Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[Oman]

Up to page 6. Need to utilise the last of the daylight, this is taking longer than I thought!

[Oman]

I'm going to try to avoid quote tags because of the huge space it will consume.

Adel

Before the Re-read

The thing with Adel is that she is wildly unpredictable, dangerous to both scum and town, and yet marvelously amazingly good at this game. Basically, she's Maveric from Top Gun. This makes her current play unreadable at a glance, will require more of a reread.

During the Re-read

Post 100: "cicero/Simenon scumgroup +1 " Adel gets town points for coming to the same conclusion as me.
Gets more Adel later in the 300s
Post 346: "I'm electing not to interact with ckd for a while, preferring civil company. " Complete bullshit. This is a terrible work.

TownDel

BillyTwilight

Before the Re-read

Billy is one of the only players I've never played with here. I have nothing on him except that he seems to post very sporadically, but with good content. I'll have to read him harder too.

During the Re-read

Lurky lurky, pops in to say "Tl;Dr = too long; didn't read"

Scummytwilight

cicero

Before the Re-read

Cicero's main issue was the first major wagon of the game, and what I thought to be a terrible(!) response and defence. I didn't notice him so much later in the game.

During the Re-read

Post 40: "Your bandwagon isn't right. I am town. And I suppose I could vote you for voting me with no reason, but the truth is being a cheeky bugger early in the game is probably a town tell. " This is what kicked it off for me. Cicero writes of someone as town early, something I like to do as scum. Not only that, he does it for a null tell, and does something I hate, states himself town. He continues in the subsequent posts, it just seems to be bad logic.
Post 47: "Be warned, however, that I think you thinking my opinion is scummy is in fact scummy so voting me will result in me voting you." This is terrible, obviously terrible.
Post 83: Cicero says Sim is scum several times but is still voting adel. The switches to Erg0 with this: "(like I dont have enough early enemies in the game, let's open up a WHOLE NEW FRONT!.) to draw attention to the fact that he is speaking only when spoken to (I call this my "Candyman" scumtell, and find it surprisingly effective) and, in responding, avoided taking a stand on the issues in play. Instead, he just posted fluff. " TO DRAW ATTENTION? You think you've found scum yet you're valiantly going off to draw attention to someone who isn't posting much?
Pops in 210 to dump on CKD. Seems like he only posted when he had enough ammunition to take someone out.

Scummy

curiouskarmadog

Before the Re-read

CKD has been stated a few times as being CKD+cicero. I'll be looking specifically at this, but try without confirmation bias at this point.

During the Re-read

137 CKD unvotes. His vote doesn't go anywhere else. I don't like it, it feels like he's trying to make it look like he's actually doing stuff without making an impact.

TowniouskarmaDog

Erg0

Before the Re-read

Erg0 has posted little, I hope to gleam much from it though.

During the Re-read

Nothing.

Bad! Scumg0/Towng0, no read.

Jitsu

Before the Re-read

Jitsu seems to be playing as Jitsu does, however, there is no meta for him. I think I'll have to take a look at what he is posting blindly, and look for the more "universal" tells.

During the Re-read

Post 166 is Jitsu's first killer post. And it just smells town to me.

Townsu

shaft.ed

Before the Re-read

Confrontational from memory, I'd be interested in seeing what causes this, where it starts, and what ends it (if anything).

During the Re-read

The first thing in the game that sticks out in the whole game is shaft.ed's post 14: To sim Re: Cicerowagon "You must persuade me towards your wagon."
Firstly, there is no way Simeon would be able to persuade him as we're 14 posts into the game, there is nothing. The only thing would be the strength of early wagons, which shaft.ed knows and accepts that this is/could be a wagon.
Post 22: "You had me at no. unvote vote: Oman " after turning down the cicero wagon, he jumps on mine. For the same reasoning.
CKD vote in ~198 is bothering.
The Jitsu: Exploit/openings thing is lame in 217\

Scumt.ed

Shanba

Before the Re-read

Scummy in the lurking, but thats about it. I wish there was more I could do with this, but there really isn't.

During the Re-read

Post 96 is obviously troublesome: "Unvote Vote: Oman I dislike cicero's defence of himself. "

Absent

Simenon

Before the Re-read

Another of the players I've never played with. Seems to take a very logical approach to the game, doesn't seem to put a face on every play, which I like for town. However, its easily faked, I'll have to read deeply.

During the Re-read

Sim seems pretty decent during cicerobash, he doesn't push too hard or anything. The early jump off is definatly concerning.
Post 180: He explains it well, but again jumps to the biggest wagon bar mine.

Townenon

The Fonz

Before the Re-read

Haven't really played with this guy since my first game ever. I don't know where he sits at the moment, haven't payed a lot of attention to him.

During the Re-read

Even at post 107 Fonz has not really contributed much to either side of any wagons. He sits the fence a lot (is this normal for him?)
Post 142: "Guys, a couple of you seem to have made comments in that direction, so why not join me in a shaft.ed wagon?" No-one really did, I don't know what he's talking about.
Accuses shaft.ed of lurking in plain sight..which is what he's been doing.

