Mini 594 - Satin Doll Showdown - {GAME OVER}

[Erg0]

Apologies, but my access had been non-existent for the last week or so, thus I'm heavily out of touch with mafia in general right now. I'll get back into things on the weekend, hold tight til then.

[Incognito]

hasdgfas, just in case you missed this before, here it is again:

hasdgfas, how do you feel about eldarad (MafiaSSK's replacement)? Since he's replaced in, I can't remember you mentioning another word of suspicion about him but yet you were all over MafiaSSK previously.

[hasdgfas]

hasdgfas, just in case you missed this before, here it is again:

hasdgfas, how do you feel about eldarad (MafiaSSK's replacement)? Since he's replaced in, I can't remember you mentioning another word of suspicion about him but yet you were all over MafiaSSK previously.

I have thoughts. Give me a day or two as I'm quite busy currently.

[PokerFace]

Ok I am here. A couple of things.

Even though I agree that Cow is probably scum, I still get some interestingly scummy vibes from Incog, maybe that's why I read his posting so far today as being defensive and overly so. Probably just me, but that's how I feel.

Being overlydefensive should never being considered with scuminess. Only thing I think Incog did wrong was drop the hammer a little early before we could discuss things, but its all good I guess, i can see a townie making that mistake considering Tar's confession.

If there's someone alive who has a better meta on Erg0, I'm sheeping on everyone else's behavior toward him and would love to hear more. Just so we're clear on that.

Only played one game with Erg0 (Mini 554). We were both town in that game, and my overall impression of him so far is I feel like he was much more prolific in that game when compared to this one. He would be next in my suspicions list after hasdgfas...

A recent game I've been in with Erg0 "Dynamite Mafia" he was not very prolific. Same with a game I read awhile back called "Elemental Mafia"

Dynamite: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8119
Elemental: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8167

In both these games Erg0 was town and lurked a bit when compared to the activity levels of the other players. I think he is more likly in alot of games at the moment and hense shortening his activity in some games. Either that or his access problems are worse then he tells us. I don't think Erg0 is scum at the moment. I lean towards a different player being with Tar and Cow.

I got no problem with the cow wagon. There have been some good reasons mentioned for him being scum as of late, and I mentioned some reasons for thinking he was scum in post #581. I will wait to vote only because it will put him at L-1 and I don't want him to do what Tarhalindur attempted to do especially since not everyone has posted yet. What else shall we discuss today?

[Mizzy]

Poker:

Well, now that we know for sure that Glork was telling the truth, I for one and going to go re-read that whole thing and see if hindsight turns anything up, though I am not sure when I will be able to do it.

[Elmo]

eldarad, "Glorktown would recognise a 1 for 1 trade for a Tarscum as a pretty good trade" - why?

Vote

:

PokerFace

.

FoS

:

hasdfgfas

,

Eldarad

.

Actuall stuff when I don't feel like crap, i.e. tomorrow maybe. I'm considering asking for replacement, but hopefully it won't be necessarily.

[scotmany12]

I am posting this in all of my games and V/LA, as well as sending it to all the mods of games I am involved in. I will be away from Saturday, July 5th to Sunday, July 13th. As of now, I expect to have absolutely no internet access. While I hope that I am not, I will fully understand if I am replaced.

Unless something comes up, I am not planning on commenting on anything from now until I leave.

[Ether]

I sort of think Eldarad's hopelessly late support for the Glorkwagon is a town sign, as is the way SSK changed his mind about Glork after their exchange. I am aware that WIFOM applies.

I could see Pokerscum, I guess.

Meh.

PF should make a List.

[PokerFace]

Very well, here is what i am thinking

1.hasdgfas <already mentioned some reasons for this
2.eldarad/mafiassk <go to this recently 'completed' game
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8601
Compare mafiassk's play in that game to his play here. See if you have enough fingers to count the simularities. In both games he said lurking was a strategy. And in that game he was the scum leader. I don't think Elderad's late jump on the Glork wagon was a town sign.

*gap* I think those that follow have a chance at being town but have done some scummy/confusing actions

3.incognito <hammer on Tar, tunnel visioned on glork for the most part
4.Erg0 <His activity/prolificness does not determine wether he is town or scum in my opinion. His epiphany of voting Tar still feels wierd, but when I look at the early day1 exchanges between Tar and Erg0 (they voted each other at different points and considering Tar's early push on Erg0) I think he has a chance at being town. Would anyone like to disagree or discuss this considering Tar and Erg0's early interactions?

