Mini 579 - The Plagues of Egypt Mafia - Over

[lord_hur]

I found something in my slight reread that I think is very interesting. A little while ago, strife pulled out this crazy theory:

As a side-theory that people may attack me for since it's heavy on speculation, is that scum may get to find out the identity of who they kill. This would explain the perfect job title as well as his eagerness to claim, if N0 kill (forget his name) was the doc.

An interesting theory to be sure, no evidence either way, but it does make you wonder. However, he seems to forget his own theory here:

You're right SL that scum could have made up the title, but a lack of counter-claim makes me think he's telling the truth. Of course given the 'no-reveal' rules, counter-claiming is risky in and of itself...

So I guess my logic is:
There's a very good chance of there being a doctor in this game (as in most minis).
If there's a doctor, there's a very good chance their title is 'Physician.'
Given that Musher said he was a doctor with the title Physician, I think he's either telling the truth, or our real doc (if we have one) has decided that since there is a no-reveal rule, counter-claiming wouldn't be smart.

First off, if strife's theory is correct, it would explain why Musher's claim is so "perfect" even if he is scum. Someone mentioned that they couldn't see musher coming up with that flavor. Well, maybe he didn't have to.
Next, I find it strange that strife would come up with that theory out of the blue like that.

Well, if you really believe this, you could ask Musher333 for more flavor... Maybe* scum received more info than town on their kill, but I can't imagine it being more than raw name and role.

*Can someone with no-reveal game experience tell me if scum usually get more info than town on their kill ?

[Singing Librarian]

Well, I still think it could be interesting, but since everyone but me and springlullaby is against it and you can't all be scum, I'll drop the subject :/

I'm not against it as such, I just don't think it will help. As far as I can tell, there's absolutely no pattern to the name origins, and scum wouldn't be silly enough to say 'my name is of Hebrew origin'.

[strife220]

I found something in my slight reread that I think is very interesting. A little while ago, strife pulled out this crazy theory:

As a side-theory that people may attack me for since it's heavy on speculation, is that scum may get to find out the identity of who they kill. This would explain the perfect job title as well as his eagerness to claim, if N0 kill (forget his name) was the doc.

An interesting theory to be sure, no evidence either way, but it does make you wonder. However, he seems to forget his own theory here:

You're right SL that scum could have made up the title, but a lack of counter-claim makes me think he's telling the truth. Of course given the 'no-reveal' rules, counter-claiming is risky in and of itself...

So I guess my logic is:
There's a very good chance of there being a doctor in this game (as in most minis).
If there's a doctor, there's a very good chance their title is 'Physician.'
Given that Musher said he was a doctor with the title Physician, I think he's either telling the truth, or our real doc (if we have one) has decided that since there is a no-reveal rule, counter-claiming wouldn't be smart.

First off, if strife's theory is correct, it would explain why Musher's claim is so "perfect" even if he is scum. Someone mentioned that they couldn't see musher coming up with that flavor. Well, maybe he didn't have to.
Next, I find it strange that strife would come up with that theory out of the blue like that.
I had something else I was thinking of, but I forgot it. I'll post it when I remember it.

I didn't forget my own theory. It's just too unlikely to base any theory off of at this point. If tomorrow comes and something happens to make the theory more reasonable, then I'll bring it up again.

Why would you think it strange for me to come up with the theory? I was thinking "If Musher is scum, why would he think he could get away with that claim..."
My first thought was 'maybe he doesn't care to get away with it if he can reveal the real doctor.' Second thought was 'maybe he knows something we don't about roles.'

[HackerHuck]

I find it very interesting how some people find Musher's claim perfect and others find it faulty.

When I say that your efforts are making me feel more like his claim is rubbish, it's because no one has come out with a good reason for why his claim is good. Using the word physician makes it believable? Having an obscure background proves it's a real claim? Putting it out piecemeal is a sign of truthfulness? Show me perfect flavor please! And now Musher himself can't even remember how he claimed. He said healer. Or was it doctor? Maybe it was medical specialist?

Come on now, it's time to drop the hammer.

[hasdgfas]

And now Musher himself can't even remember how he claimed. He said healer. Or was it doctor? Maybe it was medical specialist?

Come on now, it's time to drop the hammer.

:goodposting:

[lord_hur]

And now Musher himself can't even remember how he claimed. He said healer. Or was it doctor? Maybe it was medical specialist?

Come on now, it's time to drop the hammer.

Ahaha, I just finished a post in a newbie game I'm IC in, and I'll just copy and paste part of it here, as it perfectly applies :

Oh yes, I'd like to give an extra piece of advice on something that hurt town in most of the games I played as newbie. Bad play does not necessarily mean the person is scum. Go beyond the mistakes and try to dertermine what motivation this person, if he's scum, could have for doing this, and only vote if you can see one.

