Mini 581 - Andy's Death - Over

[goborage]

I'm ok with doing Ythill's idea: not lynching the FBI and the investigated. If everyone agrees then the potential lynch candidates are myself, Dave, Ythill, and Sethaniel.

I'm leaning towards Dave being the SK but TBH I don't have a lot to go on.

[JDodge]

Unless we get a counter-claim (which we shouldn't), the SK suspects have now been narrowed down to Dave, gob, Seth, and myself.

Unvote, vote: Ythill

No legitimate reason to clear me.

now, demonstrate a clear link between Dave and Seth. Go go go.

Good god i am dense.

Unvote

Leaning heavily towards gob over Ythill over Dave.

[goborage]

Dave's playstyle would be counter-productive to SK.

Explain please.

Since cam is town and I still believe JD is town, it comes down to which of the SK suspects I think is acting more like mafia and my pick would have to be Seth. Which means gob is the SK. Interesting little preemptive defense in #319, huh?

vote: goborage

What constitutes "more like mafia"? Your read on 319 is pure WIFOM - it could just as easily have been a pro-town move. The fact that you even put that out there makes me suspicious of you.

[Ythill]

Explain please.

Already have. SK must hunt until one scum is dead. Dave is not hunting. Dave is mafia and therefore not the SK.

What constitutes "more like mafia"?

Hunting less, positioning more. Being more reactive than proactive. You know, being scummy. I'd look back and put together the quotes except I'm advocating for

not hanging

Seth today.

Your read on 319 is pure WIFOM - it could just as easily have been a pro-town move.

Yes, it could have but it was not. My belief that you are the SK is not based on #319 at all. My belief that #319 was a preemptive defense is based entirely on you being the SK. That's not WIFOM.

Another thing that is not WIFOM: you were the one person to explicitly stall the claim other than the FBI, and you did so by advocating a straight scum lynch when it is clearly in the town's best interests to hang the SK today.

I

could

be wrong. I seriously doubt I'm wrong about Dave. However, there is the

chance

that JD is mafia, you are town, and Seth is the SK. I suppose, by that reckoning, it might be better to hang Seth today (because we hit scum by either scenario) but I'd like to talk about lynching you first because, fact is, I think I'm right about JD.

[Andycyca]

Vote Count:

goborage - 1 (Ythill)

Not voting (5): goborage, Dave, Sethaniel, camisade, JDodge

4 to lynch.

---

Strike count

[mrow]Player[col]Strikes camisade[col] Dave[col] goborage[col] JDodge[col]X Sethaniel[col]X Ythill[col]

[Ythill]

now, demonstrate a clear link between Dave and Seth.

Seth is silent during the early attacks on Dave.

#140 starts out by implying that Dave thinks high-activity is pro town. Then he gets to Seth and reads him as low-activity and therefore neutral. Then he says that too much activity is anti-town. Huh? His opinion pivots clearly on the "Seth" entry.

Cam and gob both jumped on me for making that reaching attack against Dave D1. JD was preoccupied with the VC and avinas was absent. Seth is the only one who posted support for the case and he didn't question my motives at all. Why not? The case wasn't very strong.

Dave only mentions Seth twice more and it's for low activity. Likewise, Seth only mentions Dave's low activity in the handful of other references he makes.

I don't know if it's "a clear link" but it's suggestive. I normally don't like to persue this sort of evidence unless one party is proven scum; too much confirmation bias.

Somebody else should look at evidence suggesting they

are not

scumbuddies.

[goborage]

Explain please.

Already have. SK must hunt until one scum is dead. Dave is not hunting. Dave is mafia and therefore not the SK.

I don't agree with this. Just because Dave isn't hunting doesn't mean he's not SK. In fact it would be a huge inconsistency for him to start when he's been silent for so long. Besides your theory assumes that the SK is making logical plays. I think we've come to the conclusion that Dave is a noob.

Another thing that is not WIFOM: you were the one person to explicitly stall the claim other than the FBI, and you did so by advocating a straight scum lynch when it is clearly in the town's best interests to hang the SK today.

I never advocated a mafia lynch. I completely agree that an SK lynch would be best. Besides if I was SK I wouldn't stall. I'd love to know who the FBI is (Dave agreed pretty fast even though he did not contribute to the meta-discussion at all).

[Ythill]

I think we've come to the conclusion that Dave is a noob.

I still think he could be an alt. Real n00bs tend to say too much, not too little.

I never advocated a mafia lynch.

