Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[shaft.ed]

Really Adel, dice tags?

[Simenon]

And if people do rely too heavily on Vollkan's PBPA posts to catch up on the game and not read closely, that's being lazy and letting others do your work for you. If the scum are going to be lazy, let them be lazy. It should make them easier to catch, right? If the town are going to be lazy, that's just as bad. A town that wants to win shouldn't let people get away with continually polly-parroting someone else's good analysis and not offering any commentary or scumhunting of their own, anyway. IMO, if townie does this, s/he deserves it if someone votes him/her for it. If a scum does it, same deal.

I don't understand what you're arguing here. How can this be used to catch scum more easily if the town can just as easily be lazy (for what it's worth, I've seen more lazy towns than lazy scum.)?

Cicero in 478 bothers me, because there are few people he

doesn't

mention.

I say we use the dice tags to pick one of the four, and we lynch that person.

No information that way. We might as well start a wagon in the old style form and take your course of action late on Tuesday.


Oman[3] (Erg0, Shanba, shaft.ed)
Shanba[3] (Jitsu, Oman, Adel)
shaft.ed[2] (The Fonz, Simenon)
curiouskarmadog[1] ( BillyTwilight)
Adel[1] (curiouskarmadog)
The Fonz[1] (cicero)

I've stated before that the Oman wagon seems overblown to me. I am really reading Oman as a genuine attempt take things easy. I also don't think he has the balls to suggest this style of play as scum.
Therefore:

Unvote
Vote Shanba[/i]

Terrible lurker. Unlike the Shanba I know. Needs pressure anyway eventually.

For the record, I'd prefer shaft.ed, but I just don't think we have the chance today.

[Simenon]

Unvote
Vote Shanba

[Simenon]

Do you really think shaft.ed stands a chance of being lynched today? Why don't you try doing something more productive with your vote?

I was writing the above post when you made this comment.

[Adel]

Really Adel, dice tags?

really. Typical day 1 lynches are worse the random, and comprimise deadline lynches are worse than typical lynches. If we are going to have a lynch that is nearly useless in terms of informational utility, I say we at least make the best gamble that we can.

Of course, now that Shanba has four votes, I'm pretty happy. I expect him to get three more before deadline.

[Simenon]

really. Typical day 1 lynches are worse the random, and comprimise deadline lynches are worse than typical lynches.

Typical day 1 lynches also help you make better choices for other lynches.

[Adel]

EBWOP: Typical day 1 lynches are less likely to be accurate than a random lynch would be. Compromise deadline lynches are even less likely to be accurate than a typical lynch would be. If we are going to have a lynch with very low informational utility, I think that we should at least make the lynch a gamble we stand a chance to win.

Of course, now that Shanba has four votes, I'm pretty happy. I expect him to get three more before deadline.

[Adel]

really. Typical day 1 lynches are worse the random, and comprimise deadline lynches are worse than typical lynches.

Typical day 1 lynches also help you make better choices for other lynches.

Typical lynches have informational utility, and deadline lynches often do not.

[Simenon]

really. Typical day 1 lynches are worse the random, and comprimise deadline lynches are worse than typical lynches.

Typical day 1 lynches also help you make better choices for other lynches.

and deadline lynches often do not.

Most votes before vote 5 on a deadline wagon at least have a justification, even if it is "this is the best choice before the deadline." With a dice, no votes yield information.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: Typical day 1 lynches are less likely to be accurate than a random lynch would be. Compromise deadline lynches are even less likely to be accurate than a typical lynch would be. If we are going to have a lynch with very low informational utility, I think that we should at least make the lynch a gamble we stand a chance to win.

And dice tags fix this problem how? As Simenon already covered, there's a lot more to a Day1 lynch than accuracy. The informational value is the majority of its worth and throwing dice removes that entirely.

[Adel]

I was expecting no wagon to have more than a couple of "justified" votes. Until you voted Oman was the vote leader with literally no "justified votes".

[Adel]

Dude I put it in bold. You aren't pointing out anything new. A simple "I disagree with your second assumption" would do.

Assumption 2:

Any compromise lynch we reach, because of Guardian's deadline lynch rules and the pace of the game thus far, will be a lynch of very low informational value.

I dea was simply that if we aren't going to have an informational lynch, we may as well have a lynch that stands a respectible chance of netting scum.

[shaft.ed]

Dude I put it in bold. You aren't pointing out anything new. A simple "I disagree with your second assumption" would do.

Assumption 2:

Any compromise lynch we reach, because of Guardian's deadline lynch rules and the pace of the game thus far, will be a lynch of very low informational value.

I dea was simply that if we aren't going to have an informational lynch, we may as well have a lynch that stands a respectible chance of netting scum.

OK I get it, sorry for not noticing. I still think any lynch has informational value more than "sure let's let lad luck decide."