*gap* I think these people probably aren't scum

5.Mizzy <Jump on mafiassk day2 was bad but I think she may be town for other reasons
6.Ether <I don't think you have done anything individually scummy. Your vote toward Tar looked a little odd day2. Tar's push on you being with Glork gives me mixed thoughts aswell. Aside from that nothing.
7.Scotmany <I don't think he has done anything scummy IMO
8.Elmo <Tar's card flip combined with his push on Elmo day one makes me think Elmo is town. Looking back at Elmo's play I think i may be dealing with the same Elmo I saw in "Dynamite Stick Mafia"

Any other questions/comments you have for me, Ether? Elmo, would you like to say anything or mention more about your suspicions? I value your viewpoint at this point in the game.

[Incognito]

Hm.

2.eldarad/mafiassk <go to this recently 'completed' game
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8601
Compare mafiassk's play in that game to his play here. See if you have enough fingers to count the simularities. In both games he said lurking was a strategy. And in that game he was the scum leader. I don't think Elderad's late jump on the Glork wagon was a town sign.

Check this out though: MafiaSSK referencing game

It's pretty bad that this post wasn't deleted since it does reference this ongoing game, but I'm willing to take this post as pretty much clearing eldarad as town. PF, did you not notice this in your read-through of that game? What are your thoughts about it?

Also when SSK was active in our game, I believe he brought up that Smalltown Mafia game where he was scum, and his voting scheme was much more volatile in that game when compared to this one. I pretty much felt like that he cleared him as town in this game as well.

[PokerFace]

I more so thought he was referencing us in an attempt to clear himself via context for the "Akatsuki" game. Our game is ongoing and so no one knows his alignment here except him. Just before Mafiassk left us here the general concensus was that he had a good chance of being town. When looking at an ongoing game where you have not card flipped, all you can get is a general consensus of the views others have of you. So basically you are using the views of others to clear you and since your alignment and the alignments of others viewing you is unknown, it is not evidence that can entirely clear you in any game. In the "Akatsuki" game he mentioned his stategies as working to find scum. But he wasn't really finding scum in our game with the strategy nor was he really using it for that purpose in the "Akatsuki" game. He never deeply went into who he thought was scum. He only briefly said why he thought Glork had a better chance of being scum over Tarhalindur. All his lurking ever did was keep him hidden from criticism until someone pointed it out. If you think my view is incorrect tell me. And now that i think about it, we should probably watch how this topic is discussed since I don't want to see any modkillings involved with the aspect of people talking about ongoing games elsewhere. Modkills is an unsportsman like thing to happen in any game.

Aside from Erg0's prolificness being low, are there any other reasons you may suspect him? I seem to remember you having and exchange of views earlier, when Erg0 voted Tarhalindur over Glork.

[Ether]

I noticed the reference, but I don't think that's a tell either way. He didn't appear to have any better examples he could cite.

Also, on Glork, he seems to be scum trying to act like town by not paying a lot of attention to me. He didn't do that much suspecting of me at the beginning-now of me. So I'll do a

FOS:Glork

At this point, after doing the conversation with Glork in-thread, I'm inclined to believe his more.

This switch,

because

it required prompting every inch of the way, just feels genuine to me.

But Eldarad still needs to post.

I'm a bit put off by how universal the Cowhate seems to be, but I'm secondguessing myself for one reason or another on like every other player, so, eh.

[eldarad]

eldarad, "Glorktown would recognise a 1 for 1 trade for a Tarscum as a pretty good trade" - why?

Because trading scum for townies on a 1 for 1 basis will result in a town win given that the town outnumber the scum...There didn't seem to be any recognition or acknowledgement from Glork that having a scum basically sacrifice himself in order to get Glork lynched would - at worst - still result in a good trade for the town.

~~~
PokerFace, do you have anything based on

this game

that makes you believe I am scum?
Do you have any reason to believe that MafiaSSK's assertion that his lurking helps him to find scum (because scum tend to try to lynch lurkers more than townies do) was false? Why or why not?

~~~
I strongly disliked hascow's actions at the end of Day 1 with respect to the Elmo wagon, and his answers on Day 2 really didn't help his cause. There were already a substantial number of votes on hascow when I checked in Today and whilst I have no problem with it, it is a super-speedy wagon. There has been no rush to hammer, which makes me somewhat happier.