This mistake illustrates my reasoning on Musher333 well, and HackerHuck's reaction comforts me in my vote.

[SeraphicMirth]

lord_hur - The only problem is that sometimes mistakes are made by scum and their mistakes mean a lot more to us. Also, some scum players aren't quite so skilled to calculate a real good plan/motivation (i.e. it's possible they get backed into a corner, don't know what to say to defend [end up saying dumb things], etc.) So, the trick is really discerning town mistake vs scum mistake, and that's a bit more nuanced.

RE: HackerHuck - Well, what is a good claim? All in one post vs. not all in one post? That's basically the only argument I see. And that he's being general in describing his role. I mean, I suppose it's a scum tell, but it's not a strong one. I guess that's the problem I'm having. I really would rather not hang a doc and I'm worried that if his claim is real, scum are pushing for it. So, I don't know how to take this.

My feel is that the game should move away from Musher for now, and lynch someone else who seems suspicious (because, if Musher is scum, he isn't the only one; if he's not, then we need to be looking at other players anyway) and not take the chance with Musher right now since he might possibly be the doc.

However, I feel stuck in the middle because many people are like "Wah, games are too slow, this sucks" and stop coming if we don't gain momentum one way or the other. I think others feel this way at times (I know I've made decisions purely on this before) and I think scum take advantage of it.

So, we all have to decide which is more important...lynching someone now who is possibly pro-town (also possibly scum and also how strongly we think he is scum vs possibly losing the doc role) or taking time to explore other scum options (and then I get into the thinking of "well what if every person we try to lynch claims?" and then I go around in circles in my head again, I dunno).

BTW, the deadline IS extendable, if we all so choose.


Right now, I feel that the possibility of Musher being doc is somewhat equal to his being scum (somewhat..I still feel a stronger tug towards the scum side of the fence), but I don't know if the risk is worth it. Maybe I'm making the doc out to be more important than they are. I dunno. :-/ Still mulling this over. So, no hammer from me still.

[lord_hur]

lord_hur - The only problem is that sometimes mistakes are made by scum and their mistakes mean a lot more to us. Also, some scum players aren't quite so skilled to calculate a real good plan/motivation (i.e. it's possible they get backed into a corner, don't know what to say to defend [end up saying dumb things], etc.) So, the trick is really discerning town mistake vs scum mistake, and that's a bit more nuanced.

I agree that "slips" are usually a fair scumtell, what I said wasn't accurate (way to go for an IC ><). But this particular mistake doesn't tell me anything like this. I can see no other explanation for it than pure mistake.

But that's only me, go on and find one.

People, don't vote just because of the mistake, as HackerHuck and hasdgfas suggested.

[lord_hur]

And that he's being general in describing his role. I mean, I suppose it's a scum tell, but it's not a strong one. I guess that's the problem I'm having.

I can't really see what you mean here. What would you be expecting in a good claim, regarding this point ? If he's being general, can't you ask him precisions ?

(and then I get into the thinking of "well what if every person we try to lynch claims?" and then I go around in circles in my head again, I dunno).

Still, accusation is about the only tool town has. So (and this is a general call) take up that gun and aim it at someone, dammit.

I really feel there is not enough risks taken in this game. Could everyone clearly say who they are suspecting and why ?

[Mr Stoofer]

This debate over Musher333's claim is fascinating, but at the end of the day it tells us nothing. The fact that his flavour ("physician") is good, tells us nothing. He could be Scum who learns the roles of dead players (not uncommon, see Mafia 45 for an example) or he could have independently thought of this. I don't know why you are all discounting this -- it seems one obvious flavour, and it was his second guess anyway (he started by saying "doctor").

We have

a lot

more informaton on Musher333 than just his claim. Why are you guys ignoring that?

Right now, I feel that the possibility of Musher being doc is somewhat equal to his being scum (somewhat..I still feel a stronger tug towards the scum side of the fence)

If you think you are going to find someone else who you think is more than 50% likely to be Scum... good luck.

[strife220]

Mr Stoofer's argument to why he should still be lynched is good.

Hacker's argument on why the claim sucks is terrible.

SeraphicMirth's argument why he shouldn't be lynched is good, except for the end. If you're 50% confident he's scum, 50% confident he's the doc, those are good odds for town.

There hasn't been enough said from Musher himself lately.

It's been I think 5 pages since a vote count.

Mod

Can we get a vote count, and if the majority agrees, is extending the deadline an option?

