Open 70 - Two of Four (b9) (Game Over!) before 595

[dcorbe]

@farside22:

HOW ON D2 DOES ANALYZING A UNANIMOUS LYNCH ON D1 PROVIDE ANY USEFUL INFORMATION

All you have to do is answer that question. I don't understand why it's so difficult for you to answer that question.

No everyone was voting against max. It takes 7 to lynch

Nobody spoke out in Max's defense, and who is going to vote after hammer anyways? Why? To prove a point?

That's why I sit here and say that the lynch was unanimous.

[farside22]

I questioned Armix hammer.

[farside22]

By the way looking at who voted max is never a bad thing as sometimes voting town and driving a BW is what scum's live for.

[dcorbe]

By the way looking at who voted max is never a bad thing as sometimes voting town and driving a BW is what scum's live for.

There are many pro-town reasons to drive wagons too. In this case it's a null tell.

[dcorbe]

EBWOP: It's a null tell in this particular case due to the unanimity of the wagon.

[dcorbe]

I would like us to focus on something other than the max wagon mostly because we're going to tie ourselves up into WIOFMy knots trying to figure out anything from it.

[armlx]

Yawn, this sounds like a fight among townies.

More lynching Grimmy would be my solution.

[ShadowGirl]

I agree with dcorbe. I don't see what information we can possibly get out of Max's lynch - he hardly put up a defense and he was practically asking for it. How is speculating on possible scum partners for Max doing any good either - he didn't flip scum, no matter how much he seemed like it.

This discussion is getting us nowhere and only seems to be stirring things up for just the sake of it.

Vote: farside22

[farside22]

This discussion is getting us nowhere and only seems to be stirring things up for just the sake of it.

Have you even discussed anything yet? Are you lurking on purpose and just looking for BW to join.

dcorbe
shadowgirl
scum pair. Shadow following dcorbe vote should look damn shaddy to many.

Prod to Grimmy and Lama

I would like other peoples input on what just happened.

[ShadowGirl]

This discussion is getting us nowhere and only seems to be stirring things up for just the sake of it.

Have you even discussed anything yet? Are you lurking on purpose and just looking for BW to join.

dcorbe
shadowgirl
scum pair. Shadow following dcorbe vote should look damn shaddy to many.

Prod to Grimmy and Lama

I would like other peoples input on what just happened.

Lurking on purpose? How am I lurking? Also, why did you ask me to be prodded?

If I was scum I wouldn't be quite as stupid to follow him after in a vote.

[farside22]

I asked for grimmy and lama to be prodded.
I don't know anything about your play.

[ShadowGirl]

No, yesterday you prodded me.

Fair enough, I suppose.

[armlx]

Farside, I think you are putting too much emphasis on pairings on player connections without a dead scum.

ShadowGirl's vote on you does seem pretty opportunistic though.

[farside22]

I'm looked at voting history before. Usually there are scum that drive those type of wagons.
Case in point Mini 606 (You are what you eat)
You see I mention the lulu wagon in that game and all 3 scum were on that wagon. This is not a bad discussion in the fact that nothing was being discussed to begin with.

[armlx]

You see I mention the lulu wagon in that game and all 3 scum were on that wagon. This is not a bad discussion in the fact that nothing was being discussed to begin with.

Again, you have the same issue of a lynch that had several supporters beyond the lynch, so the odds of all the scum being in that group were still inflated.

[LlamaFluff]

I agree with dcorbe. I don't see what information we can possibly get out of Max's lynch - he hardly put up a defense and he was practically asking for it. How is speculating on possible scum partners for Max doing any good either - he didn't flip scum, no matter how much he seemed like it.

This discussion is getting us nowhere and only seems to be stirring things up for just the sake of it.

Vote: farside22

Im really pressed for time but I will comment on this later tonight when I have more then five minutes.

I think there is plenty of information to get out of the Max lynch. I did an analysis post on it and from what I figured out, Avinyl became my top suspect over SG.

The willingness of SG to ignore what happened there, especially as I didnt like the player she replaced in what he did during the Max lynch, a concern. I still see a much higher chance of SG scum the dcorbe, as ive seen him play this wierd reckless scummy play in ever game that I look at.

I would still say a lynch should be SG or avinly at this point though.

[LlamaFluff]

First of what will probally be at least a double post

Now in ShadowGirls first big analysis post, there are only two people mentioned, dcorbe, which I find interesting given how jtyder did a quick and unexplained “townie read” on him. Also there is mention of farside, for mostly being emotional, which again seems really unusual because emotional isn’t indicative of alignment. No vote was included on this first post.

To me, anything that is said in a post is a tell of someone's alignment. Also, I don't see how it's odd that me and jtyder think differently - we are different people.

You still are responsable for anything that jtyder did, just like I am responsable for anything alvinz did. The thing that was odd to me was that while jtyder seemed to dismiss him as a scum suspect too fast, you decided to make him one of your top picks. While dissention between replacees and replaced are common, the fact that it was to this much of an extream is noteable.

In the second analysis post, the scum from SG are dcorbe, Max (?!) and Armix. Dcorbe again is interesting to me for previous reasons, max is just stupid and I don’t know what to make of that, and then armix for a quick hammer, which is a much more sensical suspicion to me. No vote again from SG. Farside also has disappeard from this list, making me wonder why she was included on the first post.

Just because someone has slipped from my top three doesn't mean I've forgotten about them. Seeing as how alvinz has practically dissapeared from the thread and farside is active, it makes him seem as if he's hiding.

Well what is your current stance on farside then if you still are thinking about her? It seems something that would of been addressed in a second post of who is scummy given your thoughts in the first post that did mention her. Again the failure to vote here also is interesting, you have done two analysis posts and failed to vote in either.

