California Trilogy - Going to San Francisco (Game Over!)

[NabakovNabakov]

The case against OGML as stated by MBL came down basically to "OGML has done hardly any scumhunting".

Not true. A large portion of my vote (and MBL's case) was based on the contradictions in the scumhunting OGML eventually came back with.

I agree with that; it's one of the reasons I hammered OG

What are the others?

Also, is it really all that surprising that so many people turned on OGML after he made 520? It was an atrocious post. Go back and read it and tell me what you think.

Well Nab, did I stay out of the fight and not give my opinion or did I put forth a strong endorsement? I didnt participate in it, are you reading the thread? I said my piece about OGML, I attacked others who I thought we scummy...I explained why I felt OGML was scummy, but I didnt know his alignment...I felt like I stuck my head out there enough for him...my "strong endorsement" was putting in my two cents into that arguement....please explain how is wasnt.

I am curious, you are obviously wanting to get somewhere with this bogus line of logic...where to? What are you trying to gather with my "lack of getting into the arguement". It is easy to say someone is scummy, but harder to say someone is town...

It's OGML's conflict with MBL that I'm most interested in as that was what really brought about his lynch. Feel free to quote posts in which you reference it. The point I'm trying to make here is that your endorsement of OGML was ineffective and never tried to be effective (at least in my perception), and I see that as a scumtell. However, going back over meta records, I see you were gone for the height of the controversy, so I'm willing to cut a break.

[Xtoxm]

Wtf?

That's how you repay me MS? For defending you? Ohh, thanks!

[Xtoxm]

I think your accused link between me and MBL is completely wrong and flawed btw.

Do you seriously think i'm scum?

[MichelSableheart]

Not true. A large portion of my vote (and MBL's case) was based on the contradictions in the scumhunting OGML eventually came back with.

As far as I can remember, those contradictions were only mentioned by MBL, in a single post. Since you didn't specify which post of MBL you agreed with, I missed that that was the reason. However, a single post of MBL when he was yelling his head of that OGML was scum even before the scumhunting post is not a large part of a case IMO.

What are the others?

Wanting to reach a lynch rather then a condorcet lynch, peer pressure and the belief that non-SF related musicians are antitown.

Also, is it really all that surprising that so many people turned on OGML after he made 520? It was an atrocious post. Go back and read it and tell me what you think.

I wouldn't call that post atrocious, though it isn't perfect either. If OGML at that point in time hadn't been under immense pressure from MBL, I doubt he would have gotten any votes for that post.

The ferocity of MBL's attack is a very good reason for OGML (who knows he is town) to be suspicious of him. His remark about MBL's setup speculation is correct too: if there is a player who chose who to put in the basement, it's likely a player with a bit of info. The most likely player to make that decision is a mafia member, and a mafia member is most likely to place three townies in the basement. If MBL believed his own theory, he would likely have been more careful about attacking OGML, since it would be rather likely that all players in the basement are town.

Nothing wrong with OGML's remark about Xtoxm.

OGML on BBMars is following a bandwagon, not that great.

RogueBen and LML are indeed in direct contradiction, but OGML's explanation of two different possibilities, depending on Xtoxm's alignement is believable. It would have been better if he had remarked it without placing them on his condorcet though.

Nothing wrong with OGML's remarks about Niv or CKD.

[MichelSableheart]

Wtf?

That's how you repay me MS? For defending you? Ohh, thanks!

My goal in this game is to make sure there are no dangers to the town left alive at the end of the game. It isn't helping those people who were kind to me win. Scum do try to buddy up, you know. If I believe you are scum, then the mere fact that you defended me won't make me change my mind.

I think your accused link between me and MBL is completely wrong and flawed btw.

Why? What am I seeing wrong?

Do you seriously think i'm scum?

I think it's quite likely you are scum, yes.

[Xtoxm]

Okay.

I thought you looked like town but that argument against me I didn't like at all...

[MichelSableheart]

No surprise there.

[Xtoxm]

Well i'm tired right now but tomorrow I will try read through your recent comments and decide whether or not to change my mind about you.

[MrBuddyLee]

His remark about MBL's setup speculation is correct too: if there is a player who chose who to put in the basement, it's likely a player with a bit of info. The most likely player to make that decision is a mafia member, and a mafia member is most likely to place three townies in the basement. If MBL believed his own theory, he would likely have been more careful about attacking OGML, since it would be rather likely that all players in the basement are town.

What I've said, or at least what I believe, is that a player is responsible for locking people in the basement. I don't think we have enough info to nail down anyone's alignment yet based on that info.

