Open 70 - Two of Four (b9) (Game Over!) before 595

[Cass]

Cass - Why do you believe me to be dcorbe's partner? You don't give much, or any reasoning in your post.

Mainly because the two of you are number 3 and 4 on my 'scummiest' list, and because Armlx and Farside seem so stronly connected to eachother. Not exactly proof, I know.

[skitzer]

Vote Count 8 of Day 2

(3) farside22 (dcorbe, ShadowGirl, Cass)
(2) dcorbe (strife220, farside22)
(2) Cass (armlx, LlamaFluff)
(0) ShadowGirl
(0) LlamaFluff
(0) strife220
(0) armlx

0) Not Voting

With

7

alive, it takes

4

to lynch!

Prodding dcorbe.

[ShadowGirl]

I apologize for taking awhile to answer this post - I haven't forgotten it.

I agree with dcorbe. I don't see what information we can possibly get out of Max's lynch - he hardly put up a defense and he was practically asking for it. How is speculating on possible scum partners for Max doing any good either - he didn't flip scum, no matter how much he seemed like it.

This discussion is getting us nowhere and only seems to be stirring things up for just the sake of it.

Vote: farside22

Im really pressed for time but I will comment on this later tonight when I have more then five minutes.

I think there is plenty of information to get out of the Max lynch. I did an analysis post on it and from what I figured out, Avinyl became my top suspect over SG.

The willingness of SG to ignore what happened there, especially as I didnt like the player she replaced in what he did during the Max lynch, a concern. I still see a much higher chance of SG scum the dcorbe, as ive seen him play this wierd reckless scummy play in ever game that I look at.

I would still say a lynch should be SG or avinly at this point though.

I'm not ignoring what happened, I'm just saying that we can only get so much from it. Considering how brash Max was playing, he was practically asking for it.

First of what will probally be at least a double post

Now in ShadowGirls first big analysis post, there are only two people mentioned, dcorbe, which I find interesting given how jtyder did a quick and unexplained “townie read” on him. Also there is mention of farside, for mostly being emotional, which again seems really unusual because emotional isn’t indicative of alignment. No vote was included on this first post.

To me, anything that is said in a post is a tell of someone's alignment. Also, I don't see how it's odd that me and jtyder think differently - we are different people.

You still are responsable for anything that jtyder did, just like I am responsable for anything alvinz did. The thing that was odd to me was that while jtyder seemed to dismiss him as a scum suspect too fast, you decided to make him one of your top picks. While dissention between replacees and replaced are common, the fact that it was to this much of an extream is noteable.

I do realize that I'm not getting a completely clean slate - a new beginning. As I've already said, me and jtyder are different people - I don't see why I need to think like him.

In the second analysis post, the scum from SG are dcorbe, Max (?!) and Armix. Dcorbe again is interesting to me for previous reasons, max is just stupid and I don’t know what to make of that, and then armix for a quick hammer, which is a much more sensical suspicion to me. No vote again from SG. Farside also has disappeard from this list, making me wonder why she was included on the first post.

Just because someone has slipped from my top three doesn't mean I've forgotten about them. Seeing as how alvinz has practically dissapeared from the thread and farside is active, it makes him seem as if he's hiding.

Well what is your current stance on farside then if you still are thinking about her? It seems something that would of been addressed in a second post of who is scummy given your thoughts in the first post that did mention her. Again the failure to vote here also is interesting, you have done two analysis posts and failed to vote in either.

I don't see why I'm obliged to vote Especially considering at the time I had just come in - I wanted to see the people in play.

Well, I attempted to get some scumtells, but when going through it, I got nothing. I plan on investigating someone else today.

Anyway, how's that coming along?

Well I am alvinz 2.0, a more reliable, more efficiant and with improved scumhunt(TM) abilities. My analysis of the thread says that you and avinyl are the best candidates for scum.

All jokes aside though, I would like to hear a case from you sometime soon, and thoughts on farside. As well as answers to anything I asked in this post.

Farside just seems a bit brash with every post she makes, and the things that happened page six sticks in my head. A breakdown and a self vote? This is a game - you shouldn't take things personally.

The vote on farside for trying to get people to look at the Max lynch wagon also bugs me. It gives a bit of a bad vibe, sort of like a guard saying "no you arent going in there" as they put their hand on a gun. A preimtive OMGUS if you will. I would like to hear an answer to 317 when you get the chance too.

I didn't vote for farside for looking in further to the Max lynch wagon, I voted for her because nothing productive was coming out of probing into it.

[strife220]

Checking in, not too much new to say.

I don't like how people are trying to connect partners. There are 7 alive, which means the chances of a townie spotting the pair is 7% statistically. We aren't lynching randomly, but I think the percentage should get across the idea why lynching one person based on a connection to another is a bad idea. One at a time here...

If the majority disagrees with a dcorbe lynch, the other 2 candidates appear to be farside and Cass. My initial read-through had me pinning farside as second most likely scum - D1 freakout probably being the biggest tell I found, D1 behaviour with regards to dcorbe. I don't fully understand the case against Cass so I'd have to reread her more closely to see what everyone else sees.