The Scumz

vollkan

Before the Re-read

Vollkan is a dangerous man. He is quite apt at manipulating a town, and I'm weary of him for that. I dislike his PBPA, I feel they could have had a lot more if he chose to do so, however, could easily be a townsperson who is not wanting to waste a lot of time.

During the Re-read

Wow, nothing here.

Townkan

Vote Cicero

FoS The Fonz, BT

[vollkan]

shaft.ed

0: Random vote
1: Says that he won't join the Cicero wagon unless persuaded to do so. This becomes relevant later on.
2: Nothing
3: Nothing
4: Okay. So, in 1 shaft.ed doesn't wagon because he has not been convinced. Here, he joins the Oman wagon without persuasion (actually, in response to a jokey post by me). It's odd that he is reluctant in the case of Cicero, but very willing in the case of Oman. I'd like shaft.ed to explain this himself, rather than give my own thoughts about various motivations.
5: Nothing
6: Nothing
7: Disagrees with Cicero's labelling of Sim's jokey play as a town-tell
8: Meta on Adel, Cicero, and myself.
9: Queries (rightly) Shanba's Oman vote.
10: Responds to Cicero. I don't get anything significant either way from this.
11: Makes a good observation about Simenon changing from Cicero despite seeming to find him scummy.
12: Asks whether Shanba and Billy are usually as quiet as Erg0 in early game
13: Notes Adel's calmness
14: Request for an Oman wagon was a joke
15: Nothing
16: Posits that Adel is being overly-cautious and is worried by this. As I have said a few times now, I really dislike the insinuations made against Adel's style-shift. Tricksy behaviour is less likely to work in this game, and it is reasonable that Adel would be more normal, just on principle. I know that shaft.ed is capable of more nuanced reasoning than that which he shows here, just to insinuate that he is worried about an understandable style-shift.
17: Nothing
18: Asks whether he is wrong in noting that Adel's play is significantly different
19: Recognises that Adel makes a good meta justification of her play
20: Thinks it was odd that Adel singled out the importance of Erg0 taking her at face value
21: Makes the point of noting a consensus that Adel's play is much more conservative than usual. Again, I can't see the point of this. Notes the non-contribution of Shanba, Jitsu, Billy and Erg0
22: Says his attack on Oman for moving the wagon to Cicero was for reaction-gauging.
23: "So it doesn't bother you when a player's style changes 180 degrees from their norm?" The question itself is phrased in a manner that clearly presumes that being bothered is somehow the natural response. Again, shaft.ed attacks Adel for something that I really don't think can be construed as alignment-related. This was, by the way, in response to Fonz requesting shaft.ed's lynch seemingly over the focus upon Adel's style
24: Says Adel is more reserved as scum than town, but adds the note that the obviousness of her conservative play here is further cause for confusion. His focus on this non-issue is also a cause for confusion.
25: Asks for prod on Shanba
26: This is a very interesting post. Shaft.ed begins by saying his point on Adel is being blown up a bit, and says it can be neatly captured in the post 24 statement that: "From the games I've played with her Adel has a more reserved feel as scum than as town, but this is so glaringly obvious I don't know what to make of it." Now, the important thing here is that this is the most equivocal and indefinite statement shaft.ed makes on the issue. What I mean is that shaft.ed quotes as indicative of his general attitude the post where he least directly insinuates that he finds scumminess in Adel's play (or, rather, where he sees the potential scumminess as potentially waived by the obviousness). He then says he wanted people on record because it was a relevant point (cute, but the wording of post 23 suggests quite clearly that you yourself had an agenda) and that he wanted to see if he was over-interpreting the play (jump of the titanic before it sets sail). Rightly queries CKD's unvote, and votes accordingly.
27: Good analysis of CKD's unvote (he makes the Adel post 49 point that I missed).
28: Asks why, if CKD was startled by the wagon, he didn't take action against the wagoners. A good question.
29: Says that he was not accusing Oman by saying "quietly notices Oman's shifting the wagon to cicero" but was simply waiting for reaction. Responds well to CKD's "Why are you forcing me to vote?" dodgy question.
30: Notes Jitsu's hair-splitting and guardedness. Needless to say, I agree emphatically. Also makes the point that Jitsu was quick to accept CKD's answer simply because it was "logical", which is a standard of proof that basically allows anybody (well, anybody in a game of this standard) to escape responsibility.
