Mini 555 --- LDF Mafia -- Game Over!

[Alabaska J]

EBWOP: Had this game confused. We

might

be in LYLO.

[Lloyd]

Alabaska, was that a scum tell?

[Alabaska J]

Alabaska, was that a scum tell?

I'm claimed doc remember? I'm allowed to slip up.

Also, any flavor experts left? I wanna know the chances we have two scumgroups or not.

We need a lynch or at least a claim to get things rolling here.

[Sarcastro]

Day End Vote Count:

3 – eljcko – (SlySly, Alabaska J, Andycyca)
1 – Alabaska J – (JDodge)
1 – Andycyca – (Lloyd)

Eljcko is lynched.

[Sarcastro]

Dead Men Tell Tales

After another stressful few hours, you finally choose another victim. He protests, of course, but his protests are weak. He seems tired. Like he's not himself. You kill him anyway. You're bloodthirsty like that.

After he dies, you have no time to figure out who he is. Someone else in the room immediately starts swearing. Lightning shoots out of nowhere. You recognise the voice now! It's Psycho Mantis! But he's dead!

"God dammit, you

morons

! I'll kill you! I will kill you and I will piss on your charred corpses!" He fires more lightning at you.

"How are you still alive?" One of you asks as you run for cover. "We thought you were dead!"

"What? Oh, that was Frank, that guard nobody liked. He was wearing my spare outfit."

"Huh. I never knew he was into that sort of thing."

"Oh,

shut up

, all of you. This is why I wanted to kill you all in the first place." He fires more lightning.

"So why did you reveal yourself? Who did we just kill?"

"You killed Raven, you morons. I had him mind-controlled. After I had to fake my own death..." He was silenced by a hail of gunfire from all angles. He fell down.

There was silence for a few moments. "So I guess Solid Snake never infiltrated Foxhound after all. It was just Psycho Mantis trying to kill us."

"So we're safe?"

Mantis's body stirred. "Ha. That's what

you

think..."

"Well not any more, it isn't!"

"Oh. Well fuck." He promptly died.

eljcko (Vulcan Raven, Mafia) has been lynched.
hasdgfas (Psycho Mantis, Mafia) has been killed. For real, this time.

Please submit your night choices as soon as possible.

[Sarcastro]

Scene up later.

Alabaska J (Naomi Hunter, Innocent) has been beaten to death.

Four alive, three to lynch.

[Lloyd]

I'm 90% sure that JDodge is a partner of Eljcko based on what he wrote yesterday. His probing of Alabaska's powers seem scummy.

I'm 90% sure that SlySly is not scum based on night actions. SlySly, if you want...I can tell you what I know so you can confirm my knowledge.

Andycyca falls in the middle. Between JDodge and Andycyca, what happened yesterday leads me to:

Vote: JDodge

That's my final answer.

[JDodge]

I'm 90% sure that JDodge is a partner of Eljcko based on what he wrote yesterday. His probing of Alabaska's powers seem scummy.

I was attempting to see if he really

was

a doctor or if he was claiming that as a part of his flavour for the role of Naomi Hunter. Please answer this: Why would scum attempt to disprove someone who has claimed doctor?

I'll admit that is a minimal defense, but your case itself is fairly minimal. And I'll stand by what I said yesterday about eljcko. Now let's continue down this line - why makes you think there is scum? No vig has come forth, so I'm assuming the 2nd killing group is an SK - that would mean that you have 3 scum, 1 sk, 6 town. Then you add in that there are 4 people left - the only logical idea for town is to no lynch as lynching results in a loss.

I would like any vig to claim immediately to prevent this, as I believe no lynch is the correct move today if there is no vig. I will assert that I am not a vig.

I'm 90% sure that SlySly is not scum based on night actions. SlySly, if you want...I can tell you what I know so you can confirm my knowledge.

If you can confirm each other,

what the fuck are you waiting for.

[/quote]

My final answer at the moment is to

vote: No Lynch

.

[Lloyd]

I disagree with JDodge's no lynch proposal. It seem to assume scums are in the same faction, which directly contradicts his assumption of an SK.

If we have 2 scums left, and if they are in different factions, then lynching is the right play today, as it means 50% chance of lynching scum.

In this game, what is odd is that last night's kill result was beaten to death, whereas previous nights were due to shots. I don't know what to make of it yet, but I do think lynching is the right play today.
---
mikeburnfire (Sniper Wolf, Innocent) shot N1.
Frank (Guard-dressed-up-as-Psycho-Mantis, Innocent) shot N1.

Korts (Decoy Octopus, Innocent) shot N2.
ooba (Scratch, Innocent) shot N2.

Alabaska J (Replacing Thanatos (Replacing ryan)) (Naomi Hunter, Innocent) beaten to death N3.
---

[Andycyca]

Mod:

I request replacement. I can't keep up with current work and mafia games. Sorry guys.

[SlySly]

Picking up my prod. I will post my thoughts very soon.