BUT... we are getting close. And the fact that three of the best players in this game are STILL down there is unsettling. Take a moment to think about what would and wouldn't break the setup in various scenarios.

[MichelSableheart]

Well, the only thing I can think of that would break the setup would be three scum on the same team in the same hidden location together. It would allow them to daytalk, and make them lynch immune. Just like lurking, it would bring them to the middle game unharmed, but unlike lurking, they have the perfect excuse for not posting.

[vollkan]

The question I am asking you is simple: Why did you think the thought processes were pro-town?

Well I don't think I can explain myself much better than I already have on this one. What he said, looked like, to me, and honest thought process connection coming from a pro-town player, not something a scum would do...?

This is going round in circles...

Good. You "call" it "weak" because it "sounds" "like an excuse". Now tell me why.

You said my attack on MBL for lurking was dreadful. I didn't think it was, and this was just following whta others had already said.

Right. So this is not a case of my argument actually being demonstrably weak, so much as you disagreeing without supplying reasons.

He then goes fatalistic.

Yeh, I did. I had a massive wagon forming and pretty much everyone posting was not backing me up, til Pooky sorted it out...

How is that at all scummy?

It suggests you were trying to pull on heartstrings/fear - appeal to emotion.

Scummiest so far, but I am wary of a VI factor operating around Xtoxm. It doesn't acquit him, but it concerns me. 70%

Fall-back when I turn up town.

Or a genuine expression of concern. Truther.

Assuming that my having 50%s is unusual, why is that scummy?

I don't care about the assumption, as town you have opinions of people, it doens't stay nuetral all the time, and you had far too many.

And scum can't express cooked-up suspicions? The argument you make rests on the assumption that scum are inherently more likely than town to have less intense opinions (or, rather, to express less intense opinions). I don't believe that assumption is valid.

I have a lot of people on neutral because that's genuinely how I feel. The consequence of my disdain for gut play may be that I am rather slow-moving, because it takes me a thorough analysis (which, at this unfortunate time of year, is difficult) for me to get a firm read on a player (ie. one that I can be sure is not just my gut fooling me).

I'm kinda confused by the nature of the Xtoxm/Vollkan debate. Its subject matter is ages old, and they both seem to driven by by defensive OMGUS. Reads extremely distancy (perhaps leading back to the Gaspar Theory of Cult Existence)

How is the age of the subject matter at all relevant?
What does "defensive OMGUS" even mean?
Would I be right in presuming that "extremely distancing" means something along the lines of "I can't see this leading to a lynch"?

[NabakovNabakov]

How is the age of the subject matter at all relevant?
What does "defensive OMGUS" even mean?
Would I be right in presuming that "extremely distancing" means something along the lines of "I can't see this leading to a lynch"?

The fact that the subject matter is old simply bears mentioning. Your quoting of Vollkan's old analysis was an almost complete non-sequiter, and you don't usually see reruns like that without good reason.

Defensive OMGUS is more focused on the accusations against you than it is on accusing others.
Defensive OMGUS: "Your vote is bad because of X,Y, and Z, and you're scum"
Offensive OMGUS: "Your vote is bad, and you're scum because of X, Y, and Z"

No, I didn't see that leading anywhere productive. It was an outmoded, halfhearted discussion that could certainly be seen as distancing.

[Xtoxm]

Um yeh, volkan said that you quoted...

[Niv]

Has tunnel visioning worked out so far for you this game?

Yes, focusing on scum has helped me. how bout you?

Doesn’t surprise me that Niv and RogueBen are joining yet another bandwagon...what does surprise me, is Xtoxm is not.

When someone does something unquestionably scummy, generally bandwagons form on them

Niv also plays extremely singleminded. He focused on Xtoxm first, then later has been focused almost solely on pooky.

What's wrong with playing singlemindedly if you are 99.45632% sure that you are correct. if you were certain someone was scum, would you not focus on them?

Well, the only thing I can think of that would break the setup would be three scum on the same team in the same hidden location together. It would allow them to daytalk, and make them lynch immune. Just like lurking, it would bring them to the middle game unharmed, but unlike lurking, they have the perfect excuse for not posting.

What terrible speculation.

[MichelSableheart]

What's wrong with playing singlemindedly if you are 99.45632% sure that you are correct. if you were certain someone was scum, would you not focus on them?

Being singleminded allows a scumplayer to having to comment on his teammates, and on anyone else except the player he focusses on, for that matter. It makes it much more difficult for the town to find connections, and is therefore beneficial for scum to do.

On the other hand, a pro-town player who focusses singlemindedly doesn't pay as much attention to the actions of other players. As a result, other scum players will be unnoticed to him, and be able to influence him heavily when he has to make a late switch to guarantee a lynch. Even if you are certain pooky is scum, you should comment on other players as well.

