on because they think it is out of character).

11: The Shanba unvote. Declares that he isn't sure why the wagon is moving to Shanba who is not posting on site and unvotes. Says that his question stands.

He only justifies the unvote on the basis of the fact that Shanba is not on-site.

As has been said, this justification doesn't hold water unless there is an alternative wagon, otherwise there is nothing to be gained from leaving the wagon.

It's also important that, at this point in time, he makes no comment on the speed of the wagon making him uneasy, or anything to that effect as he did subsequently.

I think this post forms an interesting example of something that, whilst not "anti-town", can be considered "scummy". There's no negative consequence for town of CKD unvoting, but there is no pro-town motivation for the action.

Now he says that leaving quickly-building is a "habit" (Are we to take that as a statement of fact that your meta will verify?), and he was startled. It's interesting that he says his vote can be "considered" out there still, but he doesn't "like the company of voters".

This is interesting because, in 11, the only discernible reason for the unvote is the futility of an absentee wagon.

However, he has now declared that his vote is to be considered to be on the absentee, instead justifying his unvote on the basis of not liking the company. Additionally, I can't see how "the company" is really relevant to the wagon. It wasn't going to go to a lynch (I don't think any of us here would be so naive as to think something like that was reasonably foreseeable).

I hate Day 1s without a Night 0, or maybe I am just insecure about my scum hunting abilities day 1 with little to go on.

not sure why the wagon is shifting to Shanba if he is not even posting at this site.

unvote

my last question to shanba still stands though..and you should consider my vote still there.

I'm curious... Were you ignoring the "not sure why the wagon is shifting to Shanba" part of his unvote post when you wrote this? When I went back to read CKD's unvote (as a result of reading your rundown), the 'growth of the wagon' explanation he later provided, to me, was pretty obviously embedded in that little part of the post. Obviously, this is unclear if you read the unvote post by itself because it's not explicate by any means, but it fits into place when you consider what he said later on. So I'm not understanding how you couldn't see this - you seem to have tried to paint CKD in a manner which made him appear to change his story(or add to it), but what he said does seem to fit with the wording of his initial unvote.

You make a good point here. He says: "not sure why the wagon is shifting to Shanba if he is not even posting at this site". I disagree with your interpretation of this, though.

Remember that, later on, he explicitly attacked the speed of the wagon. Here, he only attacks its utility. The way his sentence is structured is:
1) Statement of concern - "Not sure why the wagon is shifting to Shanba"
2) Reason for concern - "he is not even posting"

Hindsight is 20:20, and, in light of his subsequent posts, you might generously read in an implicit concern about the speed of the wagon, but I don't think that is a reasonable interpretation. What he said initially was that he didn't like the utility of the wagon and, for that reason, didn't like the wagon. The later attacks, on the "character" of the wagon, if you will, were completely different. He also never said: "That's what I meant in my initial post" or anything like that, to establish a clear link between the two.

[Erg0]

Kill WIFOM is an interesting beast, but my experience is that who

was

killed is far more telling than who

wasn't

killed. Although I've seen patterns over time in this area, it's really far too difficult to apply these reliably in any specific situation.

As such, kill speculation is one of my least favourite things.

[cicero]

Yeah. I'd be all over that bit of mafiascum recieved wisdom if I didnt see it work so well on another website recently. Some of the things people believe on this site are taken as gospel truth when they're really just site conventions. Not thinking about nightkills is dumb.

Anyway, I'm not even sure I believe my case on Vollkan yet myself. But I'm watching him.

Oh yeah - I don't know everyone's meta nearly as well as people seem to think I should. Also I'm apparently too stupid to even understand Vollkan when he writes but let's see...

1) My survival: The meta that I have for being NKed as town is something that most people here would be familiar with. That diminishes my survival as a meta-tell against me. Moreover, it's hardly uncommon for me to survive a night phase.

This is dumb. People get nightkilled because scum percieve them as a threat, more than any other reason. Second they kill someone they think isn't traceable to them. Third they kill someone they think won't get lynched. They don't keep you alive to confound the meta of you being alive. There is no WAY They decided "lets keep Vollkan alive and someone like Cicero will try to get him lynched." There was just no evidence in play to suggest the likelihood of such a thing.

2) Bandwagoning: Not sure what you are getting at here. I made a joke vote for Oman (by no means ignore my joke wagon, but it's misleading of you to say that I swooped in), and I made a serious case against Jitsu who, as I have said before, I don't consider to be a weaker player at all. As for my current inquiring of Oman, I challenge you to actually explain why I should not have asked those questions. This whole argument you are making here is baseless because it's seeking to impose one set of motivations upon my behaviour which, itself, you haven't attacked.