31: Suggests CKD may have voted Shanba to distance, but then became scared when the wagon accelerated. I actually think that scum-CKD voting town-Shanba and not wanting to be on the wagon is more likely, but an awkward abandon in the way shaft.ed suggests is valid.
32: Votes Jitsu on the exploit thing. FTR, I read the word 'exploit' in the sense of 'Nike exploits developing-world labour' and, so, I do see Jitsu's post as a potential Freudian. Thus, the vote here doesn't seem opportunistic to me.
33: Explains his non-delay in raising his CKD concerns
34: Nothing
35: Things Jitsu's potential slip warrants pressure. I don't have a problem with this.
36: More on Adel usually being a pot-stirrer.
37: Nothing
38: Is awaiting replies from Jitsu and myself. Doesn't think I am scummy.
39: Explains his interpretation of "exploit"
40: Asks for quote tag repair
41: Notes Fonz is lurking in plain sight
42: Wonders how Cicero can call my case on Jitsu disingenuous whilst also largely agreeing with me.
43: Nothing
44: Nothing
45: A few questions.
46: Nothing
47: Admits he wrongly mixed-up narrow-mindedness with tunnel-vision
48: Notes CKD's tendency to make short, rapid posts
49: Thinks it is odd for scum-Adel to solo-drive a wagon. Also thinks CKD's play is not really different from town-CKD. I think this is true, but this overlooks the importance of the substance of CKD's play here (which is reasonably scummier than CKD-on-average)
50: Nothing
51: Disagrees (rightly) with Adel's suggestion that CKD's emotional outburst was potentially contrived.
52: Acknowledged WIFOM on Adel
53: Asks what the people who dislike my attacks on Jitsu think of our recent exchange
54: Very ambivalent post. He says he agrees with Adel's statement that scum are more likely intererested in how people perceive them than town (This is something I disagree with. Any town player has an interest in how people evaluate them, if only due to holding people to account and forcing openness.) but he also concedes that it is not a huge tell, and can be a town tell. As such, he hardly agrees with Adel.
55: Votes Oman for lurking in plain sight.
56: Thinks Oman's justification by relying on Adel's style shift is scummy. I don't feel strongly either way on this point, but I do wonder why shaft.ed raises Adel's reversion to her usual style as somehow constituting a point against Oman.
57: Asks whether Adel agrees with the reasoning that the only scummy reason for CKD's unvote would be if he was scum with Shanba
58: EBWOP
59: Thinks Oman is posting hot air
60: Doesn't think I am engaged and am Jitsu-centric. That's the cost of me not PBPAing.
61: Nothing
62: Thinks CKD's unvote was off. Agreed. Doesn't think the Cicero request was important. Agreed. Notes that CKD has largely confined his analysis of Adel to defensive posts and asks whether he has actually done any additional investigation. Thinks Sim, Cicero, and Adel have been pulling the game along, whilst Oman and I have been coasting (I've tried to change that).
63: Nothing
64: Questions Oman
65: Notes the inadequacy of Oman's response.
66: Maintains that he doesn't see anything scummy with the unvote outside a CKD-Shanba partnership. Shaft.ed, why don't you think that CKD wanting to avoid being on a Shanbatown wagon is valid/likely?
67: Thinks there is potential for the Vollkan Effect. Again, House is distinguishable
68: More on the Effect
69: Scumlist is Oman (for passive play), CKD (for the unvote), and Fonz (seems to be for accusing shaft.ed of lurking and then vanishing. Weakest of the three in terms of his reasons)
70: Would rather lynch a poster than a non-poster.
71: Wants Shanba to be replaced, and wonders after the lurkers.
72: Nothing
73: Notes need for information
74: Nothing
~~~~~~~~~~~
After House, shaft.ed is always going to be a cause of nightmares for me in mafia. Here, I largely agree with a lot of shaft.ed's positions (but, metawise, that is very common, so I don't see that as a towntell for him at this stage of things). There is also very little than I have problems with, the biggest scummy thing being the way he harped on about Adel's style shift. I give shaft.ed a

30%

[Simenon]

I'm not voting for CKD unless it's necessary.

[vollkan]

Shanba

0: Random vote.
1: Swaps vote to Oman. No reason given. Says he doesn't like Cicero's defense of himself. The words don't match the vote.
2: Promises content
3: Says his vote was not on Oman because of not liking Cicero's defense of himself (that was one interpretation of his words).
~~~~~~~~~~
Devoid of content. That said, the fact he would vote Oman for no given reason whilst expressing suspicion of Cicero is very strange.