And I never said you did. You advocated a "straight scum lynch," meaning that you lumped mafia and SK together. You did this both in your original claim plan and again when you said, "My new conclusion is that if you are certain you can hit scum then the FBI claim is bad." You then withdrew your support from the claiming idea shortly after it was shown to be an effective method for hunting the SK alone.

[JDodge]

I think we've come to the conclusion that Dave is a noob.

I still think he could be an alt. Real n00bs tend to say too much, not too little.

I'm pretty sure they don't. I'm going to make an

actual

appeal to authority here and cite my 15 newbie games played and 9 newbie games modded. Noobs have no tendency either way - this sort of thing is based on personality type, not experience.

[Ythill]

Probably just the case in my limited experience then.

[goborage]

@ Dave: You've never voted Avinas. Why did you say you had?

I made a mistake. I have not voted him. Yet my name is on the Voute Count.

Dave's "mistake" was made

before

the incorrect Vote Count was posted, so that's not a valid reason.

I want to hear from Dave and avin on this issue.

I don't think Seth and Dave are scumbuddies partly because of this.

Seth is the only one who posted support for the case and he didn't question my motives at all.

I don't see how this connects Seth with Dave. If anything it connects you and Seth.

You then withdrew your support from the claiming idea shortly after it was shown to be an effective method for hunting the SK alone.

I never withdrew anything. Right from the start I was on the fence with the claim plan. But since you asked everyone to vote and people started claiming, I realized at that point the SK could probably pick out the FBI. I figured we might as well all claim at this point. Anyways just to make it clear, I support the Cam-JD protection idea.

[Ythill]

Dave's "mistake" was made

before

the incorrect Vote Count was posted, so that's not a valid reason.

I want to hear from Dave and avin on this issue.

I don't think Seth and Dave are scumbuddies partly because of this.

Seth is the only one who posted support for the case and he didn't question my motives at all.

I don't see how this connects Seth with Dave. If anything it connects you and Seth.

You seem to be under the impression that scumbuddies will defend each other and provide obvious evidence of their relationship. I don't think that's true. I can only cite my experience here, but mafia more often ignore one another and/or provide weak support to cases against their buddies, in case they are lynched and revealed as scum.

Defending Dave against my weak attack was more likely a town (or SK) tendancy, IMO. It is fitting that a buddy of Dave's would fail to question the case for fear of making a connection, and that he may support that case with a weak attack that points out the obvious.

But let's assume your argument is valid and that Seth and I are scumbuddies. That would mean the SK is either you or Dave and I think it's clear that Dave is not the SK. Furthermore, since Dave is the one who -on his own- seems the most likley to be mafia, it makes sense to me that the SK (you) would want to set him up as the lynch.

I never withdrew anything. Right from the start I was on the fence with the claim plan.

You were the first to bring up the D2 FBI claim. In #285, you compare three scenarios. You find two of those scenarios more favorable for town if the FBI claims. One you find less favorable but unlikely to happen. You

do

claim to be on the fence but the slant of your opinion is apparent, and your angle is that the claim will help us find the SK

or

mafia.

In #289, after I've tweaked the claim plan to make it more likely to hit the SK, you post in hindsight to call one scenario worse for town. You explicitly state that your "new conclusion" (implying an old conclusion existed) is that we should only claim as a last resort to a straight scum lynch (implying that the old conclusion was that we should claim sooner).

In #300, you register you vote for claim consensus as "no atm," solidifying your opinion that we should prefer a straight scum lynch over a plan that makes it easier to single out the SK.

So yes, you did withdraw support. You did so when it was pointed out that giving immunity to the FBI's innocent would make us more likely to hang the SK or to neutralize his NK. By your plan, there was a decent chance of us hitting mafia and leaving the SK alive with the FBI's identity revealed, which would be a best-case-scenario for the SK.

[Ythill]

...and stuff.

[goborage]

No. In order for me to withdraw support for something, I would have had to have supported it in the first place. As I said I have been on the fence the entire time. And why is it so impossible for Dave to be SK? I think your views on what an SK can and can't do are too narrow. BTW about the whole Dave = noob thing, why haven't you simply meta'd him? I think his level of experience will come up pretty clear once you do.

[Sethaniel]

Playing the newbie card, feel free to skip this next part: What exactly counts as "scumhunting?" Would someone give me a definition with examples? I think I'm trying to play the game, and in every game I'm in, somebody says I post a lot, but I'm not hunting. Does it have something to do with aggression? As in, instead of phrasing something as a question, state it as an accusation? Or perhaps it has to do with my stylistic liking for words such as "perhaps," "maybe," and "seems?"