[springlullaby]

This debate over Musher333's claim is fascinating, but at the end of the day it tells us nothing. The fact that his flavour ("physician") is good, tells us nothing. He could be Scum who learns the roles of dead players (not uncommon, see Mafia 45 for an example) or he could have independently thought of this. I don't know why you are all discounting this -- it seems one obvious flavour, and it was his second guess anyway (he started by saying "doctor").

We have

a lot

more informaton on Musher333 than just his claim. Why are you guys ignoring that?

Right now, I feel that the possibility of Musher being doc is somewhat equal to his being scum (somewhat..I still feel a stronger tug towards the scum side of the fence)

If you think you are going to find someone else who you think is more than 50% likely to be Scum... good luck.

I'm not liking the single mindedness here, nor from you nor from HackerHuck or hasfdgas, the problem with the Musher case is that his playing style does sucks naturally and that he has claimed doc.

Right now, I oppose a Musher lynch, and I'm for a deadline extension.

[springlullaby]

I'm going on holidays the 20th, don't know if I'll have internet access. May or may not need a replacement. Notifying you in case I dissapear.

[lord_hur]

I'm not liking the single mindedness here, nor from you nor from HackerHuck or hasfdgas

Yes, this stroke me as odd too. They do not even consider that they could be wrong, or the consequences of it. They just want Musher333 dead, period.

I'm for an extension, of course.

[springlullaby]

Man, why is that everytime you post you ring my scumdar. I'm so not liking your 360 change of attitude toward me considering how you appeared to be upset by me not long ago.

You said you had something on Musher's claim that made you think it was maybe genuine, what is it I want you say.

[lord_hur]

Man, why is that everytime you post you ring my scumdar. I'm so not liking your 360 change of attitude toward me considering how you appeared to be upset by me not long ago.

Strange, I had the same impression about you. I was seriously surprised about you agreeing with me, after you tried to bring me down so hard, and was wondering about this... 180 change of attitude (360=no change of direction...), and actually suspected you a bit for it.

Anyway, I really hate how you play. I have the distinct feeling that your only objective is to make my life miserable.

[lord_hur]

You said you had something on Musher's claim that made you think it was maybe genuine, what is it I want you say.

Is this an actual question ? (god I hope not, after everything I said on the subject) Is it even a sentence ?

[springlullaby]

this... 180 change of attitude (360=no change of direction...)

Only in arcdegree wiseass.

Is this an actual question ? (god I hope not, after everything I said on the subject) Is it even a sentence ?

You said that you wanted to say, so what's the matter?

Tell you what, I post a ciphered message with the reason I think Musher's claim may be genuine, then you post yours and I post the cipher.

Of course all this may actually means nothing, but to me it will make clear if you actually have a reason to not support the musher lynch, and not just hinting at thin air to prevent a buddy lynch.

How about that?

[springlullaby]

if the mod allows it of course.

[lord_hur]

Is this an actual question ? (god I hope not, after everything I said on the subject) Is it even a sentence ?

You said that you wanted to say, so what's the matter?

Tell you what, I post a ciphered message with the reason I think Musher's claim may be genuine, then you post yours and I post the cipher.

Of course all this may actually means nothing, but to me it will make clear if you actually have a reason to not support the musher lynch, and not just hinting at thin air to prevent a buddy lynch.

How about that?

You're thick. I just said I didn't understand what you said.

Ciphering isn't needed. I believe everything I wanted to say on the matter, had been said either by me or by strife220 before I explained myself.

[Singing Librarian]

I support a deadline extension, though I'm not really sure if it would help matters very much. From the look of things, we could just spend another week debating musher's claim.

The claim is not what I find scummy about him, it's everything *before* the claim.

[Mr Stoofer]

You call it "single minded". But there is only a single player here that I think we should lynch today. If you want to post a detailed case on anyone else, I'll consider it carefully.

[springlullaby]

You're thick. I just said I didn't understand what you said.

Are you serious?

Is this an actual question ? (god I hope not, after everything I said on the subject) Is it even a sentence ?

I read the 'god I hope not' part as suggestive of you having made some kind of sense out of my question, and only taking the mickey out of my grammar. Why would you lie on something like that?

I tend to believe his claim (about 70% sure).

Not giving any reasons yet.

I was referring to this, have you given all your reasons yet?

[undo]

Not voting

: Musher333, springlullaby, SeraphicMirth

With 9 alive, it's

5 to lynch

Since springlullaby is going for holidays on the 20th, I am willing to extend the deadline to June 21. Is anyone against this?

[hasdgfas]

The claim is not what I find scummy about him, it's everything *before* the claim.

Exactly. People seem to be forgetting that this isn't just about claims. You have to look at everything, not just the claim. Even if it's a believable claim, that doesn't mean he's not scum. Look at everything that's been said about him, people, and then try to tell us that his claim overrides all that.