Alisae V Pine: Trees Apparently Make Good Treestumps

[Wooper]

common themes on jjh/ank:

scumread/lean mena
townread/lean maria

kinda grey what happened n1 w ank; whether or not she was the scum kill i respect her reads a LOT and she was obviously >rand here

[Alisae]

She was definitely not the scum kill she hid behind scum
Nacho was vig shot
And GreyICE kills as blocked.

Just look at the kill flavor

[Alisae]

Dunn was 100% a mech kill
After seeing your last kill fail, why would you risk having that happen to you again?

[Alisae]

He wanted to lynch Iconeum (LOL)

[Alisae]

I told them my plan to just come out of the gates voting maria and they were okay with it but scum have no reason to know that was a thing I was going to do.

[Something_Smart]

Are you against voting Gamma instead?

[Alisae]

Its not that I’m against it, I definitely think he’s scum
I just want the game to end quicker.
I could just lynch GE and Dann and Cephir.

Its a matter of “Ok, do I want to lynch MariaR on D10 and waste time or do I want to lynch her on D7 and not waste time”

[Something_Smart]

We might have investigation results by D10 though.

[Alisae]

Idunno u tell me
If u knew u were going to lose the game, would you want to lose it on D7, or D10?

[Alisae]

We might have investigation results by D10 though.

let me ask you a different question
Do you scumread Iconeum?
Because this assumes that you definitely trust PB.

[Something_Smart]

I don't scumread Iconeum, but I do trust PB.

[Alisae]

Then you should have no problems with a mariar lynch

[Something_Smart]

Aren't you more confident on Gamma/Dann/Ceph though?

[Alisae]

Yes but I would rather lose the game on D7 then D10.
Sure there could be an investigation result. Maybe I could save 2 more lives.
But I really don’t want to rely on that stuff. And also it would feel kinda super cheese if PB did get a guilty or I did save 2 more people.

[Alisae]

Plus I’m as confident in Ico town as I am in Cephir, Dann, Gamma scum, so MariaR is left and she goes in the scumbin anyway

[Wooper]

572 shade towards {ari,chenn,dgb} fluff response to pp
582 wants to battle my reads later. defends jh against ank. fireb town. calls chenn's "opportunistic mena" comment pot/kettle. shades ari. town dann.
584 fb, chick, dann town (rule of 3s if ico is scum +1 partner equity to dann). game too big for more opinions. vanity votes chenn (vs. wagons

tw

,

fireb

, mena,

xof

,

ari

,

chick

) - .... towny vote i think
585 will fight me before reading me
590 fireb not scum for pine/fruit intxns
593 double down on dann tr for seeing opportunistic chenn
594 read on chick is tone; this read isn't ai
985 presses chennis for more info
986 gamma pinging (this callout makes me think they're not aligned)
1004 missed chennis mason claim; doesn't move vote - how serious was chennis mason claim d1? i missed it. ΅

worth noting gamma makes the "i'm an easy target because i'm behind" argument; iconeum is ~equally behind but is advancing the gamestate. still voting chenn. sits there til EOD. sits vanity voting (or 1/2 with pops) til EOD.

1038 i kinda pushed him off GEm; he's still pushing chenn
1510 reminder that GEm/chenn are sketchy and chenn is UTR. lld wagon forming at {GICE, tw, kats, krazzy, jjh} => {GICE, tw, kats, krazzy, ank, pops}

if icon is scum he was probably hoping to swing a wagon over lld but his townread of her was pretty ineffectual and the chennwagon remained vanity. not sure he was trying anything fancy here; i'm not sure scum!icon wouldn't have just voted one of the established wagons. regardless; opening lld wagon is insanely pure and i think if ico/lld is a thing krazzy actually was probably town ;s

1517 shade fishy for defence of gamma; kinda odd standard since iirc i defended gamma for flimsy reasons d1 as well. i was the one ico was keen to fight. this never eventuated. but i was v/la
1523 not really interested in engaging with fishy
2160 is like a proper ico deathtunnel, he's kind of finding it hard to focus on having other reads (deflective towards me/fishy; hot and cold on GEm...)
2167 doesn't really see scum!LLD & defends her on wifom. we saw a lot of emotive defences of LLD d1 (ari xof etc.) who have flipped town. this one actually feels like a kinda convoluted reason to townread someone.
2175 turns down request to vote LLD

at this point LLD wagon is {

greyice

,

tw

,

kats

, krazzy,

ank

,

fishy

,

pops

, mariar, dann} so it ~could~ be getting dirty; there's reason to avoid as both alignments imo