Well, I attempted to get some scumtells, but when going through it, I got nothing. I plan on investigating someone else today.

Anyway, how's that coming along?

Well I am alvinz 2.0, a more reliable, more efficiant and with improved scumhunt(TM) abilities. My analysis of the thread says that you and avinyl are the best candidates for scum.

All jokes aside though, I would like to hear a case from you sometime soon, and thoughts on farside. As well as answers to anything I asked in this post.

[LlamaFluff]

For whats going on with the aftermath of the Max lynch, it should be used. In this game, the only definate information we have to go on is that Max flipped town, and Blonde was the NK. Anything else, no matter what we belive to be true, is speculation.

For that reason, the events surrounding the Max lynch are some of the only definitive information available to us, and is a great spot to actually provide some substance to a case. Avinyl is an example for me, during a reread, he was a more neutral player for me, when I did a close look at the Max lynch though, he is now vying with SG for my lynch vote.

What I dont understand is why some people want to discount what happened during the lynch. Even is Max was a scummy townie, and "asked for it", there still is information to be gathered. We can see who joined the wagon for less then ideal reasons, we can see who tried to avoid the wagon, and who was ultimately responsable for the wagon being driven.

The fact that dcorbe and SG both seem to want to ignore the history of this wagon is disturbing for me. There is information there, and going back and looking at it may lead you to a suspect that you previously had ignored, or strengthen a case against a top scum pick.

If you really dont think that looking at the past days lynch is a good idea, at least give me some

good

reasons that we should simply treat day two as day one, which essentially is what will happen.

---

Also, please tell me

since Grimmy iis MIA I'll go ahead and

Unvote

Vote: Farside22

is a joke

If grimmy came back today would you be voting him? What has farside done to pass him in suspicious behavior?

and its almost three in the morning... im going to bed

[dcorbe]

The fact that dcorbe and SG both seem to want to ignore the history of this wagon is disturbing for me. There is information there, and going back and looking at it may lead you to a suspect that you previously had ignored, or strengthen a case against a top scum pick.

Nobody has been able to answer this question so far, so let's try this again with you:

What can be learned of relationships and scum tells from a wagon that was unanimous?

I would much rather spend some time mining for NEW information to go on, because anything at all that could come out of analyzing the max wagon is merely circumstantial evidence and it's going to lead us to another mis-lynch.

What's the best way to get information? Wagon someone.

That's why I'm
A) Clinging to weak scum tells
B) Dismissing the max wagon
C) attacking anyone who is trying to draw conclusions form his mislynch, which is now farside, grimmy and you, floating up to the top of my scum list.

Also, please tell me

dcorbe wrote:
since Grimmy iis MIA I'll go ahead and Unvote
Vote: Farside22


is a joke

If grimmy came back today would you be voting him? What has farside done to pass him in suspicious behavior?

It's not a joke, and I think farside is now more suspicious than Grimmy only because she's questioning Armix's hammer. What armix did was not only appropriate but expected considering how many scum tells Max was dropping. At *WORST* what armix did is a null tell, and she's trying to run with it.

If grimmy were to wake up I would not be inclined to switch my vote back right now, unless he were wagoned for some reason or started dropping more scum tells.

[LlamaFluff]

What can be learned of relationships and scum tells from a wagon that was unanimous?

so my 269 is worthless?

my points brought up there should never be used to find scum?

Sure Max was lynched, by seven players. Now that we know he is town, we look through the reasons for voting, and how people acted during the wagon. Who showed aprehension, who voted for weak reaons, and who avoided the wagons as much as possible

[dcorbe]

What can be learned of relationships and scum tells from a wagon that was unanimous?

so my 269 is worthless?

my points brought up there should never be used to find scum?

Sure Max was lynched, by seven players. Now that we know he is town, we look through the reasons for voting, and how people acted during the wagon. Who showed aprehension, who voted for weak reaons, and who avoided the wagons as much as possible

At best it's going to lead us to a WIOFMy mis lynch. I'm concerned about the consequences of us mis-lynching a power role because we got some bad intelligence from the Max lynch.

7 people lynched, but there was not one person who spoke out against the lynch. He was oozing scum tells.

There's other ways for us to get some more solid base to go on for a D2 lynch.

[armlx]

At best it's going to lead us to a WIOFMy mis lynch. I'm concerned about the consequences of us mis-lynching a power role because we got some bad intelligence from the Max lynch.

This is an example of having the fear of being wrong, though I agree with you analyzing the Max lynch right now is pretty useless.

[LlamaFluff]

There's other ways for us to get some more solid base to go on for a D2 lynch.

what is it then? I still think taking into account the definative information is the best path we can take here. It should not be the sole reason to lynch, but I would rather try and take information from Max's lynch and use that then treat this as D1, which by ignoring what happened at the D1 lynch is what we are basically doing.

@armix - Same as to dcorbe, do you think my 269 is useless?

[armlx]

I wouldn't say its useless, but more that right now is not the optimal time to try and draw info from the max wagon. I mean, its pretty assured both scum were on it, but so was almost all the town.

[farside22]

I wouldn't say its useless, but more that right now is not the optimal time to try and draw info from the max wagon. I mean, its pretty assured both scum were on it, but so was almost all the town.

There is no assurance that both scum were on the wagon as not everyone was voting him

(5) Max (Mr. Blonde, jtdyer, farside22, dcorbe, armlx)
(1) farside22 (Max)
(1) Mr. Blonde (Avinyl)
(0) alvinz95
(0) jtdyer
(0) dcorbe
(0) Avinyl
(0) Grimmy
(0) armlx

(2) Not Voting (Grimmy, alvinz95)

FOS: Armix

Me thinks someone slipped