[JDodge]

I disagree with JDodge's no lynch proposal. It seem to assume scums are in the same faction, which directly contradicts his assumption of an SK.

If we have 2 scums left, and if they are in different factions, then lynching is the right play today, as it means 50% chance of lynching scum.

In this game, what is odd is that last night's kill result was beaten to death, whereas previous nights were due to shots. I don't know what to make of it yet, but I do think lynching is the right play today.
---
mikeburnfire (Sniper Wolf, Innocent) shot N1.
Frank (Guard-dressed-up-as-Psycho-Mantis, Innocent) shot N1.

Korts (Decoy Octopus, Innocent) shot N2.
ooba (Scratch, Innocent) shot N2.

Alabaska J (Replacing Thanatos (Replacing ryan)) (Naomi Hunter, Innocent) beaten to death N3.
---

No, it doesn't assume there is a single faction.

Let's do the math.

If there is a single faction, we lynch wrong, we lose.

If there are two factions, we lynch right, other faction kills townie, we lose. If there are two factions, we lynch wrong, we win if they kill each other and lose if they don't.

Let's assume there is but 1 scum left of a single faction. We have a 75% chance of victory from lynch, 25% chance of loss from lynch. We have a 0% chance of loss today from no lynch, and with kill that creates a situation tomorrow where we have a 66% chance of victory with lynch and 33% chance of loss.

Let's assume there are 2 left of different factions. We have a 0% chance of victory from correct lynch (lynch correct, scum kills town, scum win),

veryslight

chance of victory from an incorrect lynch (each scum kills other scum. With no lynch, our chances of victory

increase

for the same reason as the incorrect lynch scenario.

Therefore, the last thing we want to do today is lynch - if we do lynch, we don't necessarily want to lynch

correctly

.

[Lloyd]

JDodge, the percentages that you present only work in a vacuum. If all things are equal, then I would consider it. However, are things are not equal in this game: This is a Coney Island game, so you can't easily predict game mechanics. Furthermore, you seem more suspicious than the others.

My vote on you remains.

[JDodge]

JDodge, the percentages that you present only work in a vacuum. If all things are equal, then I would consider it. However, are things are not equal in this game: This is a Coney Island game, so you can't easily predict game mechanics. Furthermore, you seem more suspicious than the others.

My vote on you remains.

You're risking the entire game on there being hidden and thus unforseen and unknown mechanics suddenly swooping in and saving the town from certain doom.

That's fairly retarded

.

[Lloyd]

Your name calling doesn't change my vote.

Given this is a Coney Island game, why would you give up your day vote, and defer to night actions? Do you feel more empowered at night than during the day?

Your math assumes this is a vanilla-only with generic mechanics, which this game is not.

[JDodge]

Your name calling doesn't change my vote.

Given this is a Coney Island game, why would you give up your day vote, and defer to night actions? Do you feel more empowered at night than during the day?

Your math assumes this is a vanilla-only with generic mechanics, which this game is not.

My math assumes that our protective roles are dead and therefore we have no way to protect ourselves from a loss in my scenarios, thus making it essentially a vanilla-only game with generic mechanics. Do you have

any

reason to expect that there are odd game mechanics beyond no-reveal?

Given this is a game, why would you even take that risk?

[MeMe]

I'm assuming this game is dead, but I've PMed Sarcastro just to make sure.

[Sarcastro]

Whoo-hoo-hoo, look who knows so much. It just so happens that this game here is only

mostly

dead. There's a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive.

I have finally found a replacement for Andycyca. Given that there are only four people alive, I believe that this game can still be saved. Prods will be going out as soon as the replacement is official.

[Sarcastro]

All right. Skruffs replaces Andycyca, effective immediately. Prods will be going out to all three other players. I'm not going to set a deadline as long as I see that everyone is willing to commit to finishing this game.

[Skruffs]

If we have 2 scums left, and if they are in different factions, then lynching is the right play today, as it means 50% chance of lynching scum.

Incorrect. If there are two scum alive, lynching one leads to a win from the other.

Still waiting for my ROLE PM buyt I figure I can talk a bit in the meantime.

But Lloyd is using a double-bluff to try and convince us to not lynch because he's the only scum left. Endgame situations should never be based on percentage.

[Lloyd]

Backup roles are not odd mechanics
Letting the mod impose a deadline is boring
Either vote to lynch someone, or vote no lynch
I am already voting for JDodge

[Skruffs]

Stttteeeeeeeeeeeeeel waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayting

[Skruffs]

Okay, I got my roles.
I still haven't read much, has everyone fully claimed yet?

[Skruffs]

I would liek tow things to happen, but because doing it rhte way I want to do it may lead to players saying that I am fake claiming my role, I will allow you guys to determine the order it happened.
First: I will explain what my role was capable of. It was a one-shot, and it has been used.
Second, I want everyone to claim with their targets.

Yes, the two are connected.

[Skruffs]

*COUGH*
Ahem?
I do'nt want the game to die. If it means just voting to make a lynch than that is what I will do.

Speak up, y'all.