Okay, so I've finished reading.
Don't want to read defense & my descriptions of all the players? Then scroll to the bottom, my suspicions are summarized at the end
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BridgesAndBaloons wrote:Page 19 is wrong. I replaced Mert and crap.
You are replacing Imat. Bad luck, considering how scummy Imat was.
I disagree with that, pretty strongly.
I think Shamrock's leaving is easily explained and very justified -- the mod told him who he was replacing incorrectly, so he spent the huge amount of time and effort it takes to read a 20 page thread and try and figure out who the scum are, *with incorrect knowledge* -- he thought Mert was himself, confirmed town to him, not Imat.
So, he makes this huge case on Imat, and then the mod announces that "oh shit, actually, YOU are Imat". I'd have been pretty pissed and responded in a OMGUSy way had that happened to me; my whole read on the game being wrong and tainted by the mod's error.
The substantive points on Imat.... I am not the most careful reader when I read games.... but honestly what are they, so that I might refute them? Shamrock's case seemed pretty wrong in a few places.
The other concise/concentrated explanation of suspicion of Imat/shamrock that I could find came from B&B's game summary post, from which I see two main points.
Imat is supposedly linked to Coolbot? I can totally see a townie writing that exactly how he wrote that, that seems like an off read to me.
The other major point, that Imat pushed a bad case on Matt_S... well I agree, strongly. I think this is indicative of Imat being dumb, not being scum, and I didn't see in this post or from anyone who made a case that strongly implied that Imat was anything but stupid. Lots of people have been wrongly suspicious of Matt_S in this game (imo, and I am pretty sure Matt_S is town), not sure why Imat specifically is suspicious here.
If there's more on Imat you'd like me to try to address, I'm all ears.
Any votes or suspicion of me because of Shamrock's leaving I don't think is very warranted at all.
Imagine this situation: You offer to replace in a mafia game to help the site out of the goodness of your heart, and are told you are replacing player X and are town. You read the whole game, and after putting a lot of thought into it, decide that player Y is the most likely scum, and decide to make a long detailed case on player Y.
Then the mod tells you you were actually replacing player Y, not player X. Your whole read on the game is messed up, as you thought player X was you, and confirmed as town in your read, and now in fact player Y is you, and confirmed as town in your read.... and you've just made a huge case about how we should be lynching player Y.
That's exactly what happened to Shamrock, and I'm really disappointed in shakaa for letting that happen to a player. I totally excuse Shamrock's subsequent replacing out considering what happened to him. If I just made a case on player Y, I would be totally flummoxed as to how to go back and refute my own arguments. Put yourself in his shoes.
Imagine you'd made a 1000+ word case on someone who you unknowingly were replacing, were then told you were replacing them, and were asked to refute the argument you just spend hours making. That's a horrible situation to be in, and I am not at all disappointed in Shamrock's decision to just quit the game at that point, that's a horrible, horrible situation that shakka let happen.
I certainly hope the wagon on me is not going to escalate because I think it is poorly founded and there are better alternatives. Now, enough of defense, time to describe my thoughts.
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Okay, since we had an SK, we likely have one or two mafia left, a vig of some sort, and maybe one or two other power roles. Obviously, the goal is to lynch a mafioso today.
Khelvaster
is a player who attracted a lot of attention, and strong feelings both ways from me, so I'll start off with him. On the one hand, I really am suspicious of the mass name claim suggestion. I think it is clear Coolbot was told either that claiming certain role names would be OK/not countered (in Coolbot's case a non-fellowship name), or that the townie role PM had no names, or both. If he was told both, Khelvaster could have gotten a safe-claim fellowship role name. If he did get a safe-claim name, that would explain his actions, hoping to claim fellowship and clear himself. I think he's been very off in Matt_S, was wrong to ask for a name claim, and has not really helped the game much.
However, I think it is more likely that Khelvaster is a fellowship power role than scum. Until we've found another mafioso,
I will not entertain suggestions for lynching Khelvaster -- he is just too likely to actually be a power role, and forcing him to claim would be really dumb
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Next,
Matt_S
. From post 15 onwards, I have had a solidly town read on Matt_S all game. Coolbot's actions towards him confirmed this even more, Coolbot didn't look at all like he was trying to distance with Matt_S, he looked like he was trying to mislynch Matt_S. Shakka's misguided removal of Matt_S's post confirms this even further, but I had a pretty strong read on Matt_S at that point.
Of all the players, Matt_S is most likely town to me. I will not entertain notions of lynching him, because we have much better options, and he is veyr likely to be just what he claimed, vanilla town
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destructor
: The main thing for me with destructor was that I didn't see anything he did that was suspicious most of the game. He did lurk more than any remaining player, and that is a point against his credit, but other than that nothing I read convinced me that he was very suspcious.
I don't have a strong town read on him, but I have a complete absence of reason to think he is scum. If you want to convince me otherwise I am open to it, but barring that I will not be voting destructor.
ting =)
: I have had an on and off thought process with ting=) all game. He has made a lot of sense this game, but there is a disturbing interaction with Coolbot day one. Ting =) makes an excellent read on Coolbot day one... but the read is almost too good. He is spot on that Coolbot is scum, and for the right reasons. What really troubles me is that he unvotes and moves on when other options present themselves.