Well, the only thing I can think of that would break the setup would be three scum on the same team in the same hidden location together. It would allow them to daytalk, and make them lynch immune. Just like lurking, it would bring them to the middle game unharmed, but unlike lurking, they have the perfect excuse for not posting.

What terrible speculation.

MBL asked me to think about what would and wouldn't break the game. I answered with what I believed would break the game. If that is terrible speculation because it's unlikely to happen... Of course it is! I called it gamebreaking for a reason.

[Mr. Grey]

PookyTheMagicalBear has not posted in 72 hours (excluding Sunday) and has received his second strike.

[Glork]

Defensive OMGUS is more focused on the accusations against you than it is on accusing others.
Defensive OMGUS: "Your vote is bad because of X,Y, and Z, and you're scum"
Offensive OMGUS: "Your vote is bad, and you're scum because of X, Y, and Z"

I would call the former "OMGUS" and the latter "typical gameplay."

Repeat after me, children:

"Voting for somebody who voted for you first does not necessarily make your vote OMGUS."

Got it memorized?

[Gaspar]

EBWOP: ^^^^What he said.

<.<

>.>

[Rogueben]

Has tunnel visioning worked out so far for you this game?

Yes, focusing on scum has helped me. how bout you?

I'm not convinced by this at all. Your argument against Pooky is repetitious. Have you actually read my
post 262. Have you considered the responses to his questions?

Posts like

@ pooky, 1 I find you annoying and want you dad. 2 i don't seam to see you as contributing to the game

Pooky: whaty have yo contributed in your oponion to the game

Hi pooky, think you're gonna contrbute any time soon?

think that continusally asking questions and not posting content is helpful?

Are you scum?

Are you going to start being helpful?

Should We just lynch you now?

are not really helpful in my opinion. Particularly the post where he mocks Pooky's playstyle. I don't think that is good play at all and Pooky was right to call him out on loaded questions.

His post 655 is also pretty bad in my opinion.

my main problem is the questioning. It makes it look as though you are contributing, but in reality, it appears to me that all you have done this game is post questions, and post suspicions. what i see that as is an excellent way for scum to post allot, while never posting any original thought. it lets you ride bandwagons, and not truly contribute, while never doing anything decidedly scummy. your basically letting everyone else do the work.

I've seen Pooky play in a similar fashion as town. It is an awful way to play the game, for exactly the reasons you identify, but he seems to think it acceptable.

does having see him play this way as town in the past make him town? I do not see how having played like this before as town makes him any more likley town, or the playstyle any less scummy.

If someone has a meta of acting a particular way as town then at best it makes that play style a null-tell if not a town tell. That's why calling him scum for this is not really valid.

Having read through all this I think the right move is.

Vote: Niv

[Niv]

Being singleminded allows a scumplayer to having to comment on his teammates, and on anyone else except the player he focusses on, for that matter. It makes it much more difficult for the town to find connections, and is therefore beneficial for scum to do.

On the other hand, a pro-town player who focusses singlemindedly doesn't pay as much attention to the actions of other players. As a result, other scum players will be unnoticed to him, and be able to influence him heavily when he has to make a late switch to guarantee a lynch. Even if you are certain pooky is scum, you should comment on other players as well.

I am commenting on other players, I am even voting a player that is not Pooky (you). when i see something i don't like, i call it out, and pooky is definatally something i dont like

Well, the only thing I can think of that would break the setup would be three scum on the same team in the same hidden location together. It would allow them to daytalk, and make them lynch immune. Just like lurking, it would bring them to the middle game unharmed, but unlike lurking, they have the perfect excuse for not posting.

What terrible speculation.

MBL asked me to think about what would and wouldn't break the game. I answered with what I believed would break the game. If that is terrible speculation because it's unlikely to happen... Of course it is! I called it gamebreaking for a reason.

i know you were requested for it, i was just commenting on how terrible that situation would be.

[Mr. Grey]

Deadline:

Approximately 72 hours from this post.

Vote Count:

7 to lynch.

MichelSableheart: 3 (Gaspar, Niv, Thesp)
Niv: 2 (curiouskarmadog, Rogueben)
MrBuddyLee: 1 (MichelSableheart)
vollkan: 1 (Xtoxm)

Current Condorcet Winner:

None. Current Smith Set: curiouskarmadog, destructor, Gaspar, MichelSableheart, MrBuddyLee, NabakovNabakov, Niv, PookyTheMagicalBear, Rogueben, Thesp, vollkan, Xtoxm

To view the complete table of pairwise results, put this information in this form.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

PRS LLC Official Ratings:

Sell Now:
None

Sell+:
Thesp, BBMars

Sell:
RogueBen, Gaspar, NabNab

Hold:
Destructor

Hold+:
SensF, Michael Sableheart, Vollkan

Buy:
Niv

Buy+:
Xtoxm

Unrated:
Rest

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

First off to Thesp, I do believe a No-Lynch is worse than a lynch of a protown player at that juncture in that situation.

