To begin with, a quick note on the Spacecase wagon. Since we have two left, the most likely configuration, imho, is one on and one off. The potential reward for scum of getting SC to night, where he was likely to be investigated, was huge. See my play in Mafia 50: ready salted,where I tie myself far too close to YogurtBandit, who had a powerful scum role, but was playing like a complete tool.
Therefore, there is likely to be at least one scum off the wagon- unsure where the other would be.
So I'll start with those not voting SC at all:
Wesaq/dahill:
Wesaq didn't do too much.
dahill's entrance I found questionable, as noted before: he seemed to think Jesse had been caught in a lie, and yet only FoSed him because 'Justin musta had some reason.'
Thinks SC/Phate are most suspicious
dahill1 wrote:...but not if the other cop doesn't suspect him
and also imagine if i did vote for jesse. everyone would have gone after me for voting the cop (after he claimed).
This post still makes my head hurt. For starters, it involves an explanation of not doing something because it would get him votes. Secondly. it still doesn't explain why Justin's thoughts were at all relevant if you think someone was caught in a lie.
dahill1 wrote:i wasn't using it as a second argument, i'm just saying it's possible that SC could not be lynched if something suspicious turns up.
Distancing whilst keeping options open...?
dahill1 wrote:
you're right we should focus attention where necessary, but i think right now that spacecase probably will be scum, and my only other suspicion is phate. we should lynch either phate or spacecase, and then depending on their role, look back on connections, etc.
@Dahill: care to do so, then?
dahill1 wrote:phate is starting to look like a good vote for me, if the SC wagon is slowing down
i'm also sort of getting cold feet about SC and the two people voting for phate so far are the cop and confirmed townie
As before, SC appeals to authority 'the two people voting Phate are the cop and the 'confirmed townie.'
The interesting thing here is that dahill looks scummy at this point in the game, but it's in a way that appears to be incompatible with spacecase-scum. It looks like dahill is scummily going after spacecase with bad arguments. It's quite some achievement, actually, to go from looking like you're scum railroading someone to look like a potential buddy in the course of a day.
Then the infamous 'SC wagon is slowing' vote, which was pretty brazen, since it was only a short time since he'd been put at L-1.
dahill1 wrote:Shteven wrote:Little point in lynching a claimed doctor. I'll go back to spacecase then.
Unvote: Phate, Vote: Spacecase
unvote
but i'm a little unsure about voting SC again with all of these new suspects
Let's put this in context. dahill unvoted SC in the first place because the wagon was 'slowing' and he had phate and SC close to each other in his scum rankings. Now Phate claims doc, dahill says that new leads have come up which mean he's unsure about going back to SC- and shortly after, he goes to Rigel (accusing him of being overdefensive, my opinion on which should be obvious). This to me is the biggest point against dahill. As soon as one counterwagon becomes untenable, whoops, what should happen but a new suspect come along to give an excuse not to vote spacecase.
dahill1 wrote:i would vote SC but only if i know he's definitely going to be lynched
also, i'd probably be pegged as wishy washy and scummy if i switched my vote now
Words fail me with regard to the first part of this, tbh. The second is another 'i can't do this because it'll look scummy.'
dahill1 wrote:
also, IMO the case against Rigel is better than SC's
The case against Rigel is now BETTER than on SC?
This, imho, is extremely plausible newbie scum behaviour. Bus your partner until he's on the brink, unvote based on a crap reason, go after another player, and then scrabble around for an excuse to vote someone else when your intended victim claimed doc. It could easily have worked, too, given that I think Rigel would probably have ended up dead had SC not disappeared and turned up to vote to save himself. I would be entirely comfortable with a dahill lynch.
SSF/PDNE/LML/armlx
SSF attacks Jesse-cop day one, but I can't really blame him. His arguments are decent.
SSF is one of the pushers of the Kab wagon. Spends a lot of time talking about game theory.
Nothing in SSF's play gives me a strong read either way.
Perfection says nothing of note.
LML makes some decent observations about farside.