28%

. Needs to be given an ass-kicking, or replaced. This activity level is NOT sustainable.

[curiouskarmadog]

point on vollkan, I feel his playstyle has been changing as of late...due to ongoing games I can not go into detail yet, but I am used to a different vollkan.

What do you think this means? I understand you can't comment on his behavior in ongoing games, but can't you still make comparisons between his behavior here in this game and his other completed games?

Well, I would immediately say that I find this strange and quite scummy, however, I have made that mistake in regards to vollkan recently (meta my games for more information)...besides, he is not doing a pretty thorough break down of people..and once he is done, that comparsion could be important (later)....I am not advocating making town/scum lists (never for town lists)..but I think it is important for people to make stances today.

The unvote was very bad, as was his subsequent explanation of it.

I know at this point you dont know what my alignment is, but I request that we discuss this issue (which some points to as proof I am scum) at end game when we all know each other's alignment. Right now I dont think this is a point. I dont vote (not including random voting) usually just to vote. So if I feel like my vote shoudnt be on someone I remove it. Even though I dont have a place to put it. I keep tracks of my stats and lynches. I dont jump on wagons to jump on wagons and I dont lynch to lynch. I have trying to improve my lynched right/lynch wrong ratio. Currently I have 17 right 15 wrong as town. This means little, unless you compare it to the amount of games I am in. I have been in 33 completed games, and have been part of 33 lynches. that is one lynch per game on average. I simply dont jump on wagons unless I feel there is something there. same goes for staying on them. Right now, I dont know if these attacks about this unvote are scum driven or not. I think that they are, but I also understand that day 1 people are looking for ANYTHING that COULD BE scummy.

So after the game ends, if Adel (and others) could come back (or stay around) for a discussion on this issue. Obviously I am paranoid about people's REAL opinion on this, right now. I am curious how people will defend this as a scum action, once my alignment is known. ATM, I think it is scum fueled...but if it is not, I am still curious.

BT last post I need to address, some flaws in it.

he spent a non trivial amount of time referencing past games and getting conversation turned to Adel's "narrow-mindedness", etc, which I don't feel was very valid at the time.

First of all it is Day 1, without a night to go off. What else do you talk about other than game theory? Also, if you remember, I started off the conversation with, I dont think that Adel is very narrowminded at all. Then I was told I was wrong, and Adel even mentioned that her labels...so you have no right to say that I steered the conversation that way.

I am unequivocally against lynching a lurker.

says the man who has been lurking a good portion of the game. SO if you are scum and your partner was lurking, wouldnt you be pushing the same thing? This is why many lurkerscum win...I hope you dont plan on having this theory all game. For if you are not scum, you just game them a game plan to avoid your vote. Just for the record, BT, who do you feel should be put in a lurker category today?

This being said, I think that people should vote for who they think is scum. Not a lurker, unless you think that their lurking in this game is scummy or the few posts they have posted are scummy.

+++

Thoughts on players

Adel, I have stated my opinion on Adel. She is pushing a case on me that she can not possibly believe. She is trying to spin my every action into a scummy one. If I am hung today (or vigged tonight), I am quite interested how she is preparing to defend her actions tomorrow. For I do hope she is put into the crucible for her attacks today. Now, she is pushing for dice tags…maybe she can possibly believe that crappy case. Pushes for my lynch again, when BT calls her out for more bad logic.

BT, Have not been impressed (until the past couple of pages) and I am not sure what he is doing in this game. We are 20 pages into this game, and he has only posted 10 posts. (make that 12 as I am putting this together), though he has a reason. Also against lynching a lurker(I think this REALLY needs to be noted for later). I would be interested to see if this is a common argument he makes as town in other games…if I have time I might do a meta. Most of his posts which are comments and votes on the hot wagon of the hour. This isn’t completely accurate though as of late, he is still pushing my wagon, and that has died off, but just got support again from Adel.

He makes a good point here.

I completely disagree with Assumption 2. A CKD lynch should give YOU of all people more information than you could hope for today. He's listed in about half of your possible scum-pairings right? There has been a preponderance of players commenting on, attacking, and defending CKD. Knowing his alignment would go a long way to unraveling day 1 info. Plus, you CLAIM TO THINK HE IS SCUM.

BT, why do you think that Adeltown would be pushing for dicetag to lynch a lurker, when she has pushed all day that I am scum. I know you mentioned you are nervous about it, but why do you think she is doing it today? She stands behind her “logic” and wants everyone to believe I am scum, but now a deadline looms she just wants to use dicetags to determine a lynch. I haven’t decided on BT. Gut says scum, but rereading his posts and seeing that he isn’t supporting a lurker vote when it would be easy to do so, sort of indicates town for me. Unless he knows that all the lurker lynch possibilities are town, but this is a stretch.

Cicero, I enjoy my games with Cicero. In both games we shared I thought he was scum at one point or another (in both games he was town). Seems to be defending me somewhat, and it is appreciated. Though, it should be noted, it is easier to defend someone as town, when you know they are town. As the day comes to a close, I am interested to see where his votes actually ends up.

Ergo, pretty low content all game (couple posts more than BT). Promised more 6 days ago. Has done absolutely no scum hunting. Disappointing. Currently still has his random vote on Oman. How is this pro-town? Your thoughts on Oman currently? Not impressed at all.

Jitsu, I have not gotten any scum tells from Jitsu. I am not sure I understand vollkan’s attack against him or why he has him as the scummiest (thus far). He is asking questions, “probing”, and filling this game with his opinion on content. Though I feel his post frequency is quite lower than I have seen from him. That being said, got a good feeling about him.

Oman, seems like he has been the vote leader for awhile and I am not sure why. Especially with all the action that has been happening in the past week. He is almost like the negative imagine of Jitsu. High post frequency, but little content per post. I am beginning to get a better read on Oman has I play with him more. My meta on him says town.

