Open 82: Texas Justice Mafia (Game Over!) before 626

[somestrangeflea]

Texas Justice - Not really a game since 2008!

[The Fonz]

Texas Justice - Not really a game since 2008!

Just watch 'em add a scum roleblocker to the next iteration...

[Sun Tzu]

Ok, I like this plan.

[Crazy]

This could be manipulated by scum very easily. The only way is to use the dice feature on the forum, as scum could just lie about the results got from random.org.

[farside22]

This could be manipulated by scum very easily. The only way is to use the dice feature on the forum, as scum could just lie about the results got from random.org.

Use the dice code from here. Can't edit or fake the results.

[Crazy]

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (9) = 9

Original Roll String: 1d11

1 11-Sided Dice: (5) = 5

Original Roll String: 1d10

1 10-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

Original Roll String: 1d9

1 9-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

Original Roll String: 1d8

1 8-Sided Dice: (4) = 4

Original Roll String: 1d7

1 7-Sided Dice: (5) = 5

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (6) = 6

Original Roll String: 1d5

1 5-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

Original Roll String: 1d4

1 4-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

Original Roll String: 1d3

1 3-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

Original Roll String: 1d2

1 2-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

Original Roll String: 1d1

1 1-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[Crazy]

From that:

ClockworkRuse & Dcorbe
Light-Kun & Iron Man
farside22 & Crazy
somestrangeflea & Linehouse
Sun Tzu & The Fonz
Tom & ashmite84

I realize this may not be the final plan, but if we decide to do it, there is a completely random list.

[Light-kun]

Brilliant, I like it. But for the sake that no one should ever suspect Kira of being Kira, er, I mean, Light-kun of being Kira, as Light-kun cannot be Kira, I vote:

Vote: Clockworkruse

*Granted, I am ll up for the 73% chance of win.

[farside22]

Those numbers look odd. I guess because of the way he did it. Does anyone see anything wrong with how Crazy did those rolls?

[somestrangeflea]

Those numbers look odd. I guess because of the way he did it. Does anyone see anything wrong with how Crazy did those rolls?

Yes.

It ends with "1d1", the most pointless thing since the safety pencil.

[Tom]

Now, I'd like everyone's opinion on the validity or otherwise of the strategy of splitting everyone into pairs, no lynching, and demanding that

each player vig their opposite number.

(I'm still running the numbers here myself, but thought it could be interesting. One of my reasons for signing up for this was an interest in exploring the game theory. The other was because I want to vig Farside. )

Hold on. Don't you mean one player vig his opposite number while the other one doesn't do anything? If we ALL shoot each other, then we lose, correct?

That would mean that its actually Group 1 shooting their Group 2 partner.

From that:

ClockworkRuse & Dcorbe
Light-Kun & Iron Man
farside22 & Crazy
somestrangeflea & Linehouse
Sun Tzu & The Fonz
Tom & ashmite84

I realize this may not be the final plan, but if we decide to do it, there is a completely random list.

Just trying to understand here.

(also, OMG its Lawliet from epicmafia!)

[Iron Man]

Cant we just do a circle shoot? Then everyone gets shot, unless a scum deviates, which jut helps town. The only way for this to fail is if a scum would be ordered to shoot anther scum.

My idea:

Clock shoots Dcorbe. Dcorbe shoots Light. Light shoots me. I shoot farside. Farside shoots Crazy. Crazy shoots SSF. SSF shoot Linehouse. Linehouse shoots Sun Tzu. Sun Tzu shoots the fonz. The fonz shoots Tom. Tome shoots ashmite. Ashmite shoots Clockwor.

Any questions?

[Mirth]

Vote Count, Y'all

dcorbe 2 <-- farside22, The Fonz
Iron Man 1 <-- Crazy
The Fonz 1 <-- dcorbe
Linehouse 1 <-- somestrangeflea
Light-kun 1 <-- ClockworkRuse
somestrangeflea 1 <-- Linehouse
Crazy 1 <-- ashmite84


Not voting 4 <-- Light-kun, Iron Man, Sun Tzu, Tom

The vote in post 32 has not been counted as it is formated incorrectly. If you wish to vote, please bold the vote. Otherwise I shall be inclined to ignore it.

Now ah gotta git back ta the cattle

[somestrangeflea]

Now, I'd like everyone's opinion on the validity or otherwise of the strategy of splitting everyone into pairs, no lynching, and demanding that

each player vig their opposite number.

(I'm still running the numbers here myself, but thought it could be interesting. One of my reasons for signing up for this was an interest in exploring the game theory. The other was because I want to vig Farside. )

Hold on. Don't you mean one player vig his opposite number while the other one doesn't do anything? If we ALL shoot each other, then we lose, correct?