Mizzy, I asked you a question earlier but I guess it clashed with RL stuff. I'll ask it again:
How could you seriously believe that there was any other option for Yesterday's lynch other than Glork or Tar?
Post 413 is breathtaking in it's non-committallness. I have no idea how someone, confronted with 2 mutually-exclusive claims, can decide to vote for someone completely unrelated. Can you explain?

[hasdgfas]

here are a few of my thoughts on eldarad, that Incog wanted. Bear with me if I've said some of this already:

2) Hascow's actions at the end of Day 1 seem a bit weird, and I don't like his answer to my question. (Or rather, I don't like his answer to the question that I was leading up to, but Glork got in first)

...but knowing the potential of you being lynched instead, and knowing your own alignment, why wouldn't you put an insurance vote on Elmo?

1) it was unnecessary, as he had more votes earlier than I did

So what you're saying is that you were happy with an Elmo lynch, but did not want to be seen to support it openly. I find the difference between outright support and acquiescence to be nil in that situation, and that fact that you chose to hide your support for the Elmo lynch by simply letting it happen rather than place a vote makes me very suspicious.

That is not at all what I was saying. Has there ever been a lynch that looked like it was going to happen yet you disagreed with and you couldn't really do anything about?
That's what that was for me. I wasn't really happy with an Elmo lynch either, as the wagon grew far too quickly.
This twisting of my words and putting words in my mouth is very suspicious to me.

3) At present, I believe Mizzy to be scum regardless of Glork's/Tar's alignment.

Sure, I can see that, but why? I'd love some reasoning for it.

4) I agree with Tar's assertion earlier that there seems to be a link between Ether and Glork. If Glork turns out to be scum, then I think Ether is scum with him.

Hmm, interesting. What do you think now about Ether?

For all other players, I think that my read of them is irrelevant at this point, since the Glork/Tar lynch is the only game in town.

this is not a pro-town statement.

I strongly disliked hascow's actions at the end of Day 1 with respect to the Elmo wagon, and his answers on Day 2 really didn't help his cause. There were already a substantial number of votes on hascow when I checked in Today and whilst I have no problem with it, it is a super-speedy wagon. There has been no rush to hammer, which makes me somewhat happier.

You already mentioned that, but the wagon still wasn't good. Rather like mine, in fact. A bunch of people jumped on it quickly and with very little reasoning. It makes me want to look back at the Elmowagon to see who all jumped on that.


Anyways, I still think eldarad/SSK is scummy, and SSK claiming that scum will go after lurkers more than town, or whatever it was that he said, is ridiculous. Also note that he flipped scum in that game.

Since I'm sure Incog or someone else is going to ask me, the reason that I didn't say this before was because I thought it could wait, as there was no way that he was getting lynched yesterday.
Before someone notices what I said to SSK about ignoring the others, note that he had just replaced in, and it is always nice to get a replacer's thoughts on everyone. With the focus on Glork/Tar, if I had posted my thoughts on eldarad, it would have been more of a distraction to the town than if eldarad simply posted his thoughts on everyone.

I feel comfortable with a

vote: eldarad

at this point

[eldarad]

That is not at all what I was saying. Has there ever been a lynch that looked like it was going to happen yet you disagreed with and you couldn't really do anything about?

OK. But my problem is how you have positioned yourself as *not* being in favour of the Elmo lynch, and yet acted in the knowledge that even without your vote Elmo was going to get lynched.
Since you know your alignment but only think you know Elmo's surely you should favour an Elmo-lynch over a cow-lynch? And this is not a false choice - one of you was going to get lynched.
You picked the Elmo-lynch, but you did it in a sneaky underhanded way.

4) I agree with Tar's assertion earlier that there seems to be a link between Ether and Glork. If Glork turns out to be scum, then I think Ether is scum with him.

Hmm, interesting. What do you think now about Ether?

Heh. Well.
I don't think Ether is linked to Glork anymore.
I thought that Ether's early Glork-vote following the Tar claim was her jumping off a sinking ship. She then spent some time positioning herself for an unvote when Tar was looking shaky, which reinforced in my mind the Ether-Glork pairing.
So I was wrong on that one. It's still possible that she was following her scumbuddy Tar's 'guilty' result to appear like a good townie should, but it's somewhat less likely than the Glork link was.
So yeah, no Caffhate at the moment.

I'm waiting for Mizzy to see my question, so I'll delay my Mizzy comments until after she answers.

Anyways, I still think eldarad/SSK is scummy, and SSK claiming that scum will go after lurkers more than town, or whatever it was that he said, is ridiculous. Also note that he flipped scum in that game.