Shafted, Is a good player. As I play with my heart on my sleeve, post with emotion, and hate to proofread, shafted, is thought out and meticulous. This makes shafted a good player as town and scum (I have seen him as both). I am in the middle of the road on shafted at the moment. For those that saw shafted’s performance in House mafia, you know what a good scum he can be…that makes me hesitant to go one way or the other Day 1.

Shanba, lurker. Plan and simple. His last post, demonstrates that he really has not read the thread, but just posted based on a skim. I think that and his vote on Oman that he has left and has not removed (even though he knows there is a deadline and he has not read) is scummy. I think his lurking in this manner is scummy. Leaning scum.

Simenon, I don’t know why, but I feel like Simenon is disingenuous. It is just a feeling or a vibe. He post seem coy to me for some reason. I don’t think I have played enough with Simenon to know his play. You state you will not vote me unless you have too, I am curious Sime, what circumstances would make you “have too”? You mentioned you don’t like Cicero and Adel’s efforts to remove lurkers, what do you think of BT’s thoughts…Adel’s vote change and BT called her out?

The Fonz, THE BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT OF THE GAME. Fonz is a great player. I put him in the category of shafted. He has bested me as scum. I was looking forward to seeing him in action this game. His lurking is sad and I am not sure what to make of it. He attacked shafted for lurking in plan site, then disappears. Would scum do that?...seems like a poor play that is below Fonz. Of course, it is a poor play if he is town too.

Vollkan, has always been a tough nut to crack. Like shafted and the fonz, he plays well as scum and town. His play before his player break downs were suspicious, but due to a current meta is a null tell. I like reading his break downs and I appreciate that fact that he is putting his takes and stances today of everyone, when so many are not. I am interesting where his vote will end up today…I am leaning town.

[Oman]

Oman, seems like he has been the vote leader for awhile and I am not sure why. Especially with all the action that has been happening in the past week.

Basically no-one voted or unvoted during all this discussion, and when they did, it didn't go above the three I had.

[vollkan]

Simenon

0: Votes Cicero and requests wagon. Seems to be random, flippant and not pressuring
1: Nothing
2: Notes BT does not vote Cicero
3: Nothing
4: More of the flippant anti-Cicero
5: Says the wagon did become serious, despite the tongue-in-cheek origins
6: Says it was not a joke to begin with, in the sense that the wagon was intended to serve utility as a means of generating a good game-start. I don't ascribe to wagoning as a tactic universally, but I think it perfectly legitimate. Is clear in differentiating that the wagon being serious is different for his reasons for suspecting Cicero: namely his town-tell labelling and use of threat (both of these points I am in agreement with Simenon on).
7: Nothing
8: Theory on early D1 strategy
9: Reiterates his distinction between the reasons for wagoning Cicero and the reasons for suspecting Cicero
10: Votes Erg0 because the posting style he is adopting is not meta-consistent
11: Also says he changed because the Cicero wagon had become lame
12: Elaborates on the death of the Cicero wagon's utility.
13: Again, we need to wagon for information.
14: Nothing
15: Thinks Erg0 is being lazy
16: Nothing
17: Nothing
18: Nothing
19: Assumes that Oman's use of tl;dr meant he never read the post.
20: Swaps to Shanba. He lists his reasons (which earns style points from me) and, again, it is based on pressure and/or information-gathering
21: Nothing
22: Swaps to Shaft.ed for the exploitation vote. I disagree with Simenon here. The word "exploit" carries a strong negative connotation and the fact that Jitsu committed a potentially huge slip is legitimate basis for a vote. The second thing dealt with in this post is that Simenon expresses his agreement with Adel's assertion about my attacks on Jitsu. He says he prefers shaft.ed due to him thinking I am not scum unless shaft.ed is (unclear how that works), but that doesn't excuse his support for what I've said again and again is an atrocious basis for suspicion.
23: Thinks shaft.ed misses the context but, again, I reiterate my point about the language he uses. Of course it's conceivable that Jitsu just chose awkward words, but it is still a potential slip. Acknowledges the point against me is "gut"
24: Says the context determines whether or not it can be considered a slip. I don't see how this works. It wasn't clear from the context what Jitsu meant. There is not really any distinction between town probing for inquiry and scum trying to milk an opportunity other than the motivation (as in, an objective townsperson will find it difficult to judge in many circumstances).
25: Thinks Cicero is tying himself to CKD, since Cicero follows every poor post by CKD with a comment making it seem worse. I can't see the logic to this point.
26: Nothing
27: Questions for Cicero.
28: China analogy on the debate about subjective/objective with Cicero. I don't get any meaningful indicators from this debate either way.
29: Question for Adel
30: Nothing
31: Thinks the Cicero request was sincere. Agreed.
32: Nothing
33: Nothing
34: I missed this post, that was addressed to me on the point of gut in scumhunting. I don't rely solely on logic flaws in finding scum. Tone, etc. and other "style tells" (as opposed to "substance tells") are also important. The thing is, though, I don't see what my gut tells me as ever constituting a basis for in-game consequences in and of itself. I may follow my gut to more closely scrutinise a post or player, but that's it. I also don't accept that there are some things that can't be expressed well. Sure, I've found that explanation can sometimes be difficult, but I'm yet to encounter something that I can't express at all.
35: Thinks the Oman issue is overblown.
36: Says he is not lurking, but is just busy (and is not lurking by any but the most extreme standards)
37: Doesn't like the lurker-hunting.
38: Votes Shanba. The lurking is terrible and he says it conflicts with his usual impresion of Shanba. Says he would prefer shaft.ed FTR. Hmm, on one hand, he just attacked Adel and Cicero for lurker-lynching, but supports a lurker-lynch himself. Then again, deadlines necessitate compromises, so it's understandable.
39: Bolds vote
40: Nothing
41: Nothing
42: Nothing
43: Is not voting for CKD unless necessary.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Not much scummy here. Most of the problems I have are simply disagreement, not actual problems in terms of his alignment. Simenon gets a