This is a fair point and its the biggest problem I see as well. I'm not talking about early Oman vote. Just recent. And we all noted the Jitsu vote as being possibly opportunistic earlier. You and Shaft.ed swooped at Jitsu and then at Oman. Together. So I'm seeing a possible tie. But at the same time nothing you did with Oman is beyond the pail. I just wonder, do you think Oman is scummy Oman this game or lazy Oman?

3) CKD: I wasn't champing at the bit for CKD's blood. It was a compromise choice. There was a sound case against him though, and I have given my reasons for supporting it. If you disagree with any of them, feel free to take them up with me.

There were a few mild things one could poooosssibly see as scumtells from CKD but to call it a sound case is a bit much. I really find votes there odd. But you were more ambivalent than expected. (It may seem scummy but my post really was done with a lazy amount of research. Its why I didn't vote you. I wanted to start discussion.) You really wanted Jitsu. Still feel the same way today? I need to re-read your PbPs more carefully. With time going I'm getting down to that.

4) PBP: Well done for ignoring all my recent meta history here, especially since it was alluded to in my and other peoples' posts. I have recently been trying to avoid PBPing, due to the Vollkan Effect, but I have decided to shift back because Vollkan without PBP does not work (see Dante's In Fresno).

No idea what your meta history is. Town works harder than scum. That's all I know. Thanks for the heads up. Besides this game do you have others to show me that validate this?

[cicero]

Also - sorry about calling things dumb. Too rude. Apologies.

[Oman]

Kill WIFOM is an interesting beast, but my experience is that who

was

killed is far more telling than who

wasn't

killed. Although I've seen patterns over time in this area, it's really far too difficult to apply these reliably in any specific situation.

As such, kill speculation is one of my least favourite things.

I think both are two WIFOMable. I mean, what would say about Adel and Sim being killed.

[vollkan]

1) My survival: The meta that I have for being NKed as town is something that most people here would be familiar with. That diminishes my survival as a meta-tell against me. Moreover, it's hardly uncommon for me to survive a night phase.

This is dumb. People get nightkilled because scum percieve them as a threat, more than any other reason. Second they kill someone they think isn't traceable to them. Third they kill someone they think won't get lynched. They don't keep you alive to confound the meta of you being alive. There is no WAY They decided "lets keep Vollkan alive and someone like Cicero will try to get him lynched." There was just no evidence in play to suggest the likelihood of such a thing.

I agree somewhat. Ultimately, scum make their night choice based on what they think is going to improve their own prospects. The obverse is that scum won't NK a player if they perceive more advantage elsewhere. Scum do play the WIFOM game, Cicero. You might dismiss it, but I really don't think keeping me alive in order to render doubt upon me is so far-fetched as you make it out to be. I don't necessarily think that is what happened, because I really do think that Adel and/or Simenon may have presented more attractive NK options than myself, but you really can't dismiss it so out of hand.

I just wonder, do you think Oman is scummy Oman this game or lazy Oman?

Lazy. We had a dense D1 and now a demoralised D2, so I would not put it past Oman to become a bit lacking in substance. That doesn't mean I see his non-input as a permanent null-tell, but it doesn't buzz my radar at this stage of things.

You really wanted Jitsu. Still feel the same way today?

Yes I did. He is my #1 right now, but there's been nothing new for me to probe on, so it's kind of a dead-end for me right now.

Besides this game do you have others to show me that validate this?

The meta history is that after House Mafia I began to be more opposed to PBPAs, climaxing in my bad play in Cultafia and dismal failure in Dantes in Fresno. It's not like my play has been uniformly poor, but those two very recent games reflect my change.

[vollkan]

EBWOP: I cited cultafia in the above, and criticised my play there, but the game is ongoing (I am dead, however). I see no problem in saying as much as I did in the above post, but please bear that fact in mind.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu if you want a clear example of me hitting preview instead of submit please view my death via post restriction violation in iPick. I make this mistake not often but often enough.

Are you avoiding my points? It sounds here like you believe I am attacking you for making a mistake, which is ludicrous. Everyone makes mistakes, and I don't understand why you want to show me meta that says you do. All of us have posts that we really wish we could have back. That's not the point.