It could be seen like he was planning to bus, but when no one bought into it, he dropped it and moved on. Aside from that, though, he's been pretty spot on in his logic and reads, and seems like a townie. I am unsure about ting=), but I think that there are better targets than him, and while I am open to be convinced otherwise, right now I don't think he should be lynched.
B&B
: This role has been plagued by replacements, and thus I don't have a strong read either way on it. The most I got before B&B was from GSGold, when he voted Khelvaster 64 and unvoted in 85. It seemed like it could have been unsure townie, but could have been scum hoping for a mis-lynch then seeing the tide turning. B&B seems to be actively looking for scum and providing thoughtful analysis, but his insistence that Imat be lynched is troubling because I don't really see much to that.
I am suspicious of this role/player, but definitely not the most suspicious role/player in the game. I look forward to hearing more from B&B.
massive
: Massive first stuck out to me in post 99, which is the scummiest post of the game (and seems to have largely gone unnoticed?) for a number of reasons. He defends khelv for pretty weak reasoning (bad buddying?), then says coolbot is a townie, in comparison to matt_S, trying to confirm coolbot, who turns out to be the scum Godfather! Then, votes matt_S, and while massive is not unique in inexplicably finding matt_S suspicious, doing so in comparison to 'coolbot-town' just smells really bad. Later he gets really annoyed that shakka won't let the town MISLYNCH matt_S, and hops onto the next easy wagon, ejlicko. The first few posts of day 2, massive is quick to mention the scum might have gotten safe claims, getting away from his assertion that coolbot is town earlier. This both shows backtracking to me and possible inside knowledge that the scum did in fact have safe claims in this game.
Massive has gone on to attack Qman with his cries falling on deaf ears, which leads right to my suspicion of Qman...
I think Massive was tied to coolbot, weakly defended khelvaster, and might have had scum-insider information about the setup. I however do not think he should be lynched today, because we should see if he might have been busing with Qman, the person I think is most likely to be scum. His attack on Qman actually really raises my estimation of him in my eyes, because if Qman shows up scum, we should really consider how likely it is that massive was actually busing, or is really just a townie, and we need to look at the above players with new eyes
Qman
: Qman I feel very strongly is scum. Most of Qman's play has been active lurking, in that he kept trying to get us to ignore the LOTR flavor stuff. For better or for worse (well, probably worse) the LOTR flavor is a BIG part of this mini normal game, and ignoring it just won't fly and doesn't help us catch scum. I think Qman wanted to ignore it because he didn't get the original scum role PM, and wanted to move on to things he could talk about safely without incriminating himself.
He easily wagons ejlicko, and most of his other posts are NOT scum hunting, but are instead defenses of people attacking him, OR posts where he basically tells people to ignore the LOTR flavor and stop scum hunting. His argument with massive seems faked too.
Sethaniel replaces in,
Sethaniel wrote:Wow.
Shamrock wrote:
I'm not sure how you expect me to respond to a vote with no case behind it.
This after he had posted a lengthy case explaining why he thought Imat was scum? (one that made some decent points, at that.)
If I'd come in and argued that Qman was scummy, I'd at least
try
to refute my own arguments.
Shamrock and massive look like scum to me. I don't want to put Sham at L-1 though, since it looks like we're still waiting for a few people to check in?
This whole post reeks of scum to me. First off, like I said earlier, this isn't at all realistic. If Seth had replaced Imat instead of SHamrock replacing Imat, come in and made a 1000+ word case against Imat, and then was told that he was really replacing Imat, he'd be flipping a gasket, pissed at the mod, not calmly trying to refute his own points that 24 hours ago he thought were likely valid and then discovered that they were completely invalid because he knew for a fact Imat was town. He's placing an unrealistic and unreasonable burden on Shamrock here, and all in all Shamrock's actions are a horrible reason to find Imat scummy.
Then, he expresses intent to place SHam at -1, but wants to wait until people check in ((and he gets approval for it)). Heaven forbid he put a townie at lynch -1 and attract suspicion for it later!!
Qman actively lurked all game, strayed away from the LOTR stuff that replacing scum would have no info about and avoid like the plague, easily wagoned ejlicko, and did very very little scum hunting. Sethaniel replaces in and his replacement is categorized by a fairly uninspiring defense of Qman's lurking and a very ill conceived and suspicion attack on SHamrock
Matt_S and Khelvaster are VERY likely townie and town power role, respectively. Should NOT be even considered for lynch today.
We probably have 2 scum and maybe 1 (or 2??? that would make 4 if Khelv is a power role...) power roles among {destructor, ting =), B&R, massive, and Sethaniel}. Of those 5 players, I think the last three are the most suspicious, with Qman/Sethaniel being far and above the most suspicious player in the game for the reasons I outlined.
I think very strongly Sethaniel should be the lynch for today, he is by far the best candidate and most likely to be scum.
I welcome any questions you may wish for me to ask, or insights into things I might have missed.
I can't promise I'll be able to explain Imat & Shamrock's thought processes, as I'm not them & I especially don't understand why Imat thought Matt_S was suspicious or why Shamrock thought Imat was suspicious, but depending on the question I might be able to try. Sorry for the huge post, but well, what do you expect with a 24 page thread :P.
vote: Sethaniel
Do not lynch me.
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