To explain my Niv rating:

I find it difficult to believe he doesn't truly believe that I am scum(which is something that would be hard for him to truly believe if he were indeed scum)

The sheer vehemence and venom in the posting he's directed towards me in this game makes me believe that he passionately believes that I am indeed scum.

Something that I just can't see Niv doing.(I'm not saying a talented scumbag with a keen sense of what a town might think couldn't come up with the gambit, I'm saying I don't think Niv could come up with such a gambit)

The reason I share my reason for this ranking is because I believe that enough discussion has occured about Niv's scum-ness for me to insert my opinion into the discussion without unduly influencing other players as well as because I believe enough players are currently thrown off by Niv's play that such reasoning could be helpful to the town.

To further explain the reasons I am not sharing reasoning:

I expect everyone else to have some idea of a player's scuminess, I expect your initial reaction upon seeing someone rated as a Hold or Buy to be either agreeing with my rating, or disagreeing with my rating but based on your own reasons.

For example if I rate Thesp at Sell+, and you think I have no reason to put him at Sell+, you'd have to first look at all the relevant evidence(what has Thesp done? Why might Pooky put him at Sell+?)

If you then come to the conclusion that Thesp is actually much more likely to be town, then we can have a discussion as to what the reasons are on both of our sides and come to a conclusion.

But for me to insert reasoning into my original post would decrease your incentive to come to your own conclusion.

If you want to figure out of Player A is scum, and Player B posts a huge well documented Case on Player A with lots of points and well written reasons and all sorts of amazing analysis on why player A is scum, would you really read that and then go through the hassle of looking at Player A's actual play? odds are at that point you just go along and skip the whole doing your own analysis thing because everything looks good.

I don't want people to look at my reasoning/analysis and going, yup i agree with Pooky.

I want people to come up with their own analysis and reasoning on a player's play and then if our analyses disagree then we can pull out our reasoning and have a healthy debate.

Even if I was 99% sure a player is scum, I'd still want to have that debate rather than railroad people into lynching him because I could very well be wrong and I'd rather have people coming up with their own reasoning as to what alignment a player is than borrowing my faulty reasoning and coming up with the same conclusion as I have.

[Mr. Grey]

The morning scene has been added. Apologies for the delay.

[curiouskarmadog]

It's interesting that your suspicions are almost exactly the opposite as mine, yet I feel a relative protown air coming from you as well, CKD.

Why?

Because calling MBL's case against OGML "very good and valid" seems like a stretch to me
If I reread the OGML bandwagon yesterday, I find it extremely worrying how many people follow MBL without any reasons of their own: Gaspar votes OGML without giving reasons, NN agrees with MBL about OGML's scumhunting and votes, Niv quotes a post with his vote, but never explains what he dislikes about it, Pooky mentions a blatant bandwagon jump as his reason, Rogueben is convinced by MBL's post #525 and Xtoxm votes "because BBMars' bandwagon is dead". Now MBL points out a single post from me, and RogueBen and Niv immediately vote on it. I seriously dislike how MBL is leading this town around.

Well that is great that you say that today, but where were comments like this yesterday as you were jumping on the bandwagon? This post is full of ugh.

That being said, I would like MBL to address the part about Niv and Rogue following his direction.

The point I'm trying to make here is that your endorsement of OGML was ineffective and never tried to be effective (at least in my perception), and I see that as a scumtell. However, going back over meta records, I see you were gone for the height of the controversy, so I'm willing to cut a break.

AGAIN, I said my peace about OGML. No need to cut me a break though. If I had been here, I cant say that I would have been "effective" at defending him because (and I feel like I am saying this over and over again) I wasnt 100% sure that OGML WAS town. It was just a vibe and my vote reflexed that.

Question though Nab, explain to me how one is “effective” in terms of endorsements. Also, explain to me why you deem it a scum tell when someone is not “effectively” endorsing someone that they are not 100% sure about. What would your opinion have been of me today if he would have flipped scum (excluding the fact that both of us were in the basement).

Has tunnel visioning worked out so far for you this game?

Yes, focusing on scum has helped me. how bout you?

LOL, that is why my vote is on you, Senior Slip up.….riddle me this, am I “focusing on scum” right now?