. I even already made an account for it, just Ether needs to announce it I think ;P. 
Guardian introduces himself to the rest of you, makes a few accusations, you know. Just as he's settled in, a voice yowls, "WAIT!" Zindaras, theDay 4, Votecount 3 wrote:8 Unvote (Andycyca, eldarad, hasdgfas, Mizzy, Skruffs, Tiger Twins, Y, Yosarian2)
8 alive; 5 to lynch.
Eh. I'm basically assuming Skruffs is town at this point; he was the first person to mention items, which has since been verified by others, and his claim just makes a lot of sense and seems to be both strong and to not fit what I would expect a scum to claim in a lynch or lose situation (I mean, he basically just came out and claimed an innocent on the guy he'd been trying hardest to attack for most of the game; not at all the kind of fake-claim I'd expect a scum to make here). Combined with the fact he hasn't really seemed scummy to me all game, I'd be very, very surprised if Skruffs flips scum.Guardian wrote: Although, yos, what about say, any three of andy, Y, Skruffs, hasdgfas. Would that not be a possible group?
Skruffs and Y and hasd both seem pretty town to me though
Yos has been playing like pure town all game. He's been validly scumhunting, and he has been advocating all pro-town moves. I'd bet my right boob that he's pro-town at this point, and considering how much I need said boob these days, that should say something.Skruffs wrote:Mizzy: Why is Yos obvtown?
Why do you need ot get a better feel on Y? He was a major part of yesterday's discussions.
I think there's a very high chance there's a 3 man scumgroup. The odds of there being only 2 bad guys in a non-mountanous mini game seen quite small to me, as do the odds that there's 2 killing scum groups considering the low number of kills we've had so far. I'd say there's probably something like a 95% or better chance that there's a 3 man scum group here. Nothing is ever completly certain in mafia; you take the best theory you can get and run with it.Skruffs wrote:Yos: You find a two man scum group "pretty unlikely", but your form of scum hunting makes your chances of being right 0% if there is one. Why are you willing to take that risk? I've *NEVER* seen you hunt scum like that as town.
Well, you've got to take the possbility of distancing/bussing/ect into account, sure. If you read carefully, though, you can at least sometimes come to the conclusion that distancing/bussing is very unlikely in specific cases.I think your form of scum hunting (IE: it's one big logic puzzle) completely plays into the hands of any scum who have been, oh, say, buddying up to towns or bussing from others through the entire game.
I didn't explain it Yesterday for a reason. And, as I said in response to you, in the absence of pressure I saw no reason to explain it Today.one half of the tiger twins wrote:eldarad you answered 2/3 of my points swimmingly, but if you could go back and look at why you found RS townie and explain that it would be great.
Exactly right.Y wrote:eldarad seems weird to me. He protected RS, who was in fact town, but it seems like his reason was more "I know he's town" than "I don't think he's scum".
Okay, now I'm pissed. If you had this information that RS was probably not the scum then why didn't you come forward with it BEFORE we lynched him?eldarad wrote:On Night 2 I received a 'moonshine' - basically a one-shot cop. It allowed me to identify a werewolf. RS is not a werewolf. Although I don't know who - if anyone - gave the item to me, or even whether the scum are werewolves (if they are not, then the item is basically useless.)
I don't want to clear someone who isn't really 'clear' - in the sense that the moonshine detectsSkruffs wrote:Eldarad, why do you need to know who gave you the moonshine before you can use the results of your investigation to clear someone? Wouldn't it be better to out the information, considering you are only a ONE SHOT cop, and thus even if you were killed for clearing RS, you would A) lower the chances of a mislynch and B) the giver would be 'protected' for another night?
That strikes me as the most likely scenario, yes.Also, I received my item last night. For you to receive a "statistic" last night, means there are two 'givers'.
No. I didn't want to find out who it came from, I just wasn't sure of where it came from and, therefore, how much I could trust it.Skruffs wrote:But you were defending him because you thought he was cleared. And instead of pushing htat, you were trying to find out who gave it to you, instead??
Not literallySkruffs wrote:How would the sky come down?
That is crap. Why would you claim cop or one-shot cop when all that happened was you received an item to give you an investigation?eldarad wrote: Plus, in your scenario, things still don't necessarily turn out well.
If I claimed to be cop, I'd be NK'ed, show up in the Night message as a villager and so my 'innocent' on RS looks really odd.
If I claimed to be a one-shot cop, it's not obvious that I would be NK'ed as a one-shot cop who has used his shot is a VT. And I wouldn't even be confirmed until either me or RS died. Which, since the scum have no incentive to kill either of us (since it clears the other), could drag on for a while.
You chose the second option which had already been proved BY ME that it wouldn't work? Sure, I didn't have an item backing me up and all I had was some town tells and instinct about Capri, but I did the same thing you tried and it didn't work. You should have known better.eldarad wrote:This was my issue - it was an all-or-nothing thing. I either came out and watch the sky come down around our ears and hope it would turn out alright, or I could keep quiet and just make it obvious that I didn't like the RS wagon.
I chose the second option.
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