The scum group has only one bullet between them, per night. Thus, if two of the scum aren't paired together, they'll all die, whilst only being able to kill one of their respective shooters. Day dawns, all the Mafia are dead, 2 townies remain live, TOWN WINS!
If, on the other hand, two scum are paired together. They will obviously not shoot each other. The scum kill whoever is targeting the third Mafia member. The third mafia member dies, but so does their shooter. Meanwhile, all the remaining townies shoot each other dead. Day dawns, all the townies are dead, 1 Mafia is dead, 2 Mafia remain alive, TOWN LOSES!

[Crazy]

Cant we just do a circle shoot? Then everyone gets shot, unless a scum deviates, which jut helps town. The only way for this to fail is if a scum would be ordered to shoot anther scum.

That could also work, but you could be scum suggesting that knowing that it could fail, eh?

Okay, here's an explanation of how I did the die rolls...

-I pasted all the names on the first page into NotePad.
-I rolled a 12-sided die. I got a 2.
-ClockworkRuse is #2 on the list.
-I removed ClockworkRuse from the list.
-I rolled an 11-sided die. I got a 3.
-Dcorbe is #3 on the remaining list.
-I paired ClockworkRuse and Dcorbe.
-etc.

[somestrangeflea]

Cant we just do a circle shoot? Then everyone gets shot, unless a scum deviates, which jut helps town. The only way for this to fail is if a scum would be ordered to shoot anther scum.

That could also work, but you could be scum suggesting that knowing that it could fail, eh?

I'm rolling the idea around in my head whilst typing...

If there's a circle shoot, 2 people will live (because there's no overlaps, and everyone shoots, just like the pairs system). The people who will live are 2 of the 3 people preceded by Mafia.

Scum insta-wins if all three Mafia are in a row. (Two scum alive at dawn)
Scum insta-wins if two Mafia are in a row. (One scum, one town alive at dawn, scum endgames bulletless-town)
Town insta-win if all three Mafia are split up. (Two townies alive at dawn)

What I don't know is the probabilities of each the above situations, and, consequently, whether it's a better plan than the pairs system.

What I do know is that the circle-shoot plan allows a lynch, and thus gives town a shot at removing the "three mafia in a row" possibility and making the "two Mafia in a row" less likely.

[ClockworkRuse]

Well, can we try to figure the numbers for the circle shoot and compare them to the pairing shoot? We can see which one has a better possibility of succeeding and go from there.

[Light-kun]

Okay then
Circle theory.

Odds mafia member A is a on clock: 12/12
Odds that member b is next to A: 2/11
Odds that membe c is next to a or b: 2/10
Total odds of losing this(abc next to each other) way: 48/1320

However, this is irrelevant. If only 2 mafia members are side by side, then we lose by 1 townie versus 1 mafia. (or 2 mafia 1 town, depending on mafia's actions.)

So, that means the odds of a mafia win is Going to be 2/11 because the 12/12=1 thus, 1*2/11=2/11 But, there is still member c, who has the ability to increase the odds of a mafia win by also attempting to win.

Thus, the first shot: 2/11
Without the space, the member c has a 4/10 for winning! That means that the odds of us losing ultimately reach 58% (18.18% for the ab combo, and 30-40% for the ab or bc combo. The only time it is thirty is if a and b happen to land a seat apart, which reduce's C's win positions from four possible to three.)

73%>42-52%

[somestrangeflea]

Any chance you could factor in the possible results of a lynch into the circle theory?

[Crazy]

If we lynch a mafia, the odds of the circle thing failing is 2/11, which is 18%. So that's an 82% chance that we win.

I've done some test trials on random.org of that circle method (before this game started), though, and the results seem more favored to the town than 42-52%. I'd like to do an experimental batch of these (say, 100) and see what results I get.

[Crazy]

EBWOP: I'm thinking Light could be right. I don't understand his math, but I just did 100 tests of the circle method on random.org (with 3 mafia). The results were:

Town won: 56 times
Scum won: 44 times

That's definitely not something we want to go on.

[Iron Man]

Wow. This is definitly not Texas. There is no way in hell Texas could do this much math.

[The Fonz]

My connection will almost certainly give out before i get the chance to post the full results, but i make the circle method roughly twice as likely as the pairs method to produce a scum win.

[farside22]

Something about the circle method rubs me wrong. I think random dice work better. I just don't know the odds like the Fonz does. I just can see scum being one behind the other for them to win this way. I don't know why people have issues with the random dice.

[Crazy]

I agree with farside. I'm still gonna kill him though.