27%

The Fonz

0: Random vote Jitsu
1: Swaps to Adel
2: Nothing
3: Notes that voting Oman for BWing is stupid. Accepts that the Simenon behaviour is a slight town-tell. Ugh, reasoning is the same as Cicero's, that I've criticised already.
4: Votes shaft.ed for suggesting Oman is trying to move a baseless wagon. I don't see how this is actually scummy...
5: Nothing
6: Nothing
7: Nothing
8: Nothing
9: Nothing
10: Asks for a shaft.ed wagon
11: Nothing
12: Finds shaft.ed's querying Adel's playstyle to be scummy
13: Makes a good analysis of what shaft.ed is doing re adel: insinuating scumminess without attacking anything tangible. Accuses shaft.ed of lurking in plain sight, and echoing the lurker attacks.
14: Doesn't think Adel's play is odd.
15: Nothing
16: Nothing
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Needs to post more. I get no indications either way from Fonz.

27%

Okay, so to place the rankings in a handy listing:
Jitsu - 41%
CKD - 38%
Adel - 35%
Shaft.ed, BT - 30%
Cicero, Oman, Shanba - 28%
Erg0, Fonz, Simenon - 27%

Now, I am cognisant of the fact that a Jitsu lynch is exceptionally unlikely. I seem to be on my own here. Given the deadline, I cast my vote for

Vote: CKD

[Oman]

I'm going to have to reread your PBPA cause I don't see CKD or Jitsu at all?

[curiouskarmadog]

sigh, I was really hoping to be in this game longer...have a feeling that I will be the lynch today. I guess there is something to lurking day 1 after all (noting Ergo and Fonz's standings in vollkan's break down) Vollkan, I am surprised you think I am scummier than Adel, and put lurkers so low on your list, but oh well.

Please hold Adel to the fire tomorrow for her bullshit today. Dont let her squirm out of the crap she sold today. Ask yourself why if she thought I was scum, did she want to use dice tags to lynch lurkers as deadline loomed, but only changed her vote back once BT called her out for it...the information from my lynch needs to be used, dont let me fucking die in vain.

I also really want to have that conversation about my unvote = the biggest scummy move day 1. Once you find out my role and my alginment, will that adjust you thoughts on the topic for future games? Cant wait to see if this was really scum fueled or not. If it isnt. Adel, you should be ashamed of your play today.

[cicero]

Unvote. Vote Adel

I'd rather vote the person pushing this dumb CKD wagon than CKD.

[BillyTwilight]

...says the man who has been lurking a good portion of the game. SO if you are scum and your partner was lurking, wouldnt you be pushing the same thing? This is why many lurkerscum win...I hope you dont plan on having this theory all game. For if you are not scum, you just game them a game plan to avoid your vote. Just for the record, BT, who do you feel should be put in a lurker category today?

This being said, I think that people should vote for who they think is scum. Not a lurker, unless you think that their lurking in this game is scummy or the few posts they have posted are scummy...

...BT, Have not been impressed (until the past couple of pages) and I am not sure what he is doing in this game. We are 20 pages into this game, and he has only posted 10 posts. (make that 12 as I am putting this together), though he has a reason. Also against lynching a lurker(I think this REALLY needs to be noted for later). I would be interested to see if this is a common argument he makes as town in other games…if I have time I might do a meta. Most of his posts which are comments and votes on the hot wagon of the hour. This isn’t completely accurate though as of late, he is still pushing my wagon, and that has died off, but just got support again from Adel...

Feel free to look at all of my games. I have never pushed for a lurker lynch, although the only time I specifically remember getting into a debate about lurker lynching was in Mafia 64 and I was scum.