[Adel]

So you still support an Oman lynch-at-deadline over everyone else?

Assuming Shanba will not be replaced today (which I feel is a very safe assumption) why should he not be lynched today?

[shaft.ed]

So you still support an Oman lynch-at-deadline over everyone else?

Assuming Shanba will not be replaced today (which I feel is a very safe assumption) why should he not be lynched today?

I seriously am not liking Oman's back and forth with me. But I did like Sim's point about scOman not having the balls for this gambit.

I've got to catch a bus now. But I'd prefer the Fonz as a luker lynch at this point.

[Adel]

I've got to catch a bus now.

lol

but why Fonz over Shanba?

[vollkan]

Oman

0: Random vote
1: Another one
2: Nothing
3: Thinks Cicero was too quick to identify the town-tell. Asks Cicero to explain why, and threatens vote if explanation is bad.
4: "ADEL!"
5: Rightly criticises Cicero's argument on the town-tell. Doesn't like CIcero's threat, and dislikes Cicero calling himself a townie. Votes accordingly and, in my view, legitimately.
6: Asks that one line be omitted
7: Thinks Sim's behaviour is a nulltell
8: Nothing
9: Retorts to shaft.ed identifying him moving the wagon that he was clear about it, and Adel did likewise.
10: Nothing
11: Nothing
12: Nothing
13: Raises his meta of wagonning as a response to Cicero accusing him of having an itchy finger.
14: Says he is pointing out Cicero's faulty logic, in response to Cicero asking whether Oman was relying on his personal meta. In other words, Oman doesn't address what was actually asked.
15: Admits the meta bluntly here, not evasive, but reliance on a meta is fraught with some difficulty
16: Nothing
17: Nothing
18: Nothing
19: Nothing
20: Nothing
21: Question for me on my post querying Erg0's post saying someone needs to mess up.
22: Nothing
23: Nothing
24: Thinks Shanba is lurking more than BT
25: Nothing
26: Nothing
27: Nothing
28: Votes Shanba. Says he hopes to move it above his, with a smiley face at the end
29: Promises content
30: Wants to pick from the shaft.ed and vollkan wagons. He says shaft.ed can be "easily explained away" (does this mean the wagon is good or bad?) and (correctly) that the one on me is just gut-based
31: Still reading
32: Doesn't think ScumDel would pull the stuff re obscenity. I disagree. Adel is smart enough to know that her meta would probably allow her to get away with what she says.
33: Nothing
34: Nothing
35: Intends to play the passive judge, and thinks doing so will be an improvement. It isn't, by the way, but more on that at the end.
36: Says other people are asking questions for him and he doesn't need to actively participate in that way. Again, wrong.
37: Says my playstyle is off, that CKD seems protown, and shaft.ed is reacting well. Neither of these is backed up by any explanation.
38: Says I am playing with more certainty than in SG-1 (where I was mafia). The only specific evidence he provides for calling CKD town is his "reactions" (vague).
39: Asks Adel what she thinks of a CKD/Vollkan scumteam
40: Doesn't think he is the default lynch, since he "has not really done anything scummy". Omit the word "scummy", and this is actually a pretty good summation of your play.
41: Doesn't think the Vollkan Effect will occur. (On this, it's worth remembering that this game is very much distinguished from House Mafia, where I was confirmed innocent very early on. I made the error of letting that status give me a sort of leadership role, which was fatal for the town. As I've said before, I think, there is an optimum and non-zero level of suspicion at which a player should operate. As in, it is not actually healthy for a player to be treated as infallibly genuine. Even though people were not always simply following me, nobody was willing to take a blowtorch to the reasoning of a confirmed townie.)
42: Nothing
43: Nothing
44: Nothing
45: Nothing
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There is little meaningful content to go on here. Most of Oman's posts are relevant but not meaningful. That's not inconsistent with Oman's meta, but it is not helpful for analysing him. He is vague at a number of points, but there is not anything that is really very scummy. I give Oman a

28%

[Oman]

Wow 28% that was my HSC math score (untrue).

I disagree with Adel that deadline lynches are inheriently worse than day lynches.

I'm going to the gym, I'll be thinking about this game, and when I come back I will do my opinions of each player and thus who I think is best to eliminate at this stage of the game.

[Adel]

Oman made five additional posts on mafiascum.net since this last post of his. The most recent one was posted 27 minutes after he said he was going to the gym.

[BillyTwilight]

Simply put, cicero, the only thing that lynching Erg0 would accomplish is removing a lurker, barring Erg0 being scum, which is not better than random chances at this point.

This game be an idea.

It relies upon three basic assumptions which I feel are valid:

Assumption 1:

At this point, and in this game, lurking players are slightly more likely than average to be scum.