Back to the game:

about the whole Dave = noob thing, why haven't you simply meta'd him?

If this is his first game, how would that help?

Regarding the Dave/avinas voting thing: Ythill asked Dave why he said he was voting for Avinas when he wasn't. Dave replied that the Vote Count was messed up. But the incorrect Vote Count came after Dave and avinas both said Dave was voting avinas.
So, according to Ythill, the town thing to do would have been to ignore the fact that Dave's reply made no sense and focus on the fact that Ythill's Nibbler argument was silly? I didn't "support Ythill's weak case" so much as attack Dave's weak response.

I still think gob is most likely SK.
In his post #21, he puts avinas at L-1 and asks that the hammer be held until avinas has a chance to claim, and again in his #23 he says "there is no rush, I'm willing to wait for a roleclaim." The only claim that can be made in this game is FBI, and at that point in the game, only the SK would have had an interest in outing the FBI.

[JDodge]

I have decided that gob is likely town and Seth is almost certainly town.

This leaves camisade/Ythill/Dave. If gob =/= town then gob = SK.

I'm going to vote for whichever of these three gets a vote first, and no one else.

[Ythill]

Whichever of which three?

@ Seth: IMO scumhunting = anything proactive that leads to catching scum (attacks, questions, pointing out out inconsistancies, setting traps, etc).

[JDodge]

Whichever of which three?

Cease the dumb act. Please.

[goborage]

Back to the game:

about the whole Dave = noob thing, why haven't you simply meta'd him?

If this is his first game, how would that help?

You know people can sign up for more than one game even when they're newbs. How about you actually check his posts?

I still think gob is most likely SK.
In his post #21, he puts avinas at L-1 and asks that the hammer be held until avinas has a chance to claim, and again in his #23 he says "there is no rush, I'm willing to wait for a roleclaim." The only claim that can be made in this game is FBI, and at that point in the game, only the SK would have had an interest in outing the FBI.

Asking for a roleclaim is a null-tell. Dave agreed to my request as well, does that make him the second SK?

[goborage]

I have decided that gob is likely town and Seth is almost certainly town.

This leaves camisade/Ythill/Dave. If gob =/= town then gob = SK.

I'm going to vote for whichever of these three gets a vote first, and no one else.

Really? You would vote for camisade if I did it first?

[JDodge]

I have decided that gob is likely town and Seth is almost certainly town.

This leaves camisade/Ythill/Dave. If gob =/= town then gob = SK.

I'm going to vote for whichever of these three gets a vote first, and no one else.

Really? You would vote for camisade if I did it first?

Yes. Same for Ythill or Dave.

[Ythill]

Whichever of which three?

Cease the dumb act. Please.

It's not a dumb act. Look at what you said...

This leaves (1)camisade/(2)Ythill/(3)Dave. If (4)gob =/= town then gob = SK.

I'm going to vote for whichever of these three gets a vote first, and no one else.

That's four, and one of the first three is the FBI. I was wondering if you meant me, Dave, & gob or me, Dave, and cam. So, whichever of which three?

Assuming, from your last post, that it's the latter... Why don't you believe cam's claim?

[JDodge]

Whichever of which three?

Cease the dumb act. Please.

It's not a dumb act. Look at what you said...

This leaves (1)camisade/(2)Ythill/(3)Dave. If (4)gob =/= town then gob = SK.

I'm going to vote for whichever of these three gets a vote first, and no one else.

That's four, and one of the first three is the FBI. I was wondering if you meant me, Dave, & gob or me, Dave, and cam. So, whichever of which three?

Assuming, from your last post, that it's the latter... Why don't you believe cam's claim?

Because I keep forgetting its existance.

This puts me in a pickle then.

[Ythill]

Quite.

Anyway... I am still of the belief that our set-up fits one of two patterns:

(1) gob = SK; Seth + Dave = mafia
(2) Seth = SK; Dave + JD = mafia

I think (1) is far more likely but, just in case, Seth might be the best lynch because he is almost certainly scum of some kind.

Yes, I've said this all before but I'm reiterating. Please argue with me about this if you do not agree. Especially cam, whom I trust to be town. I'll try to keep an open mind.

Also, JD, please explain why you are so certain Seth is town. I just don't see it.

[JDodge]

Have you at all read his posts?

If not, read them again in isolation.

Then

you can ask.