I'll say it again. I *do* believe you hit Preview instead of Send. I'm not really believing your explanation why (to check vote tags in the middle of a hammer post before typing your reason for the vote).

Let me try a different angle. Why did you want to check your vote tags in the middle of your post, before typing the reason for your vote that you said you meant to include?

My back and forth with the Fonz was on the same page as the vote. It should have been on the top of everyone's mind and easily visible.

I reread the post. Yes, there was a back and forth with the Fonz, but your long post on that page consisted of a lot of one and two line defenses against Fonz's points, with a few longer responses. There was hardly much in the way of citing any evidence for your Fonz vote. With only a few hours left until deadline, if you are going to vote for someone with NO votes on them and then say you are trying to get them lynched, I would have expected a bit more effort in constructing a case.

CKD had 5 votes at that point and while it wasn't certain he would be a lynch at that point, I can't imagine how you thought your comment of "Fonz has been reaching against me, casting suspicions that are hardly scummy and apply to almost half the players here, and being hypocritical." would convince people to change their votes to CKD. You said in 573 that you were making a last ditch effort to get Fonz lynched, but I fail to see the effort. There was never a strong movement against Fonz all day, and with a few hours to go until deadline, I would think it would have taken a fairly strong case to lynch Fonz in place of CKD or Adel.

Following up with that, is the Fonz still your top suspect? If you really think he's that scummy, why don't you summarize your case against him and cite your evidence. Cicero already asked Fonz to summarize his case on you, so I'd like to hear your side.

[Jitsu]

CKD and cicero were the only players who were actually voting Adel at deadline. Very interesting considering players were supposedly "taking sides" between Adel and CKD. On quick readthrough, those expressing suspicion of Adel towards the end of the day:

Fonz, Oman, shaft.ed, volkan, plus cicero, obviously.

As a side note, if we have a Vig they are probably in the above list. I don't see a Vig killing someone (Adel) that they hadn't expressed suspicion of before. Much less confident if a SK killed Adel; they might or might not have expressed suspicion of her at any point day 1.

Why are you commenting on who you think the potential Vig is? It may be that the scum have already concluded what you did above, but then again, it may not. If they haven't, you may have just improved their chances at targeting the Vig, especially since what you said can be interpreted as an assertion that you are not the Vig.

The fact that no town power roles have been eliminated is probably one of the only bright spots from Day 1. If we do have a Vig, the Vig needs to be protected, because he could potentially save us from defeat, especially if Day 2 goes like Day 1 did.

[cicero]

@Vollkan - Of course Mafia WIFOM. They WIFOM all the time. The question is whether the WIFOM in this case makes sense. The WIFOM that mafia killed Simenon to cast a shadow on his suspects vs one of his suspects actually killing him makes sense. But what you said about you being alive specifically to confound your own NK meta doesn't make sense at all, I don't think.

[shaft.ed]

Let me try a different angle. Why did you want to check your vote tags in the middle of your post, before typing the reason for your vote that you said you meant to include?

I always do that for almost every post. I frequently hit preview in order to come up with proper wording for my thoughts. On average I preview a post about 3-4 times before posting it. If I'm struggling with proper wording then I'll also just hit the preview button, especially after adding some tags. That's why I showed the iPick example I had added the quote tags and was checking them. I don't know why you're saying you believe it was a mistake but you don't believe my reason. What other mistake are you trying to imply?

I would have expected a bit more effort in constructing a case.

Fonz had very minimal Day 1 posting outside of that very weak attack. Most everything else was either very early in the day or "let's lynch shaft.ed." It doesn't take much space to summarize that.

In regards to the odds of the futility of the attempt I already stated I didn't expect more than a 10% chance of my push to be successful. But I wanted to give it a shot based on my very recent suspicions of him.

Following up with that, is the Fonz still your top suspect? If you really think he's that scummy, why don't you summarize your case against him and cite your evidence. Cicero already asked Fonz to summarize his case on you, so I'd like to hear your side.

He's still at the top of my list. The case is pretty much the same. Constant pushing of a very weak case against me. Painting my actions as scummy when they are common to many players in the game. Lurking, in and out of plain site. Tunneling on me while seemingly ignoring the rest of the players in the game. I'll try getting up a more detailed analysis later, but he doesn't have a lot to work with.

[Erg0]

I don't really think that the preview/submit thing is relevant. What would be different if shaft.ed hadn't voted for ckd? Either we would have had a no lynch or someone else would have hammered him.

Or is it something specific about the hammer that bothers you?