Open 65 - Mini Love (Over!) before 578

[eldarad]

More of this weird ABR-Korts interaction...

[Korts]

More of this weird ABR-Korts interaction...

More funny than weird. But I'm biased.

[dahill1]

ok i managed to get free hotel wireless. but what is this??

Well, there's nothing left to do, then.

unvote, vote: Korts

selfvoting in a situation like this is a tremendously stupid thing to do if you are town. no one but scum (besides Jester) would benefit from getting themselves lynched. (that is, if they are about to be lynched, and they don't want to reveal anymore info)

[Sethaniel]

That's twice Korts has self-voted.

[Korts]

That's twice Korts has self-voted.

Three times, actually. I think I randomvoted myself once, too.

[ThAdmiral]

Vote Count:

Korts - 3

(Dahill, Jex, Eldarad)

Dahill - 3

(ABR, Farside, Korts)

Babygirl - 1

(Coron)

Not Voting -

(Kravhen, Silence, Sethaniel)

With 10 alive, it is 6 to lynch.

DEADLINE INITIATED

1st of the 6th at 8 pm AUSTRALIAN eastern standard time (hehe work that one out suckers!)

Another way of looking at it is exactly a week from this post...

[Albert B. Rampage]

That's twice Korts has self-voted.

You must construct additional pylons.

[Korts]

That's twice Korts has self-voted.

You must construct additional pylons.

Pylons?

[silence]

Haven't yet made up my mind whether it's better to lynch a lover or scumhunt between non-lovers today. Was planning to do some probabilistic analysis over all possible scenarios but it turned out to be at little complicated.

Anyway, in both cases, dahill1 should really claim. If he doesn't understand this or is not posting, his partner can also claim.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Help us pressure dahill into claiming.

[dahill1]

Haven't yet made up my mind whether it's better to lynch a lover or scumhunt between non-lovers today. Was planning to do some probabilistic analysis over all possible scenarios but it turned out to be at little complicated.

Anyway, in both cases, dahill1 should really claim. If he doesn't understand this or is not posting, his partner can also claim.

sorry i have limited access until about tuesday.
i guess i see no harm in claiming my partner now..
if you haven't already guessed, it's elderad

[Korts]

eldarad, care to confirm this?

[eldarad]

confirmed

[Korts]

Great. Now silence, Sethaniel and Kravhen please decide whether or not to follow the plan of eliminating the lovers.

[Korts]

Maybe Kravhen need a

prod or replacement

, he hasn't posted on the site for almost two weeks.

[Coron]

Great. Now silence, Sethaniel and Kravhen please decide whether or not to follow the plan of eliminating the lovers.

Why them?

[Korts]

Because they aren't voting anyone.

[Coron]

Because they aren't voting anyone.

And?

[Korts]

Because they aren't voting anyone.

And?

And, shouldn't they?

[Coron]

4 townies
1 mafia
3 lovers
1 treacherous lover
1 doc

This is our current set up.

If we lynch a lover of the scum (50%), scum kill other lover set for a 2 fer 1, but if we have the doc protect one of them that night it brings that probability back to normal, so they'd probably kill the doc.
next day we have
4 townies
1 mafia
2 lovers(confirmed)
We lynch a townie/mafia. If mafia town wins(20% from there 10% over all). 80% chance(40% over all) move on to next day
Mafia kills a lover at night
3 townies
1 mafia
1 lover
Lynch townie/mafia. If mafia town wins (25%, 10% over all). If townie, mafia kills townie, lover dies, gg mafia wins. (75%, 30% overall)
End if we lynch scum set.
If we lynch town set, scum probably still kill doctor, as he's still confirmed, and easy to kill.
4 townies
1 mafia
1 lover
1 tretcherous lover
lynch a lover of the other set, other dies at night, mafia kills a townie.
3 townies
1 mafia
lynch a townie/mafia. Lynch mafia town wins 25%(12.5% overall chance). Lynch town, scum wins 75%(37.5%)

So assuming no reads or anything useful like that town would win 32.5% of the time and scum would win 67.5% of the time.

We hunt from the claimed townies first:
Lynch Townie/mafia 20% mafia town wins(scum kills doc, town kills wrong lover pair, scum kills townie, but there is still 3 town 1 lover and 1 evil lover, so scum still lose), 80% town, move on, mafia kills doc at night

3 townies
1 mafia
3 lovers
1 evil lover
lynch townie/mafia 25% scum(20% overall) 75% town(60% overall)
if scum; lynch a lover set if wrong, the next day there is 2 townies 1 lover 1 evil lover, lynch other lover set, win. 20% overall of town win from here.
If town, scum kills townie,
1 townie
1 mafia
3 lovers
1 evil lover
lynch townie/mafia, 50% scum 50% town. If town, town loses(30% overall), if scum, scum kills townie, lynch lover set 50% scum set, town wins(15%) 50% town set town loses(15%).

Unless I did something wrong, that gives us with random lynching a town win percentage of 55% and a scum win percentage of 45%.

Numbers seem to support hunting among the townie claims first.

PS. If I missed any sort of tactical consideration, please let me know.

[Korts]

I can't really follow matha fter so many shots, but if we lynch all thel overs, won't we have a 4:1 ratio of town:scum day 4?

[Coron]

I can't really follow matha fter so many shots, but if we lynch all thel overs, won't we have a 4:1 ratio of town:scum day 4?

By that time mafia have already killed the doc and one of the townies, making it 3:1 assuming normal mafia kill every nightage.

[Jex]

I'm sorry guys but I have asked for a replacement. I enjoyed playing this game but I recently had a death in the family and am getting replaced in all of my games in order to not drag them down. Good luck to all!

[silence]

I'm sorry guys but I have asked for a replacement. I enjoyed playing this game but I recently had a death in the family and am getting replaced in all of my games in order to not drag them down. Good luck to all!

Sorry to hear about that.

I have been a bit busy and didn't have time to go through Coron's numbers but it seems to me that you omitted the possibility of us killing the confirmed loverpair today and them turning out to contain the treacherous lover (when the other lover pair will remain unknown).

[Sethaniel]

1. Mathy arguments aren't going to convince me of anything. I can't ever follow them, and consequently, I'm never convinced they actually prove what they claim to.

2. I really don't like the idea of policy lynching in general.