Assumption 2:

Any compromise lynch we reach, because of Guardian's deadline lynch rules and the pace of the game thus far, will be a lynch of very low informational value.

Assumption 3:

A random lynch is better than a no-lynch

Who are the lurker? Oman, Erg0, The Fonz, and Shanba. BT has redeemed himself in recent pages (and has a good excuse).

I say we use the dice tags to pick one of the four, and we lynch that person.

If three other people agree I'll post the list and post the dice tags.

I'd like you to justify Assumption 1. Honestly. Like, actually justify it, don't feed me any "I just feel this way for this game" crap. I'd love for you to explain how you can differentiate town lurkers from scum lurkers.

I completely disagree with Assumption 2. A CKD lynch should give YOU of all people more information than you could hope for today. He's listed in about half of your possible scum-pairings right? There has been a preponderance of players commenting on, attacking, and defending CKD. Knowing his alignment would go a long way to unraveling day 1 info. Plus, you CLAIM TO THINK HE IS SCUM.

As for assumption 3, I'm not so sure. No lynching at this point would be kinda like having a night head start in the game, just with a full day's worth of information to go on already. Anyway, this doesn't really matter at this point because I'm not arguing for a no lynch.

I'm becoming increasingly nervous about Adel's lack of belief in her own attack against CKD. She certainly seemed pretty adamant about it several pages ago and now she seems to want to ignore him altogether.

[Adel]

Simply put, cicero, the only thing that lynching Erg0 would accomplish is removing a lurker, barring Erg0 being scum, which is not better than random chances at this point.

This game be an idea.

It relies upon three basic assumptions which I feel are valid:

Assumption 1:

At this point, and in this game, lurking players are slightly more likely than average to be scum.

Assumption 2:

Any compromise lynch we reach, because of Guardian's deadline lynch rules and the pace of the game thus far, will be a lynch of very low informational value.

Assumption 3:

A random lynch is better than a no-lynch

Who are the lurker? Oman, Erg0, The Fonz, and Shanba. BT has redeemed himself in recent pages (and has a good excuse).

I say we use the dice tags to pick one of the four, and we lynch that person.

If three other people agree I'll post the list and post the dice tags.

I'd like you to justify Assumption 1. Honestly. Like, actually justify it, don't feed me any "I just feel this way for this game" crap. I'd love for you to explain how you can differentiate town lurkers from scum lurkers.

I can't. Hopefully lady luck can. Lurking, IMHO, is a near-breaking tactic for scum under the current meta. Active players tend to lynch other active players. Lurking, especially during the first two days of a 12 player game, is the safest way to avoid getting lynched. The major reason not to lurk is if you are interested in productive and accurate lynches. Townie players have that motivation, and scum players do not.

I completely disagree with Assumption 2. A CKD lynch should give YOU of all people more information than you could hope for today. He's listed in about half of your possible scum-pairings right? There has been a preponderance of players commenting on, attacking, and defending CKD. Knowing his alignment would go a long way to unraveling day 1 info. Plus, you CLAIM TO THINK HE IS SCUM.

Do you think we can pull off a ckd lynch? You, me, simenon and vollkan would make four. Where would the other three come from?

As for assumption 3, I'm not so sure. No lynching at this point would be kinda like having a night head start in the game, just with a full day's worth of information to go on already. Anyway, this doesn't really matter at this point because I'm not arguing for a no lynch.

I'm becoming increasingly nervous about Adel's lack of belief in her own attack against CKD. She certainly seemed pretty adamant about it several pages ago and now she seems to want to ignore him altogether.

Are you offering to help me push for a ckd lynch? Do you really think we could pull it off before deadline?

With the deadline looming I was more interested in what was best

possible

choice then what I felt was the absolute best choice.

unvote, vote:ckd

[Oman]

Oman made five additional posts on mafiascum.net since this last post of his. The most recent one was posted 27 minutes after he said he was going to the gym.

Yeah I post down the list, this was at the top of my watched topics, so when I opened it in a new tab it was first.

I'm not going to do this game at the exclusion of all others, Adel.

[Adel]

Join the ckd wagon. I'll punch you in the stomach and tell you that you are ugly and unwanted. It will be just like old times.

[Adel]

Oman[3] (Erg0, Shanba, shaft.ed)
Shanba[3] (Jitsu, Oman, Simenon)
curiouskarmadog[2] ( BillyTwilight, Adel)
shaft.ed[1] (The Fonz)
Adel[1] (curiouskarmadog)
The Fonz[1] (cicero)

Not voting: vollkan

with 12 alive, 7 will lynch.
with 11 voting, 6 will lynch at deadline

[Oman]

I'm writing up my Analysis now and rereading. It will take a while, but srsly, I'll join CKD if I think CKD is scum by the end.