The whole argument comes down to are scum more likely to lurk than town, and I don't think the answer there is yes. I've been lurky town; I've been lurky scum. I've seen lurky town lynched. I've seen lurky scum lynched. Never in any case have I seen any verifiable way of getting good info on a lurker to have confidence in the lynch, regardless of how they've flipped. Therefore those lynches are bad. The mod should replace lurkers; the players simply don't have the information needed to legitimately know that they have a good lynch going.

My one exception to the above is when a player lurks but picks up prods and constantly asks to stay in the game. When it becomes obvious that a players strategy is to lurk, and not RL circumstances that make it difficult for the player to play, then they should be lynched. I am COMPLETELY opposed to lurking-as-strategy; when a player is posting in other games and ignoring the game you are in with them, yet answers all prods and tries to do just enough to stay in the game, then by all means lynch them. Strategical lurking must be stopped at all cost. But for the most part, it's the mod's job (IMO) to make sure the players in his/her game are active.

[BillyTwilight]

Unvote. Vote Adel

I'd rather vote the person pushing this dumb CKD wagon than CKD.

I think at this point you should be voting for me then, cicero.

[cicero]

]But for the most part, it's the mod's job (IMO) to make sure the players in his/her game are active.

I've seen the exact opposite argued, usually by people who mod a lot. It's far from settled. Many mods believe that that is too much of an intrustion in the game and that it is up to the town to force interactions. If a person is willing to lurk then the town needs to be willing to force them to contribute, and if the sense is that the town won't punish the lurking, the lurking will continue.

Why have you been lurky scum and lurky town, BT? Don't like playing mafia?

[shaft.ed]

4: Okay. So, in 1 shaft.ed doesn't wagon because he has not been convinced. Here, he joins the Oman wagon without persuasion (actually, in response to a jokey post by me). It's odd that he is reluctant in the case of Cicero, but very willing in the case of Oman. I'd like shaft.ed to explain this himself, rather than give my own thoughts about various motivations.

This all ocurred on page 1. I am completely posting for my own enjoyment at this time of the game.

23: "So it doesn't bother you when a player's style changes 180 degrees from their norm?" The question itself is phrased in a manner that clearly presumes that being bothered is somehow the natural response. Again, shaft.ed attacks Adel for something that I really don't think can be construed as alignment-related.

I would argue that for Adel it is alignment related. My meta of her is based firmly on the fact that she is more conservative as scum than town. But as I stated repeatedly it is usually a more subtle difference. This was blazing, so I didn't know what to make of it. And reading back over my posts at that time, I do see that I was tunneled on Adel.

60: Doesn't think I am engaged and am Jitsu-centric. That's the cost of me not PBPAing.

I don't that lack of PBPA's is really the problem. It just feels like you aren't going after people as strongly as normal. But this could be due to the very conservative and lurky game we have going ATM.

Shaft.ed, why don't you think that CKD wanting to avoid being on a Shanbatown wagon is valid/likely?

I think there is less "limelight" the earlier you are on a wagon. He originated it, thus I don't think even if the wagon progressed to the point of Shanba geting mis-lynched (which is an unlikely extreme) people are going to be looking at CKD. They're going to be looking further down the wagon at the quick-voters and the L-1 or hammer. Also at anyone that had an invalid reason for being on the wagon. I just don't think someone originating a wagon with a valid reason should worry about pressure.

[cicero]

Unvote. Vote Adel

I'd rather vote the person pushing this dumb CKD wagon than CKD.

I think at this point you should be voting for me then, cicero.

I'm pushing for the originator. But if you'd like a vote for a little while to mark my displeasure for posterity you can certainly have one.

Unvote. Vote BillyTwilight.

unvote Billy Twilight. Vote Adel.

Happier? You can put it in your chart and Jitsu can make a 500 word post on how Cicero's vote for you and immediate unvote was "weird".

Seriously, I think town's would do better generally pushing the people who disingenuously push tiny things like they are big things on day one. Scum need to get town lynched. Adel has been good with most lynches today and has generally been bloodthirsty and several kinds of scummy. She's looking for anything to hang a day one lynch on, any association, unless it involves Jitsu I guess. I'm not sure who else she'd protect, but that seems scummier to me than anything CKD apparently did.

If people want "information" from this lynch, Adel's a good place to get it.

That having been said, CKD, if you are going to spend the last two days using a pity party defense coupled with a soft claim, you may as well claim.

[shaft.ed]

The Fonz
0: Random vote Jitsu
1: Swaps to Adel

2: Nothing

3: Notes that voting Oman for BWing is stupid. Accepts that the Simenon behaviour is a slight town-tell. Ugh, reasoning is the same as Cicero's, that I've criticised already.
4: Votes shaft.ed for suggesting Oman is trying to move a baseless wagon. I don't see how this is actually scummy...

5: Nothing
6: Nothing
7: Nothing
8: Nothing
9: Nothing

10: Asks for a shaft.ed wagon

11: Nothing

12: Finds shaft.ed's querying Adel's playstyle to be scummy
13: Makes a good analysis of what shaft.ed is doing re adel: insinuating scumminess without attacking anything tangible.