Still think dcorbe is too outright scummy to ignore though.

[armlx]

There are 7 alive, which means the chances of a townie spotting the pair is 7% statistically.

Odds mean nothing in the face of scum hunting.

[strife220]

Hence the qualifier: We aren't lynching randomly.

I guess that means you believe circumstantial evidence is worthwhile at this stage of the game?

[armlx]

I guess that means you believe circumstantial evidence is worthwhile at this stage of the game?

Depends on your definition.

I should also clarify my last post: I did not mean odds are irrelevant, but instead that scum hunting increases the odds of being right.

[dcorbe]

Hey guys, sorry for the delay. Real life has gotten in the way over the last week or so, but I will be posting some thoughts here shortly.

[Cass]

I don't like how people are trying to connect partners. There are 7 alive, which means the chances of a townie spotting the pair is 7% statistically. We aren't lynching randomly, but I think the percentage should get across the idea why lynching one person based on a connection to another is a bad idea. One at a time here...

Odds are nonsensical in this kind of game, they merely confuse people and muddy issues. In fact, I think throwing meaningless percentages like that around is pretty anti-town behaviour.

And I do look for pairs, because it's a fact that there is one. Also, an important way to find scum is to look for odd behaviour. And distancing or buddying can be one example of such behaviour.

In Farside's case, I see several odd things:
- distancing from Armlx, see my previous post
- naming dcorbe scum and connecting him to several different people (armlx, SG , not sure who number three is??), though she only recently voted dcorbe himself

Remember for this game there are 3 people I can see linked to dcorbe

- how she kept her vote on armlx for quite some time after naming two others as the scumpair.

[strife220]

I'd love to argue why Voting someone because you think you've found a scumpair on D2 isn't a very good idea, but this isn't the thread to do it. I'll just disagree with Cass and say that lynches should be decided one at a time unless there's a huge driving force otherwise. Lining up lynches is never a good thing.

[farside22]

I'd love to argue why Voting someone because you think you've found a scumpair on D2 isn't a very good idea, but this isn't the thread to do it. I'll just disagree with Cass and say that lynches should be decided one at a time unless there's a huge driving force otherwise. Lining up lynches is never a good thing.

It's not a bad thing to really look at to see who is connecting with who and why.
The 3 people I suspect to be paired with dcorbe is SG, Armix or Cass.

[LlamaFluff]

Now,

I had been holding back

in my previous post, to see if something would happen (Strife's post for example, or a slip-up) to make me more or less certain of things.
Before,

I thought that Farside was scum

(as I said). Strife's case, however, made me

see dcorbe as scummier

. The worst thing I think dcorbe did: He first said that 'the scum must already be on the wagon', and later he argued that it was no use to look for the scum on the wagon. Which makes me think that the scum

was

indeed on the wagon, and dcorbe knows this is the case.

Now what makes me doubt still, is that both dcorbe and Farside seem scummy, but

I'm pretty sure they are not scum together

- if I had to pick a partner for dcorbe, it'd be Shadowgirl. And just in case I get lynched before I get back (just happened in another game, so excuse my paranoia), here's my full opinion:

if

Farside flips scum, I think Armlx is the other one.

If

she flips town, I think dcorbe and SG are scum.
And yes, before someone asks, I withheld my opinion of Armlx on purpose in my earlier post. To see if there would be any buddying or distancing in the next posts.

I dislike the way Farside jumped on the dcorbe wagon after seeing SG's wagon fail. I also dislike her logic that because three people seem linked to dcorbe, dcorbe must be scum. Especially as she herself seems to do most of the linking. So

I still think a vote on her is the safer choice

. In my next post I shall argue more in depth what makes me suspect her.

Vote: farside22

Emphisis mine

I really dont see this logic that was laid out here. Cass thinks that dcorbe is scummier then farside as of paragraph one. During paragraph two they arent scum together, meaning there is going to be a choice as to who is more scummy. However in paragraph three, she opts to put farside at L-1 instead of dcorbe, because farside is a "safer bet". This goes against her logic of dcorbe is scummier then farside. The scummier player is always the safer bet.

Cass should still be todays lynch

[Cass]

@Llama: 'scummier': Yes, you're right, that was not worded very well, one could read it like that. What I

meant

to say is that after reading Strife's case I saw dcorbe as scummier than how I saw him before (when writing my first analysis).

Back then, my list would have been: 1) Farside 2)armlx 3)dcorbe

Right now, it is: 1)Farside 2)dcorbe 3)armlx

(Please cut me a tiny little bit of slack on the linguistics, english is not my first language.)

[LlamaFluff]

Regardless Cass, I still think you legitimately are the right lynch today. You not voting dcorbe and dcorbe not voting you only further my thoughts of scumpair.