Plays up the likelihood of the 'clearing play-' I really don't think it's that likely.
So he makes a good-ish case on farside, then jumps off onto Rigel because Rigel defends farside.
Major pusher of the Rigel wagon. Says almost sweet FA about Spacecase.
Verdict
: There are certainly things that could be construed as scummy here, but I'm getting a 'genuine conviction' vibe. The case against him comes down to 'mistrust of Jesse/Cipher' and pushing the Rigel wagon. However, bear in mind the Rigel wagon is largely his doing- there were other, more viable counterwagons, and he wouldn't have to do the spadework himself on those. I don't think he's today's lynch.
OMAN
Let me start by saying he needs replacement. (I replaced him in another game over a week ago).
Oman wrote:
Mighty coincidental, I mean, I certainly am not holding the fact that Jessie survived against him/her, as Fonz said , lotsa possible docs here.
FoS: Phate
for that, and
IGMEOY: Jessie
for that conicendence.
.
I'm not sure what Oman's implying here: it sounds a lot like he's FOSing phate for suggesting that it might be suspicious that Jessie survives, and then IGMEOY's Jesse himself, for 'that coincidence.' Now, he might be referring to the coincidence of investigating the dead player- but it sounds more like he's flat-out contradicting himself, trying to have his cake and eat it by accusing Jesse, and Phate for accusing Jesse.
Oman wrote:
I'm going to upgrade my fos to a
Vote Phate
Mostly for his terrible vote on me (no, this is not OMGUS, he voted me for a really poor reason).
The question here is whether Oman would have voted Phate for voting anyone ELSE for that 'terrible reason.' OMGUS is inherently unprovable. It was, to be fair, a pretty bad reason, but I'm not sure if it was voteworthy.
Five straight filler posts have the alarm bells ringing.
Oman wrote:
I am against the connection between Kabenon and vollkan, I myself have versed Vollkan as scum (he shot himself). And he is a DANGEROUS scum player, not only can he hide well, the sheer weight of his words convinces a lot of players.
This somewhat gives me the impression of trying to convince an SK to off vollkan. Makes Oman more likely to be scum in my eyes, and less likely to be SK, fwiw. In fact, that entire post is horrible. Votes Kab based on someone else's reasoning, gets arsey with me asking him to explain what he meant in a previous post i found confusing, and then says the bit above.
Oman wrote:Wow.
So thats one cop.
I'm starting to doubt our previous cop's truthery.
Scummy, floats the idea to see if anyone bites.
Oman wrote:I don't think hammering that last wagon is a huge scumtell, Kab was crying for it, and he would've been deadlined anyway.
Initially defends SC (and somewhat strawmans the case against him...0
Jumps on SC for lurking.
Oman wrote:I'm with farside, its not growing too fast at all.
Defends the wagon. Oman gets some townpoints here, since 'growing too fast' usually = scum defending buddy on the quiet.
Another cake/eating juxtaposition where he says in one post that MCD/SC look like buddies, and the next where he says:
Oman wrote:
That was obviously a joke. Now, I'm not OMGUSing him. I'm simply saying that last line looks like scum. The thing is, it only holds if Spacecase turns up town, so I promise you, if he comes up town, MCD gets a vote. If he comes up scum...I'll look elsewhere.
Oman wrote:Wagon slowing.
Makes me wonder.
I might unvote.
Oman has previously attacked the idea of a connection between wagon speed and innocence/guilt of its target.
Oman wrote:Rigel wrote:the slowing wagon makes him think that Spacecase is town and so he might unvote. But he never comes out and says this.
Meh. I assumed you guys were smart enough to realise that I don't really unvote people I think are scum.
Then says he didn't really mean it...
Oman wrote:I haven't really been reading Rigel heavily. I'm on my mobile so I won't be reading. if anyone doesn't mind showing me why they think he is town/scum, I would love to read it over the next few days.
This is on a player HE'S ALREADY VOTING.
Little content, switching to save the GF, and clear contradictions amount to a
Vote: Oman
.
Next up, the uninvestigated non-SC defenders.
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