2204 heavily appeals to ali not to make a mistake; remains fairly ineffectual in gamestate
2212 calls LLD for comments on her scum!pops read ("Gut, mostly. It's just there and it won't go and he's too cheeky and nope scum scum scum")
2216 calls LLD for her gamma/me reads (after we're omitted from her scumreads) ("Gamma town as hell. Worst is kind of weird and middling.")

ico never responds to her responses in quotation marks in parentheses; i don't really get why he asked these questions

2220 emotionally defends LLD for making a scummy claim; again mechanical defence of her is probably closer to s/s indicative than the emotive defences we saw from other slots. "why would scum!LLD do that~~~?"
2228 i'm quoting: "I'm 100% sure there are players in this list that are extremely hard to read. If you give commuter to town, why not give it to someone very much capable of obvtowning down the road? I don't know LLD but from what i've seen I think she's probabllllyy capable of doing so". greyice responsd to this with this. iconeum ignores greyice.
2232 @fireb "me asking questions all game is NAI"
2269 after GICE asks ico whether he learned anything from being hardcore pocketed in a recent towngame: he learned not to blindly assume someone is town just because they are defending you. don't think he catches the point that GICE was calling for elaboration on LLD read.
2289 scumcase on chenn is like, buzzwords...he wants chenn lynched because he smells bad and yet LLD is town who claimed a scum power role and per GICE meta check is capable of obvtowning later in the game AS SCUM but ico doesn't need to respond to this - just remember this double standard.



then gone til mid-d3


ali......

[Wooper]

when it hits the crunch ico:
1) vanity votes chennisden, who he can't string a tangible scumcase together on.
2) applies a gaping doublestandard to flailing scum LLD
3) camps vanity wagon & refuses to join wagon with {mariar,dann} as recent entrants
4) can't focus on requests to go deeper on his read of LLD; ignores GICE's meta check against his townread on LLD
5) struggles to have other tangible relevant reads except scum!chenn (which is a crap read on LHF) and a hardcore townread on LLD (now flipped scum)

we need to have a dialogue about this.

[Something_Smart]

I mean... if we assume that Gamma/Dann/Ceph are all scum, and PB is town, and scum don't have any remaining way to kill or block PB, then we have a good chance to win without knowing the last scum, by lynching those three and protecting PB every night. Eventually it will come to PB + Iconeum/Maria/Menalque going into nights, and all PB has to do is randomize his track for a 5/6 chance of winning without any reads at all.

From those assumptions, our EV jumps from 1/3 to 5/6 if we lynch the known scum first. That's not negligible.

[Alisae]

Ok lets talk about it unvote mariar first tho

[Alisae]

I mean... if we assume that Gamma/Dann/Ceph are all scum, and PB is town, and scum don't have any remaining way to kill or block PB, then we have a good chance to win without knowing the last scum, by lynching those three and protecting PB every night. Eventually it will come to PB + Iconeum/Maria/Menalque going into nights, and all PB has to do is randomize his track for a 5/6 chance of winning without any reads at all.

From those assumptions, our EV jumps from 1/3 to 5/6 if we lynch the known scum first. That's not negligible.

he was blocked N5

[Wooper]

UNVOTE:

it's half past midnight and i am w i i i p e d
and i have a lot of work tomorrow

i'll try my best. this phase may end up lagging a lil.

[Alisae]

You need to realize something thats very important SS
the track result would be the most important BEFORE the last scum is left alive.
As soon as D10 actually hits and no one dies, we are stuck with F4 of PB, Iconeum, Mena, Maria
I actually hate that F4 because simply put, its going to get very inactive very quickly.

And even then, its just going to be a 1v1 with Iconeum and Maria

[Gamma Emerald]

if ur town just vote mariar
I've just accepted that if I'm not 4/4 on my reads, we lost the game, and while we could lynch obvious scum, I don't want to drag the game out any longer.
Its to the point where if ur name isn't Mena, SS, or wooper, I'm most likely going to not see your posts (literally)

Sorry but I’ve been a weird streak where I’ve had a 50/50 win loss rate recently and I need a win to keep the balance I believe and I really do not mind 50/50 rn
So let’s actually try this game?

[Something_Smart]

As soon as D10 actually hits and no one dies, we are stuck with F4 of PB, Iconeum, Mena, Maria

You think scum would go for the draw after all that?

[Something_Smart]

he was blocked N5

Oh, that's even better, because either it's one-shot like Pine said, or one of the scum members is the roleblocker and the odds are good we'll lynch them before N9.