You may think SSK is wrong when he says that lurker-hunters tend to be scum, but do you think he was sincere in his opinion?
Why do you think SSK flipping scum in a different game means that he is scum in this one?

[Mizzy]

Mizzy, I asked you a question earlier but I guess it clashed with RL stuff. I'll ask it again:
How could you seriously believe that there was any other option for Yesterday's lynch other than Glork or Tar?
Post 413 is breathtaking in it's non-committallness. I have no idea how someone, confronted with 2 mutually-exclusive claims, can decide to vote for someone completely unrelated. Can you explain?

I'm sorry, no, I didn't see it.

I can't really answer in a way that you would fully understand. The closest I can come to is that you didn't need me for a lynch (had plenty of voters) and I saw that the person I felt should be lynched probably would be (Tar) so I started scumhunting for another scummer.

[eldarad]

I can't really answer in a way that you would fully understand. The closest I can come to is that you didn't need me for a lynch (had plenty of voters) and I saw that the person I felt should be lynched probably would be (Tar) so I started scumhunting for another scummer.

For the moment, I don't think I'd be willing to vote for either Tar or Glork based on this alone because Tar's claim was scummy as hell but it was a cop claim that says Glork's scum, so I need to keep all of that in mind. I would rather look at a different target for now, such as SSK.

How do you reconcile these two statements?

[Mizzy]

I can't really answer in a way that you would fully understand. The closest I can come to is that you didn't need me for a lynch (had plenty of voters) and I saw that the person I felt should be lynched probably would be (Tar) so I started scumhunting for another scummer.

For the moment, I don't think I'd be willing to vote for either Tar or Glork based on this alone because Tar's claim was scummy as hell but it was a cop claim that says Glork's scum, so I need to keep all of that in mind. I would rather look at a different target for now, such as SSK.

How do you reconcile these two statements?

Don't they kind of say the same thing? Or are you reading more into them than you should be?

[Incognito]

Aside from Erg0's prolificness being low, are there any other reasons you may suspect him? I seem to remember you having and exchange of views earlier, when Erg0 voted Tarhalindur over Glork.

I'm guessing you're talking about my post 483? That post was pointing out something that I found to be flawed in the logic that Erg0 used to clear Glork as town. I eventually FoS'ed him here:

Also, if you can find flavour in the first post then I'm pretty sure that scum could find it too.

FoS: Erg0

because his 484 looked like a slip revealing that he knew I was town. His response to my FoS was as follows:

Meh. Everyone other than Glork and Tar is assumed town until tomorrow.

So yeah. Maybe it was a slip, maybe it wasn't but that's another thing that does bother me about Erg0. I owe this game an analysis post or two or three now that we have known scum. Deadline is........ holy shit, the 14th. I should have that soon, hopefully.

[eldarad]

Don't they kind of say the same thing? Or are you reading more into them than you should be?

What the hell is that supposed to mean?

Post 413 says that you're kinda undecided between Tar and Glork - Tar's claim looks scummy, but then he is claiming to have a guilty on Glork so that's making you think twice.

Post 640 says that you thought Tar was scum, but you were confident that he was going to be lynched without you. So you voted for someone completely different.

Is that an accurate interpretation of your posts?
How do you explain the inconsistency between the two?
Since when have you started deliberately not voting people you think are scum because you think other people will vote for them anyway?

[Mizzy]

What the hell is that supposed to mean?

Post 413 says that you're kinda undecided between Tar and Glork - Tar's claim looks scummy, but then he is claiming to have a guilty on Glork so that's making you think twice.

Post 640 says that you thought Tar was scum, but you were confident that he was going to be lynched without you. So you voted for someone completely different.

Is that an accurate interpretation of your posts?
How do you explain the inconsistency between the two?
Since when have you started deliberately not voting people you think are scum because you think other people will vote for them anyway?

If you know me at all, you'll know that I am a very cautious player. When major stuff goes down in a game, I form some pretty strong opinions but don't talk about or act upon them unless I'm sure.

I don't really see there to be an inconsistency between my two posts. In one, I'm saying that I don't feel comfortable voting on either just yet, which is pretty normal for me. And in the other, I say I felt that I wasn't needed because I felt the right target would get lynched. In the previous day I had mentioned that I felt Glork was town, and that really hadn't changed much with Tar's claim. It made me second guess myself a little, but I still had my opinions on the matter.