Accuses shaft.ed of lurking in plain sight

, and echoing the lurker attacks.
14: Doesn't think Adel's play is odd.

15: Nothing
16: Nothing

~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Needs to post more. I get no indications either way from Fonz. 27%

Bolding is mine. I'm curious why hypocrisy doesn't score more than 27.

[The Fonz]

@Fonz - you picked Adel over CKD. What do you think of the argument that BillyTwilight makes (and Adel does too) that Adel is scumhunting harder than CKD and therefore CKD is more likely scum and Adel more likely town?

Baseless assertion. 'Seems like they are scumhunting' doesn't really seem to me to mean any more than 'seems town.' It's not any kind of evidence. If he cared to explain why Adel's 'scumhunting' seems more genuine than CKD's, then it might be more likely to move me.

My suspicion of Adel centres more on the fact that it strikes me that she fairly obviously changed the way she was playing after being attacked for being 'conservative' to a manner that appears closer to the stereotype-Adel.

Meanwhile, The Fonz, Oman, BT, and Erg0 are slipping through without posting content. Among other thins, I am really interested in if they are more willing to vote for me or ckd, vollkan or Jitsu.
?

I'd really like to know how I'm 'not providing content.' I think it's fairly obvious where I stand, and why.

The Oman issue is overblown.

QFT. I've seen nothing in Oman that appears more scummy than average Oman.

Who me?

The default lynch? That'd be pretty lame, as I don't think I've really done anything scummy and don't understand why I still have votes on me.

People who scumhunt aggressively don't tend to be default lynches, fyi.

mod: please prod The Fonz and Erg0, and Shanba if he needs it by the time you check this.

Quoted to point out how much i hate having prod requests made of me whilst V/LA.

For day 1 I'm usually happy if I feel that a person is more than 40% likely to be scum.

I'd agree with that. If town could lynch with a 40% probability every time, it'd likely win the vast majority, and 40% is low enough level that enough people can actually be found who're that sure.

Unvote. Vote Fonz

This puzzles me. What could possibly have changed between your post on friday morning, and this vote on friday night? If you felt it was worth voting me before I answered your question, you could have done it in the morning post; if you wanted to wait for me to answer, then given that I had no access until monday (and, in fact, into tuesday, since the net was down when i got home, though obviously you weren't to know this) then voting me friday night doesn't make sense either.

Also, trying to start a new wagon, on a V/LA player, without giving any kind of explanation that might cause people to join you, with deadline less than a week away, seems to be a perfect example of 'throwing your vote away.'

New thoughts:

I get a bad feeling off Vollkan. His massive PBPs of players include far too much information that is semi-relevant at best, and I get the feeling of trying to blind people with linguistic dreadnaughts- that is, his posts contain so much data that it is hard to pick out what is important, and therefore his contributions end up clouding the issue, rather than clarifying it (And, as some of you will recall, I tend to think of LOATP as antitown in general).

Shaft.ed remains my PE no1. I will re-iterate why shortly.

The following, to me, are acceptable compromise lynches:


Adel, BT, cicero, vollkan.

I won't be convinced to swing to another. It does appear to be the case that between you, you've managed to run up a combination of my least suspected players as the 'viable' wagons- frankly, this is tough shit, since I believe my position on wagons that i see as woefully suboptimal is clear.

[shaft.ed]

That having been said, CKD, if you are going to spend the last two days using a pity party defense coupled with a soft claim, you may as well claim.

Agreed, if you're going to claim what I think you're going to claim please do it faster so that we can find an alternate lynch candidate.

[shaft.ed]

Hey the Fonz made it back. Looking forward to your case against me.

[curiouskarmadog]

That having been said, CKD, if you are going to spend the last two days using a pity party defense coupled with a soft claim, you may as well claim.

Agreed, if you're going to claim what I think you're going to claim please do it faster so that we can find an alternate lynch candidate.

if I dont claim, or if I do, the affect most likely will be the same...I wont see Day 2.

it is most protown for me to claim, vanilla townie.

[Guardian]

I regrettably still have no consistent internet access.

There are problems with the internet access now that vacation has ended.

Sorry!

Deadline remains, and comes in a little over a day from now.

[cicero]

@Fonz - I forgot to check the V/LA thread. I'll need to wear that one. In terms of the larger issue though, you have 18 posts in this thread. I have 65. I believe your post totals are lower as scum. At the same time I believe you are in 9 games and I am in 1 so that needs to temper things, but I want your pattern noted for future reference. That's a large part of what I do on day one.

Now I shall go and check the V/LA and the rest of the site to see if Erg0 has been hit by a truck. If a lurker is lynched I want it to be Erg0.

[cicero]

Oh well... Erg0 hasn't been on the site since June 24th. So forget all about that idea.

[cicero]

And Shanba hasn't been back to mafiascum since June 27th. His last post on site is his last in this Minvitational. So I don't want to lynch him either.

Woo Woo. Looks like I no longer want to lynch a lurker. At least no one currently lurking.