We need to know the following things though (so consider them questions)

What ShadowGirls opinion on the slip is
What dcorbes opinion on Cass/Grimmy is
What ShadowGirls opinion on Cass/Grimmy is
What ShadowGirls opinon on dcorbe is
Why Cass says farside is a safe vote compared to dcorbe

[strife220]

You forgot:

What dcorbe thinks of everything from the last 2 weeks

[LlamaFluff]

mod

can we get some prods? We hit a 24 no post spell here and the lack of dcorbe and Shadow is hurting the game now.

@strife - that is a given, but his opinion on cass/grimmy is most important to me at this point in the game.

[Cass]

Why Cass says farside is a safe vote compared to dcorbe

Main reason) Because I think Farside is scummier (and as you said, always vote the scummiest out of two... scummies )

Secondary reason) Because I think (even if, god forbid, I should be wrong about Farside) knowing her alignment provides more information than knowing dcorbe's. We need information.

Also, I have not seen a convincing defense from her. I still feel safe about my vote.
@Farside: why did you wait to unvote armlx after naming two others as the scumpair? Is there anything else in my case against you that you want to respond to?

[skitzer]

Vote Count 9 of Day 2

(3) farside22 (dcorbe, ShadowGirl, Cass)
(2) dcorbe (strife220, farside22)
(2) Cass (armlx, LlamaFluff)
(0) ShadowGirl
(0) LlamaFluff
(0) strife220
(0) armlx

0) Not Voting

With

7

alive, it takes

4

to lynch!

Prodding dcorbe and ShadowGirl.

[farside22]

Why Cass says farside is a safe vote compared to dcorbe

Main reason) Because I think Farside is scummier (and as you said, always vote the scummiest out of two... scummies )

Secondary reason) Because I think (even if, god forbid, I should be wrong about Farside) knowing her alignment provides more information than knowing dcorbe's. We need information.

Also, I have not seen a convincing defense from her. I still feel safe about my vote.
@Farside: why did you wait to unvote armlx after naming two others as the scumpair? Is there anything else in my case against you that you want to respond to?

I wanted to press Armix more to see where he was at. He is sometimes a very hard person to get a read on and I still am not sure of him, but I'm more sure of him the Dcorbe.
Your post between Dcorbe and myself seemed more against him then I. What do you really think my lynch will tell that dcorbe's won't?

[strife220]

Secondary reason) Because I think (even if, god forbid, I should be wrong about Farside) knowing her alignment provides more information than knowing dcorbe's. We need information.

I'm interested in this comment. People often say it to justify their vote, but they seldom back it up. Obviously if the lynchee comes up scum then town rejoices and everything is roses - the more important and less addressed situation is the worst-case scenario.

Cass: If Farside gets lynched and comes up town, what information does that provide? If she's town, do you think you will know who one (or both) scum must be? If not, how do you justify this as a motivation to lynch her?

[Cass]

Cass: If Farside gets lynched and comes up town, what information does that provide? If she's town, do you think you will know who one (or both) scum must be? If not, how do you justify this as a motivation to lynch her?

Well, in the first place, I'm voting her because I think she will flip scum. In that case all her scumlists and interactions (mainly with Armlx and Dcorbe) will provide tons of information.
If she's town - well, it's hard to give actual examples before the fact, but I feel it would be more interesting than dcorbe flipping town (though much less so than dcorbe flipping scum, obviously). Knowing her alignment would give me a much clearer view on this game and all its interactions. I can perfectly imagine that others feel the same way about dcorbe (or about me, considering the vote count...).
Also answers Farside's question, I think.

Actually a pretty interesting question, now that I think about it. Allow me to bounce it around a bit.
@Armlx & Llamafluff - you both have a vote on me. Do you think it would be informative if I was lynched and flipped town? If so, how?

[ShadowGirl]

What ShadowGirls opinion on the slip is

Hm. The post is said with an immense amount of confidence, but I'm not quite sure if he would throw Grimmy under the bus. He'd be down one partner but he would be pretty much vindicated of any scumminess. I'm trying to think of likely the possibility of him being a cop is, but I don't see it as very high.

I'd like to hear from him about that statement.

What ShadowGirls opinion on Cass/Grimmy is

Grimmy doesn't seem to have been posting that much, and his last post that actually contained something useful was his PBA of dcorbe on page nine - with the verdict that dcorbe was a townie.

Cass seems to be be doing a lot of 'ifs'. And the phrase:

I still think a vote on her is the safer choice.

rubs the wrong way. Is there ever really a safe choice in a game of mafia? Unless you're mafia where lynching just about anyone is pretty safe.

What ShadowGirls opinon on dcorbe is

With the posts he's made he hasn't been scumhunting very aggressively, and as I've been in other games with him I find this a bit odd. He seems to want to veer away from the Max lynch by deeming it's a waste of time, but so is arguing over whether to look at it or not.

[farside22]

@Shadowgirl: You agreed with dcorbe about it being a waste of time and voted for me for bring it up.

FOS: Shadowgirl

[ShadowGirl]

It's also a waste of time to argue about it.

[ShadowGirl]

Ick. Pressed reply by accident.

What I meant is that if anyone found something of note in the Max lynch they would have said it already.