You also have to keep in mind that as of late, my play time has been drastically reduced and so has my quality of play, for reasons you all know by now. But again, just because I don't say something doesn't mean I don't have an opinion on it...but if I don't feel comfortable with a situation, I'm not going to pick a side until I am positive I am doing the right thing. In this case, I felt the right thing was looking at a third target because a) no one else was and b) my lack of play wouldn't fuck things up for everyone else in scumhunting.

[OhGodMyLife]

27th vote count

hasdgfas - 3 (scotmany12, Incognito, Ether)
PokerFace - 1 (Elmo)
eldarad - 1 (hasdgfas)

Not Voting - 4 (PokerFace, Mizzy, eldarad, Erg0)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Current deadline: July 14th, 4:00 PM EST

[eldarad]

If you know me at all, you'll know that I am a very cautious player. When major stuff goes down in a game, I form some pretty strong opinions but don't talk about or act upon them unless I'm sure.

Yeah OK. But what made you think that a vote was warranted on SSK when it wasn't warranted on Tar?
I'm especially surprised now that you have reminded me how rarely you vote for people unless you are certain. So how come you voted SSK in order to 'scumhunt'? Are you saying that you are certain that I am scum?

Sorry Mizzy, but it just doesn't stack up.

vote Mizzy

[Mizzy]

Yeah OK. But what made you think that a vote was warranted on SSK when it wasn't warranted on Tar?
I'm especially surprised now that you have reminded me how rarely you vote for people unless you are certain. So how come you voted SSK in order to 'scumhunt'? Are you saying that you are certain that I am scum?

Sorry Mizzy, but it just doesn't stack up.

vote Mizzy

Whatever you say, Eld, but at that time, I thought he was scummy enough to vote for his lurking and play, yes. And a less controversial choice than either Tar or Glork. Why lurk at a time like that when you should be at least talking about what's going on? The only reason I could see for him active-lurking was that he felt uncomfortable with what was going on, maybe because his scumbuddy was running a gambit.

[PokerFace]

~~~
PokerFace, do you have anything based on

this game

that makes you believe I am scum?
Do you have any reason to believe that MafiaSSK's assertion that his lurking helps him to find scum (because scum tend to try to lynch lurkers more than townies do) was false? Why or why not?

~~~

The only thing I have on you would be that you did not really consider the possibility that Tar was scum. I began to change my mind on Glork when I came to the conclusion below.

A question to those who have issues with my claim... Given that I basically stated that I was a dancing girl in my confirmation post, which do you find more likely:
A) I am a scum dancing girl; or
B) I am not a dancing girl but chose to cement the flavor of my role/claim before the game even began?.

This is a very good question. I was indeed previously considering him being a scum dancing girl, but there are some problems with considering that. The scum are the Moretti's right? And since they are a mob group associated with the club, it is unlikly that all of them would be dancers. And if they aren't all dancers and since scum in every game can always talk during pregame, I'm fairly certain Glork scum dancing girl would have realized his mistake of all players not being dancers alot sooner.

You weren't as tunnel visioned on Glork as Incognito was, but I never got the impression that you were keeping an open mind. Aside from that I haven't really got much on you alone.

And yes I think SSK's assumption is false for a few reasons.
1) Glork and Patrick made comments about MafiaSSK's lurkings away from deadlines and the two of them were both town. They didn't greatly push a lynch on Mafiassk, but they did notice and go after him at times outside of deadlines. Which proves town players can also go after him, not just scum will go after him.
2) "Paraphaseing" SSK said the lurking allows him to deduce more easily who is scum based on those that attack him. He only briefly mentioned Glork could be scum based on Glork's comments on MafiaSSK. Did MafiaSSK ever mention anyone else as being scum for commenting on him?

No.

And did other players notice and comment on is lurking outside of deadlines?

Yes

. I did, Cow did, Mizzy did, etc and yet he never said if he thought any of us were scum. Cow even voted and wanted to lynch him and SSK still didn't really say he thought cow was scum. SSK only responded when we asked questions and did not provide any aditional individual insight later on as to wether our attacks/comments made us scum. I think the only reason he truly commented on Glork was so that Glork would stop pressuring him and thus he could go back to lurking. Which he did go back to lurking.

For these reasons I think all his lurking was really doing, was an attempt to go unnoticed completly. I don't think it was a strategy bent on catching scum that noticed his lurking/tried to get him lynched outside deadlines. If his strategy was truly designed to do that, he would have voted and attacked people like me, hasdfgas, mizzy etc and tried to get us lynched for being scummy. He would not have gone just briefly after Glork alone.